College Bball Thread

[Uspshoosier 53,799]

2 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

I have no idea why people don't have Iowa on the bubble right now.  0 Quad 1 wins.  Pom has their non-conference schedule as worse than IU's and their overall SOS was like 25 spots worse than IU's to start the night.

How was their NET in the top 20 entering tonight?

They smashed the teams they were suppose to beat.  Scored over 100 points in like 4 or 5 games.  Drove their efficiency up so high that they gave themselves a lot of wiggle room when it comes to the metrics.   Predictive metrics love them.  KenPom had them 21st 

[HoosierAloha 30,102]

1 hour ago, brumdog45 said:

Iowa simply does not play defense.

They play that Crean ole defense, they also go on turnover streaks. That's why us laying turds was so bad. Don't turn it over and they typically allow you a shot at the rim.

[RaceToTheTop 30,587]

20 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

They smashed the teams they were suppose to beat.  Scored over 100 points in like 4 or 5 games.  Drove their efficiency up so high that they gave themselves a lot of wiggle room when it comes to the metrics.   Predictive metrics love them.  KenPom had them 21st 

I get that.  But Pom is predictive and I thought that NET was kind of a compromise reflective/predictive rating.  I don't get the important of quads in NET rankings if a team that is 0-7 in Q1's is a top 20 (probably top 25 now).  There best win is still probably at home against Indiana or on the road at NIT bound Virginia.  

Has there ever been a P5 conference teams that gets an at large bid and doesn't have a victory over the field?  That's still a distinct possiblity for Iowa.

[Uspshoosier 53,799]

17 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

I get that.  But Pom is predictive and I thought that NET was kind of a compromise reflective/predictive rating.  I don't get the important of quads in NET rankings if a team that is 0-7 in Q1's is a top 20 (probably top 25 now).  There best win is still probably at home against Indiana or on the road at NIT bound Virginia.  

Has there ever been a P5 conference teams that gets an at large bid and doesn't have a victory over the field?  That's still a distinct possiblity for Iowa.

It does. It has a teams efficiency rating which is predictive and has the team value index which takes in account who you played, where you played and who you beat which is results based.  Like with any other metic the final number isn’t the whole story.   When they review the team sheet I’m sure the committee members can see a bpi, KenPom and Sag predictive rating of 18 with a NET of 19 and realize they are not the 18th best team or resume and dig deeper.   Looking at results based results show a SOR-38 and KPI-54.  Combine that with a bad non conference SOS and you can conclude that Iowa is closer to the results base numbers instead of the predictive ones and they will be seeded accordingly or not make it at all 

[johnsoniu 7,048]

Gotta love an honest ref lol. Baseline ref in Houston/UCF game has just shrugged his shoulders and looked for help the last 3 out of bounds balls that were his calls.


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[RaceToTheTop 30,587]

12 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

It does. It has a teams efficiency rating which is predictive and has the team value index which takes in account who you played, where you played and who you beat which is results based.  Like with any other metic the final number isn’t the whole story.   When they review the team sheet I’m sure the committee members can see a bpi, KenPom and Sag predictive rating of 18 with a NET of 19 and realize they are not the 18th best team or resume and dig deeper.   Looking at results based results show a SOR-38 and KPI-54.  Combine that with a bad non conference SOS and you can conclude that Iowa is closer to the results base numbers instead of the predictive ones and they will be seeded accordingly or not make it at all 

Thanks for the explanation.  What is KPI?  I know SOR.  

Iowa does have 4 road games left and only two home games.  One of the road games is Nebraska, but I think much like IU, they are looking for three more victories.  Easiest path is to win the home ones plus the road game at Nebraska.  Games at Ohio State, Illinois and Michigan will be tough tasks.....home against Northwestern and at Nebraska pretty promising, but the other home game is against Michigan State.

[RaceToTheTop 30,587]

Arizona State just stomping Oregon right now, up 22 with 6 minutes left.  Not a good look for the Ducks, especially after the home loss to California.

