Bracketology and Team Resumes

[LIHoosier]

57 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

IU's NET now at 57.  It says that the previous rank was at 60.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

It updates daily around 9am. For instance, Memphis lost 17 spots in one day from losing to Arkansas St.

[RaceToTheTop]

5 hours ago, LIHoosier said:

It updates daily around 9am. For instance, Memphis lost 17 spots in one day from losing to Arkansas St.

Gotcha.  

[RaceToTheTop]

IU up three spots on Pom after the Minnesota game, now at 41;  37 on Torvik.

[Uspshoosier]

Give you an example of the small gap between teams currently being projected as safely in compared to a team that is next 4 out or even 6 or 8 out 

Maryland 

NET- 7

Q1- 1-2 (W- home 23), L-home-9 @36

Q2- 1-0 Neutral-66

Q3- 1-0 Neutral-137

Q4-7-0 smashed all by at least 30 and some by 50.  All over NET 204 or worse 

Non con SOS- 308, SOS-135

Projected seed currently 6-8 seed

IU

NET- 67

Q1- 0-2 (L-neutral-5, @44

Q2- 1-1( W-neutral-75, L-Neutral-53)

Q3- 4-0 (home games with teams 84-158 NET

Q4- 4-0 (only 1 Q3 or Q4 win over 30 pts 

Non con sos-153, SOS overall-108

projected out of tourney Next 4 out or worse 

[RaceToTheTop]

On 12/28/2024 at 12:04 PM, Uspshoosier said:

Give you an example of the small gap between teams currently being projected as safely in compared to a team that is next 4 out or even 6 or 8 out 

Maryland 

NET- 7

Q1- 1-2 (W- home 23), L-home-9 @36

Q2- 1-0 Neutral-66

Q3- 1-0 Neutral-137

Q4-7-0 smashed all by at least 30 and some by 50.  All over NET 204 or worse 

Non con SOS- 308, SOS-135

Projected seed currently 6-8 seed

IU

NET- 67

Q1- 0-2 (L-neutral-5, @44

Q2- 1-1( W-neutral-75, L-Neutral-53)

Q3- 4-0 (home games with teams 84-158 NET

Q4- 4-0 (only 1 Q3 or Q4 win over 30 pts 

Non con sos-153, SOS overall-108

projected out of tourney Next 4 out or worse 

I know it's not going to happen, but I wish the efficiency part of rankings would just go away.  If a team is winning a lot of close games against inferior competition once the teams get through conference it should show.  Based on the above NET for Maryland and Indiana it would seem that IU could go 12-8 in conference and still be behind Maryland if they went 8-12.  Wins, losses, and who you won and lost to should be all that matters in my book.  Guess its why I'm not on the committee.

FWIW, Torvik runs a WAB ranking (wins above bubble).  Based just on wins/losses and who you played.  A positive win above bubble indicates that you are above the minimum number of wins necessary to make the tournament.

IU is ranked 62 -- very similar to their net -- but Maryland is at 51.  

The WAB top 25 looks pretty good IMO:

1. Auburn 11-1
2. Oregon 12-1
3. Alabama 11-2
4. Tennessee 12-0
5. Marquette 11-2
6. Memphis 10-3
7. Oklahoma 13-0
8. Florida 13-0
9. Duke 10-2
10. Mississippi State 11-1
11. Utah State 12-1
12. Iowa State 10-1
13. Texas A&M 11-2
14. Drake 12-0
15. Kansas 9-2
16. Kentucky 10-2
17. Arizona State 9-2
18. UCLA 11-2
19. Georgia 12-1
20. Pittsburgh 10-2
21. Purdue 9-4
22. Wisconsin 10-3
23. Michigan State 11-2
24. Nebraska 10-2
25. U Conn 10-3

[Uspshoosier]

21 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

IU is ranked 62 -- very similar to their net -- but Maryland is at 51.  

On the official team sheet IUs WAB is 64 and Marylands is 42nd.  
WAB is new to the team sheets this year. Pretty sure it’s just Torviks metric the team sheets are using. 

[TheWatShot]

Our non-con SOS on Kenpom is 181. Will be interesting to see where that number lands in March. I'm only bringing this up because at the end of the previous 3 years it was 319, 266 and 223. 

[Uspshoosier]

5 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Our non-con SOS on Kenpom is 181. Will be interesting to see where that number lands in March. I'm only bringing this up because at the end of the previous 3 years it was 319, 266 and 223. 

194 net non con sos as of today as well.  This one is the one on the team sheets.  

[AZ Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Our non-con SOS on Kenpom is 181. Will be interesting to see where that number lands in March. I'm only bringing this up because at the end of the previous 3 years it was 319, 266 and 223. 

