Coronavirus and Its Impact

[Brass Cannon 24,271]

2 hours ago, Golfman25 said:

You keep posting crap about gross numbers.  It's completely irrelevant when looking at this statistically.  We have more people.  You have to account for that.  Even with your gross numbers after 20 some days in, we are still a few thousand below Italy.  

You think you know more than the doctors at Johns Hopkins?

[Brass Cannon 24,271]

9 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Yes and no.  Some places started doing that, especially ones where there was a high concentration of people of positive tests and lack of hospital space existed.  Not true in locations where that wasn't the case.  My brother-in-law works at a bank where one of their tellers was in contact with someone that had tested positive.  She has been tested despite a lack of symptoms due to her contact.

In Indiana, the percentage of tests that are positive compared to test given has stayed very constant at around 15%.  If they were only testing people who that were symptomatic or it would affect treatment, that percentage would be rising.

The epicenter of the crisis New York where the Bulk of the cases are adopted this change. That’s going to have a huge impact of testing statistics. 

[JerryYeagley23 3,146]

3 hours ago, Golfman25 said:

You keep posting crap about gross numbers.  It's completely irrelevant when looking at this statistically.  We have more people.  You have to account for that.  Even with your gross numbers after 20 some days in, we are still a few thousand below Italy.  

Two words: exponential growth. 
 

This is a trend-line graphic. What you should be looking at is the trajectory, and slope of the line. Our trend-line is still vertical, which means it doesn’t matter what the number is compare to Italy or Spain or China; what matters is that our doubling rate is not curving, it is vertical. Representing exponential growth. Which means, it doesn’t matter how many cases currently we have compared to our total population. That velocity means it’s still moving with no end in sight. This isn’t a NYC thing. They were the first epicenter. Chicago, New Orleans, Detroit, etc. are next if this growth rate doesn’t slow. And if it stays vertical growing exponentially, our gross numbers and per capita numbers will ALL dwarf those of other countries whose curves and doubling rates are flattening. 
 

Brass Cannon, keep fighting the good fight. I don’t have the time or energy to chime in as often as I’d like. Keep spreading facts and providing perspective. 

[RaceToTheTop 25,031]

1 hour ago, Brass Cannon said:

The epicenter of the crisis New York where the Bulk of the cases are adopted this change. That’s going to have a huge impact of testing statistics. 

I don't disagree.  I think like 40% of the cases are in NYC.  But we also have had places outside of NYC that are now capable of testing that weren't able to do so just a short time ago as more tests get distributed.  My sister works at a hospital in Indiana that just a short time ago did not have the capability of testing.  Now they do.

Just my opinion -- the stopping testing in NYC certainly has caused a drop in the percentage rise of tests -- more so than the increased availability elsewhere -- but not enough to fully account for a drop of the percentage from the mid 40s to the mid 20s.

We are still just at the very beginning of examining if the changes we have been making (quarantines, social distancing, cutting down on large gatherings) are effecting the numbers.  Symptoms first onset from approximately 2 days to 14 days with a median of 5.  I would assume that the point of hospitalization when needed occurs somewhere around a median of 9 days.  Indiana has been on shutdown since Monday I think, so we are only looking at a 5 day period.  Basically anyone who has been hospitalized since then was infected prior to the shutdown.  The real effects probably won't start to really show up until next weekend.  And if the curve isn't flattening, you really have to extend it.  Even it is has started to flatten, reopening with no restrictions is likely to see another spike.

[Golfman25 5,052]

1 hour ago, Brass Cannon said:

You think you know more than the doctors at Johns Hopkins?

You must be from Purdue.  Your graph was sourced from John Hopkins data.  Has nothing to do with their doctors.  

[RaceToTheTop 25,031]

Cuomo briefing:

Apex in active cases expected too be 14 to 21 days from now.  Projected need is 140,000 hospital beds and 40,000 ICU beds.  State still needs 87,000 beds and 37,000 ICU beds.  College dorms, hotels, and other possible spaces will be converted to temporary hospital situations.

Schools will be closed an additional two weeks after April 1 and then reassessed (I have no idea why they have not already extended that farther).

Testing procedures are taking too long.  Standard test is taking 5 days.

Positives news:  172 people moved to ICU on 3/28.  The day before it was 374.

 

[Old Friend 8,389]

12 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

I don't disagree.  I think like 40% of the cases are in NYC.  But we also have had places outside of NYC that are now capable of testing that weren't able to do so just a short time ago as more tests get distributed.  My sister works at a hospital in Indiana that just a short time ago did not have the capability of testing.  Now they do.

Just my opinion -- the stopping testing in NYC certainly has caused a drop in the percentage rise of tests -- more so than the increased availability elsewhere -- but not enough to fully account for a drop of the percentage from the mid 40s to the mid 20s.

