Bracketology and Team Resumes

[BGVille Hoosierfan 2,909]

 

I feel like as long as we can win 3 games we are undoubtedly in, and 2 more wins puts us on the bubble but in with 19 wins. Mike Decourcey has said that the bubble is so bad this year that IU should be in.

 

Just take care of home court the rest of the way!

 

 

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2 more wins and they’re a lock, especially if one of those wins either comes on the road or against Penn State. 1 more win and we’re squarely on the bubble but at 18 regular season wins and 1 in the BTT and I still think they’re in. Bubble is very weak this year and new quadrant system really helps major conference teams from getting bids stolen by mid-majors.

 

 

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[JerryYeagley23 3,656]

1 hour ago, jbell833 said:

2 more wins and they’re a lock, especially if one of those wins either comes on the road or against Penn State. 1 more win and we’re squarely on the bubble but at 18 regular season wins and 1 in the BTT and I still think they’re in. Bubble is very weak this year and new quadrant system really helps major conference teams from getting bids stolen by mid-majors.

 

 

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Agreed about the bubble. Last night was an enormous win for IU, not only because of the quad 1 road win, but just in relation to what it could have meant for trajectory and the smell test. I’m with you on the likelihood that even 1 more W in the regular season and 1 in the B1G tourney still gets us in. There has been sooo much publicity about the strength of the B1G, that even at 8-12 in conference, an 18-win IU probably still gets in. Especially when you consider this, MSU has remaining games @Maryland and @PSU, and home games against Iowa and OSU. If they lose two of those, which I see as likely, they would end up the regular season at 20-11, and they’re being projected as a 5-7 seed. There just can’t be such a chasm between two losses between B1G teams given everyone recognizes how strong 10 of the 12 teams are, or have the potential to be any given night. I think we get at least 2 more wins (and call me crazy but I think one will be at Purdue), and will be safely in with a 10-seed floor. Last night kept us from a potential end of season collapse “look” that would have presented poorly. Make sure no losing streak is now than two games from here out and it will show we’re still competing and aren’t in free fall which would give talking heads something to complain about if we got selected coming in losing 6 straight. 

[reconmkd 4,400]

How in the ever beloved hell, does a 14-13 PUke on a 3 game losing streak actually move up one spot in the NET? I’m at a loss, I understand that there are other metrics in the ranking, they have played a ton of quad 1 games, but they lost 10 of those!


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[iu-dl 1,470]

12 minutes ago, reconmkd said:

How in the ever beloved hell, does a 14-13 PUke on a 3 game losing streak actually move up one spot in the NET? I’m at a loss, I understand that there are other metrics in the ranking, they have played a ton of quad 1 games, but they lost 10 of those!


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I don't get it either. They have a few impressive wins, but an absolute ton of losses where they don't show up at all. 14-13 and in the low 30's on net?  C'mon... - For what it's worth, the NET hates Virginia too. IU has the same resume with a tougher schedule than half of the teams ahead of them.

[HoosierAloha 30,068]

Call me crazy but I could easily see pu winning 3 of 4 and then winning a couple in the BTT to be comfortably in the dance. If we can hang on that would put 11 Big Ten teams in, tying a record.


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[Uspshoosier 45,785]

Massive top 45

Quad 1 road win for the Hoosiers tonight for their resume

 

I’m going to guess IU moves up 8 spots tomorrow in the NET hopefully more.

 

Nothing has changed they still have work to do.

 

If they win 2 more games in the regular season they are going to be dancing

 

 

 

 

 

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Moved up 4 spots lol. I was wrong about the 8 spots.

 

 

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[mdn82 25,510]

Moved up 4 spots lol. I was wrong about the 8 spots.

 

 

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It would be really nice to know the formula. Just feels like there is a lot of emphasis on the eye test or winning/losing “pretty”. As Purdue moves up the rankings while continue to lose that is the only thing that makes sense.

 

 

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[IUc2016 7,121]

1 minute ago, mdn82 said:

It would be really nice to know the formula. Just feels like there is a lot of emphasis on the eye test or winning/losing “pretty”. As Purdue moves up the rankings while continue to lose that is the only thing that makes sense.


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Yeah curious as well. Isn't there some bonus for winning on the road and winning by 10+? Doesn't seem like that helped us out too much in this case. 

On another note, this team is 4-6 away from home. All that gets talked about our atrocious road record people forget that we have two good neutral court wins that the committee will see. 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,674]

It would be really nice to know the formula. Just feels like there is a lot of emphasis on the eye test or winning/losing “pretty”. As Purdue moves up the rankings while continue to lose that is the only thing that makes sense.
 
 
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By now there should be a rating system that can push a 14-13 team way down.


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[Uspshoosier 45,785]

It would be really nice to know the formula. Just feels like there is a lot of emphasis on the eye test or winning/losing “pretty”. As Purdue moves up the rankings while continue to lose that is the only thing that makes sense.
 
 
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Yeah my best guess is it relies heavily on offensive and defensive efficiency. In their little cheat sheet they showed last year those were the 2nd most important factor. Team value index being number one but like you said they don’t give the algorithm for how they come up with the team value index. Some of our wins would be considered ugly wins but our offensive and defensive efficiency numbers were probably terrible in the wins. That’s my best guess. Luckily the overall NET number is just used as a sorting tool and what’s inside the team sheet are more important.


