Coronavirus and Its Impact

[8bucks 6,460]

Sounds like our testing has really ramped up and we have in the last week tested more than S Korea has in total. I this is going to drive our cases up but we need to find those who have this


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners

[Golfman25 5,448]

57 minutes ago, Class of '66 Old Fart said:

I guess because I'm old I'm missing something in your comment.  I need to take precautions and isolate myself but the virus isn't the problem????????????????????   And you really expect us old fogies to isolate ourselves for 12-18 months?  Are you sure you're feeling well?

For you old farts, the virus is a problem.  For everyone else, it's not.  My mother was immune suppressed.  When we had her grandchildren where old enough to attend school and such, if they had even a hint of something, they didn't see each other.  She stayed inside a lot, usually because she was feeling chitty.  But I was Uber, Grub hub, and ppod before any of those where around.  Last place an old fart wants to be is in a big crowd.  Take appropriate precautions. 

The other option is to close the county for 6-12 months and deal with 20 years of economic carnage thereafter.      

[Lebowski 2,744]

2 hours ago, Golfman25 said:

The virus isn't the problem.  And the sooner we get used to that, the better we'll be.  Old people and immune suppressed people are at incredible risk.  So guess, what -- they need to take precautions that others don't.  Basically isolate themselves until the systems are in place to take care of them.   Get the testing and treatments out there.   Ramp up hospital capacity.   And in 12-18 months the vaccine.  

As of today, according to Hopkins, mortality rate is about 4.3% and in Italy it's running north of 9%.  

I would say the virus is a major problem for every human on the planet if those percentages are correct.  It's completely foolish to think otherwise.  

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,676]

As of today, according to Hopkins, mortality rate is about 4.3% and in Italy it's running north of 9%.  

I would say the virus is a major problem for every human on the planet if those percentages are correct.  It's completely foolish to think otherwise.  

The problem with all the numbers is that we have no clue how many actually have it or have had it.


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app

[Golfman25 5,448]

2 minutes ago, Lebowski said:

As of today, according to Hopkins, mortality rate is about 4.3% and in Italy it's running north of 9%.  

I would say the virus is a major problem for every human on the planet if those percentages are correct.  It's completely foolish to think otherwise.  

Well Dr. Fauci as stated it's about 1% of total cases, including those we don't track.  But it is also heavily weighted towards the older population.  

[Lebowski 2,744]

1 minute ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

The problem with all the numbers is that we have no clue how many actually have it or have had it.


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app

With the current known number every person on the planet that test positive has a 0.2% chance of fatality.  The percentages go higher depending on your age, comorbidities, and sex.  Unfortunately, these are just facts.  I've been pretty constant on here saying we'll probably get a better understanding of the situation come mid April because this virus is exponential and I still feel that way.  

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,676]

With the current known number every person on the planet that test positive has a 0.2% chance of fatality.  The percentages go higher depending on your age, comorbidities, and sex.  Unfortunately, these are just facts.  I've been pretty constant on here saying we'll probably get a better understanding of the situation come mid April because this virus is exponential and I still feel that way.  

I’m saying the fatality numbers are lower than we can know. Not everyone can get tested and not everyone has. We have no clue when it started and how long it was spreading before we ever knew it was even a thing. It could have been in the US in December for all we know.


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app

[Lebowski 2,744]

24 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

Well Dr. Fauci as stated it's about 1% of total cases, including those we don't track.  But it is also heavily weighted towards the older population.  

I completely misread your quote here, I thought you called me Dr. Fauci!  Or did you?  So far, it's 100% that 0.2% of those that contract COVID-19 regardless of demographic are fatal.  And we don't really have a complete understanding of the situation here in the states until about mid April.  Some local governments are taking the right measures based on known scientific data on how to handle these kinds of viruses.  But places like Tennessee, Florida, and Texas are probably going to see some very large numbers of fatalities in about three months.

[Lebowski 2,744]

15 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

I’m saying the fatality numbers are lower than we can know. Not everyone can get tested and not everyone has. We have no clue when it started and how long it was spreading before we ever knew it was even a thing. It could have been in the US in December for all we know.


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app

I think we would have already have seen a problem with the our hospital capacity/infrastructure at this point based on the way the virus spreads so I don't agree with that assessment.  Our first known case was back in January and it's been spreading as predicted by our medical professionals.  I'm not saying your wrong but based on the virus being exponential we kind of already know when it arrived here in the states.  Or at least have a pretty solid starting point.   

