Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier]

21 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Revisiting it at tourney time isn’t going to solve anything.  Just because you have a good NET doesn’t mean you are automatically going to make the tourney.   Teams with a NET in the 30’s have been left out in the past and they will be left out in the future.   If all you have is a good NET number then you have nothing 

Fwiw I don’t have Wyoming near the tourney cut line at this time but having watch them play in my opinion they are capable of playing with those teams around the 30-80 range.  They will have some opportunities in the Mountain West since they are some pretty good teams in the conference.   I was looking forward to the game Wednesday against San Diego St but they game got postponed 

[HoosierAloha]

26 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Indiana now receiving poll votes again. #31 in coaches poll. #32 in writers' poll.

Two road wins this week might just put us in. Ought to, but maybe too many teams to jump. 

Moral of the story? When a team starts the year with a low ranking, it's hard to climb in.

Xavier and Providence were both able to do it, right? If we could have finished off the Wiscy game and/or taken care of business with two winnable road games we would be in the top 20 with favorable coverage by the talking heads. The game at Iowa moves the needle. I don't think the game at Nebrasketball will do all that much to boost our profile but could absolutely hurt us in the eyes of the pollsters.

[HoosierAloha]

5 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Fwiw I don’t have Wyoming near the tourney cut line at this time but having watch them play in my opinion they are capable of playing with those teams around the 30-80 range.  They will have some opportunities in the Mountain West since they are some pretty good teams in the conference.   I was looking forward to the game Wednesday against San Diego St but they game got postponed 

We have one more noncon game we could play, right?! Let's schedule something with Wyoming on an aircraft carrier in South Dakota?

[Uspshoosier]

4 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

We have one more noncon game we could play, right?! Let's schedule something with Wyoming on an aircraft carrier in South Dakota?

Q1 game since it would be on a neutral court.   I like it 

[Uspshoosier]

13 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

Xavier and Providence were both able to do it, right? If we could have finished off the Wiscy game and/or taken care of business with two winnable road games we would be in the top 20 with favorable coverage by the talking heads. The game at Iowa moves the needle. I don't think the game at Nebrasketball will do all that much to boost our profile but could absolutely hurt us in the eyes of the pollsters.

Iowa st would be the biggest example this year.   Went from predicting to finish last in their league to Top 10 or close to it 

[HoosierHoopster]

1 hour ago, Stuhoo said:

Indiana now receiving poll votes again. #31 in coaches poll. #32 in writers' poll.

Two road wins this week might just put us in. Ought to, but maybe too many teams to jump. 

Moral of the story? When a team starts the year with a low ranking, it's hard to climb in.

If - a big if - we beat Iowa on the road, have to think we'd be ranked in the next one. 

I know rankings don't really matter, but it'd be nice to get back to being a regularly ranked team -- I think we are on track to getting there, and will, and it's a question of when not whether, but we'll see --

[MikeRoberts]

10 minutes ago, HoosierHoopster said:

If - a big if - we beat Iowa on the road, have to think we'd be ranked in the next one. 

I know rankings don't really matter, but it'd be nice to get back to being a regularly ranked team -- I think we are on track to getting there, and will, and it's a question of when not whether, but we'll see --

Agree. Rankings are nice, feels good to see a number next Indiana. Helps with fan moral, recruiting, buzz in the media… it’s worth something and at the end of the day, it confirms we are relevant as a program

[RaceToTheTop]

9 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

They all are.   Is Michigan a top 30 team in your opinion? I would hope you say no but they are 28th in Ken Pom.   There is always going to be outliers in any metric system being used.  A teams NET number is used as a sorting tool which is why you see IU in tournament projections and Wyoming not close.   

Yes.  And the NCAA shouldn't go the predictive route only because it doesn't really reward teams for actual wins and losses.  Win by 1 ten times, lose by ten once will yield the same predictive value as winning by ten one time and losing by a point ten times.

That said, I'm still not enamored with NET.  It's better than RPI for sure, but I don't think it truly is indicative of strength of schedule.  

