Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier]

16 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Pom and Tarvik both predicting 6-5 in the remaining schedule, 20-10 overall.  IMO that would certainly get IU in.  5-6, 19-11 would be on the bubble.

Percentage chance of winning each (first Pom, then Tarvik):

Penn St   74 / 81

Wisky  59 / 64

@Maryland  53 / 55 

@Northwestern  49 / 53

@Minny  55 / 56

Rutgers  80 / 86

Maryland  75 /80

Illinois 49 / 50

@Ohio St  34 / 38

@Sparty  30 / 31

@Purdue  18 / 18

It would depend on what 6 games they won and how the  bubble cut line looks.  They just as easily go 6-5 and not make it.
 

It’s possible they could  win 6 games against non-tourney teams.   In that case they would only have 2 wins vs the projected field.   With a non conference SOS  of 340 out of 358 and only 2 wins against tourney quality teams IU could be on the wrong side of the bubble even with a 11-9 conference record.    Hard to tell for sure until it got closer to March but it could go either way.   Now if more of those 6 wins are against tournament quality teams then they shouldn’t have anything to worry about 

[Stuhoo]

10 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

It would depend on what 6 games they won and how the  bubble cut line looks.  They just as easily go 6-5 and not make it.
 

It’s possible they could  win 6 games against non-tourney teams.   In that case they would only have 2 wins vs the projected field.   With a non conference SOS  of 340 out of 358 and only 2 wins against tourney quality teams IU could be on the wrong side of the bubble even with a 11-9 conference record.    Hard to tell for sure until it got closer to March but it could go either way.   Now if more of those 6 wins are against tournament quality teams then they shouldn’t have anything to worry about 

Currently the Bracket Project has us in 89 of 90 bracket projections.

We have at least five games left against tourney teams. Winning two of those and 19 total wins gets us in safely IMO.

Win one more of those, and win at least 19 total games and I'm guessing we're in, though with only one more top tier win 20 wins would be much better.

[Uspshoosier]

5 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Currently the Bracket Project has us in 89 of 90 bracket projections.

We have at least five games left against tourney teams. Winning two of those and 19 total wins gets us in safely IMO.

Win one more of those, and win at least 19 total games and I'm guessing we're in, though with only one more top tier win 20 wins would be much better.

Then you are relying on the committee to do something that historically they don’t do and that is take a bubble team on the cut line  with a Non conference SOS 260+. IU possibly would get in depending on what the bubble looks like but I wouldn’t feel great about it with a non con that bad 

[Uspshoosier]

Still too many factors to give a definitive set number of wins for IU to make the tourney.   Notre Dame and St. John’s making runs in their conference would help out a lot 

[Stuhoo]

7 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Then you are relying on the committee to do something that historically they don’t do and that is take a bubble team on the cut line  with a Non conference SOS 260+. IU possibly would get in depending on what the bubble looks like but I wouldn’t feel great about it with a non con that bad 

Go Notre Dame?

[RaceToTheTop]

2 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

It would depend on what 6 games they won and how the  bubble cut line looks.  They just as easily go 6-5 and not make it.
 

It’s possible they could  win 6 games against non-tourney teams.   In that case they would only have 2 wins vs the projected field.   With a non conference SOS  of 340 out of 358 and only 2 wins against tourney quality teams IU could be on the wrong side of the bubble even with a 11-9 conference record.    Hard to tell for sure until it got closer to March but it could go either way.   Now if more of those 6 wins are against tournament quality teams then they shouldn’t have anything to worry about 

Assuming that Minnesota isn't a tournament team, it would seem to me that going 6 for 6 against non-tournament team and zero for 5 against tournament ones would be a pretty low statistical possibility.  Obviously it's all conjecture, but I think it would take some pretty extreme circumstances to come up with a scenario where 20-10, 11-9 doesn't make the tournament for IU.  Right now pretty much everyone has IU on the safe side of the bubble around 8 to 10 and I don't think a 6 and 5 finish moves the needle either way.

Conferences I find intriguing are the WCC and Moutain West.  Four teams in each legitimately could be tournament bound and that doesn't include Fresno State potentially making a run.  That said, there's a strong possibility that in those groups a team or more slips or gets eaten up by the others.  San Francisco is certainly an interesting case.

[RaceToTheTop]

FWIW, here are some of the other non-Big Ten +/- from cut lines of teams I've ran in the system I discussed.  From looking at where some numbers have been coming out, cut line would be somewhere around +0.6.  IU is at +0.9 and would move to +1.2 with a win over Penn State tonight but fall to +0.2 with a loss.

St.Mary's +2.1

St. John's -1.3

Notre Dame +0.3

Wyoming +2.4

Davidson +2.6

Murray State +1.5

North Carolina +1.1

Oregon +0.5

Oklahoma St  -0.3

Baylor +5.5

San Fran +1.7

Florida -1.6

Iona +2.1

Boise St +1.5

Florida St +1.5

Miami (F) +1.6

Oklahoma +0.2

Belmont +0.1

San Diego St +1.1

Colorado St +3.1

TCU +1.4

I have a second version which takes the +/- and compares it to the total number of expected wins as a percentage which seems to be a little bit better indicator as it seems that teams with an easier schedule tend to be able to exceed their predicted wins a little bit more.

[RaceToTheTop]

2 hours ago, Stuhoo said:

Go Notre Dame?

They certainly have it going right now.  Won 8 of 9 since the IU loss.

[HoosierAloha]

7 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

They certainly have it going right now.  Won 8 of 9 since the IU loss.

