Bracketology and Team Resumes

[HoosierAloha 30,068]

I believe it was 24% yesterday, also saw a bracket where we could face UK in the S16

Sweet!! Let’s beat the **** out of pUKe in the S16 to get to the EE.

Yesterday, we had a higher probability of getting a 1 seed than a 13. That changed after the loss to Ill. I guess we have to give up on getting that 1 seed.


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[RaceToTheTop 25,842]

I had three teams move into my bracket and three move out today despite the limited games.

Iowa, San Diego State, and Belmont in (much like IU, my system doesn't like Iowa's resume).

SMU, West Virginia, and Oregon out.

I do recognize that my bracket isn't such a predictor of what the NCAA will do and rather is meant to measure what I feel should be important in qualifying -- comparison of a team to what a tournament team should do with that team's schedule.

[RaceToTheTop 25,842]

Bracketville updated their seed list.  Surprisingly no change for IU -- still a 7 and 27th overall.

Big Ten seeds:  Purdue 1 (4th overall),  Wisconsin 3 (9th overall), Illinois 4 (14th overall), Michigan State 4 (16th overall), Ohio State 5 (18th overall), Indiana 7 (27th overall), Iowa 8 (31st overall).  He also has Notre Dame in the field as a 10 seed so, so that would give us three victories on the field.

Last four teams in:  Oklahoma, BYU, North Carolina, Florida.  First four out:  San Diego State, Kansas State, Stanford.

[NashvilleHoosier 3,712]

13 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

I had three teams move into my bracket and three move out today despite the limited games.

Iowa, San Diego State, and Belmont in (much like IU, my system doesn't like Iowa's resume).

SMU, West Virginia, and Oregon out.

I do recognize that my bracket isn't such a predictor of what the NCAA will do and rather is meant to measure what I feel should be important in qualifying -- comparison of a team to what a tournament team should do with that team's schedule.

Oregon is interesting here. What is it your system doesn't like about them? I haven't paid much attention to Pac 12 hoops this season but it seemed like Oregon was turning it on lately and a quick check of their schedule shows they've won 9 out of 10. Top 50 NET ranking and a 5-5 quad 1/2 record. Seems interesting they're sliding down when they seem to be improving, no? 

[Uspshoosier 45,762]

6 hours ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

Oregon is interesting here. What is it your system doesn't like about them? I haven't paid much attention to Pac 12 hoops this season but it seemed like Oregon was turning it on lately and a quick check of their schedule shows they've won 9 out of 10. Top 50 NET ranking and a 5-5 quad 1/2 record. Seems interesting they're sliding down when they seem to be improving, no? 

Their 1 loss in that stretch was to Colorado at home.    They started out terrible.   Byu and Houston blasted them by 30 or more.   They lost at home to Arizona St as well.    They do have 2 road wins in a row at UCLA and USC.   Thing is they lucked out and got to play those road games with no fans in the building.  
 

Oregon is a tourney team that if they make the field will be seeded lower then they probably should be.   In other words they will be better then their seed 

[RaceToTheTop 25,842]

6 hours ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

Oregon is interesting here. What is it your system doesn't like about them? I haven't paid much attention to Pac 12 hoops this season but it seemed like Oregon was turning it on lately and a quick check of their schedule shows they've won 9 out of 10. Top 50 NET ranking and a 5-5 quad 1/2 record. Seems interesting they're sliding down when they seem to be improving, no? 

Oregon is absolutely turning it on and I recognize that most likely are in the tournament right now.  My system is meant to measure how many wins and losses a team would be expected to have if they were a fringe tournament team compared to their actual win and loss record.  It doesn't care when those victories and losses occurred and doesn't care about their margin of victory or loss.  My system isn't so much as a bracket projector, it's more of what I think should be important -- seeds rewarded for their actual wins and losses based on schedule where teams are not seeded by how they are expected to perform but rather are ranked by the season as a whole.

