Big Ten Tournament - Can Indiana get a Double Bye?

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

Decided to do a little research this afternoon and came up with the possible scenarios where Indiana would get a top 4 conference finish to get a double bye.   Based on the standings, I think 12-6 is going to be a log jam down the stretch.  I would guess spots 3-5 will all be at 12-6 and will come down to the tiebreaker.

 

Let's go through the rankings:

 

1. Wisconsin (13-1)
2. Maryland (10-4)
3. Michigan St (10-4)
4. Purdue (10-4)
5. Indiana (9-6)
6. Ohio State (8-6)
7. Iowa (8-6)

Indiana's schedule is (@NW, Iowa, Michigan State).   Indiana HAS to win all three of these games which would put the Hoosiers at (12-6).  This means that One of the following needs to lose at least 2 games (Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue).  

 

• Remaining games for Maryland:  (Wisconsin, Michigan, @ Rutgers, @ Nebraska).
  • Realistically, they probably lose to Wisconsin and win out.  Puts them at 13-5 and in 2nd place for big ten standings.  They get a double bye.   It's possible they drop 2 games in this group and end up at 12-6.  The same as the Hoosiers, this would come down to next tier tie breaker as the Hoosiers and Maryland split the season 1 -1.  (I'm not going into tie breakers because I would guess we will have multiple teams tied.
• Remaining games for Michigan State: (Minnesota, @ Wisconsin, Purdue, @Indiana)
  • We already know in our analysis we need Indiana to win out.  So therefore we are looking at the Spartans losing @ Wisconsin or to Purdue at home.  This seems quite likely they will lose @ Wisconsin and the Purdue game could be icing on the cake.  I'll add, that if the Spartans lose @ Wisconsin, then lose to Purdue.... That leaves the Hoosiers up next.  Ever seen an Izzo team drop 3 straight to finish the season?  I didn't think so.  
• Remaining games for Purdue: (Rutgers, @ OSU, @ MSU, Illinois)
  • I think it's extremely possible Purdue goes 2-2 over this stretch and ends up at 12-6.  They obviously swept the Hoosiers this year so we would need some other ties above to make this log jam happen.  Regardless, I think the Boilers would get the tie breaker over the Hoosiers in this scenario.
• Remaining games for Ohio State: (Nebraska, Purdue, @ Penn State, Wisconsin
  • The Buckeyes have to win all 4 games to get to 12-6 and I just don't see that happening.  It's definitely possible, and having 3 home games will help, but I don't see them beating Wisconsin in the final game so it's a moot point.
• Remaining games for Iowa: (Doesn't matter, they need 4 wins and they play IU, who we already assumed won out)

 

In short, I think the Hoosiers will be tied with Purdue and Michigan State at 12-6.  Tie breaking procedures ranks the teams by winning % among those tied.  

 

Records for Indiana, MSU & Purdue:

1. Purdue (2-0, game vs Michigan State remaining)
2. Michigan State (Currently 1-0, games vs Purdue & Indiana remaining)
3. Indiana (Currently 0-3,  1 game vs Michigan State remaining)

Therefore, it is impossible for Indiana to get a top 4 finish if we are tied with Purdue and Michigan State as they would both advance over Indiana due to winning percentage among the final three.

 

My Guess:

 

1. Wisconsin
2. Maryland (13-5)
3. Purdue (12-6)
4. Michigan State (12-6)
5. Indiana (12-6)

Conclusion:  The only way Indiana will secure a top 4 finish is IF....

• Indiana wins out + Purdue loses 3/4 or Michigan State loses 3/4.)  
• Indiana wins out, Purdue goes (4-0 or 3-1), Michigan State goes 2-2.  Hoosiers would advance on tie breaker assuming MSU loses to Wisconsin.  If MSU beats Wisconsin then MSU would get #4).

 

 

I'm not rereading this behemoth of a post... It probably doesn't make sense as I typed it while working through it...  Anyways, DISCUSS!

[Parakeet Jones 3,873]

We really screwed the pooch losing to PUke at home last Thursday. The thing that really ticked me about that game was I knew losing it cost us our chance at a Friday bye.

[Alford Bailey 12,809]

Its entirely possible a couple of those teams ahead of IU would lose 2. Big question to me is can IU win 3 in a row? Will be an interesting couple of weeks. 

 

 

Side note: Look at MSU. Remember when everyone was sayin how bad they were? Wouldn't finish top half of the league. LOL.

[FKfootball 1,046]

Lets just beat the team in front of us.

[WayneFleekHoosier 49,772]

Its entirely possible a couple of those teams ahead of IU would lose 2. Big question to me is can IU win 3 in a row? Will be an interesting couple of weeks.


