2024 IUFB Season

[HoosierFan1994]

4 minutes ago, Josh said:

BYU and Miami getting byes is enough evidence to scrap the conference champion bye rule after just one year

Yes. Let them in automatically. But don't give them a bye. Whoever is the 5 seed is rolling to the semifinals. 

[HoosierFan1994]

4 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

Tennessee Georgia is fascinating. It should be an elimination game yet I’m not convinced it actually is. 

Here is what will be interesting...if the favorites win out it'll be 11-1 Texas vs. 10-2 Bama (They get the tiebreaker) in the SEC title game. Should Bama lose do they get punished for losing that game? Looking like based on odds it'll be 10-2 Georgia, 10-2 Tennessee, 10-2 Ole Miss and maybe 10-3 Alabama. One of those teams gets left out unless Notre Dame loses. Two of those teams get left out if BYU is 12-0 and loses their conference title game. Insane. 

[JerryYeagley23]

2 minutes ago, HoosierFan1994 said:

Agree...am I crazy to think this...is it better to lose the Big Ten Title game? You'd be #5 seed. Probably play Boise State at home and be a heavy favorite. Then play ACC or Big 12 champ (which could be Colorado) at a neutral site. 

#1 seed probably plays an SEC team at a neutral site. 

You’re not crazy. It’s a bad system as soon as conference realignment happened. And why the B1G and SEC had that strategic alliance meeting earlier this fall. There’s zero reason a team you deem the 9th best team in the country should be seeded 4th. It’s dumb. Seed them 1-12 and stop pretending winning a mediocre conference means anything. 

[Hovadipo]

1 minute ago, HoosierFan1994 said:

Here is what will be interesting...if the favorites win out it'll be 11-1 Texas vs. 10-2 Bama (They get the tiebreaker) in the SEC title game. Should Bama lose do they get punished for losing that game? Looking like based on odds it'll be 10-2 Georgia, 10-2 Tennessee, 10-2 Ole Miss and maybe 10-3 Alabama. One of those teams gets left out unless Notre Dame loses. Two of those teams get left out if BYU is 12-0 and loses their conference title game. Insane. 

Those scenarios all make my Hoosier palms sweat if (IF) we’re 11-1. The strength of schedule emergency chute will always be there for the committee. 

[JerryYeagley23]

1 minute ago, Hovadipo said:

Those scenarios all make my Hoosier palms sweat if (IF) we’re 11-1. The strength of schedule emergency chute will always be there for the committee. 

That keeps getting parroted, but does anyone know what number our SOS will be once we play OSU? Are we just being punished because we haven’t played the best team on our schedule and everyone else has?

[HoosierFan1994]

6 minutes ago, JerryYeagley23 said:

You’re not crazy. It’s a bad system as soon as conference realignment happened. And why the B1G and SEC had that strategic alliance meeting earlier this fall. There’s zero reason a team you deem the 9th best team in the country should be seeded 4th. It’s dumb. Seed them 1-12 and stop pretending winning a mediocre conference means anything. 

Imagine if SMU, Colorado, and Boise State win their leagues...You could have 3 seeded Boise State, 4 seeded SMU and 12 seeded Colorado. 

[HoosierFan1994]

7 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

Those scenarios all make my Hoosier palms sweat if (IF) we’re 11-1. The strength of schedule emergency chute will always be there for the committee. 

I'd be more worried if Indiana was still 8th this week. They jumped one loss Tennessee who has better wins and probably a tougher schedule. I see no way they fall from 5 overall to all the way out of the playoff....as long as IU beats Purdue LOL

[Hovadipo]

3 minutes ago, JerryYeagley23 said:

That keeps getting parroted, but does anyone know what number our SOS will be once we play OSU? Are we just being punished because we haven’t played the best team on our schedule and everyone else has?

I’m under the impression that future opponents are baked into the formula. I’m only an idiot that looks at metrics though, I have no idea how they’re calculated. OSU not currently factoring into our SOS rating would certainly change my tune. 

[Hovadipo]

1 minute ago, HoosierFan1994 said:

I'd be more worried if Indiana was still 8th this week. They jumped one loss Tennessee who has better wins and probably a tougher schedule. I see no way they fall from 5 overall to all the way out of the playoff....as long as IU beats Purdue LOL

Yep I agree. I just worry in the back of my mind about the committee taking their current logic and setting it on fire once we hit December. 

