Analysis: IU is 8-1 in Big Ten play and Hoosier fans still feeling uneasy

[IndyHutch 1,718]

Terry:

 

I thought you were referring to when he was trying to: " The last few games though, he just seems to be back trying to force the action and dribble/drive where there isn't an open lane."  

When Troy is doing that I find it incredibly hard to watch.  When he is not doing that, I love what Troy brings to the offense.  When he tries to force the action, bad things happen, when he plays to what the defense is giving him, he can be outstanding.  

Of course I can say the same thing for pretty much everyone else on the team as well. 

 

I got you. I think we're in agreement then. 

[Uspshoosier 45,157]

In my opinion I think some people looked at Minnesota's record at 0-9 in the big and just thought minny should roll over and not compete. Instead of just looking at the box score record, if you have watched Minnesota compete the last 3 games you could see that they are a better team then there record. for example I feel Minnesota is a better team than northwestern right now despite the records. Minnesota has at least been competitive in most of their recent games while northwestern has been blown out in their last 3 games.
Every team in the country is going to go through a stretch of games where they are not as sharp defensively. 35 plus games is a lot of games to keep locked in with no breakdowns.

The best defensive team in basketball the last 3 years (Virginia) in my opinion has had stretches this year where they were terrible on defensive ( coach Bennetts words not mine) but against Louisville they found their mojo again. Kansas couldn't contain the dribble pentatration against Kentucky last night and were terrible on that side of the ball ( self's words not mine). Self saw this and the hall of fame coach made an adjustment that won the game ( switching to a triangle in 2). I guess my point is it's going to take more then a bad defensive half against a desperate winless big 10 team for me to worry this team has reverted back to the team that let a team with an offensive efficiency in the 300's ( kennasaw st) score over 1.1 points per possession.

[8bucks 6,352]

After we won a few games after the Duke game and the BT season neared many people looked at our first 9 games and thought we should win them all. Sure teams don't always win all the games you are supposed to but when we looked at the early part of the schedule there was some comfort. Should we discount the early start because we played the bottom of the BT, no. Yet for many of us the uneasiness comes because we don't know if we are a team that can compete with the best teams in the BT and the country.

Schedule does matter. We have a historically weak schedule this year and have yet to play the hard part of the weak schedule. If we finish the season in the top 3 of the BT then we can feel pretty good.

You also said we had short memories. No, the problem is we have long memories. Two thirty point blow outs against teams that are not going to compete for a national championship don't overcome the regular late season swoons under Crean.

That is the elephant in the room. We have not won against anyone to give us confidence to match our record. That is the source of the uneasiness.

We have a chance to do that down the stretch. That will be the elixir to calm the uneasiness not blowouts against Northwestern at home.

[IndyHutch 1,718]

After we won a few games after the Duke game and the BT season neared many people looked at our first 9 games and thought we should win them all. Sure teams don't always win all the games you are supposed to but when we looked at the early part of the schedule there was some comfort. Should we discount the early start because we played the bottom of the BT, no. Yet for many of us the uneasiness comes because we don't know if we are a team that can compete with the best teams in the BT and the country.

Schedule does matter. We have a historically weak schedule this year and have yet to play the hard part of the weak schedule. If we finish the season in the top 3 of the BT then we can feel pretty good.

You also said we had short memories. No, the problem is we have long memories. Two thirty point blow outs against teams that are not going to compete for a national championship don't overcome the regular late season swoons under Crean.

That is the elephant in the room. We have not won against anyone to give us confidence to match our record. That is the source of the uneasiness.

We have a chance to do that down the stretch. That will be the elixir to calm the uneasiness not blowouts against Northwestern at home.

 

I agree but at the same time you can't discount those blowouts against Ohio State, Illinois and Northwestern at home simply because they were not teams that will compete for a national title. And here's why. The last time IU beat Big Ten opponents by 30 points or more in the same conference season had been over a decade ago. And before that it like the 1993 and 1994 seasons. And so IU has played this level of opponent before, through the years, but this team has disposed of them like few other teams have in the past. I completely agree that IU hasn't really beaten a team that probably gets to the tournament with the exception of Notre Dame and maybe Creighton. And the games ahead will tell us a lot. But I also think you can't completely discount what it means to beat up on some of the teams Indiana has beaten the last nine games.

[MartintheMopMan 7,765]

Maybe. In principal anyway. But I think Izzo would find a way to work with him, too. I don't think he would have given up completely on a talent like that. That's just my take any way.

I think Brass Cannon was saying he believes Izzo would have found a way to correct the problem, not given up on him (correct me if I'm wrong BC).

 

Generally, I agree Troy's problem is coaching (which is why I continue to think he's a first round pick). Whether it's how he's being coached, what is being said, who is coaching him, I don't know.