Side note: Look at MSU. Remember when everyone was sayin how bad they were? Wouldn't finish top half of the league. LOL.

i was just thinking about MSU. Remarkable. They are not very talented at all.

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

Let me add, Purdouche's schedule is GARBAGE. Couldn't believe how weak it was after looking trough everything. Not surprising they have won 10 games now.

[CrossboneIU22 1,446]

MSU have decent big men, we have virtually 0% chance to win that game, home, away or on a neutral court.  We will be lucky to go 2-1 down the stretch.  Northwestern playing well too, it's entirely possible we could go 0-3 down the stretch although 1-2 or 2-1 is most likely the case.

[FortWayneHoosier 6,449]

Like I said in another thread, these 3 games are scarier than most think. We haven't been the best on the road and northwestern is better than most think, so we could def lose that one. Out of the next 3 games the Iowa game is the easiest one, and I expect to win that one. MSU seems to be playing well, and let's not forget the beating they put on us earlier in the season, and after losing to purdue at home I'm not so sure this game against MSU is easy at home.

[bleedhoosier 3,627]

I think we have punched the ticket regardless at this point but it's just a matter of seeding and hoping for a favorable first game.

We always suck in the BTT but can we at least just win one? 2 and I would be ecstatic, kinda. I mean how do we never get hot or play well during this conference tourney

[WayneFleekHoosier 49,772]

Let me add, Purdouche's schedule is GARBAGE. Couldn't believe how weak it was after looking trough everything. Not surprising they have won 10 games now.

yeah, they played Indiana twice....tic

[Alford Bailey 12,809]

I think we have punched the ticket regardless at this point but it's just a matter of seeding and hoping for a favorable first game.

We always suck in the BTT but can we at least just win one? 2 and I would be ecstatic, kinda. I mean how do we never get hot or play well during this conference tourney

Its mind boggling, really. I got mad in 2012 after we lost again to Wisky in Indy and havent been back to the tourney since. And havent missed much, either.

[TheStillman 991]

Its mind boggling, really. I got mad in 2012 after we lost again to Wisky in Indy and havent been back to the tourney since. And havent missed much, either.

 

The loss to Wisconsin in 2011-12 was one of the most disappointing games I have ever watched.  Rob Wilson man

[bleedhoosier 3,627]

The loss to Wisconsin in 2011-12 was one of the most disappointing games I have ever watched. Rob Wilson man

Oh I hate that u remember this and have no now reminded. What are the lottery odds with a scrub coming off the bench and ripping 8 3's. I've never seen anything like that in my life... except Matt Roth on OSU. But we weren't decent enough for OSU to even tip their hat

[Str8Hoosiers 2,965]

All that beautiful analysis and then the very 1st assumption made goes awry.... LOL (Maryland vs Wisc)...

 

So with new info what does that mean? I saw in another thread that actually really helps us as far as double bye chances go? I haven't looked at the other records (updated) so not sure... obviously we have to win out for any shot but maybe there is still hope afterall!!!

[jmsgws 2,181]

While mathematically it is still possible to get the double bye.  I would say it is highly unlikely.  Crapping our pants against Purdue cost us that opportunity. 

I don't think it makes any difference anyway.  We should be in the tourney as an 8 or 9 seed unless we totally blow the last few games.  Only way I see that seeding number changing much is if we run the table, including the B1G tourney.

[CR3AMnCR1MS0N 1,867]

Because MSU still has to play at Wiscy, I like our chances

[KelleyHoosh 2,263]

http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/basketball/2015/2/24/8098085/projecting-the-big-ten-tournament-hoops-field

Not sure if this is still accurate, but I would like this seed a lot. I think we would beat NW or PSU. MSU is definitely beatable, but as long as we have a decent showing there I think we would get a 7-9 seed in the March Madness

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

All that beautiful analysis and then the very 1st assumption made goes awry.... LOL (Maryland vs Wisc)...

 

So with new info what does that mean? I saw in another thread that actually really helps us as far as double bye chances go? I haven't looked at the other records (updated) so not sure... obviously we have to win out for any shot but maybe there is still hope afterall!!!

 

LOL.  Gotta love that.  That game didn't really matter as I had Maryland and Wisconsin at 1 and 2 regardless.  If anything it just makes it more difficult for Maryland to drop back to the pack at 12-6 so I'd say the analysis sticks :)

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

Here is the greatest LINK EVER.   Predict the finish to the big ten by selecting games.  Wow this is cool.

 

Coolest Link EVER

[KelleyHoosh 2,263]

I just did it and it looks to me like we really need Purdue to beat Ohio State and to win out (obviously) to get a four seed. That said, I wouldn't mind a worse seed and potentially better matchup in the BTT.