Fire Coach Woodson Thread

[AH1971 1,186]

19 minutes ago, iu eyedoc said:

 

So is Reneau going to stagnate on the perimeter or is he going to be Mr Automatic at the rim? Your contradictions confuse me

Hell, If IU had made 8 3's on their 15.5 shot attempts  per game last season, shooting an NCAA record 51% from 3, adding 9 pts per 100 possessions their ORtg would still only have been 43rd and their kenpom would have 20th.

How do you not understand any volume of 35% 3pt shooting is not going to improve the offensive efficiency rating, if anything it will become even worse and the defense will suffer from easy run out buckets.

 

More makes on larger volume=more points per possession. 

Turnovers and tempo also factor into efficiency. 

[AH1971 1,186]

35 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

What are you talking about? Neither Cupps nor Mgbako were even on the team in 2022, and Anthony Leal played 24 minutes all season. If you as a team shoot 38% from 3 then you have enough shooting ability on your team to take more 3s. There was no reason why Miller Kopp shouldn’t have been taking 6-7 3s a game in 2022. 

We have three years of evidence of Mike Woodson not emphasizing the 3 ball but we’re supposed to believe he’s suddenly going to change and IU will be firing away because ‘just trust me bro.’ Like cmon. 

Sorry thought you were talking about last year. Point still remains as a large carry over from this years team played on the 2022 team. Galloway, Johnson, and Kopp etc aren't dynamic shooters. They're catch and shoot, their efficiency goes down the drain off the move or off the bounce. They can't create their own shot. 

[iu eyedoc 1,684]

Just now, AH1971 said:

More makes on more volume=more points per possession. 

No, it literally doesn't and when you factor in the 50% lower rebound chance on 3 pointers it factually decreases the PPP.

[iu eyedoc 1,684]

5 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

Sorry thought you were talking about last year. Point still remains as a large carry over from this years team played on the 2022 team. Galloway, Johnson, and Kopp etc aren't dynamic shooters. They're catch and shoot, their efficiency goes down the drain off the move or off the bounce. They can't create their own shot. 

Is it a good thing for a 27.5% 3 point shooter to find his shot off the bounce?

[AH1971 1,186]

11 minutes ago, iu eyedoc said:

No, it literally doesn't and when you factor in the 50% lower rebound chance on 3 pointers it factually decreases the PPP.

UConn finished #1 in KenPom offensive efficiency this last year with their top 3 volume shooters per game numbers looking like this:

Cam Spencer: 2.5/5.6 44%

Tristen Newton: 1.8/5.5 32%

Alex Karaban: 2.1/5.5 38%

collectively: 6.4/16.6 38.5%

 

It's not far off from MY baseline projections of our expected volume 3 point shooters:

Mgbako: 2.5/6 40%

Carlyle: 2/5.5 36%

Rice: 1.5/5 35%

collectively 6/16.5 36%

[str8baller 4,845]

1 hour ago, Feathery said:

We can agree to disagree. His system gets players open shots. It’s the PLAYERS passing them up.

I always love the blame the players phase of a failed coach’s tenure.  
 

Can you extrapolate on this further?

Kopp averaged more attempted at NW than IU? Why did he suddenly start “passing them up?”  
 

Xavier Johnson averaged more 3s attempted at Pitt than Indiana. Why did he start “passing them up” at IU?  
 

Is it the uniform? Assembly Hall? Don Fisher? Tell me please…what causes IU players to pass up 3’s? 

[AH1971 1,186]

9 minutes ago, iu eyedoc said:

Is it a good thing for a 27.5% 3 point shooter to find his shot off the bounce?

If you are inferring Rice, that's fine if you want to operate on the assumption that his shooting numbers aren't going to improve at all. 

I'm not however. Have seen enough tape to know that his shot is pure and shot at a very successful clip for a first year player for the first 80% of the season before a massive 6-7 game slump that can be explained by a multitude of reasons. 

[AH1971 1,186]

3 minutes ago, str8baller said:

I always love the blame the players phase of a failed coach’s tenure.  
 

Can you extrapolate on this further?

Kopp averaged more attempted at NW than IU? Why did he suddenly start “passing them up?”  
 

Xavier Johnson averaged more 3s attempted at Pitt than Indiana. Why did he start “passing them up” at IU?  
 

Is it the uniform? Assembly Hall? Don Fisher? Tell me please…what causes IU players to pass up 3’s? 

Miller Kopp's per 40 min attempts were very comparable at both schools with the exception of his sophomore year in a season where Northwestern went 8-23. 

Xavier Johnson attempted more 3's at Pitt on teams that went 14-19, 16-17, and 10-12. It's almost as if Xavier Johnson taking more 3 pointers is a detriment to a teams success??? You won't find many Pitt fans who were said to see him go. 

[Golfman25 4,842]

1 hour ago, Feathery said:

Its 3pt ability over system. The players last year passed up a lot of 3’s per game. It wasn’t bc the coaches said don’t shoot it. It was the players passing them up on their own bc they were not comfortable shooting them. 

CJ Gunn says, Hold my Beer.  :)  

[iu eyedoc 1,684]

10 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

UConn finished #1 in KenPom offensive efficiency this last year with their top 3 volume shooters per game numbers looking like this:

Cam Spencer: 2.5/5.6 44%

Tristen Newton: 1.8/5.5 32%

Alex Karaban: 2.1/5.5 38%

collectively: 6.4/16.6 38.5%

 

It's not far off from MY baseline projections of our expected volume 3 point shooters:

Mgbako: 2.5/6 40%

Carlyle: 2/5.5 36%

Rice: 1.5/5 35%

collectively 6/16.5 36%

Great, so if IU can also make huge leaps  to offensive rebound, protect the ball, provide assists and shoot ft like UConn I think you are on to something.

