Bracketology and Team Resumes

[RaceToTheTop 26,768]

Seems very weird to me that IU only moved up one spot in NET with the win at Ohio State.

Team sheet is showing good results based metrics (wins/losses) but not good predictive based metrics.

Results based:  KPI 28, SOR 35, WAB 35

Predictive based:  BPI 61, POM 58, T-Rank 62

FWIW, Torvik's ten most recent resumes similar to Indiana's current resume saw five teams in the tournament and five teams miss.  The ones that did make it were seeded 10 to 12 except for Boston College in 2009 which had a 7 seed (probably well over seeded).  The teams in the last 10 years with the resumes most similar to Indiana were Arizona State in 2023 (11 seed, play in round, won play in game, lost round of 64);  Michigan State 2021 (11th seed, play in round, lost);  and TCU 2019 (missed tournament).  

 

[HoosierHoopster 7,271]

41 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Seems very weird to me that IU only moved up one spot in NET with the win at Ohio State.

Team sheet is showing good results based metrics (wins/losses) but not good predictive based metrics.

Results based:  KPI 28, SOR 35, WAB 35

Predictive based:  BPI 61, POM 58, T-Rank 62

FWIW, Torvik's ten most recent resumes similar to Indiana's current resume saw five teams in the tournament and five teams miss.  The ones that did make it were seeded 10 to 12 except for Boston College in 2009 which had a 7 seed (probably well over seeded).  The teams in the last 10 years with the resumes most similar to Indiana were Arizona State in 2023 (11 seed, play in round, won play in game, lost round of 64);  Michigan State 2021 (11th seed, play in round, lost);  and TCU 2019 (missed tournament).  

 

In summary, we’ve got work to do

[Uspshoosier 46,851]

https://x.com/thefieldof68/status/1881469713253024008?s=46

[RaceToTheTop 26,768]

4 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

https://x.com/thefieldof68/status/1881469713253024008?s=46

I simply don't get how they could be as high as a NET 24.  Four quad 1 games, all losses (including one at home).  No wins in road games. 8 of their 14 wins are quad 4.  Horrible, horrible non-conference SOS (329 NET, 342 RPI, 364 POM).

I know the video says they have some holes in their resume, but IMO NET is taking efficiency measures way out of wack.

[RaceToTheTop 26,768]

On the most up to date Bracketmatrix, IU  is in 27 of the 69 (39%) brackets submitted and overall would be the second team out.  Also worth mentioning that it improves to 25 out of 47 (53%) if you only include brackets that were submitted after the Ohio State game.

i would also suggest (and ask USPS to weigh in) that there will be fewer seed stealers this year as the power 5 teams are currently looking to have so many at large bids and not many mid majors are going to have a team that would be an at large if they don’t win their tournament.

[Uspshoosier 46,851]

7 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I simply don't get how they could be as high as a NET 24.  Four quad 1 games, all losses (including one at home).  No wins in road games. 8 of their 14 wins are quad 4.  Horrible, horrible non-conference SOS (329 NET, 342 RPI, 364 POM).

I know the video says they have some holes in their resume, but IMO NET is taking efficiency measures way out of wack.

Yeah Maryland needs to win some road games and some others.  I just posted that for the whole video not Maryland specific.  

[Uspshoosier 46,851]

6 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

i would also suggest (and ask USPS to weigh in) that there will be fewer seed stealers this year as the power 5 teams are currently looking to have so many at large bids and not many mid majors are going to have a team that would be an at large if they don’t win their tournament

There will still be bid stealers out there.  Not only mid major teams but high major teams like NC State last year that wouldn’t have made it if they didn’t have a ridiculous March run.   I haven’t really dove that deep into the mid majors but there will be some out there who get high major bubble teams will be rooting for in their tourney 

[IUHoosierJoe 1,318]

10 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I simply don't get how they could be as high as a NET 24.  Four quad 1 games, all losses (including one at home).  No wins in road games. 8 of their 14 wins are quad 4.  Horrible, horrible non-conference SOS (329 NET, 342 RPI, 364 POM).