 

Ultimately, you either choose to believe Troy is too low-IQ to ever learn or he's not being taught properly. I think the latter is more likely. I don't know why whatever current coaching is not working, but it obviously isn't. It's a shame too, he's dripping with raw athleticism and talent but it seems like he's going to be raw until he finds someone who connects with him in the right way to coach him up into the player he can be.

[Brass Cannon 24,271]

I think Brass Cannon was saying he believes Izzo would have found a way to correct the problem, not given up on him (correct me if I'm wrong BC).

Generally, I agree Troy's problem is coaching (which is why I continue to think he's a first round pick). Whether it's how he's being coached, what is being said, who is coaching him, I don't know.

Ultimately, you either choose to believe Troy is too low-IQ to ever learn or he's not being taught properly. I think the latter is more likely. I don't know why whatever current coaching is not working, but it obviously isn't. It's a shame too, he's dripping with raw athleticism and talent but it seems like he's going to be raw until he finds someone who connects with him in the right way to coach him up into the player he can be.

That's what I meant. I think under Izzo TW is already in the NBA or one of the best players in the NCAA without a doubt.

[BtownBanner6 1,298]

That's what I meant. I think under Izzo TW is already in the NBA or one of the best players in the NCAA without a doubt.

I'm not sure I could say that, I'm trying to think and am coming up short, but has Izzo ever had a guy like TW? I agree Izzo is a great coach and mentor but that doesn't mean he can build up any type of player.

[Uspshoosier 45,157]

That's what I meant. I think under Izzo TW is already in the NBA or one of the best players in the NCAA without a doubt.

he would be in the d-league or nba with Izzo as coach? Brenden Dawson who I think was a better defender and super athletic played 4 years for Izzo and unless he recently got called up is in the d-league. I think it's easy to say from our perspective that Troy would be a nba player with another coach but in reality even the some great players in college never sniff the nba or they get called up briefly and then they r back to the d-league

[Brass Cannon 24,271]

I never said he would make Troy Williams a star in the NBA.  But he would have corrected the things that are keeping him from making the league. 

[Walking Boot of Doom 18,170]

I never said he would make Troy Williams a star in the NBA.  But he would have corrected the things that are keeping him from making the league. 

It's just a pretty empty argument given there is zero evidence to support this claim. Troy is his own unique player, with his own unique mentality. Izzo is a better coach than Crean, but Crean also receives a lot of praise from his former players on his development abilities. I don't understand your original purpose in stating that Troy would be a better player if coached by Izzo, but it adds very little value in this discussion about the remainder of Indiana's season.

[Brass Cannon 24,271]

It's just a pretty empty argument given there is zero evidence to support this claim. Troy is his own unique player, with his own unique mentality. Izzo is a better coach than Crean, but Crean also receives a lot of praise from his former players on his development abilities. I don't understand your original purpose in stating that Troy would be a better player if coached by Izzo, but it adds very little value in this discussion about the remainder of Indiana's season.

 

Because Hutch said that Troy is a type of player we would fear running into if he played for another team.  And I think that is true for certain coaches in the league.  Izzo is one of those, Bo Ryan if he hadn't retired.  These are the coaches that would have gotten rid of Bad Troy.  

[Walking Boot of Doom 18,170]

Hutch, nice write up. I think the most promising thing we saw from this team during the past two (ugly) games was highlighted in your first point. Last year's team truly lived and died by the three. We saw that the team still really relies on shooting, but they have learned how to play through the post when the shots aren't falling.

 

I'd really like to see the team work more consistently through the post even when shots are falling. We seem to use the post as a last resort after forcing bad shots, when really we should feed the post more often to create better looks. Don't really expect that to happen though...

[Walking Boot of Doom 18,170]

Because Hutch said that Troy is a type of player we would fear running into if he played for another team.  And I think that is true for certain coaches in the league.  Izzo is one of those, Bo Ryan if he hadn't retired.  These are the coaches that would have gotten rid of Bad Troy.  

:banghead:

[Alford Bailey 12,354]

 

Indiana will head into the second half of the conference Tuesday no worse than tied for first place in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers have won 13 of their last 14 games and are among the top 20 teams in the nation. And yet IU fans are a little worried as the back heavy portion of the schedule is about to begin. Here's my take.

 

I think if most people had told you that Indiana basketball would be 8-1 at the halfway point of the 2016 Big Ten season that most people would have been okay with that.

 

Actually, everyone would have been okay with that. It would especially be true if you also knew that eight games into the season Indiana was 5-3 and had just really struggled on the road in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge at Duke in a blowout loss.

