Bracketology and Team Resumes

[RaceToTheTop]

BYU player has 24 of BYU's 46 points with about 13 minutes left -- on 8 of 11 from three.  BYU up by 4 on Cincinnati.

[RaceToTheTop]

BYU player (Knell) just hit his ninth three with 12:38 left to go.

[RaceToTheTop]

My updated Big Ten tournament WAR through tonight:

1. Purdue 14-1  WAR +5.75
2. Wisconsin 11-3  WAR +2.77
3. Illinois 11-3 WAR +1.69
4. Ohio State 12-3  WAR +1.29
5. Nebraska 12-3 WAR +0.99
6. Indiana 11-4 WAR +0.80
7. Northwestern 10-3 WAR +0.65
8. Michigan State 9-5 WAR -.07
9. Minnesota 11-3 WAR -.24
10. Iowa 9-6 WAR -0.64
11. Rutgers 8-6 WAR -1.45
12. Maryland 9-5 WAR -1.53
13. Michigan 6-8 WAR -2.6
14. Penn State 7-7 WAR -3.11

 

[realTomCrean]

Kenpom
Michigan State: 9-5 #17

Xavier: 6-6 #41

Iowa: 9-6 #52

Washington: 9-6  #54

USC: 8-7 #62

Michigan: 6-8 #63

Maryland: 9-5 #80

Stanford: 7-7 #81

Indiana: 11-4 #89

Rutger: 8-6 #90 

[Uspshoosier]

Moved up 13 spots to 98 in the NET.   Road win would moved the needle more 

[Uspshoosier]

January 16th- February 10th will be a brutal stretch for IU.   4 road games at NET 2, 10, 13, 44 and 3 home games against 2, 67, 139.      Iowa and Penn St at home become  very crucial just to survive that stretch.  You would like to steal some of those other games but there is a very good possibility IU could lose 5 of 7 during that stretch.   As doom and gloom as that sounds if that were to happen IU will still have a chance to finish the season strong because the schedule becomes more favorable.   Survive that stretch and IU will have a shot.   Let those road losses snowball and lose the home games to Penn St and Iowa and now IU will be in trouble.    For me those 2 games are the most important for IU moving forward 

[Uspshoosier]

All it takes is a team to get hot and string together 2 good weeks and they can go from off the radar to tourney with a couple big wins.   Seton Hall had 0 Q1 or Q2 wins a couple weeks ago and now they have 3 and should be projected as a tourney team 

[Stuhoo]

22 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

January 16th- February 10th will be a brutal stretch for IU.   4 road games at NET 2, 10, 13, 44 and 3 home games against 2, 67, 139.      Iowa and Penn St at home become  very crucial just to survive that stretch.  You would like to steal some of those other games but there is a very good possibility IU could lose 5 of 7 during that stretch.   As doom and gloom as that sounds if that were to happen IU will still have a chance to finish the season strong because the schedule becomes more favorable.   Survive that stretch and IU will have a shot.   Let those road losses snowball and lose the home games to Penn St and Iowa and now IU will be in trouble.    For me those 2 games are the most important for IU moving forward 

Win the next two and we go into the (by far) toughest part of the schedule 5-1. Even losing 5 of 7 leaves us at 7-6 in conference with a favorable schedule down the stretch.

Winning at Rutgers and home against Minny this week is completely doable, and opens up a lot of good outcomes.

[RaceToTheTop]

BYU only dropped one spot with their home loss to Cincinnati.

[Uspshoosier]

51 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

BYU only dropped one spot with their home loss to Cincinnati.

They built up enough capital in the non conference by smashing bad teams by a ton that a home loss to a top 30 team didn’t do much.    If I’m a college coach I would definitely take notice on how BYU and Iowa St scheduled and copy that in the non conference.  NET can be gamed by coaches who know what they are doing.  No different than RPI though.  When that was used coaches gamed that as well 

[RaceToTheTop]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

They built up enough capital in the non conference by smashing bad teams by a ton that a home loss to a top 30 team didn’t do much.    If I’m a college coach I would definitely take notice on how BYU and Iowa St scheduled and copy that in the non conference.  NET can be gamed by coaches who know what they are doing.  No different than RPI though.  When that was used coaches gamed that as well 

I know, but part of them taking a home loss to a top 30 team was them losing to that team.  Cincy was 37 before they played BYU, 25 after.

[Uspshoosier]

8 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I know, but part of them taking a home loss to a top 30 team was them losing to that team.  Cincy was 37 before they played BYU, 25 after.

I’m guessing they didn’t drop much in Ken Pom either after their home loss 

[RaceToTheTop]

4 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

I’m guessing they didn’t drop much in Ken Pom either after their home loss 

They fell 5 spots -- from 4 to 9.