Currently, they are 15-7 -- but you have to throw out one win as it wasn't a D1 school, so they are 14-7.  Based on the teams they've played, my calculation has them needing a winning percentage of 65% to be a fringe team.  They are actually slightly above that -- 67%.  But once all teams are calculated, the cut line was a little higher.  My projection had them needing 13.66 wins and they have 14, so they are +0.34 wins.  I currently have the cut line at +0.62 wins.  For means of comparison, Oregon plays Stanford at Oregon in their next game.  My projection is that a fringe NCAA team would beat Stanford in that situation 71% of the time, so a win would gain Oregon +0.29 wins.....and put them above the current cut line.  They aren't a slam dunk entry just yet -- bracketville currently has them as an 11 seed -- but if they continue playing like they have been they are easily in.

[RaceToTheTop 25,842]

The ACC is just flat out confusing.  Teams that once looked to be in good shape now don't, teams that looked in bad shape now in good shape.  Duke is an obvious lock, and Wake Forest would appear to be in really good shape.  Bracketville had five teams in as of this morning, but only one in the top 35 teams.  Virginia takes down Duke on the road but they weren't even in the list of first 16 teams out.  Duke is a lock, Wake Forest looks to be in really good shape for a bid, but after that it gets dicey.  Notre Dame might actually be in the third best position (they are now tied for first place in the ACC.....and have a very favorable slate left.  North Carolina 16-7 looks nice on paper.....but they are 0-7 in quad 1 and only 3 wins in quad 2.  Miami is falling pretty fast.  Virginia Tech could actually make some noise even though they are 14-10 because they have a cake walk left and already have played a good schedule.

Pom's projections -- if they finished like this, it would be very interested to see who and how many were selected.

Duke 25-6, 15-5 conference

Notre Dame 21-10, 14-6

Wake Forest 23-8, 13-7

No Carolina 21-10, 13-7

Miami (F) 21-10, 13-7

Virginia 18-12, 12-8

Virginia Tech 19-12, 11-9

Florida St 17-13, 10-10

Syracuse 16-15, 10-10

 

[RaceToTheTop 25,842]

A little thought experiment......

What would you expect IU's record to be if they went home-and-home against the following 10 teams?

Wisconsin

Seton Hall

Virginia Tech

Providence

Michigan

South Carolina

Arizona State

Butler

Ball State

Army

There is a reason I'm asking that I'll talk about after some responses.....personally, I would say 14-6 or at worst 13-7.

[IU_FanClub 1,679]

33 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

A little thought experiment......

What would you expect IU's record to be if they went home-and-home against the following 10 teams?

Wisconsin

Seton Hall

Virginia Tech

Providence

Michigan

South Carolina

Arizona State

Butler

Ball State

Army

There is a reason I'm asking that I'll talk about after some responses.....personally, I would say 14-6 or at worst 13-7.

I agree I'll go with 13-7

[BGVille Hoosierfan 2,909]

Mr. Sesame Street (Lunardi) updated his bracket this morning and no change for IU as they stay at 7th which is surprising to me. I see IU as a low 8/high 9 right now. What does everyone think IU’s magic number is to go dancing? I think 20 wins gets us there no matter what. Thoughts???

[hoopsta007 414]

1 hour ago, brumdog45 said:

A little thought experiment......

What would you expect IU's record to be if they went home-and-home against the following 10 teams?

Wisconsin

Seton Hall

Virginia Tech

Providence

Michigan

South Carolina

Arizona State

Butler

Ball State

Army

There is a reason I'm asking that I'll talk about after some responses.....personally, I would say 14-6 or at worst 13-7.

15-5 would be my guess

[lillurk 3,756]

2 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

A little thought experiment......

What would you expect IU's record to be if they went home-and-home against the following 10 teams?

Wisconsin

Seton Hall

Virginia Tech

Providence

Michigan

South Carolina

Arizona State

Butler

Ball State

Army

There is a reason I'm asking that I'll talk about after some responses.....personally, I would say 14-6 or at worst 13-7.

