Analysis: Where should IU be seeded in the NCAA Tournament?

It’s the question foremost on the minds of Indiana University basketball fans everywhere.

Where will Indiana be seeded when the NCAA unveils the 68-team 2016 tournament field in its Selection Sunday Show on Sunday?

A lot of people felt that Indiana was a No. 3 seed heading into Friday’s quarterfinal round of the Big Ten Tournament. After the buzzer beating 72-69 loss to Michigan, however, the sentiment was that IU may have slipped a spot to a No. 4 seed.

The sentiment was also that instead of playing closer to home Indiana might have to travel a distance for the first two games.

So what do you think?

Let’s begin with the seed itself. Should Indiana be a No. 3 or a No. 4? My guess is that it will be one or the other.

I’m still not convinced that Indiana has slipped off of the No. 3 line. While I think a win in the Big Ten Tournament would have improved IU’s chances to stay there, I’m just not certain that Friday’s lost was damaging enough to force the Hoosiers to fall. Michigan is not a bad team. In fact, those that think the Wolverines are still on the outside looking in after the loss to Purdue Saturday may have another thing coming.

I think the Wolverines have proven themselves worthy to be an NCAA Tournament team.

So what do the Bracketologists say?

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Indiana as a No. 4 seed facing No. 13 Chattanooga in Spokane, Wash. On the other side of that tandem is No. 5 California and No. 12 South Dakota State.

CBS Sports.com’s Jerry Palm has the Hoosiers also on the 4 line but has them in Oklahoma City where they would face No. 13 Yale. The other game there is No. 5 Iowa State and No. 12 Little Rock.

A third Bracketologist, Shelby Mast of USA Today, has Indiana as a No. 3 seed and facing No. 14 Middle Tennessee State in Des Moines. The other game there is No. 6 Notre Dame versus a play-in winner.

So the Bracketologists are far from a consensus in this regard, too. Plus, after last year I’m not sure what to believe. Remember last season when Joe Lunardi had Indiana on the outside looking in in his final bracket before the show and then the Hoosiers not only turned out to be in but they were in as a No. 10 seed and weren’t sweating as much as Lunardi would have had them sweat.

It also didn’t hurt that Indiana was announced in one of the first brackets revealed on TV. It’s always nice when you’re on the bubble to not have to wait until that final region is revealed.
If Indiana is a 4 seed, let’s look at some of the other potential 13 seeds out there. Lunardi’s other 13’s are Stephen F. Austin, Stony Brook and Northern Iowa. Palm has Stony Brook, South Dakota State and Northern Iowa. Mast has Akron, Yale, Iona and South Dakota State.

So how has Indiana fared as a No. 4 seed in the past?

The most recent time was 2012 when the Hoosiers were a No. 4 seed in Portland, won two games and lost to Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen in Atlanta.

Prior to that it was the 2001 NCAA Tournament, the first for then interim coach Mike Davis. IU lost to No. 13 seed Kent State in that one. It also wasn’t good in 1988 when the No. 4 seeded Hoosiers lost to Richmond. In 1984, IU won two games as the No. 4 seed.

The only time IU has been a No. 3 seed was a bad NCAA Tournament memory for the Hoosiers. IU lost in 1986 to Cleveland State.

So I still think it’s up in the air between a 3 and a 4 seed. It will depend on what the committee thinks about the Big Ten. Let’s just say I won’t be surprised if come Sunday the Hoosiers are a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

But like always I want to know what you think.

Where do you think Indiana will be seeded on Sunday?