Fire Coach Woodson Thread

[Juwan Moye 358]

16 minutes ago, IUHoosierJoe said:

True, but in 2021 and 2022 we also had a guy that hit 59% of his 2-pointers, at a very high volume.  So, while you always need to shoot some 3-pointers, you're completely ignoring metrics and common sense to actually prefer a 30-some percentage 3-point shot over a 59% 2-point shot.

I’m not ignoring anything, you need to go back and read the discussion if you lack context.

The point is that we’re somehow going to be a top-15 offense because we’re going to take more threes. Which the data of the last 3 years doesn’t come close to supporting.

So if you think we’ll magically be a team taking even an average number of threes next year then the one lacking common sense would not be me.

And to refute your basic point even though it was off the mark: Kopp shot 44%+ his senior year, so a Kopp three was a VERY efficient shot that we didn’t prioritize. I assume because it’s not our coach’s job to get guys shots.

Edited April 22, 2024 by Juwan Moye

[str8baller 5,713]

9 hours ago, AH1971 said:

He’s going to be playing out more on the perimeter anyway 

What's your source for this assertion? 

 

We had this exact claim from you and others this time last season regarding Ware. And in fact Ware was capable of playing out on the perimeter shooting 43% from 3 yet he rarely ever played out there shooting only 1.3 per game and was mostly in the lane with Reneau. So you'll have to excuse those of us who don't quite believe the same pitch being sold last year at this time when it turned out to be just the wishful musings of internet fans and not some offensive philosophical shift by Coach Woodson.

[Juwan Moye 358]

36 minutes ago, str8baller said:

What's your source for this assertion? 

 

We had this exact claim from you and others this time last season regarding Ware. And in fact Ware was capable of playing out on the perimeter shooting 43% from 3 yet he rarely ever played out there shooting only 1.3 per game and was mostly in the lane with Reneau. So you'll have to excuse those of us who don't quite believe the same pitch being sold last year at this time when it turned out to be just the wishful musings of internet fans and not some offensive philosophical shift by Coach Woodson.

People like making up stuff, or building straw men, to support what they WANT to happen versus what history has shown us is more likely to happen.

[RaceToTheTop 26,736]

1 hour ago, str8baller said:

What's your source for this assertion? 

 

We had this exact claim from you and others this time last season regarding Ware. And in fact Ware was capable of playing out on the perimeter shooting 43% from 3 yet he rarely ever played out there shooting only 1.3 per game and was mostly in the lane with Reneau. So you'll have to excuse those of us who don't quite believe the same pitch being sold last year at this time when it turned out to be just the wishful musings of internet fans and not some offensive philosophical shift by Coach Woodson.

Mathematically speaking, it's very rare for a big who takes a jump in shooting on the perimeter one year to not take more perimeter shots the following year.  11% of Reneau's shots as a freshman were outside the paint, last year that number was 18%.

What's interesting is that IU probably had enough outside shooting from the 3/4/5 starters.  For the season, Reneau, Ware, Mgbako were 82 of 238 (34%).  That's 34% on 7.5 threes per game in what amounts to 84.6 minutes per game.  If the rest of the team had shot at that rate, IU would have shot 34% from three on 18 threes per game instead of the 32% on 15 threes we did.  It's rare that a team has guards and a bench that actually can't keep up with the perimeter shooting of the 3/4/5 and it's not like the 3/4/5 were even that good from three for IU.

[RaceToTheTop 26,736]

26 minutes ago, Juwan Moye said:

People like making up stuff, or building straw men, to support what they WANT to happen versus what history has shown us is more likely to happen.

I mean, cool, but we do know that Reneau shot more from the perimeter last year than he did as a freshman.  So there is that history.  No one is saying that Reneau is going to spend the majority of the time on the perimeter, because he isn't.  But it's not exactly going out on a limb to see he take more perimeter shots next year than last since it already happened from his freshman to sophomore year.

[AH1971 1,663]

2 hours ago, Juwan Moye said:

Going back and re reading his point was simply that IU will not have a top-15 offense this year and he was refuting some questionable points brought up by another poster to try and defend the top-15 prediction.

The finer points here don’t matter much to that discussion IMO. You could assume growth in 3pt% and 2pt% and we’re still not a top-15 offense unless those numbers are SUBSTANTIALLY better than last year.

My caveat for having a top 15 offense is Rice and Carlyle shooting bare minimum 35% from 3 on volume. That also includes Mgbako duplicating his conference stats from last season. Throw in Ballo and Reneau who are almost automatic at the rim and that's a top 15 KenPom effcieint offense. When you have 3 guys playing the bulk of the minutes shooting 35%+ from 3 on volume you're going to have an efficient offense. Can't explain it any more clearly than that. 

[RaceToTheTop 26,736]

2 hours ago, Juwan Moye said:

Going back and re reading his point was simply that IU will not have a top-15 offense this year and he was refuting some questionable points brought up by another poster to try and defend the top-15 prediction.

The finer points here don’t matter much to that discussion IMO. You could assume growth in 3pt% and 2pt% and we’re still not a top-15 offense unless those numbers are SUBSTANTIALLY better than last year.

I never stated nor defended saying that IU would have a top 15 offense.  I addressed the point of his argument that I had an issue with, nothing more, nothing less.