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[Uspshoosier 45,785]

Yeah curious as well. Isn't there some bonus for winning on the road and winning by 10+? Doesn't seem like that helped us out too much in this case. 
On another note, this team is 4-6 away from home. All that gets talked about our atrocious road record people forget that we have two good neutral court wins that the committee will see. 

No bonus they just cap off the scoring margin at 10 in the scoring margin category( the least important of the categories used in determining the NET


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[IUc2016 7,121]

11 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Yeah my best guess is it relies heavily on offensive and defensive efficiency. In their little cheat sheet they showed last year those were the 2nd most important factor. Team value index being number one but like you said they don’t give the algorithm for how they come up with the team value index. Some of our wins would be considered ugly wins but our offensive and defensive efficiency numbers were probably terrible in the wins. That’s my best guess. Luckily the overall NET number is just used as a sorting tool and what’s inside the team sheet are more important.


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Yeah I was looking at Yale's team sheet. They are 16-6 and they are ranked one spot ahead of IU in the NET. 

Quad 1: 0-2

Quad 2: 1-2

Quad 3: 6-2

Quad 4: 9-0

Average Net Win: 217 

Average Net Loss: 90

This doesn't even compare to IU's teamsheet yet they are ahead in the NET. 

[LIHoosier 26,213]

No bonus they just cap off the scoring margin at 10 in the scoring margin category( the least important of the categories used in determining the NET


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Which is useless when adjusted off/def are factored in so heavily.

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[RaceToTheTop 25,847]

5 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Yeah my best guess is it relies heavily on offensive and defensive efficiency. In their little cheat sheet they showed last year those were the 2nd most important factor. Team value index being number one but like you said they don’t give the algorithm for how they come up with the team value index. Some of our wins would be considered ugly wins but our offensive and defensive efficiency numbers were probably terrible in the wins. That’s my best guess. Luckily the overall NET number is just used as a sorting tool and what’s inside the team sheet are more important.


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I just don't get why wins, losses, and SOS aren't the most important items.  As I've said before, teams that have the same net points for/against will have the same basic efficiencies regardless of whether they go 1-9 or 9-1.....win one game by 18 and lose 9 by 1 point each yields the same result as winning 9 games by 1 point and losing one by 18.  But tell me one fan that is experiences the about the same amount of happiness with a one point win as they do with a one point loss.

[RaceToTheTop 25,847]

5 hours ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

By now there should be a rating system that can push a 14-13 team way down.


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Offensive and defensive efficiency are predictive but not reflective.  Time for the NCAA tournament committee to get into the business of trying to reward teams and not predict future events.  

Ohio State currently is 17-8 with a KenPom SOS of 23.  IU is 17-9 with a KenPom of SOS of 19.  Yet Ohio State is ranked #9 on Pom and IU is #39.  

[Uspshoosier 45,785]

Offensive and defensive efficiency are predictive but not reflective.  Time for the NCAA tournament committee to get into the business of trying to reward teams and not predict future events.  

Ohio State currently is 17-8 with a KenPom SOS of 23.  IU is 17-9 with a KenPom of SOS of 19.  Yet Ohio State is ranked #9 on Pom and IU is #39.  

Before they came up with the NET they held a convention with the people like Ken Pom, Sagarin and others to get feedback. Ken is on record saying he isn’t comfortable with people using his numbers for selection of teams that his is more predictive. Basically the NET is a mixture of both results based like the RPI and predictive like Ken Pom. Until they release the algorithm no one will really know what goes into coming up with the most important number. Maybe one day

 

 

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[Uspshoosier 45,785]

Before they came up with the NET they held a convention with the people like Ken Pom, Sagarin and others to get feedback. Ken is on record saying he isn’t comfortable with people using his numbers for selection of teams that his is more predictive. Basically the NET is a mixture of both results based like the RPI and predictive like Ken Pom. Until they release the algorithm no one will really know what goes into coming up with the most important number. Maybe one day
 
 
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My work here will be done when people understand that my system is trying to predict how teams will do going forward and is not trying to measure accomplishment (which is what NCAA selection should be based on).
Ken Pom


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[LIHoosier 26,213]

6 hours ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

By now there should be a rating system that can push a 14-13 team way down.


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I have a system and it has Purdon't 62nd as of today. FYI, IU is 42nd.

[Uspshoosier 45,785]

FWIW Purdue is 81 in the Rpi

IU is 49th

If they used RPI for the quads
IU would be
Q1-(1-7)
Q2-(5-1)
Q3-(4-1)
Q4-(7-0)


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[HoosierAloha 30,068]

Before they came up with the NET they held a convention with the people like Ken Pom, Sagarin and others to get feedback. Ken is on record saying he isn’t comfortable with people using his numbers for selection of teams that his is more predictive. Basically the NET is a mixture of both results based like the RPI and predictive like Ken Pom. Until they release the algorithm no one will really know what goes into coming up with the most important number. Maybe one day
 
 
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It won’t be long before one of the big heads to break the algorithm or something extremely similar.


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