Coronavirus and Its Impact

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15 hours ago, Golfman25 said:

Please cite your source.  14 days is within the end of the incubation period.  Time to death is much longer, I just can’t find the article it’s in.  I may have posted it here, or somewhere, earlier. 

Better idea, since you made the initial claim, you cite your source.

The whole '14 days is within the end of incubation period' is cherry bit an end piece of data.  You know as well as I do that the average is 5 or 6 days and that 14 days is an anomaly.

Secondly, you made the statement that MOST people who died were infected four weeks ago;  even if we were to accept your statement that it takes an average of four weeks to die from coronavirus, that doesn't mean "most" people who died contracted it four weeks ago.

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In a closed in, tight working space, this kind of thing can happen.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/20/838943211/73-of-inmates-at-an-ohio-prison-test-positive-for-coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR1ZNQ3B0k1S1Wlj2L0I39LEpgOTyfHAYTD61dyzTcE3X7LVHUnSMhnl3wQ

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15 hours ago, JSHoosier said:

They have the highest death rate among Scandinavian countries.  They trail Italy and the UK, but they're not exactly a success story.

bump for the bump and run Golfman.  And they also just jumped from 175 in a million to 192 in a million.

[BlueDevil 8,643]

Cass County has has a HUGE spike. We went from being one of the last counties with a case to 100 pretty fast and yesterday ended at 138. Today now *unoficially* 198 cases. Lot of people blame Tyson who is still in production.


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[Golfman25 4,652]

37 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

bump for the bump and run Golfman.  And they also just jumped from 175 in a million to 192 in a million.

I made no comments on Sweden.  Just pointed to their data.  

[Golfman25 4,652]

1 hour ago, brumdog45 said:

Better idea, since you made the initial claim, you cite your source.

The whole '14 days is within the end of incubation period' is cherry bit an end piece of data.  You know as well as I do that the average is 5 or 6 days and that 14 days is an anomaly.

Secondly, you made the statement that MOST people who died were infected four weeks ago;  even if we were to accept your statement that it takes an average of four weeks to die from coronavirus, that doesn't mean "most" people who died contracted it four weeks ago.

I have found people who need to debate the meaning of "most" are losing.  

As for my source, I go with The WHO (no not the band).  https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Avg incubation pd. is 5-6 days.  Mild cases resolve in about 2 weeks.  Severe cases in 3-6 weeks.  Death 2-8 weeks from symptom onset.  

So that's at least 3 weeks and definitely not an average of 14 days from infection as you claim.   ("Case studies have shown that the average time between suspected infection and death is 14 days." )  But that's ok, we all make mistakes.  

Bottom line, death is a way lagging indicator by several weeks.  

[Class of '66 Old Fart 80,940]

1 hour ago, BlueDevil said:

Cass County has has a HUGE spike. We went from being one of the last counties with a case to 100 pretty fast and yesterday ended at 138. Today now *unoficially* 198 cases. Lot of people blame Tyson who is still in production.

 

Placing the blame on Tyson is absolutely legitimate.  My wife spoke with the wife of a Cass County physician over the weekend and was told Cass Co. was going to spike and it was directly related to Tyson employees.  And don't think Tyson has got clean hands; they knew what would happen.  They've already suspended production at 2 separate plants in Iowa, one as early as April 6 because of employee absenteeism related to the virus.

[BlueDevil 8,643]

Placing the blame on Tyson is absolutely legitimate.  My wife spoke with the wife of a Cass County physician over the weekend and was told Cass Co. was going to spike and it was directly related to Tyson employees.  And don't think Tyson has got clean hands; they knew what would happen.  They've already suspended production at 2 separate plants in Iowa, one as early as April 6 because of employee absenteeism related to the virus.

Just got off the phone with a friend who works out there asking where he could get tested. He said he’s starting to feel sick and can’t smell or taste anything but Tyson keeps telling him to come to work. It’s also someone we’ve been in contact with in the last week or so.