[Juwan Moye 358]

4 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I mean, cool, but we do know that Reneau shot more from the perimeter last year than he did as a freshman.  So there is that history.  No one is saying that Reneau is going to spend the majority of the time on the perimeter, because he isn't.  But it's not exactly going out on a limb to see he take more perimeter shots next year than last since it already happened from his freshman to sophomore year.

The poster in question said “I’ll bet anything Reneau’s production stagnates if not dips with a better back court. He’s going to be playing out more on the perimeter anyway”.

Which is at best a straw man as there’s zero evidence to support that Malik will “be playing out more on the perimeter”.

 

You make a separate point which is “he’ll take more 3 point shots” which, may be the case, but given this whole discussion started from a proclamation that IU will have a top-15 offense, none of it really matters towards that.

But more importantly: Fire Mike Woodson 

[AH1971 1,663]

9 hours ago, iu eyedoc said:

2) The suggested 35% from the teams best shooters, from 3 is not a floor opening percentage.

3)read  @AH1971 posts.

We just going to ignore Mgbako shooting 38% from 3 on good volume over a 20 game conference slate? I will assure you opposing defense's aren't going to sag off three 35+% volume 3 point shooters. 

[Juwan Moye 358]

2 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

My caveat for having a top 15 offense is Rice and Carlyle shooting bare minimum 35% from 3 on volume. That also includes Mgbako duplicating his conference stats from last season. Throw in Ballo and Reneau who are almost automatic at the rim and that's a top 15 KenPom effcieint offense. When you have 3 guys playing the bulk of the minutes shooting 35%+ from 3 on volume you're going to have an efficient offense. Can't explain it more clearly any further than that. 

So what sort of volume are you expecting? We took 15.5/game last year. I haven't done the math but I'm 99% sure that it still wont add up. 35% from three isnt a good number, thats average.

For context, all 3 of Baylors starting guards were over 42% last season. THATS shooting.

[AH1971 1,663]

3 minutes ago, Juwan Moye said:

The poster in question said “I’ll bet anything Reneau’s production stagnates if not dips with a better back court. He’s going to be playing out more on the perimeter anyway”.

Which is at best a straw man as there’s zero evidence to support that Malik will “be playing out more on the perimeter”.

 

You make a separate point which is “he’ll take more 3 point shots” which, may be the case, but given this whole discussion started from a proclamation that IU will have a top-15 offense, none of it really matters towards that.

But more importantly: Fire Mike Woodson 

Not looking to build a strawman, simply what I believe. That's Reneau's path to the NBA. I believe he'll have a significantly larger perimeter role next year as he continues to develop an outside game; see jump from Freshman year to Sophomore year. Not out of the question think a player can't still continue to develop in college on top of expanding their role. 

[Juwan Moye 358]

Just now, AH1971 said:

Not looking to build a strawman, simply what I believe. That's Reneau's path to the NBA. I believe he'll have a significantly larger perimeter role next year as he continues to develop an outside game; see jump from Freshman year to Sophomore year. Not out of the question think a player can't still continue to develop in college on top of expanding their role. 

Cool, believing that is fine. Hell, I’ll do you one better: I HOPE you’re right.

But the probabilities aren’t on our side here so all of the things you believe will happen to turn us into a top-15 offensive unit CAN happen, it’s just unlikely that they do.

If we can agree there then I’m more than happy. :)

[AH1971 1,663]

5 minutes ago, Juwan Moye said:

So what sort of volume are you expecting? We took 15.5/game last year. I haven't done the math but I'm 99% sure that it still wont add up. 35% from three isnt a good number, thats average.

For context, all 3 of Baylors starting guards were over 42% last season. THATS shooting.

7.5-8.5 makes on 22-25 attempts. 

[AH1971 1,663]

Just now, Juwan Moye said:

Cool, believing that is fine. Hell, I’ll do you one better: I HOPE you’re right.

But the probabilities aren’t on our side here so all of the things you believe will happen to turn us into a top-15 offensive unit CAN happen, it’s just unlikely that they do.

If we can agree there then I’m more than happy. :)

Go for it

[Juwan Moye 358]

2 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

7.5-8.5 makes on 22-25 attempts. 

I’d happily bet $100 that we don’t average  22+ three point attempts a game next season year.

[AH1971 1,663]

5 minutes ago, Juwan Moye said:

I’d happily bet $100 that we don’t average  22+ three point attempts a game next season year.

Name your charity

[Home Jersey 9,225]

13 minutes ago, Juwan Moye said:

I’d happily bet $100 that we don’t average  22+ three point attempts a game next season year.

If we average 22+ 3 point attempts per game next year I will get a tramp stamp tattoo of Mike Woodson's face

[Chris007 46,614]

9 minutes ago, Home Jersey said:

If we average 22+ 3 point attempts per game next year I will get a tramp stamp tattoo of Mike Woodson's face

As Woody told me once numbers are just numbers, I believe in the eye test.

My eye test is our offense won't change and no way we shoot 22 threes a game. I've always said we need to shoot 25 a game, so I would be thrilled with 22. I'm guessing we will be in the high teens. 

[Juwan Moye 358]

22 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

Name your charity

Mayo Clinic (tried a handshake emoji but it’s not allowed)

[AH1971 1,663]

Just now, Juwan Moye said:

Mayo Clinic (tried a handshake emoji but it’s not allowed)

Got it. Will send you PM at the conclusion of the season with instructions on where/how to send. 

Autism Society of Indiana in honor my stepson.