A look at some advanced stats for our returning players

[Brass Cannon]

I know its early and small sample size but thought it would be interesting to take look at a few advanced stats of our top 6 Guys.  I go back and fourth on these two stats myself by their nature they should agree more often than they do. I probably lean more towards WS/40 because I feel like more often than not it agrees with the eye test. 

For example they disagree here with PER saying that Newkirk and Blackmon are having down years from their previous season, and I disagree with that they both look like better overall players to be so think W/S 40 is closer to the truth and I expect Newkirk to solidify that because he looks to be getting a handle on things. Something they do agree on is that Bryant is having a down year, and I would 100% agree with that. 

They also agree in saying that Robert Johnson is our breakout star, biggest increase in both Stats. 

OG and Morgan both stats also agree are improved.  Silences the haters who said their high efficiency was just a result of playing few minutes. 

I really wonder how much Bryant misses Yogi and if that is the main factor in this.  Its really his offensive numbers more than anything dragging his stats down.  His TS% and eFG% are both down from his Freshman year and I figure thats because he doesn't have Yogi setting him up.  Perhaps as Newkirk improves Bryants game will begin to return to form

PER

Name - This Season(Last Season) Difference

Newkirk - 9.4(9.6) -.2

Blackmon - 23.8(27.6) -3.8

Johnson - 23.3(14.8) +8.5

OG - 24.4(20.1) +4.3

Bryant - 22.2(26.6) -4.4

Morgan - 16.0(14.8) +1.2

WS/40

Name - This Season(Last Season)

Newkirk - .112(0.36) Increase

Blackmon - .246(.221) Increase

Johnson - .233(.133) Increase

OG - .239(.159) Increase

Bryant - .211(.223) Decrease

Morgan - .189(.143) Increase

I'll probably chart these at the end of each month to see how the season progresses btw. 

 

 

 

[Alford Bailey]

I cant figure out TB. Dude is so unorthodox. 6'10" but not much on post moves. Can bang with the best or get tossed around like a rag doll. Now he is shooting the three? Still early. Surely his numbers improve.

[Brass Cannon]

Something I just noticed Davis leads the team in both these stats. 

Come Big Ten play might have to start him at C. Move Bryant to PF. 

Johnson/Blackmon/OG/Bryant/Davis

Newkirk/Green/Cujo/McRoberts/Morgan off the bench. 

[HoosierAloha]

Something I just noticed Davis leads the team in both these stats. 

Come Big Ten play might have to start him at C. Move Bryant to PF. 

Johnson/Blackmon/OG/Bryant/Davis

Newkirk/Green/Cujo/McRoberts/Morgan off the bench. 

I would like to see Davis and Bryant starting but I'm not sure we can against most teams. Bryant doesn't have the foot speed to stay with most 4s in the B1G. I like to see that lineup when we want to really punish teams on the glass and in the paint. Then replace them with OG and JMo to pick the pace up to throw teams off.

Edit: I know I should be happy with two capable bigs on the roster but I want that third "project" big. If we had another big to come in after those two I would be more comfortable playing DD and TB together.

[Beachfront Property]

On 12/1/2016 at 11:42 AM, Brass Cannon said:

I know its early and small sample size but thought it would be interesting to take look at a few advanced stats of our top 6 Guys.  I go back and fourth on these two stats myself by their nature they should agree more often than they do. I probably lean more towards WS/40 because I feel like more often than not it agrees with the eye test. 

For example they disagree here with PER saying that Newkirk and Blackmon are having down years from their previous season, and I disagree with that they both look like better overall players to be so think W/S 40 is closer to the truth and I expect Newkirk to solidify that because he looks to be getting a handle on things. Something they do agree on is that Bryant is having a down year, and I would 100% agree with that. 

They also agree in saying that Robert Johnson is our breakout star, biggest increase in both Stats. 

OG and Morgan both stats also agree are improved.  Silences the haters who said their high efficiency was just a result of playing few minutes. 