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,676]

I think we would have already have seen a problem with the our hospital capacity/infrastructure at this point based on the way the virus spreads so I don't agree with that assessment.  Our first known case was back in January and it's been spreading as predicted by our medical professionals.  I'm not saying your wrong but based on the virus being exponential we kind of already know when it arrived here in the states.  Or at least have a pretty solid starting point.   

It doesn’t always put people in hospitals. The Chinese government lied about how long they had known of it in the first place. Lied about the number of cases they knew of there. Lied about it being contagious from human to human in mid January. We know nothing about it. There are thousands upon thousands of unconfirmed cases where people didn’t even know they had it.


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app

[Lebowski 2,744]

11 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

It doesn’t always put people in hospitals. The Chinese government lied about how long they had known of it in the first place. Lied about the number of cases they knew of there. Lied about it being contagious from human to human in mid January. We know nothing about it. There are thousands upon thousands of unconfirmed cases where people didn’t even know they had it.


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app

What we do know is it has a 15% estimate of serious cases that will require hospitalization.  But I think you might be focusing on the wrong thing. 

Yes, the virus only kills a small percentage of those afflicted.  Yes, the flu kills 10s of thousands of people annually.  Yes, 80% of people will experience lightweight symptoms with COVID-19.  Yes the mortality rate of COVID-19 is relatively low.  All of this true, but is immaterial.  They are the wrong numbers to focus on...

This virus is exponential, if you'll notice I've said that consistently.  It's exponential.  That's important.  The nature of exponential math is that the infection rates start slowly, and then goes off like a bomb and overwhelms the hospitals.  

This is where it gets really tricky to explain because some states have taken measures and others have not.  Let's assume Indiana have taken "limited action" for their people.  The way exponential growth works is I have to take the number of confirmed cases in an area and multiply by 10 to account for the cases that are not yet confirmed.  So in Monroe County with 3 (If you want you can add more cases since you believe there are actually more cases not reported.) confirmed case the number of infected people doubles every 3 days as the infections spreads.  So I take 3 and multiply but 2. And then do it again 10 times in total.  The final total equals 3072.  This is known as 2 to the 10th power.  This result is the estimate for the actual cases in Monroe County 30 days from today.  Now I'm going to divide 3072 by the current population of Monroe County.  According to Wikipedia the population is estimated 137,974.  2.2% of the population in Monroe County will be infected in 30 days from now.  Now I'm going to take 15% (460.8) of the 3072 to get the estimate of the serious cases which will require hospitalization and compare it to the number of beds and ventilators available to a hospital in Monroe County.  According to Google IU Bloomington Hospital has 270 staffed beds.  65% of beds are already occupied by patients unrelated to COVID-19.  Most hospitals have an average, 40 or fewer ventilators.  5% of patients require ICU treatment.  There are fewer ICU beds compared to regular beds in hospitals.  There are very few negative pressure areas in any hospital to deal with the containment of airborne diseases.  

IU Bloomington Hospital will have a much greater mortality rate because they won't be able to adequately care for the sick.  And by sick I mean not just COVID-19 patients.  And this will be the case in every town in the US.  In particular the states that haven't taken measures to deal with the exponential growth because the math is very different when measures are taken.  Thankfully, Indiana has taken those measures.  

In regards to China, I mean at this point does it matter they lied?  That's something to talk about at a much later time in my opinion.  

[Golfman25 5,448]

29 minutes ago, Lebowski said:

What we do know is it has a 15% estimate of serious cases that will require hospitalization.  But I think you might be focusing on the wrong thing. 

Yes, the virus only kills a small percentage of those afflicted.  Yes, the flu kills 10s of thousands of people annually.  Yes, 80% of people will experience lightweight symptoms with COVID-19.  Yes the mortality rate of COVID-19 is relatively low.  All of this true, but is immaterial.  They are the wrong numbers to focus on...

This virus is exponential, if you'll notice I've said that consistently.  It's exponential.  That's important.  The nature of exponential math is that the infection rates start slowly, and then goes off like a bomb and overwhelms the hospitals.  