[Uspshoosier 53,799]

7 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Thanks for the explanation.  What is KPI?  I know SOR.  

Iowa does have 4 road games left and only two home games.  One of the road games is Nebraska, but I think much like IU, they are looking for three more victories.  Easiest path is to win the home ones plus the road game at Nebraska.  Games at Ohio State, Illinois and Michigan will be tough tasks.....home against Northwestern and at Nebraska pretty promising, but the other home game is against Michigan State.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2022-02-09/mens-college-basketball-rankings-what-kpi

[lillurk 4,976]

5 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Arizona State just stomping Oregon right now, up 22 with 6 minutes left.  Not a good look for the Ducks, especially after the home loss to California.

Bad news for Oregon is good news for the Hoosiers, more cushion if IU can take care of its own business

[RaceToTheTop 30,587]

9 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2022-02-09/mens-college-basketball-rankings-what-kpi

Just started reading it, but what's funny is that is pretty much I've been doing with my system.  I see their KPI ranks wins and losses from 'around' +1 to -1.  Mine basically does that as well -- the highest point value you could get would beating the #1 Pom rated team on the road -- my calculations have a bubble tournament team having a 5% chance to beating the #1 team on the road.  So a win at the #1 team in essence yields a +0.95 result since you are 95% of a win to the positive.  A loss on the road at #1 yields a -0.05 result since you are 5% of a win down.  I have a bubble team winning nearly 99% of the time at home against teams ranked 265 or higher, so a win at home against that type of team yields only a +.01 result.  A loss is dangerous....yields a -0.99 result.

I'm seeing striking similarities in how I've ranked teams and how KPI has.  I have Gonzaga at 13;  they have them at 12.  I have IU overall at 65 followed immediately by Oklahoma at 66; they have them at 63 and 64.  Most bracketologists don't have VCU near the cut line;  I have them in in the last four byes and KPI has them even safer than that.

[Hoosierfan1901 8,248]

Big stretch coming up for my Eagles right now, I think they are outside of the D2 Midwest region rankings right now. Currently sitting at 15-6 (10-5) with 3 games left in the regular season. Hopefully we can squeak into the D2 tournament one last time. Also are 1 GB Lewis in the East Division

[HoosierHoops1 5,024]

On 2/16/2022 at 8:40 PM, Uspshoosier said:

Hard for a team to beat 5 top 16 teams 16 days.  They are due for a loss 

I believe I heard they were the 1st unranked team to beat 4 ranked teams in consecutive games.

[Hovadipo 61,303]

Maybe they just need a more elite eye test. I know a few places they could look.

[Class of '66 Old Fart 89,826]

Appears that Crean's staff can't play nice together.

https://247sports.com/college/indiana/Article/Georgia-basketball-assistant-coach-Wade-Mason-suspended-for-altercation-with-staffer-183067374/

[Uspshoosier 53,799]

28 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

Maybe they just need a more elite eye test. I know a few places they could look.

I will post this one as well.  Notice the highlighted area.   

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 9,257]

Did some looking into how seeds do against other in the tourney over the last 10 tournaments. 

2 seeds have done very well when meeting 1 seeds in the Elite. 6-4 actually. But... When they meet other seeds in the Elite... 1-4. Their 1 win coming against a 12 seed. 

[Uspshoosier 53,799]

Ohio forgot they were playing today.   Kent St up 25 with 3:50 left in the first half.   Going to have to take them off the list now @johnsoniu

[johnsoniu 7,048]

Lol
Senderoff has the Flashes peaking at the right time


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[NashvilleHoosier 3,897]

31 minutes ago, johnsoniu said:

Lol
Senderoff has the Flashes peaking at the right time


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Put a bet in at halftime for Ohio to cover +25.5. 

[johnsoniu 7,048]

Put a bet in at halftime for Ohio to cover +25.5. 

You owe the big white kid lunch lol


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