I really wonder how much Bryant misses Yogi and if that is the main factor in this.  Its really his offensive numbers more than anything dragging his stats down.  His TS% and eFG% are both down from his Freshman year and I figure thats because he doesn't have Yogi setting him up.  Perhaps as Newkirk improves Bryants game will begin to return to form

PER

Name - This Season(Last Season) Difference

Newkirk - 9.4(9.6) -.2

Blackmon - 23.8(27.6) -3.8

Johnson - 23.3(14.8) +8.5

OG - 24.4(20.1) +4.3

Bryant - 22.2(26.6) -4.4

Morgan - 16.0(14.8) +1.2

WS/40

Name - This Season(Last Season)

Newkirk - .112(0.36) Increase

Blackmon - .246(.221) Increase

Johnson - .233(.133) Increase

OG - .239(.159) Increase

Bryant - .211(.223) Decrease

Morgan - .189(.143) Increase

I'll probably chart these at the end of each month to see how the season progresses btw. 

 

 

 

Brass Cannon, this is great information. Can you explain what each of these stats measures in layman's terms - so idiots like myself know what we are looking at?

Also, is Newkirk's increase/decrease based on his last year at Pitt? I would have anticipated a much better number for Blackmon this year, as I think our team defense when he is on the floor is much improved over our team defense before his injury last year.

Davis needs to teach Bryant how to get position in the post. Defenders seem to push Bryant 12 to 15 feet away from the basket. Meanwhile, Davis gets very deep post position.

[Dalton26]

Morgan has looked really good this season. I'm shocked that Blackmon's number are down but Newkirks doesn't surprise me. I don't see what some on here see in Newkirk, he honestly hasn't impressed me at all. 

[Beachfront Property]

Just now, Dalton26 said:

Morgan has looked really good this season. I'm shocked that Blackmon's number are down but Newkirks doesn't surprise me. I don't see what some on here see in Newkirk, he honestly hasn't impressed me at all. 

Offensively, I agree with you on Newkirk. He needs to become a more efficient shooter. However, didn't he matchup with Berry for most of the UNC game? I think he has been an asset on the defensive end.

[Dalton26]

1 minute ago, Beachfront Property said:

Offensively, I agree with you on Newkirk. He needs to become a more efficient shooter. However, didn't he matchup with Berry for most of the UNC game? I think he has been an asset on the defensive end.

That's my main concern and I said it in the UNC game thread. When Newkirk has the ball or takes a shot I get nervous, he reminds me of VJ3 who made me constantly have a heart attack. 

[Brass Cannon]

I agree guys I just don't see it with Newkirk, if he could finish at the rim better I would like him.  But honestly if we aren't sold on Rojo running point I would just start Green and see if he develop enough by Big Ten play.  And for when we play really dynamic guards play Newkirk more.  But I would run with Rojo at point, then have a rotation of Morgan?Davis/Bryant at PF/C.

41 minutes ago, Beachfront Property said:

Brass Cannon, this is great information. Can you explain what each of these stats measures in layman's terms - so idiots like myself know what we are looking at?

Also, is Newkirk's increase/decrease based on his last year at Pitt? I would have anticipated a much better number for Blackmon this year, as I think our team defense when he is on the floor is much improved over our team defense before his injury last year.

Davis needs to teach Bryant how to get position in the post. Defenders seem to push Bryant 12 to 15 feet away from the basket. Meanwhile, Davis gets very deep post position.

WS/40 is Win Shares per 40 minutes.  Which is a stat that just tries to quantify how many wins a player will contribute.  So a player with a WS/40 of .200 who plays 20 minutes per game will get you 1 win worth of stats for every 10 game he plays in. 

PER is just a formula developed by John Hollinger to gauge players.  You could tweak the formula to get slightly different results.  

Both I think have their faults, I am not a big fan of PER as I mentioned I just think it fails the eye test too often.  As evidence by Blackmon having a lower PER despite pretty much everybody thinking he has had a better year.  They both undervalue and have a hard time quantifying defense, especially a stat that Crean loves deflections, a deflection is a valuable thing and yet alot of them don't get quantified in a stat sheet.  An opponent is on a fast break and you poke it out of bounds, doesn't that get taken into account?  Nope. 