 

If you also added the facts that the Hoosiers had won 13 of their last 14 games to reach that 8-1 lofty perch, everyone would have agreed they would have taken that any time.

 

Not to mention that at 8-1, Indiana would be in first place in the Big Ten (by a half game over Iowa) and ranked in the Associated Press top 20 by the end of January.

 

Oh and don’t forget the Hoosiers have won 18 of their first 22 games. And with 18 wins, there are only a couple of teams in the nation that have more wins than IU and those teams have 19.

 

Make no mistake about it, Indiana basketball is in a great place at 18-4 overall and 8-1 in the Big Ten.

 

So why do Indiana basketball fans have an uneasy feeling in their stomachs entering the month of February?

 

The reality is that many IU basketball fans are waiting for that other shoe to drop. And it’s completely understandable following IU’s narrow 74-68 victory over Minnesota Saturday at Assembly Hall. This was a Minnesota team that was 0-9 in the Big Ten heading into Saturday’s matchup and was ripe for the upset.

 

And that game came on the heels of Tuesday’s night tough overtime loss at Wisconsin when the Hoosiers were handed their first conference loss.

 

The reality is that fans have short memories. They forget that a week ago, Indiana was sitting there at 7-0 in the Big Ten having just defeated back-to-back Big Ten opponents by more than 30 points. In those two games, Indiana made 32 of 64 3-point field goals and looked like world beaters.

 

No, with college basketball, and rightfully so, it is what have you done for me lately? And lately (the last two games) was not nearly as much fun.

 

All of a sudden here came last week where the shots stopped falling. In two games last week against Wisconsin and Minnesota, the Hoosiers were 9 of 34 from beyond the 3-point arc. They were 2 of 18 Sunday against Minnesota in a building where they usually shoot really well. And face it, when you make 23 less 3-pointers in a two-game stretch than you did in the previous two, you’re not going to look nearly as unbeatable as you once did.

 

The elephant in the room for Indiana is its Big Ten schedule to date. Indiana has played Minnesota twice, Wisconsin twice, Rutgers, Nebraska, Ohio State, Illinois and Northwestern. Those teams have a combined Big Ten record of 19-42.

 

Or another way of looking at it: Indiana has yet to play five teams that are a combined 33-12 in Big Ten play, a group that includes Iowa, Purdue, Maryland, Michigan State and Michigan. The Hoosiers will play those five teams a total of six times over the next nine games.

 

Indiana had no control over its schedule to this point. The Hoosiers played the games that were on the schedule, and frankly they did really well. IU could just as easily be sitting here at 6-3 or 5-4 thinking about the next nine games and wondering what the realistic shot at an NCAA Tournament berth would be.

 

Instead, IU fans are looking down from their current position hoping the Hoosiers can get it all together beginning Tuesday night at Michigan.

 

Let me tell you why I’m still reasonably confident here. Here are three reasons why I think Indiana will win more than half of its remaining nine Big Ten games and be in the top four heading into the Big Ten Tournament and beyond.

 

1. THOMAS BRYANT: When Indiana needed him the most Saturday against Minnesota, the IU big man responded in a big way. When the outside shots weren’t falling, Indiana did a better job of playing through the big man and he took charge in the middle. He did a particularly nice job of getting his defender on his hip and then taking the ball strong to the basket. He was also big on the offensive glass and had a couple of plays in particular down the stretch that were big in IU finding a way to edge a Minnesota team that should never have been that close to the Hoosiers. But in recent years, if Indiana had a 2 for 18 performance from 3-point range the Hoosiers would have been dead in the water. Because they have Bryant roaming the middle that’s not necessarily the case right now.

 

2. THOSE 3-POINT SHOTS ARE GOING TO FALL AGAIN: This team has too good of shooters for a slump like that to linger. You have several guys who can legitimately knock down the ball from distance. And when that’s the case you always have a chance. Can I explain what happened Saturday against Minnesota from distance? There’s no explanation. How can Robert Johnson look so good and so confident for the last few weeks and struggle so mightily against the Golden Gophers. Johnson was 1 for 6 against Minnesota but what was worse is that the shots he missed were all good looks. Nick Zeisloft, who has had a few big games of late, missed all four of his 3-point attempts against Minnesota, too. Remember, this is the Minnesota team that Zeisloft was lights out against just a few weeks ago in Minneapolis when he made 5 of 8 from distance including four in a row in a stretch late in the first half. But those shots will all fall again. That’s the thing with shooters. They’re going to keep shooting them and the shots will fall again.

