Bracketology and Team Resumes

[RaceToTheTop]

13 minutes ago, LIHoosier said:

I largely used my own ranking system I've been trying out and a few teams either way were quite a bit off. I also fudged up too many auto bids by a seed; missing what for the seasoned vets are gimme exacts.

I used to use my own version of WAB to rank the teams and went with that.  I did find that my calculations tended to overseed teams with really good records but low SOS so when I put my brackets out.  I know that I tended to over rank MWC teams a bit.  A team like Miami (O) is a really tough one -- I would guess their WAB even with their incredibly weak schedule would be a +3 or so and in my system a WAR of +1.5 would guarantee a team being in and a +3 would probably make a team an 8 or 9 seed.

[Hoosierfan1901]

2 minutes ago, IUHoosier5 said:

Or the 12-point blown lead to Kentucky. There were way too many blown double-digit leads this year…

We were in the “no lead is safe” category by that one analytics guy.

[IUHoosier5]

1 minute ago, Hoosierfan1901 said:

We were in the “no lead is safe” category by that one analytics guy.

Jeez

[RaceToTheTop]

Just now, Hoosierfan1901 said:

We were in the “no lead is safe” category by that one analytics guy.

I can't remember what bball analytics guy ran the 'kill shot' stat but it was really telling.  He defined a 'kill shot' to be when a team has a run of 10-0 or more in a game;  Teams that had a kill shot v a team that didn't register a kill shot won about 90% of the time.  I would guess that this year we gave up fewer kill shots but also registered fewer of our own.

[Brass Cannon]

4 minutes ago, Hoosierfan1901 said:

We were in the “no lead is safe” category by that one analytics guy.

Yep we would get a 12 point lead and just start running junk offense and before you knew it the lead would be 4

[Hoosierfan1901]

8 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I can't remember what bball analytics guy ran the 'kill shot' stat but it was really telling.  He defined a 'kill shot' to be when a team has a run of 10-0 or more in a game;  Teams that had a kill shot v a team that didn't register a kill shot won about 90% of the time.  I would guess that this year we gave up fewer kill shots but also registered fewer of our own.

It was Evan Miya, I believe we were constantly in the “Suspect” and “No lead is safe” categories for most of the season.

”Suspect” = allowed more runs than having runs, I think that is how he defined it

[RaceToTheTop]

According to KenPom ratings, there were three teams that got at large bids ranked below IU (Missouri, UCF, and MIami (O).  There were also three teams that didn't get that IU was behind (Auburn, Oklahoma, and Cincinnati).  So by Pom ratings, IU should have been the first team out.

[Home Jersey]

14 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

According to KenPom ratings, there were three teams that got at large bids ranked below IU (Missouri, UCF, and MIami (O).  There were also three teams that didn't get that IU was behind (Auburn, Oklahoma, and Cincinnati).  So by Pom ratings, IU should have been the first team out.

Pretty unreal. Literally just win one more game and we'd be in.

-Losing @ Minnesota

-Blowing a 7 point halftime lead @ UK

-Blowing 13 point lead vs Nebraska at home (most egregious single game IMO)

-Dominated at home by an Iowa team we absolutely had the talent to beat 

-Let USC get away from us when we were hot

-Shat the bed losing 6 of 7 down the stretch, including Northwestern twice

The 8 point win against Incarnate Word seriously triggered PTSD for me and I'm sure many others. But it was still early enough we mostly didn't want to give up hope yet on the team or coach. If we won that by 20+, I wonder if that would've made any meaningful difference metrics wise given how soft the bubble this year was... I'd doubt it because the only metric that really matters is winning and we flat out didn't do enough of it.

Beating Purdue was the highlight. Gutted out a win at UCLA. Stole one against Wisconsin. Not all bad but the moments of "good" or "great" were too few and far between.

Overall I am trying to remind myself the margins are really thin in college basketball. Sometimes things don't bounce your way and sometimes coaches need to learn, grow, and get better at their craft. Sometimes both.

Hopefully next year is better. I will probably follow the portal closely but unless we crush it won't start watching much until after football season. Which will hopefully again be in mid / late January.