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[TheWatShot 13,335]

Is it wrong to hope certain people get the virus? Not die from it, but get really, really sick from it? I'm getting really tired of people in my area downplaying it and mocking anyone who tries to be cautious. At the risk of politicizing this, the area where I live would hardly be considered progressive and isn't very diverse. A lot of people are pissed about all the shutdowns and saying this is all a big overreaction because they don't know anyone with the virus, saying we should all still be working, social distancing is dumb, if we die, we die, etc. I just kind of wish it would hit closer to home with these morons, but maybe I just need to accept that you can't fix stupid. 

[mdn82 25,456]

Over 180,000 deaths worldwide so far due to this. This is with advanced medicine and quite a bit of social restrictions in place. Incredible.


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[mdn82 25,456]

Is it wrong to hope certain people get the virus? Not die from it, but get really, really sick from it? I'm getting really tired of people in my area downplaying it and mocking anyone who tries to be cautious. At the risk of politicizing this, the area where I live would hardly be considered progressive and isn't very diverse. A lot of people are pissed about all the shutdowns and saying this is all a big overreaction because they don't know anyone with the virus, saying we should all still be working, social distancing is dumb, if we die, we die, etc. I just kind of wish it would hit closer to home with these morons, but maybe I just need to accept that you can't fix stupid. 

If you are wrong, I would be an ******* too.


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54 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

I have found people who need to debate the meaning of "most" are losing.  

As for my source, I go with The WHO (no not the band).  https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Avg incubation pd. is 5-6 days.  Mild cases resolve in about 2 weeks.  Severe cases in 3-6 weeks.  Death 2-8 weeks from symptom onset.  

So that's at least 3 weeks and definitely not an average of 14 days from infection as you claim.   ("Case studies have shown that the average time between suspected infection and death is 14 days." )  But that's ok, we all make mistakes.  

Bottom line, death is a way lagging indicator by several weeks.  

I have found people who use the word “most” to be the ones who only speak in hyperbole and exaggeration.  
 

Thanks for the link.  The one I just found was published by the telegraph (UK newspaper) citing a study of China that put the average days of death after infection in at 18.5 days.  While that isn’t working out to two weeks average ( throw in 5.5 for days from infection average and we get 24 days average, it also does not come out to your statement of “most people were infected 4 weeks ago” when the average person was 3 1/2 weeks ago.  
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/12/coronavirus-kills-average-185-days/amp/

And in terms of your point of looking at inputs and not outputs......both sets of days must be looked at.  The study cited above has people once placed in the hospital taking 22 days on average before being discharged.  That creates a back log on the available space in hospitals,  

and there has not been much change in the inputs anyway.  There were in fact more confirmed cases on Mon/Tues if this week than last.  Even the model that underestimating the number of deaths says that the earliest dates that states should consider opening is after May   25th for over half of the states and recommends no state could even relax measures before May 1.

[Golfman25 4,652]

6 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

 

 it also does not come out to your statement of “most people were infected 4 weeks ago” when the average person was 3 1/2 weeks ago.  
 

That's what we call splitting hairs.  But if it make you feel "right" i'm ok with it.  

[JSHoosier 19,559]

56 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Is it wrong to hope certain people get the virus? Not die from it, but get really, really sick from it? I'm getting really tired of people in my area downplaying it and mocking anyone who tries to be cautious. At the risk of politicizing this, the area where I live would hardly be considered progressive and isn't very diverse. A lot of people are pissed about all the shutdowns and saying this is all a big overreaction because they don't know anyone with the virus, saying we should all still be working, social distancing is dumb, if we die, we die, etc. I just kind of wish it would hit closer to home with these morons, but maybe I just need to accept that you can't fix stupid. 

It may be wrong, but I'd be an arse too.  Some people do need it hit closer to home to grasp it IMO, as much as I hate to say that.  I remember my mom being in the hospital for what they said was flu and pneunomia, but not making much progress with some pretty hardcore antibiotics and eventually needing ventilated; a person that works in a hospital said as they've talked to people about this they think it may have been COVID she had and I know some of what we saw fits with this virus.