Hey, y'all... look at the job Woodson is doing. /s

[Muskie plays the four]

1 hour ago, AZ Hoosier said:

Hey, y'all... look at the job Woodson is doing. /s

Trust the process he played for Bobby and stuff. 

[RaceToTheTop]

@Uspshoosier

If you go to the NCAA NET rankings, there is a separate column for 'WAB' but it gives a record.  For instance, IU's WAB on the NCAA NET site is 9-0.  Maryland's, though is 9-1.  Any idea what those mean?  It seems to be different than the WAB that is put on the team sheets.

I did read up on the WAB calculation that the NCAA uses (not the wins/losses one which I have no clue about) and it is EXACTLY what I was doing with my WAR rating.  For instance, if a team played another and the expectation was that the last at large bid team in the tournament would win that game 30% of the time then winning the game would net the team a WAB of +0.70 while a loss would net them a -0.30.  The only difference would be in how they calculate those percentages and how I did.

[RaceToTheTop]

IU current numbers post-Rutger:

NET  62

POM 56

Torvik 58

EvanMiya 49

WAB +.20

Non-con SOS (POM) 176

Overall SOS (POM) 108

Quad 1:  0-2  Quad 2:  1-1  Quad 3:  3-0   Quad 4:  7-0   

[Uspshoosier]

1 hour ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Non-con SOS (POM) 176

Overall SOS (POM) 108

NET non con sos- 193

NET sos- 147

[Uspshoosier]

On 12/31/2024 at 7:13 PM, RaceToTheTop said:

@Uspshoosier

If you go to the NCAA NET rankings, there is a separate column for 'WAB' but it gives a record.  For instance, IU's WAB on the NCAA NET site is 9-0.  Maryland's, though is 9-1.  Any idea what those mean?  It seems to be different than the WAB that is put on the team sheets.

I did read up on the WAB calculation that the NCAA uses (not the wins/losses one which I have no clue about) and it is EXACTLY what I was doing with my WAR rating.  For instance, if a team played another and the expectation was that the last at large bid team in the tournament would win that game 30% of the time then winning the game would net the team a WAB of +0.70 while a loss would net them a -0.30.  The only difference would be in how they calculate those percentages and how I did.

Just now seeing this.  I have no clue what that is but IUs WAB is 59.   Pretty sure they are just using Torviks numbers 

[IUHoosierJoe]

39 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Just now seeing this.  I have no clue what that is but IUs WAB is 59.   Pretty sure they are just using Torviks numbers 

Yes, they are using Torvik’s numbers.

[RaceToTheTop]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Just now seeing this.  I have no clue what that is but IUs WAB is 59.   Pretty sure they are just using Torviks numbers 

Check the NCAA NET site -- they list a column for WAB and it doesn't give a rank but rather a win/loss record.  It says IU's WAB is 10-0.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

[Uspshoosier]

13 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Check the NCAA NET site -- they list a column for WAB and it doesn't give a rank but rather a win/loss record.  It says IU's WAB is 10-0.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

No clue what that means   I usually use Warren Nolan team sheets or this links 

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/42009

[Uspshoosier]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

No clue what that means   I usually use Warren Nolan team sheets or this links 

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/42009

Click on the net number to see the team sheet for that one 

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2025/net.   This one is my go to 

[RaceToTheTop]

2 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Click on the net number to see the team sheet for that one 

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2025/net.   This one is my go to 

I do look at Warren Nolan.  I was just curious as to what the WAB win/loss records on the NCAA NET site meant.

[go iu bb]

22 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I do look at Warren Nolan.  I was just curious as to what the WAB win/loss records on the NCAA NET site meant.

WAB = Wins Above Bubble

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/first-college-basketball-net-rankings-released-by-ncaa-tennessee-is-no-1-ahead-of-auburn-gonzaga-duke/#:~:text=This year's NET rankings also,consideration by the selection committee.

"This year's NET rankings also includes a metric called "WAB" -- an acronym that stands for Wins Above Bubble -- which is a metric formulated by analytics website BartTorvik.com that now goes on the Team Sheets for consideration by the selection committee."

https://www.anonymouseagle.com/2024/7/11/24196421/ncaa-mens-basketball-selection-committee-torvik-wins-above-bubble-wab-criteria

"The important part here is where the ratings and rankings on BartTorvik.com are going on the Team Sheets, as are the Wins Above Bubble ratings and rankings. Wins Above Bubble is not all that different than the idea of Wins Above Replacement in baseball. It’s the measurement of how much better you are than a team that would be right on the cut line. How many more wins do you have than a team that would be on the edge of missing the tournament seems like an incredibly valuable measurement."

https://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/2017/01/if-ncaa-really-wants-to-replace-rpi-it.html