I know the video says they have some holes in their resume, but IMO NET is taking efficiency measures way out of wack.

They had some extreme routs early in the season that are still helping their NET.

[RaceToTheTop 26,768]

3 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

There will still be bid stealers out there.  Not only mid major teams but high major teams like NC State last year that wouldn’t have made it if they didn’t have a ridiculous March run.   I haven’t really dove that deep into the mid majors but there will be some out there who get high major bubble teams will be rooting for in their tourney 

On the high major end I see less chance of bid stealers because of the number of teams that would already be at large bids.

[RaceToTheTop 26,768]

Lunardi’s bracket this morning has IU as the last team in.

[Uspshoosier 46,851]

https://x.com/bracketguydave/status/1881832434733605324?s=46

[RaceToTheTop 26,768]

2 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

https://x.com/bracketguydave/status/1881832434733605324?s=46

Yeah, IU seems very on the bubble right now in most brackets.  

My completely not fully researched ranking of Big Ten resumes:

1. Purdue
2. Michigan State
3. Illinois
4. Michigan
5. Oregon
6. Wisconsin
7. UCLA
8. Maryland
9. Indiana
10. Nebraska
11. Ohio State
12. Northwestern
13. Iowa
14. Penn State
15. USC
16. Rutgers
17. Washington
18. Minnesota

[Uspshoosier 46,851]

7 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Yeah, IU seems very on the bubble right now in most brackets.  

My completely not fully researched ranking of Big Ten resumes:

1. Purdue
2. Michigan State
3. Illinois
4. Michigan
5. Oregon
6. Wisconsin
7. UCLA
8. Maryland
9. Indiana
10. Nebraska
11. Ohio State
12. Northwestern
13. Iowa
14. Penn State
15. USC
16. Rutgers
17. Washington
18. Minnesota

Oregon would be higher.   They have 7 Q1 wins with USC 1 spot away from having 8 Q1 wins 

[Uspshoosier 46,851]

https://x.com/thefieldof68/status/1882922327006179339?s=12

[Uspshoosier 46,851]

Soul crushing loss for the Hoosiers. Math is still there for them but after that one I’m guessing they will fade out of the picture.  Mediocre bubble teams are mediocre for w reason and  seem to find a way to lose games the should have won.   This will haunt them 

[cybergates 488]

6 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Soul crushing loss for the Hoosiers. Math is still there for them but after that one I’m guessing they will fade out of the picture.  Mediocre bubble teams are mediocre for w reason and  seem to find a way to lose games the should have won.   This will haunt them 

Team Cast has us needing to win 3 games in the B1G tourney to get in now.

[woodenshoemanHoosierfan 6,287]

Team Cast has us needing to win 3 games in the B1G tourney to get in now.

We may not have to worry about that with the way things are going. We may be one of the bottom 4

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

[Uspshoosier 46,851]

10 hours ago, cybergates said:

Team Cast has us needing to win 3 games in the B1G tourney to get in now.

That would depend on how many games they win during the regular season.  Math is still there for them to make it without making a run in the B1G tourney however highly unlikely with the gauntlet they have in front of them 

[cybergates 488]

46 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

That would depend on how many games they win during the regular season.  Math is still there for them to make it without making a run in the B1G tourney however highly unlikely with the gauntlet they have in front of them 

Correct. Teamcast has us winning 3 more games in the regular season to be 8-12 in the B1G and then requiring the 3 games in the B1G tourney to be the last of the last 4 in (4th).

[Uspshoosier 46,851]

https://x.com/TheAndyKatz/status/1884254185543389403
 

a little more on the WAB and NET.   Always nice to get more info from the people the help create it.   If you listen to it you will notice some notes that I say all the time when dealing with the NET, Quads and such