We are still just at the very beginning of examining if the changes we have been making (quarantines, social distancing, cutting down on large gatherings) are effecting the numbers.  Symptoms first onset from approximately 2 days to 14 days with a median of 5.  I would assume that the point of hospitalization when needed occurs somewhere around a median of 9 days.  Indiana has been on shutdown since Monday I think, so we are only looking at a 5 day period.  Basically anyone who has been hospitalized since then was infected prior to the shutdown.  The real effects probably won't start to really show up until next weekend.  And if the curve isn't flattening, you really have to extend it.  Even it is has started to flatten, reopening with no restrictions is likely to see another spike.

Solid synopsis.  I think the plan is to re-evaluate next weekend (ish), see where we are, and strategically open back up in phases if that's possible.   No chance anything will open up w no restrictions.   Every exponential curve flattens at some point, and ours will, also.  Lots of good news out there if you look for it.    It's a waiting game and then a strategic open up plan, hoping politicians and would-be power grabbers won't over react and play their God card which would mean far more and far longer closures, etc than may be necessary by mid-May or so...and beyond.

[Golfman25 5,052]

35 minutes ago, JerryYeagley23 said:

Two words: exponential growth. 
 

This is a trend-line graphic. What you should be looking at is the trajectory, and slope of the line. Our trend-line is still vertical, which means it doesn’t matter what the number is compare to Italy or Spain or China; what matters is that our doubling rate is not curving, it is vertical. Representing exponential growth. Which means, it doesn’t matter how many cases currently we have compared to our total population. That velocity means it’s still moving with no end in sight. This isn’t a NYC thing. They were the first epicenter. Chicago, New Orleans, Detroit, etc. are next if this growth rate doesn’t slow. And if it stays vertical growing exponentially, our gross numbers and per capita numbers will ALL dwarf those of other countries whose curves and doubling rates are flattening. 
 

Brass Cannon, keep fighting the good fight. I don’t have the time or energy to chime in as often as I’d like. Keep spreading facts and providing perspective. 

Exponential growth is a function of the rate of growth.  As the rate of growth slows, your exponential growth does as well.  Our rate is slowing.  Maybe it's testing related, maybe it's not.  We'll have to see.      

[RaceToTheTop 25,031]

Good news and bad news:  Dr. Fauci states that 56% of all new infections are coming from the New York City area.

[LIHoosier 25,932]

38 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Good news and bad news:  Dr. Fauci states that 56% of all new infections are coming from the New York City area.

Where's the good news?

[8bucks 6,353]

Indy emerging as another hot spot.


https://www.wibc.com/news/coronavirus/us-surgeon-general-calls-indianapolis-an-emerging-hot-spot-for-coronavirus/


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[Brass Cannon 24,271]

11 hours ago, Golfman25 said:

You must be from Purdue.  Your graph was sourced from John Hopkins data.  Has nothing to do with their doctors.  

This is such an odd thing for you to troll about. But don’t let decency stop you I suppose. 
 

They wouldn’t put their name on something that was being deceptive. 
 

You’ve been wrong about everything about Covid so far. Why stop now I suppose. 

[Old Friend 8,389]

For anyone who cares, on that Johns Hopkins tracker, today our (US) number of "recovered" for the first time outnumbers "deaths."   That has to be a small good sign.  I imagine that gap will widen considerably as the days drag on.  

 

[Class of '66 Old Fart 84,089]

Seems like its been several days since we've had this graph posted.  Hopefully we'll start to see the US trend line begin to flatten sooner rather than later.

John Burn-Murdoch:    NEW: Sunday 29 March update of coronavirus mortality trajectories • UK still tracking Italy.  Death toll doubling every 2.8 days • US curve still steepening, could reach 1,000 new daily deaths within next 3-4 days.

[Brass Cannon 24,271]

4 minutes ago, Class of '66 Old Fart said:

Seems like its been several days since we've had this graph posted.  Hopefully we'll start to see the US trend line begin to flatten sooner rather than later.

John Burn-Murdoch:    NEW: Sunday 29 March update of coronavirus mortality trajectories • UK still tracking Italy.  Death toll doubling every 2.8 days • US curve still steepening, could reach 1,000 new daily deaths within next 3-4 days.

I posted the Saturday one but it was dismissed because this is nominal and not adjusted for population as if 1000+ dying isn’t terrible because we have more people than the other countries we are outpacing. 

[mdn82 25,510]

https://news.yahoo.com/dr-birx-predicts-200-000-115800421.html

Stay safe all. It’s going to get worse over the next month due to the overcrowding that is going to happen. Take care of yourself and loved ones.


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[Lebowski 2,472]

3 hours ago, mdn82 said:

https://news.yahoo.com/dr-birx-predicts-200-000-115800421.html

Stay safe all. It’s going to get worse over the next month due to the overcrowding that is going to happen. Take care of yourself and loved ones.


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Thanks for sharing.  

Like I've been saying.  Mid April, we'll get a better understanding of the situation. 

[BlueDevil 8,655]

First confirmed case in Cass County today. I can only assume there will be plenty more as the days go on.


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[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,623]

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[Class of '66 Old Fart 84,089]

NCAA and eligibility.  Winter athletes are finished.  Spring athletes receive an extra year.

https://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/division-i-council-extends-eligibility-student-athletes-impacted-covid-19