 

Totally plausible.

[iu eyedoc 1,684]

9 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

If you are inferring Rice, that's fine if you want to operate on the assumption that his shooting numbers aren't going to improve at all. 

I'm not however. Have seen enough tape to know that his shot is pure and shot at a very successful clip for a first year player for the first 80% of the season before a massive 6-7 game slump that can be explained by a multitude of reasons. 

No you are assuming every single player takes huge leaps in efficiency and then your math still doesn't add up, so then you pretend math is subjective.

[Golfman25 4,842]

1 hour ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

What are you talking about? Neither Cupps nor Mgbako were even on the team in 2022, and Anthony Leal played 24 minutes all season. If you as a team shoot 38% from 3 then you have enough shooting ability on your team to take more 3s. There was no reason why Miller Kopp shouldn’t have been taking 6-7 3s a game in 2022. 

We have three years of evidence of Mike Woodson not emphasizing the 3 ball but we’re supposed to believe he’s suddenly going to change and IU will be firing away because ‘just trust me bro.’ Like cmon. 

Miller Kopp was the stand in the corner and watch position.  Maybe shoot if they got the ball to you.  Leal played the same position this year.  Nothing is going to change until we find that hump.  

[IU Prof 735]

Last year, per Bart Torvik, the offensive ratings for IU's three primary guards were:

Galloway - 102.2

XJ - 93.6

Cupps - 85.5

Meanwhile, the new additions were:

Rice - 104.8

Carlyle - 91.7

So yes, IU does have some upgrades coming in. And yes, those latter numbers are likely to improve a bit as both players enter year 2.

But I also think that some are overrating the extent of the talent upgrade. Not to mention the fact that they will both be playing in a new system that it is reasonable to fear may not suit their respective skill sets as well.

[Golfman25 4,842]

50 minutes ago, iu eyedoc said:

 

So is Reneau going to stagnate on the perimeter or is he going to be Mr Automatic at the rim? Your contradictions confuse me

Hell, If IU had made 8 3's on their 15.5 shot attempts  per game last season, shooting an NCAA record 51% from 3, adding 9 pts per 100 possessions their ORtg would still only have been 43rd and their kenpom would have 20th.

How do you not understand any volume of 35% 3pt shooting is not going to improve the offensive efficiency rating, if anything it will become even worse and the defense will suffer from easy run out buckets.

 

Didn't Reneau outside shots basically come from transition?  Half court offense he was on the block.  Later in the year, they pulled Ware out a little bit to open things up.  Not sure we'll see that this year.  Maybe?  

[AH1971 1,186]

10 minutes ago, iu eyedoc said:

Great, so if IU can also make huge leaps  to offensive rebound, protect the ball, provide assists and shoot ft like UConn I think you are on to something.

 

Totally plausible.

Projections for Mgbako and Carlyle aren't anything out of the ordinary for an expected sophomore jump based on last years numbers. 

Neither are Rice's either once you stop box score watching. 

[iu eyedoc 1,684]

5 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

Didn't Reneau outside shots basically come from transition?  Half court offense he was on the block.  Later in the year, they pulled Ware out a little bit to open things up.  Not sure we'll see that this year.  Maybe?  

Yeah, don't think anyone is coming out to guard Ballo 15 ft from the basket

[AH1971 1,186]

18 minutes ago, iu eyedoc said:

Great, so if IU can also make huge leaps  to offensive rebound, protect the ball, provide assists and shoot ft like UConn I think you are on to something.

 

Totally plausible.

You've been screaming for the last 24 hours that there's no way to have a top 15 KenPom offense with a team  whose volume 3 point shooters shoot sub 40% from distance.....

You're wrong by a mile. 

 

[str8baller 4,845]

13 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

Miller Kopp's per 40 min attempts were very comparable at both schools with the exception of his sophomore year in a season where Northwestern went 8-23. 

Xavier Johnson attempted more 3's at Pitt on teams that went 14-19, 16-17, and 10-12. It's almost as if Xavier Johnson taking more 3 pointers is a detriment to a teams success??? You won't find many Pitt fans who were said to see him go. 

If it weren’t for the players always screwing up and not shooting enough, or shooting too much, or not making shots, Mike Woodson would never lose a game! Players can be pesky like that. 

[Stuhoo 76,810]

5 minutes ago, iu eyedoc said:

Yeah, don't think anyone is coming out to guard Ballo 15 ft from the basket

In that respect just like Edey. Yet they still kept Edey on the perimeter for most of the start of possessions; he set screens to effect switches and get the defense rotating, and then dove to the rim. To me, that makes sense for Ballo too.

[iu eyedoc 1,684]

1 minute ago, AH1971 said:

Projections for Mgbako and Carlyle aren't anything out of the ordinary for an expected sophomore jump based on last years numbers. 

Neither are Rice's either once you stop box score watching. 

What does that have to do with every other offensive statistic that IU lacked in? The simple fact is your imaginary increase in 3 pt % and volume doesn't even get IU in the top 50 without improvement everywhere else. And  there in lies the rub, whatever marginal improvement in talent $6M bought they are still being coached a bad brand of basketball and that trumps everything else.