My area is similar, pretty rural and definitely conservative and downplaying the risks and saying we need to open things back up.  You can't fix stupid, and turns out you can't quarantine it either.

52 minutes ago, mdn82 said:

Over 180,000 deaths worldwide so far due to this. This is with advanced medicine and quite a bit of social restrictions in place. Incredible.


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It's deadly and highly contagious, even good healthcare systems are having trouble with this virus.  It'd look worse without the precautions in place.

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46 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

That's what we call splitting hairs.  But if it make you feel "right" i'm ok with it.  

The mark of exaggeration is when some gets called on it and call it 'splitting hairs'.  And it's not about whether it makes 'me' feel right.  All arguments stand and fall on their own merits.  I was wrong on the 14 days when the average was shown to be about 24 just like you were incorrect to say 'most people were infected 28 days ago'.

But ultimately your point was that we should look at inputs and not outputs.  As recent as April 17th we had over 32,000 cases reported in a single day.  We have not been under 25,000 cases in a day since March 30th.  At best we are just barely past the peak.....so using the 24 infection to death period we are talking about, the highest daily deaths might not have been seen yet.  And this is with huge restrictions.....do you seriously think a rush to reopen will not cause a spike?  Take Georgia for instance....do you see a state that should be opening on Friday? (# of case data is all on worldometer, I know you know where that is located).

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/

Case map of Georgia above.  Monday had the second highest single day of reported coronavirus cases for the state.

 

[Golfman25 4,652]

42 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

The mark of exaggeration is when some gets called on it and call it 'splitting hairs'.  And it's not about whether it makes 'me' feel right.  All arguments stand and fall on their own merits.  I was wrong on the 14 days when the average was shown to be about 24 just like you were incorrect to say 'most people were infected 28 days ago'.

But ultimately your point was that we should look at inputs and not outputs.  As recent as April 17th we had over 32,000 cases reported in a single day.  We have not been under 25,000 cases in a day since March 30th.  At best we are just barely past the peak.....so using the 24 infection to death period we are talking about, the highest daily deaths might not have been seen yet.  And this is with huge restrictions.....do you seriously think a rush to reopen will not cause a spike?  Take Georgia for instance....do you see a state that should be opening on Friday? (# of case data is all on worldometer, I know you know where that is located).

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/

Case map of Georgia above.  Monday had the second highest single day of reported coronavirus cases for the state.

 

I'll let GA do GA.  https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Let them try.  We'll see what happens.  

[mdn82 25,456]

I doubt we see a ton of movement in Georgia. Doesn’t sound like too many are running to jump behind the governor on this one.


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[Chips&Dipo 1,448]

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/health/2020/04/22/tyson-logansport-closes-meat-plant-shuts-down-due-coronavirus/3006225001/

[Class of '66 Old Fart 80,940]

37 minutes ago, Andowen1990IU said:

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/health/2020/04/22/tyson-logansport-closes-meat-plant-shuts-down-due-coronavirus/3006225001/

I commented earlier but this didn't have to happen.  Tyson has previously closed multiple plants in Iowa because of absenteeism due to the virus.  One such plant was closed on April 6.  They knew this was likely to happen at the Logansport plant but did nothing and it was business as usual.  Local people have made the claim they were pressured to continue working even though they had the symptoms.  

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38 minutes ago, Andowen1990IU said:

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/health/2020/04/22/tyson-logansport-closes-meat-plant-shuts-down-due-coronavirus/3006225001/

Yeah, meat plants seem to be getting especially hard.  I don’t know if is more so on pork processing plants but there have been a couple that have had major issues.

Can say that locally meat prices are definitely going up. About the same time the Smithfield factory in South Dakota shut down, I put in an order through Omaha Steakhouse.  I was surprised how many items that were out of stock — most items at the time that were out were items that I imagine would have been (spiral cut hams, large smoked brisket).  Haven’t checked recently but have to imagine that they don’t have everything fully stocked.  I do know that there has been a local produce/meat online service set up in the county from local farmers could sell their goods.  Unfortunately there aren’t as lot of local farmers that slaughter their own meat,