This is where it gets really tricky to explain because some states have taken measures and others have not.  Let's assume Indiana have taken "limited action" for their people.  The way exponential growth works is I have to take the number of confirmed cases in an area and multiply by 10 to account for the cases that are not yet confirmed.  So in Monroe County with 3 (If you want you can add more cases since you believe there are actually more cases not reported.) confirmed case the number of infected people doubles every 3 days as the infections spreads.  So I take 3 and multiply but 2. And then do it again 10 times in total.  The final total equals 3072.  This is known as 2 to the 10th power.  This result is the estimate for the actual cases in Monroe County 30 days from today.  Now I'm going to divide 3072 by the current population of Monroe County.  According to Wikipedia the population is estimated 137,974.  2.2% of the population in Monroe County will be infected in 30 days from now.  Now I'm going to take 15% (460.8) of the 3072 to get the estimate of the serious cases which will require hospitalization and compare it to the number of beds and ventilators available to a hospital in Monroe County.  According to Google IU Bloomington Hospital has 270 staffed beds.  65% of beds are already occupied by patients unrelated to COVID-19.  Most hospitals have an average, 40 or fewer ventilators.  5% of patients require ICU treatment.  There are fewer ICU beds compared to regular beds in hospitals.  There are very few negative pressure areas in any hospital to deal with the containment of airborne diseases.  

IU Bloomington Hospital will have a much greater mortality rate because they won't be able to adequately care for the sick.  And by sick I mean not just COVID-19 patients.  And this will be the case in every town in the US.  In particular the states that haven't taken measures to deal with the exponential growth because the math is very different when measures are taken.  Thankfully, Indiana has taken those measures.  

In regards to China, I mean at this point does it matter they lied?  That's something to talk about at a much later time in my opinion.  

Sure.  But density seems to have a big effect on the rate.  New York city is getting pummeled.  One person can infect a whole busload of people.  We are not yet seeing that it LA -- more spread out and not as much public transportation.  Really need to watch how their numbers progress.  Rural states like Indiana, IL, are seeing large concentrations in their large cities, but not much in the farm counties - where you can still use an isolate and contact system of mitigation.  It's different everywhere.  

[Hoosierfan2017 21,479]

44 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

Sure.  But density seems to have a big effect on the rate.  New York city is getting pummeled.  One person can infect a whole busload of people.  We are not yet seeing that it LA -- more spread out and not as much public transportation.  Really need to watch how their numbers progress.  Rural states like Indiana, IL, are seeing large concentrations in their large cities, but not much in the farm counties - where you can still use an isolate and contact system of mitigation.  It's different everywhere.  

Good point about LA. It has been on the west coast longer than anywhere and it didn't explode in California like it has in NYC. Our spread out population is going to be a major boost.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,676]

What we do know is it has a 15% estimate of serious cases that will require hospitalization.  But I think you might be focusing on the wrong thing. 
Yes, the virus only kills a small percentage of those afflicted.  Yes, the flu kills 10s of thousands of people annually.  Yes, 80% of people will experience lightweight symptoms with COVID-19.  Yes the mortality rate of COVID-19 is relatively low.  All of this true, but is immaterial.  They are the wrong numbers to focus on...
This virus is exponential, if you'll notice I've said that consistently.  It's exponential.  That's important.  The nature of exponential math is that the infection rates start slowly, and then goes off like a bomb and overwhelms the hospitals.  
This is where it gets really tricky to explain because some states have taken measures and others have not.  Let's assume Indiana have taken "limited action" for their people.  The way exponential growth works is I have to take the number of confirmed cases in an area and multiply by 10 to account for the cases that are not yet confirmed.  So in Monroe County with 3 (If you want you can add more cases since you believe there are actually more cases not reported.) confirmed case the number of infected people doubles every 3 days as the infections spreads.  So I take 3 and multiply but 2. And then do it again 10 times in total.  The final total equals 3072.  This is known as 2 to the 10th power.  This result is the estimate for the actual cases in Monroe County 30 days from today.  Now I'm going to divide 3072 by the current population of Monroe County.  According to Wikipedia the population is estimated 137,974.  2.2% of the population in Monroe County will be infected in 30 days from now.  Now I'm going to take 15% (460.8) of the 3072 to get the estimate of the serious cases which will require hospitalization and compare it to the number of beds and ventilators available to a hospital in Monroe County.  According to Google IU Bloomington Hospital has 270 staffed beds.  65% of beds are already occupied by patients unrelated to COVID-19.  Most hospitals have an average, 40 or fewer ventilators.  5% of patients require ICU treatment.  There are fewer ICU beds compared to regular beds in hospitals.  There are very few negative pressure areas in any hospital to deal with the containment of airborne diseases.  

IU Bloomington Hospital will have a much greater mortality rate because they won't be able to adequately care for the sick.  And by sick I mean not just COVID-19 patients.  And this will be the case in every town in the US.  In particular the states that haven't taken measures to deal with the exponential growth because the math is very different when measures are taken.  Thankfully, Indiana has taken those measures.  