14-6, +/-1

[bigrod 2,871]

30 minutes ago, lillurk said:

14-6, +/-1

Agree with this.

[NashvilleHoosier 3,712]

3 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

A little thought experiment......

What would you expect IU's record to be if they went home-and-home against the following 10 teams?

Wisconsin

Seton Hall

Virginia Tech

Providence

Michigan

South Carolina

Arizona State

Butler

Ball State

Army

There is a reason I'm asking that I'll talk about after some responses.....personally, I would say 14-6 or at worst 13-7.

Looks like I'm the negative Nancy here b/c I'm seeing 12-8. Mainly b/c this team still hasn't shown any ability to keep momentum so I don't see any sustained winning streak regardless of how these games were lined up. 

Lose tonight I'll make it 8-12. 

[HoosierAloha 30,068]

3 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

A little thought experiment......

What would you expect IU's record to be if they went home-and-home against the following 10 teams?

Wisconsin

Seton Hall

Virginia Tech

Providence

Michigan

South Carolina

Arizona State

Butler

Ball State

Army

There is a reason I'm asking that I'll talk about after some responses.....personally, I would say 14-6 or at worst 13-7.

(L) @Wiscy - that game happened, we **** all over the court in the second half because things got tough

(W) Wiscy - we'll find out soon enough, they've been our kryptonite because we have played dumb basketball for too long

(L) @Mich - they treated us to a massive humble pie at home, would hate to see what would happen on the road

(L) Mich - that game happened, they hit a stooopid percentage because we were still at KoK celebrating our super bowl

(L) @SH - they have a pulse, doubt we beat them at their place

(W) SH - we probably take them at home

(L) @VaTech - they also have a pulse, force turnovers and we'd **** all over the court

(W) VaTech - should be able to take them at home

(L) @Prov - they're good

(W) Prov - like Wiscy, this is probably a toss up

(W) @SC - this is probably a tossup, think they could turn it into a sloppy game

(W) SC - they're really not that great

(L) @ASU - think we'd probably **** the bed in that environment, maybe the curtain of distraction would help our FT%?

(W) ASU - don't think it'd be close

(L) @But - they're not that good but it'd be their super bowl

(W) But - we should destroy them

(W) x2 BSU

(W) x2 Army

(12-8) +/- 1

[RaceToTheTop 25,842]

The teams that I picked line up with what the Mountain West has in terms of teams according to Ken Pom.  I tried to match them up with P5 teams, although had to look elsewhere for the last two:

Boise St is at 32;  WIsconsin is at 31

Utah State is at 35; Seton Hall is at 37

Wyoming is at 36, Virginia Tech is at 38

San Diego State is at 41, Providence is at 42

Fresno State is at 44;  Michigan is at 45

UNLV is at 108; South Caroilna is at 107

Nevada is at 136; Arizona State is at 135

New Mexico is at 142; Butler is at 144

Air Force is at 231; Ball State is at 233

San Jose St is at 289;  Army is at 294.

The projections that we've placed on Indiana have been from 12-8 to 15-5 but hovered right around 14-6/13-7.  Most bracketologists have IU right now as a 7 or 8 seed......so for argument's sake, let's say that 14-6 represents what you would expect a 7/8 seed to do against a round robin Mountain West schedule and 13-7 is what you would expect from an 9 seed.  Drop to 12-8 and maybe you are a 10/11 seed;  11-9 makes you a fringe tournament team, maybe make, maybe miss but more likely to miss once some auto bids are stolen.

So let's say that IU was added to the Mountain West.  This would add two games to each team -- we'll just work on the assumption that the teams projected to have winning conference records in the MWC split with IU and the teams projected to have losing records get swept by IU.  Pom would project the following conference finish:

Boise State:  15-5

Wyoming 15-5

Colorado St 12-8

San Diego State 12-8 or 13-7 (have one game that hasn't been rescheduled yet)

Fresno State 12-8 or 11-9 (have one game that hasn't been scheduled yet)

Utah State 11-9

Followed by the below .500 teams.