In terms of the IU v. Wyoming debate, Sagarin is 100% a predictive system and says on a neutral court IU would be a seven point favorite.  Their overall rating is very Rutgers and Minnesota-ish.  We would definitely be favored against Wyoming, but if you told me that IU played Wyoming in the first round of a tournament game and IU was a 10 point favorite, I'd probably take the points.

[RaceToTheTop]

6 hours ago, HoosierHoopster said:

If - a big if - we beat Iowa on the road, have to think we'd be ranked in the next one. 

I know rankings don't really matter, but it'd be nice to get back to being a regularly ranked team -- I think we are on track to getting there, and will, and it's a question of when not whether, but we'll see --

If -- a big if -- we beat Iowa and get ranked, then will both Nebraska fans rush the court if they beat us?

[Uspshoosier]

NET must of known Hoopster was bad mouthing it.   IU moved up 1 spot ahead of Wyoming today.   IU-32 

[Uspshoosier]

https://bracketologists.com/
 

Not sure how new this site is but it’s new to me.  I will need to check it out more after work.   
 

im sure I’m will still like Warren Nolan site better but for those interested check it out 

[Uspshoosier]

Remember that neutral court scrimmage against Belmont that IU won.   That would of been a Q1 win if it was a real game 

[Uspshoosier]

DeCourcys bracket.    IU 10 seed 

he has Wyoming one of the first 4 games.  
 

I have IU in the 7-8 range and don’t have Wyoming near the first 4.    I got probably 8 teams before them 

[Stuhoo]

8 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

https://bracketologists.com/
 

Not sure how new this site is but it’s new to me.  I will need to check it out more after work.   
 

im sure I’m will still like Warren Nolan site better but for those interested check it out 

 

I like this one because it has us one spot ahead of our archrivals, Wyoming.

 

[IUc2016]

33 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

https://bracketologists.com/
 

Not sure how new this site is but it’s new to me.  I will need to check it out more after work.   
 

im sure I’m will still like Warren Nolan site better but for those interested check it out 

Thanks for sharing. At first glance I actually like this site a lot. Warren Nolan is prob still better, but the net bracket is a cool feature as well as the graph tracking a team's net ranking 

[HoosierAloha]

42 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

https://bracketologists.com/
 

Not sure how new this site is but it’s new to me.  I will need to check it out more after work.   
 

im sure I’m will still like Warren Nolan site better but for those interested check it out 

They have our OOC SOS at 78. I'll take it!

[Uspshoosier]

39 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

They have our OOC SOS at 78. I'll take it!

Just saw that lol.   No chance our schedule is 78 but like you I will take it.  Lol.    NET has us at 343 non con 

[LIHoosier]

The Butler/G'Town game w/out Ewing had me thinking. Is the commitee going to factor in the results of 'COVID Coaches' like they would if a significant player misses time to injury?

[RaceToTheTop]

On 1/11/2022 at 3:08 PM, Uspshoosier said:

Just saw that lol.   No chance our schedule is 78 but like you I will take it.  Lol.    NET has us at 343 non con 

Question:  why is non-con SOS even on the sheets?  It obviously is part of overall SOS -- 35 to 40% of it.  Seems like it's 'double dipping' to put a non-con SOS and an overall SOS on the sheet.

[Uspshoosier]

1 hour ago, brumdog45 said:

Question:  why is non-con SOS even on the sheets?  It obviously is part of overall SOS -- 35 to 40% of it.  Seems like it's 'double dipping' to put a non-con SOS and an overall SOS on the sheet.

Just another piece of the puzzle.  Probably not as important now but another way for committee to judge teams that have the same looking resumes.   If 2 teams have identical resumes but 1 didn’t even try to play anyone in the non conference and the other did if would be a deciding factor.   Overall SOS is still the more important number in my opinion.    Decourcy wrote an article about how the committee shouldn’t use non conference SOS a couple years ago where he makes to pretty good points.  You should check it out it’s worth the read.   I’ll post it later if you can’t find it.