In regards to China, I mean at this point does it matter they lied?  That's something to talk about at a much later time in my opinion.  

Or the infections don’t go off like a bomb but people going to the doctor in fear of having it do.


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app

[Golfman25 5,448]

1 hour ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

Good point about LA. It has been on the west coast longer than anywhere and it didn't explode in California like it has in NYC. Our spread out population is going to be a major boost.

And very little public transportation as compared to NY.  

[rcbowla 7,126]

Or the infections don’t go off like a bomb but people going to the doctor in fear of having it do.


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app

Had people known nothing about this virus even existing a majority of people that have had symptoms would have never even made contact with hospitals in the first place would be my guess. Would have been like, "damn flu" and went on about their lives. The fear is driving the otherwise unnecessary visits/calls and without that the hospitals could focus more on the people that truly need the attention.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

[raorIU 320]

Had people known nothing about this virus even existing a majority of people that have had symptoms would have never even made contact with hospitals in the first place would be my guess. Would have been like, "damn flu" and went on about their lives. The fear is driving the otherwise unnecessary visits/calls and without that the hospitals could focus more on the people that truly need the attention.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

Yeah, that's not even remotely close to what is happening. Hospitals did see that occur initially, and that definitely had a negative impact on supplies. But this week, in NYC and other locations, hospitals are being overrun with critical patients - people that must be treated in the hospital. The capacity / resource from here out is not fear-driven, minor cases, it's the spike in severely symptomatic patients.

Here's an example from Georgia, near Atlanta I think:

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/489374-atlanta-mayor-explains-decision-to-impose-stricter-restrictions-than

[HinnyHoosier 4,990]

Check out this screenshot. The spike is hitting NYC, but the kicker is we still don’t know how far into it we/they are. And resources were critical before the surge even got here. This is what unpreparedness and years of misappropriated funding looks like.


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners

[Lebowski 2,744]

14 hours ago, Golfman25 said:

Sure.  But density seems to have a big effect on the rate.  New York city is getting pummeled.  One person can infect a whole busload of people.  We are not yet seeing that it LA -- more spread out and not as much public transportation.  Really need to watch how their numbers progress.  Rural states like Indiana, IL, are seeing large concentrations in their large cities, but not much in the farm counties - where you can still use an isolate and contact system of mitigation.  It's different everywhere.  

NYC is the epicenter.  Governor Cuomo aptly described his situation as the 'canary in a coal mine' because the virus is spreading as predicted by the professionals.  LA will see it as will most urban areas throughout the entire country.  Like I said we as a country will get a better understanding around mid April.  

12 hours ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Or the infections don’t go off like a bomb but people going to the doctor in fear of having it do.


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app

It is going off like a bomb.  The infections are doubling every 3 days, as predicted. (AKA an exponential virus.)  Hospitalizations are increasing and max capacity is starting to occur.   Like I stated already, 15% of all cases are being hospitalized.  That's a massive amount of people that our current healthcare system/infrastructure can't handle.  This will most likely be countrywide to the states that didn't take the proper measures to try to stop the 'exponential growth' of the spread.  

Folks, please focus on the exponential growth of the spread and lack of facilities to handle the 15% of those infected having to be hospitalized.  That's the issue.  That's the problem.  That's the magic sauce to address.

[Golfman25 5,448]

27 minutes ago, Lebowski said:

NYC is the epicenter.  Governor Cuomo aptly described his situation as the 'canary in a coal mine' because the virus is spreading as predicted by the professionals.  LA will see it as will most urban areas throughout the entire country.  Like I said we as a country will get a better understanding around mid April.  

It is going off like a bomb.  The infections are doubling every 3 days, as predicted. (AKA an exponential virus.)  Hospitalizations are increasing and max capacity is starting to occur.   Like I stated already, 15% of all cases are being hospitalized.  That's a massive amount of people that our current healthcare system/infrastructure can't handle.  This will most likely be countrywide to the states that didn't take the proper measures to try to stop the 'exponential growth' of the spread.  

Folks, please focus on the exponential growth of the spread and lack of facilities to handle the 15% of those infected having to be hospitalized.  That's the issue.  That's the problem.  That's the magic sauce to address.

The rates in different areas are different because the density and travel characteristics are different.  LA is not seeing the same thing as NY.  LA's first case was Jan 26th.  NY's first case was March 1.  Washington state had it's first case on Jan 21st and First death on 2/19.  I am thinking density and public transportation is a huge factor in the spread.