The point is that I think we undersell some conferences because they are teams that we simply don't much about them.  Using IU as a measure (and currently having them as a 7/8 seed), based on conference play projections Boise State and Wyoming are more than easily in the tournament, Colorado State and even San Diego State are in while Fresno State and Utah State are on the bubble.  (Utah State and Fresno State are actually not on the bubble in real life because of their non-conference play). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[IU Scott 2,375]

9 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

A little thought experiment......

What would you expect IU's record to be if they went home-and-home against the following 10 teams?

Wisconsin

Seton Hall

Virginia Tech

Providence

Michigan

South Carolina

Arizona State

Butler

Ball State

Army

There is a reason I'm asking that I'll talk about after some responses.....personally, I would say 14-6 or at worst 13-7.

14-6

[HoosierHoops1 5,024]

12 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

The teams that I picked line up with what the Mountain West has in terms of teams according to Ken Pom.  I tried to match them up with P5 teams, although had to look elsewhere for the last two:

Boise St is at 32;  WIsconsin is at 31

Utah State is at 35; Seton Hall is at 37

Wyoming is at 36, Virginia Tech is at 38

San Diego State is at 41, Providence is at 42

Fresno State is at 44;  Michigan is at 45

UNLV is at 108; South Caroilna is at 107

Nevada is at 136; Arizona State is at 135

New Mexico is at 142; Butler is at 144

Air Force is at 231; Ball State is at 233

San Jose St is at 289;  Army is at 294.

The projections that we've placed on Indiana have been from 12-8 to 15-5 but hovered right around 14-6/13-7.  Most bracketologists have IU right now as a 7 or 8 seed......so for argument's sake, let's say that 14-6 represents what you would expect a 7/8 seed to do against a round robin Mountain West schedule and 13-7 is what you would expect from an 9 seed.  Drop to 12-8 and maybe you are a 10/11 seed;  11-9 makes you a fringe tournament team, maybe make, maybe miss but more likely to miss once some auto bids are stolen.

So let's say that IU was added to the Mountain West.  This would add two games to each team -- we'll just work on the assumption that the teams projected to have winning conference records in the MWC split with IU and the teams projected to have losing records get swept by IU.  Pom would project the following conference finish:

Boise State:  15-5

Wyoming 15-5

Colorado St 12-8

San Diego State 12-8 or 13-7 (have one game that hasn't been rescheduled yet)

Fresno State 12-8 or 11-9 (have one game that hasn't been scheduled yet)

Utah State 11-9

Followed by the below .500 teams.

The point is that I think we undersell some conferences because they are teams that we simply don't much about them.  Using IU as a measure (and currently having them as a 7/8 seed), based on conference play projections Boise State and Wyoming are more than easily in the tournament, Colorado State and even San Diego State are in while Fresno State and Utah State are on the bubble.  (Utah State and Fresno State are actually not on the bubble in real life because of their non-conference play). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think your points make sense, but I would gather most people would have predicted Indiana with a much better record against the actual teams, than considering "Michigan, Wisky, Providence" etc.

[Indiana muskie 205]

Stupid ? Prob wrong thread maybe already brought up. Can IU schedule a game to play to make up for unc Ashville at this point. If so do you do it to get closer to 20 wins . What kinda quad game would you look for if so. 

[Uspshoosier 45,762]

3 hours ago, Indiana muskie said:

Stupid ? Prob wrong thread maybe already brought up. Can IU schedule a game to play to make up for unc Ashville at this point. If so do you do it to get closer to 20 wins . What kinda quad game would you look for if so. 

No break in the schedule now to do that.   Only chance was after Maryland and before Illinois.   You would want to do it for a Q1 or Q2 game to improve the Non con SOS.   Would of been a challenge but USC just did it with Pacific