 

3. INDIANA ALWAYS PLAYS TO THE LEVEL OF ITS COMPETITION: This has been true for a while and it has been true of late for Indiana. I told people Saturday before the Minnesota game that it didn’t matter that this was a matchup of 7-1 versus 0-9. Indiana doesn’t handle those situations well. I would have felt more comfortable Saturday playing Iowa than Minnesota. And I’m sure Indiana would have played a lot better against Iowa than it did against the Gophers. Especially at Assembly Hall where IU rides that wave of momentum it gets from playing before its raucous home fans. But think about it. When Indiana played Ohio State (currently 6-3 in conference) at home, the Hoosiers were fired up and ready to play and led by 30 at halftime. When IU played Northwestern, a team that was playing better and had just taken Maryland to overtime on the road a few days before, the Hoosiers looked really impressive. But in two games against Minnesota and one against Rutgers in particular, IU looked lucky to escape in any of those games. And those two teams are a combined 0-18 in Big Ten play at this point. Go figure.

 

There’s no question we’re going to learn a great deal about Indiana basketball over the next nine games. But the schedule withstanding to date, I think this is a pretty good IU basketball team and I think the Hoosiers will come out of this stretch at 5-4 or better. And myself, I’d take 13-5 in the Big Ten any day of the week.

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Say  we finish conference 5-4. Wins against PennSt, Nebraska and Illinois plus 2 more against the remaining teams (Mich, Mich St, Iowa and Purdue. Depending on how ND finishes that would only give us 2-3 quality wins. How does that translate to NCAA seeding?

[Brass Cannon 24,271]

Say we finish conference 5-4. Wins against PennSt, Nebraska and Illinois plus 2 more against the remaining teams (Mich, Mich St, Iowa and Purdue. Depending on how ND finishes that would only give us 2-3 quality wins. How does that translate to NCAA seeding?

You also have to factor in the BTT.

[Uspshoosier 45,157]

Say we finish conference 5-4. Wins against PennSt, Nebraska and Illinois plus 2 more against the remaining teams (Mich, Mich St, Iowa and Purdue. Depending on how ND finishes that would only give us 2-3 quality wins. How does that translate to NCAA seeding?

that would translate to being on the bubble and in your senerio being on the bubble with at least 2 wins vs those top teams would gives us 2 wins vs top 20 rpi teams and no bad losses besides Unlv which when teams are on the bubble they probably have bad losses and no top 25 wins. In my opinion that is a worst case senerio I don't think we will be anywhere near the bubble nor should we be. Just keep in mind all the other teams close to the bubble are not going to win all their games as well

[Miller'sTheMan 1,652]

that would translate to being on the bubble and in your senerio being on the bubble with at least 2 wins vs those top teams would gives us 2 wins vs top 20 rpi teams and no bad losses besides Unlv which when teams are on the bubble they probably have bad losses and no top 25 wins. In my opinion that is a worst case senerio I don't think we will be anywhere near the bubble nor should we be. Just keep in mind all the other teams close to the bubble are not going to win all their games as well

I don't think we'd even be on the bubble if we are 23-8 and 13-5 in the B1G.

[Uspshoosier 45,157]

I don't think we'd even be on the bubble if we are 23-8 and 13-5 in the B1G.

keep in mind in his senerio 12 of those 23 wins would be against rpi +150, 5 would be against rpi +101-149 teams, 3 wins against rpi 51-100 teams, and 3 wins agaisnt rpi top 50 teams. So in the worst case senerio it might be closer then a 23-8 team should be to the bubble. As of today we r 4-3 agaisnt rpi 51-100 teams but creighton and northwestern are 101 and 102. I personally don't think we will be anywhere near the bubble and to be honest this team shouldn't be near it

[Alford Bailey 12,354]

Looking at this schedule I think 5-4 could be a realistic expectation. We HAVE to get 3-4 good wins in the back half of this schedule IMO.

[8bucks 6,352]

I agree but at the same time you can't discount those blowouts against Ohio State, Illinois and Northwestern at home simply because they were not teams that will compete for a national title. And here's why. The last time IU beat Big Ten opponents by 30 points or more in the same conference season had been over a decade ago. And before that it like the 1993 and 1994 seasons. And so IU has played this level of opponent before, through the years, but this team has disposed of them like few other teams have in the past. I completely agree that IU hasn't really beaten a team that probably gets to the tournament with the exception of Notre Dame and maybe Creighton. And the games ahead will tell us a lot. But I also think you can't completely discount what it means to beat up on some of the teams Indiana has beaten the last nine games.

The thing with Crean is that he has had great Jan and early Febs only to fade down the stretch. In 2012-13 we beat some incredible teams at home and away during the early part of the BT season.

That is how many of us feel about this year. Your comment about us having short memories just seems the opposite of the situation to me. It is the history that is hurting Crean not a loss at Wisconsin or a poor game vs Minnesota.

The good news is that we have a 9 game stretch where we will find out who we are. Some good teams in this stretch.