[Uspshoosier]

1 minute ago, RaceToTheTop said:

They fell 5 spots -- from 4 to 9.

Almost a full 2 pts 

[Uspshoosier]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

Almost a full 2 pts 

26.48 was good for 4th 

24.55 is where they are at being 9th 

[RaceToTheTop]

1 minute ago, Uspshoosier said:

26.48 was good for 4th 

24.55 is where they are at being 9th 

Yes.  I understand the use of efficiency metrics, but don't agree that they should be used as a measure of sorting teams for tournament selection.  BYU's non-conference SOS was 306 and they are 11-0 against quads 3 and 4, so I personally don't think that a 12-2 record says they should be 4th ranked NET team.

[Uspshoosier]

21 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Yes.  I understand the use of efficiency metrics, but don't agree that they should be used as a measure of sorting teams for tournament selection.  BYU's non-conference SOS was 306 and they are 11-0 against quads 3 and 4, so I personally don't think that a 12-2 record says they should be 4th ranked NET team.

For sure that’s why committee doesn’t use overall NET number to place teams.   Team sheet inside that number is way more important then the number.   It’s why BYU would be a 6th seed for me even with a 4 NET and 9 Ken Pom.    

[Uspshoosier]

Dropped 5 spots to 103 in the NET

Despite all the doom and gloom and my hatred for how this is constructed and style of play IU still hasn’t done anything bad in their resume.  On the flip side they haven’t done much to improve it either.   At this point IU is protecting to be a bubble team for me.    Since they don’t have any Q3 or Q4 losses if they manage to win enough home games and steal a few road games against the bottom of the B1G then they would actually be in pretty good shape at the bottom of the bubble.   Remember they are not competing with the upper tier teams for those spots they are battling other teams with major flaws.    Those teams show the ability to lose a bunch or road games.    If they find a way to beat Purdue at home on Tuesday and that win is like 2 wins     Long way to go and isn’t trending great but the path is still there 

 

[Gnet550]

22 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Dropped 5 spots to 103 in the NET

Despite all the doom and gloom and my hatred for how this is constructed and style of play IU still hasn’t done anything bad in their resume.  On the flip side they haven’t done much to improve it either.   At this point IU is protecting to be a bubble team for me.    Since they don’t have any Q3 or Q4 losses if they manage to win enough home games and steal a few road games against the bottom of the B1G then they would actually be in pretty good shape at the bottom of the bubble.   Remember they are not competing with the upper tier teams for those spots they are battling other teams with major flaws.    Those teams show the ability to lose a bunch or road games.    If they find a way to beat Purdue at home on Tuesday and that win is like 2 wins     Long way to go and isn’t trending great but the path is still there 

 

I agree....do things need fixed? Absolutely....Do we need X and Gallo to pick it up? absolutely.....do we need to find a better substitution routine? I think so, can't be hockey style....regardless we are still in solid shape if we can continue to win our home games and steal a couple road wins, as you stated...Look at our losses- (I get they were ugly but) Top 5 Kansas, top 5 UCONN, top 20 Auburn, Nebraska(who just beat Purdue handily at home as well), and then Rutgers (probably our worst loss, but have to remember at Rutgers they are a tough win to get...I also think if X doesn't pull an idiot move we still may have been able to pull that game off. I know we played poorly but we actually had a little momentum going and it was a what 3 point game at the time)

Bad losses- none....If at Rutgers is our worst loss of the year I think this team sneaks in.  If you look at the Ohio St. game, this team is capable...Just hope we stay capable.

[JSHoosier]

2 minutes ago, Gnet550 said:

I agree....do things need fixed? Absolutely....Do we need X and Gallo to pick it up? absolutely.....do we need to find a better substitution routine? I think so, can't be hockey style....regardless we are still in solid shape if we can continue to win our home games and steal a couple road wins, as you stated...Look at our losses- (I get they were ugly but) Top 5 Kansas, top 5 UCONN, top 20 Auburn, Nebraska(who just beat Purdue handily at home as well), and then Rutgers (probably our worst loss, but have to remember at Rutgers they are a tough win to get...I also think if X doesn't pull an idiot move we still may have been able to pull that game off. I know we played poorly but we actually had a little momentum going and it was a what 3 point game at the time)

Bad losses- none....If at Rutgers is our worst loss of the year I think this team sneaks in.  If you look at the Ohio St. game, this team is capable...Just hope we stay capable.

Winning that would've been pure dumb luck. You'll have a very difficult time winning with nearly 20 TOs and giving up almost 20 offensive boards and only hitting 4-15 from the line.