If there are small differences in these stats its not really telling, but when they agree that there is a significant gap thats pretty revealing.  Such as with Bryant. 

[Stuhoo]

I agree guys I just don't see it with Newkirk, if he could finish at the rim better I would like him.  But honestly if we aren't sold on Rojo running point I would just start Green and see if he develop enough by Big Ten play.  And for when we play really dynamic guards play Newkirk more.  But I would run with Rojo at point, then have a rotation of Morgan?Davis/Bryant at PF/C.

WS/40 is Win Shares per 40 minutes.  Which is a stat that just tries to quantify how many wins a player will contribute.  So a player with a WS/40 of .200 who plays 20 minutes per game will get you 1 win worth of stats for every 10 game he plays in. 

PER is just a formula developed by John Hollinger to gauge players.  You could tweak the formula to get slightly different results.  

Both I think have their faults, I am not a big fan of PER as I mentioned I just think it fails the eye test too often.  As evidence by Blackmon having a lower PER despite pretty much everybody thinking he has had a better year.  They both undervalue and have a hard time quantifying defense, especially a stat that Crean loves deflections, a deflection is a valuable thing and yet alot of them don't get quantified in a stat sheet.  An opponent is on a fast break and you poke it out of bounds, doesn't that get taken into account?  Nope. 

If there are small differences in these stats its not really telling, but when they agree that there is a significant gap thats pretty revealing.  Such as with Bryant. 

Josh is a waaaay better defender than Devonte at this point.

[Brass Cannon]

37 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

 

Josh is a waaaay better defender than Devonte at this point.

 

I didn't say he wasn't.  In fact alluded to the fact he was

[Walking Boot of Doom]

Regarding Newkirk, his basic stats say he's performing at or slightly above his past level after a small number of games after missing an entire season due to injury. Also, as pointed out, his defense has been very impressive thus far. I think we're getting about what we should have expected from him, but I'm hoping and expecting improvement during the course of the season given how much time it had been since he played.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/josh-newkirk-1.html


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[bleedhoosier]

Thanks for the stats.

As far as general discussion on Newkirk, he has hit shots at a higher rate then I thought he would and several of his 3s have been half way down so I am starting to feel more comfortable with him on the open 3. He also hit a nice mid range jumper the other day which was nice to see. His defense really helps our squad. Not what I would call a super heady player though, in regards to ball handling.

I think we can all agree that Rojo is having a fantastic Junior campaign, thus far. Moving into the quiet leader spot. I think he is better at taking his man and finishing the play than Blackmon as well which gives me some thought into who I'd rather have with the ball in their hands in a crunch time moment. At the same time, still something I don't feel strongly about (rojo in crunch). I think he would be better suited to set him up to a catch, dribble move and shot situation. If it had to be catch and shoot, Blackmon for sure. NO ONE looks like they should just have the ball and make the play on their own.

Hell, Bryant might be the right guy to give the ball too and let him make a move lol. He seems to be able to pull off some fairly awkward shots.

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[lillurk]

7 hours ago, Walking Boot of Doom said:

Regarding Newkirk, his basic stats say he's performing at or slightly above his past level after a small number of games after missing an entire season due to injury. Also, as pointed out, his defense has been very impressive thus far. I think we're getting about what we should have expected from him, but I'm hoping and expecting improvement during the course of the season given how much time it had been since he played.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/josh-newkirk-1.html


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One reason to believe he'll improve I see right now: through eight games, he's only shooting 11/31 on 2s (35.5%). He's 9/22 on 3s (40.9%), and in his two seasons at Pitt, he shot 48.1% as a frosh and 42.1% as a sophomore on 2s (44.4% combining the two years). Those aren't great numbers, even for a small-ish guard, but I can't imagine he'll shoot below 40% from two all year. Even if he matched his career average on the 31 attempts so far this year, he'd have hit three more 2s.

For comparison's sake, Yogi's FG% on 2s by year: 45.3%, 42.9%, 46.0%, 48.8%.