Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier 44,744]

4 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

UCLA came out of nowhere one year.  Think it might have before NET, though.  Think they had appeared on only one bracket in the bracketmatrix.

The most shocking selection i remember was Air Force way back in the day 

[Uspshoosier 44,744]

Tulsa was probably the last one where everyone in the bracketology world lost their mind about 

[Hoosierfan1901 5,943]

On TeamRankings, 20% increase in making the tournament. Went from 25% yesterday to now 45.2% overnight.

[hoopsta007 383]

1 hour ago, Hoosierfan1901 said:

On TeamRankings, 20% increase in making the tournament. Went from 25% yesterday to now 45.2% overnight.

Historically are they accurate?

[Hoosierfan1901 5,943]

7 minutes ago, hoopsta007 said:

Historically are they accurate?

Pretty accurate in my opinion, they gave us like an 80% chance back in 2022. I still think we have to win the BTT to even make it.

[RaceToTheTop 24,660]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

The year ucla was in the first 4 they were projected in 194 out of 211 brackets 

Projected in the tournament or out of the tournament?

[Uspshoosier 44,744]

2 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Projected in the tournament or out of the tournament?

In 

[RaceToTheTop 24,660]

1 hour ago, Hoosierfan1901 said:

On TeamRankings, 20% increase in making the tournament. Went from 25% yesterday to now 45.2% overnight.

Torvik has IU as a 1.5% chance.  I'd say that is accurate.

[Hoosierfan1901 5,943]

2 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Torvik has IU as a 1.5% chance.  I'd say that is accurate.

Probably the right percentage 

[RaceToTheTop 24,660]

4 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

In 

2018 or 2021?  Think they've been in two first fours.

[Uspshoosier 44,744]

Just now, RaceToTheTop said:

2018 or 2021?  Think they've been in two first fours.

2021 

[Uspshoosier 44,744]

1 minute ago, Uspshoosier said:

2021 

2018 they were in 179 out of 187 brackets 

[Hoosier987 1,039]

I don't think the committee weights the conference tournament as heavily. If memory serves, in recent years there have been several teams that have thought they would've gotten a higher seed or made the tournament based off of conference tournament results. I think we were the last team in in 2022 despite our wins against Michigan and Illinois in the BTT with many feeling pretty confident after the Michigan win...also, wasn't it Texas A&M who ran through the BIG 12 tournament a couple of years ago and made it to the championship game, only to get snubbed by the committee? 

[Uspshoosier 44,744]

16 minutes ago, Hoosier987 said:

with many feeling pretty confident after the Michigan win...also, wasn't it Texas A&M who ran through the BIG 12 tournament a couple of years ago and made it to the championship game, only to get snubbed by the committee? 

Yeah A&M got left out.   History tells you after Friday results don’t matter.   Notre Dame was last team in the field that year 

[RaceToTheTop 24,660]

39 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

2018 they were in 179 out of 187 brackets 

Huh.  Guess I am misremembering.  Seem to remember a team getting in that wasn't in almost anyone's bracket but it wasn't Belmont.

[Hoosierfan222 732]

I’m honestly pretty confused how a 21 win Big Ten team could be left out, if in theory we lose in the championship 

[Uspshoosier 44,744]

13 minutes ago, Hoosierfan222 said:

I’m honestly pretty confused how a 21 win Big Ten team could be left out, if in theory we lose in the championship 

Having most your wins in the B1G against the bottom of the conference and only going 1-7 (that would move to 3-7) against teams in the B1G that are tournament quality teams.  0 big wins in the non conference.   Nebraska went 13-5 in the B1G years ago and didn’t make it because all they did was beat up on the bottom of the barrel B1G teams 

[RaceToTheTop 24,660]

49 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Having most your wins in the B1G against the bottom of the conference and only going 1-7 (that would move to 3-7) against teams in the B1G that are tournament quality teams.  0 big wins in the non conference.   Nebraska went 13-5 in the B1G years ago and didn’t make it because all they did was beat up on the bottom of the barrel B1G teams 

Believe they also were not very good in non-conference.  Went back and checked and they were 9-4 non-conference.  Two losses were to teams that made the tournament, two were to non-tournament teams.  Only beat one team in non-conference with a POM under 100.

They did beat Michigan that year who made it to the final four.

[RaceToTheTop 24,660]

With the earlierest game, WAR has Mississippi State moving into the field, replacing Michigan State.  Hope the NCAA would consider today's game some because that is a heck of resume adder for Miss St.

[Lebowski 2,273]

5 hours ago, Hoosierfan222 said:

I’m honestly pretty confused how a 21 win Big Ten team could be left out, if in theory we lose in the championship 

The margin of victory and losses is the main driving metric. IUBB is suffering from wining games by less than 10 (9.6 to be exact). Even though they have one of the best, if not the best, records in the conference of wins by single digits (aka close games). Also, blowout losses to UConn and Auburn in November and December carry more weight than a winning streak or clicking at the right time late in the season.

Bottom line, the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings hate Indiana's resume. The NET rankings apparently carries more weight with blowout wins to mid-majors and wins in November and December over improving during the season and ending the regular season on a four-game winning streak. Basically the current system places value on blowing teams out, does not value close wins against weaker opponents and penalizes teams that suffer blowout losses even if it's to better teams. All of this happened to IUBB. 
 

IUBB basically has to win the Big Ten tournament in order to punch a ticket. But personally, I think they are good enough to make the tournament right now without anymore wins. But that's just me. It is what it is.