National Title Odds---IU versus Maryland

[rebelhoosier848891 9,588]

We all know it's just a guess at this point and IU is not even done recruiting yet---but I cannot understand all the Maryland hype both to win the Big Ten or even a National Championship.  One recent oddsmaker has Maryland with a 9/1 chance to win the National title with Duke, UK, and UNC all close behind at 10/1 odds. IU came in at 25/1 odds to win it all. My question is why Maryland over IU?  I thought we were basically equal to them last year and I think they lost Dez Wells---a key senior leader.  They have talent coming in but it is young and will need to learn to play defense. We have an experienced veteran group returning and I see us as equal to or better than them.  What's your thoughts Hoosier Nation?

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

I wouldn't call us anything near equal to them last year. We may have played them close in our games, but that's more about matchups than us being equal.

[swatford 1,235]

I'm also not sold on the Maryland bandwagon. I think they lost more in Dez Wells than most people think. Sure Sulaimon and Stone are great pick ups but does it make you unanimous favorites to win the conference? I think not.

[FindEndNow 198]

Yes. I think it is Maryland and then everyone else right now. With Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan fighting after that. Melo Trimble reminds me A LOT of Trey Burke who ended up winning B1G player of the year and lead UM to the Nat'l Title game. Sulaimon is a great defender that can hit the 3. Layman can shoot is a possible 1st round pick. They have a good transfer coming in. They have a big time recruit coming in. They have experience coming back just like we do... except their experience played better defense than ours.

[HoosierAloha 30,020]

More than half of Maryland's wins in the B1G last season were by two possessions or less. They were the #2 "luckiest" team in KenPom's ratings.

@MSU (68-66 2OT)
Vs NW (68-67)
Vs PSU (64-58)
Vs IU (68-66)
@PSU (76-73)
Vs Neb (69-65)
Vs Wis (59-53)
@Neb (64-61)
Vs IU (75-69) (neutral court)

I believe Dez Wells, and the refs in some cases, played a major role in closing out those games. They add several more talented players in Stone, Sulaimon, and the transfer from Georgia Tech. I think they are the favorites but a lot will depend on if they can replace Dez Wells as a leader and closer.

[MikeRoberts 6,858]

More than half of Maryland's wins in the B1G last season were by two possessions or less. They were the #2 "luckiest" team in KenPom's ratings.

@MSU (68-66 2OT)
Vs NW (68-67)
Vs PSU (64-58)
Vs IU (68-66)
@PSU (76-73)
Vs Neb (69-65)
Vs Wis (59-53)
@Neb (64-61)
Vs IU (75-69) (neutral court)

I believe Dez Wells, and the refs in some cases, played a major role in closing out those games. They add several more talented players in Stone, Sulaimon, and the transfer from Georgia Tech. I think they are the favorites but a lot will depend on if they can replace Dez Wells as a leader and closer.

ken Pom has a luck rating? I wouldn't call closing out tight games luck

[rebelhoosier848891 9,588]

Good discussion. My feeling was that they won a lot of close games that we lost close---- and to me they didn't play defense much better than we did. I am not on their bandwagon----and think Dez is a bigger loss than people think.  I predict they will NOT win the conference or the National Championship.

[HoosierAloha 30,020]

ken Pom has a luck rating? I wouldn't call closing out tight games luck

I would call it luck when an opponent misses a FT that percentages say he should have made or calls mysteriously go your way. There's a luck factor in everything. Sometimes the ball just bounces your way. In 2013-2014 Maryland finished as the 328 "luckiest" team while going 17-15.

Edit: I'm not saying luck alone determines if a team wins/loses. Players still have to make plays but in some circumstances your team can only hope and pray.

[Uspshoosier 44,531]

Good discussion. My feeling was that they won a lot of close games that we lost close---- and to me they didn't play defense much better than we did. I am not on their bandwagon----and think Dez is a bigger loss than people think. I predict they will NOT win the conference or the National Championship.

marylands defense was 40th according to ken Pom, while our defense was 214th.

[MartintheMopMan 7,765]

ken Pom has a luck rating? I wouldn't call closing out tight games luck

Luck is defined as "A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky)."

 

Plainly, you should only win about 50% of your close games, so if you are winning a lot more then you're a little lucky. 

[BGleas 7,880]

I think Maryland deserves to be the conference favorite and a highly ranked team, but with that said, I also believe the Dez Wells loss is being way undersold nationally. As was mentioned, they played a lot of close games last year, and many of them were against average at best teams, and quite often it was Dez Wells making the winning plays.

This will be a different team next year. If Suliamon starts then we're talking about 3 new starters. I also am not sure I love Layman at the 3. They're extremely talented, and have a lot of depth, but I also don't think they're runaway favorites for the league. Favorites? Yes. But it won't be easy. This is not going to be like Wisconsin last year just running away with it. More like IU in 12-13.

[rebelhoosier848891 9,588]

marylands defense was 40th according to ken Pom, while our defense was 214th.

 

I do like it when posters bring out the facts.  I sure didn't see the 40th ranked defense when we played them. They must have really brought it in some of their other games.  They also played a few of the better Big Ten teams when those teams had key injuries which helped their stats---an example was at MSU when they won early.
 

[FindEndNow 198]

I do like it when posters bring out the facts. I sure didn't see the 40th ranked defense when we played them. They must have really brought it in some of their other games. They also played a few of the better Big Ten teams when those teams had key injuries which helped their stats---an example was at MSU when they won early.

IU matched up well. We also spot stupidly good at AH and hit 18 3's.

[ou812dude 3,326]

IU matched up well. We also spot stupidly good at AH and hit 18 3's.

fin?

will you homer up and admit that you are a CBSer?

[FindEndNow 198]

fin?
will you homer up and admit that you are a CBSer?

Yea. I'm Yogi11 lol. I never actually noticed the "d" in my bane til you pointed it out haha.

[ou812dude 3,326]

Yea. I'm Yogi11 lol. I never actually noticed the "d" in my bane til you pointed it out haha.

Christ...

[FindEndNow 198]

Christ...

I use my phone only so there are always some misspellings, random words and random letters.

[ou812dude 3,326]

hey fin...

you probably know me as dissindalet...

or..

[FindEndNow 198]

hey fin...
you probably know me as dissindalet...
or..

who are you on there?

[ou812dude 3,326]

who are you on there?

I just told you...

 

I'm diss on CBS...

 

I'm a legend in my own mind...