[JerryYeagley23]

3 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

I’m under the impression that future opponents are baked into the formula. I’m only an idiot that looks at metrics though, I have no idea how they’re calculated. OSU not currently factoring into our SOS rating would certainly change my tune. 

So you start the season with the same SOS that you end the season with? Seems like that wouldn’t leave much room for reassessing your schedule strength as teams over/under perform their preseason rankings. 

[Home Jersey]

If they could snub undefeated ACC champion FSU in the 4 team playoff last year, they could screw 11-1 IU in the 12 team playoff IMO. Not saying we’d definitely be on the outside looking in but I sure hope we don’t leave any room for question and take care of business against OSU. 

[HoosierFan1994]

2 minutes ago, Home Jersey said:

If they could snub undefeated ACC champion FSU in the 4 team playoff last year, they could screw 11-1 IU in the 12 team playoff IMO. Not saying we’d definitely be on the outside looking in but I sure hope we don’t leave any room for question and take care of business against OSU. 

Only scenario that worries me...IU loses by 20 plus at Ohio State and beats Purdue by only 7 points or so. I don't think either happens. 

 While I didn't agree with it, FSU got snubbed because their QB was out. If he was healthy I don't think they get left out. 

[Hovadipo]

3 minutes ago, JerryYeagley23 said:

So you start the season with the same SOS that you end the season with? Seems like that wouldn’t leave much room for reassessing your schedule strength as teams over/under perform their preseason rankings. 

I don’t think that’s what I claimed? Why would it not still change throughout the season? 

[JerryYeagley23]

4 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

I don’t think that’s what I claimed? Why would it not still change throughout the season? 

I don’t know, I was asking you. Legitimately. Not adversarially. 
 

If your future opponents are baked in, then when you start the season they judge your whole season for strength. Then is it just adjusted each week as your future (and past?) teams played perform better or worse?

I guess I just assumed because commentators seem to use “they haven’t played anybody” and “look at their strength of schedule” similarly, that your SOS was backward looking. 

[Uspshoosier]

5 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

I don’t think that’s what I claimed? Why would it not still change throughout the season? 

If it’s anything like basketball it should change after each game played.  When teams you played play other teams there should always be some movement.    Last weeks first reveal they were 103 SOS and this week they were 100.  My guess after they  play OSU you will see a bigger jump.   That’s my take on it but I’m a basketball guy and could totally be wrong 

[Hovadipo]

2 minutes ago, JerryYeagley23 said:

I don’t know, I was asking you. Legitimately. Not adversarially. 
 

If your future opponents are baked in, then when you start the season they judge your whole season for strength. Then is it just adjusted each week as your future (and past?) teams played perform better or worse?

I would assume it’s a KenPom type of deal where it doesn’t really tell you a story until everyone has played some games. I’m clueless enough on this that I asked ChatGPT about ESPN’s formula:

ESPN's Strength of Schedule (SOS) metric primarily evaluates a team's opponents based on the games they have already played, as well as their current performance in the season. While the SOS metric is mainly focused on past and present opponents, it does take future opponents into account to some extent, particularly in the context of how those future opponents are performing throughout the season.

Surely someone on here has some insight on how these things work. @RaceToTheTop is a metrics guy. 

[HoosierFan1994]

3 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

If it’s anything like basketball it should change after each game played.  When teams you played play other teams there should always be some movement.    Last weeks first reveal they were 103 SOS and this week they were 100.  My guess after they  play OSU you will see a bigger jump.   That’s my take on it but I’m a basketball guy and could totally be wrong 

Unfortunately Purdue probably evens it all out. Those clowns are the only B1G team right now that is completely out of a bowl game. 

[go iu bb]

30 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

Those scenarios all make my Hoosier palms sweat if (IF) we’re 11-1. The strength of schedule emergency chute will always be there for the committee. 

The schedule will look better by then. OSU will give it a big bump. The UCLA win is starting to look better.

[Hovadipo]

Regardless if we ever crack the SOS code, it sure seems to me like the committee is looking at SOR more than SOS, which is great news for the Hoosiers. 

[Uspshoosier]

5 minutes ago, HoosierFan1994 said:

Unfortunately Purdue probably evens it all out. Those clowns are the only B1G team right now that is completely out of a bowl game. 

It might help it actually.  Purdue has a SOS of 12 overall if committee uses ESPNs SOS. From the little research I just did IU has the 8th toughest remaining schedule.  That’s going by espns graphs