Even a few solid wins in there against Clemson and UNC.

[RaceToTheTop]

2 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Then you are relying on the committee to do something that historically they don’t do and that is take a bubble team on the cut line  with a Non conference SOS 260+. IU possibly would get in depending on what the bubble looks like but I wouldn’t feel great about it with a non con that bad 

Question for you:  if non-con SOS is figured in total SOS, why does non-con SOS matter?

Don't know what NET SOS is, but IU's current SOS on POM is at 96.  IMO, if a 14-5 team with a SOS of 96 is deserving or not deserving, I don't care how they got the SOS.....could care less if they were a P5 with a weak non-conference schedule and tough conference or a mid major with a tough SOS and a weak conference.   Just seems to me that having a non-con SOS and an overall SOS double counts non-conference since they are already in total SOS.

[RaceToTheTop]

Blind resume talk (not involving IU):

Team A:

16-4

Q1 3-4

Q2 2-0

Q3 3-0

Q4 8-0

Don't have NET SOS, but POM SOS of 95 (313 non-conference)

Team B:

16-2

Q1 3-1

Q2 4-1

Q3 3-0

Q4 6-0

POM SOS 72 (non-conference 174)

Which team would you give the better seed?

[Uspshoosier]

18 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Question for you:  if non-con SOS is figured in total SOS, why does non-con SOS matter?

Don't know what NET SOS is, but IU's current SOS on POM is at 96.  IMO, if a 14-5 team with a SOS of 96 is deserving or not deserving, I don't care how they got the SOS.....could care less if they were a P5 with a weak non-conference schedule and tough conference or a mid major with a tough SOS and a weak conference.   Just seems to me that having a non-con SOS and an overall SOS double counts non-conference since they are already in total SOS.

Because it shows the committee how teams schedule outside there conference games.   The teams control how they schedule.  My guess is they don’t want to reward teams for going out and playing a terrible non conference when they had control on who they could play.   Just another data point to separate teams.  

If you want to play a soft schedule to pad wins that’s fine but know the committee values teams that goes out and challenges themselves outside of conference.  

[Uspshoosier]

16 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Blind resume talk (not involving IU):

Team A:

16-4

Q1 3-4

Q2 2-0

Q3 3-0

Q4 8-0

Don't have NET SOS, but POM SOS of 95 (313 non-conference)

Team B:

16-2

Q1 3-1

Q2 4-1

Q3 3-0

Q4 6-0

POM SOS 72 (non-conference 174)

Which team would you give the better seed?

About the same seed 4-5 range.   I have Providence ahead of Kentucky though but not by much.   It’s close 

[RaceToTheTop]

8 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Because it shows the committee how teams schedule outside there conference games.   The teams control how they schedule.  My guess is they don’t want to reward teams for going out and playing a terrible non conference when they had control on who they could play.   Just another data point to separate teams.  

If you want to play a soft schedule to pad wins that’s fine but know the committee values teams that goes out and challenges themselves outside of conference.  

But on the other hand, good mid majors know they can load up on their non-conference games because they are going to have a large number of gimmee wins in conference.  

I mean, it's great and all that Murray State had a non-conference of 78.  But now halfway through conference play, their SOS is 313.  An conference play represents about 2/3 of your games anyway.  To me, I'd want to look at whether Murray State with their 16-2 record and 313 SOS was good enough (and looking at the individual breakdown) rather than looking at them as a team with a 16-2 record and a 78 non-conference SOS.

[RaceToTheTop]

8 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

About the same seed 4-5 range.   I have Providence ahead of Kentucky though but not by much.   It’s close 

Yeah, most have Providence behind Kentucky which I don't understand.  On the bracketmatrix Kentucky is the second fourth seed overall while Providence is the first sixth seed.  And on both NET and Pom, it isn't even close -- Kentucky is 9 on POM and Providence is 54.

[Uspshoosier]

2 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

But on the other hand, good mid majors know they can load up on their non-conference games because they are going to have a large number of gimmee wins in conference.  

I mean, it's great and all that Murray State had a non-conference of 78.  But now halfway through conference play, their SOS is 313.  An conference play represents about 2/3 of your games anyway.  To me, I'd want to look at whether Murray State with their 16-2 record and 313 SOS was good enough (and looking at the individual breakdown) rather than looking at them as a team with a 16-2 record and a 78 non-conference SOS.

Also have a lot of chances to lose bad games in their weak conference.   Deck is always stacked against mid-majors.   

 

Just now, brumdog45 said:

Yeah, most have Providence behind Kentucky which I don't understand.  On the bracketmatrix Kentucky is the second fourth seed overall while Providence is the first sixth seed.  And on both NET and Pom, it isn't even close -- Kentucky is 9 on POM and Providence is 54.

I only pay attention to a couple bracketologist so i don’t look at the matrix that much.   The ones I look at have those 2 teams  pretty close.  

[HoosierHoopster]

37 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Yeah, most have Providence behind Kentucky which I don't understand.  On the bracketmatrix Kentucky is the second fourth seed overall while Providence is the first sixth seed.  And on both NET and Pom, it isn't even close -- Kentucky is 9 on POM and Providence is 54.

Just branding, Prov doesn’t have the same cache - should be above UK

[Hovadipo]

Can someone run me through NET implications for destroying a conference team at home again? Asking for a friend. 

[RaceToTheTop]

Last long post -- I'm just going to be posting to links for anyone that is interested.

I'm having a ball right now making my own team sheets based on my value of teams.  Won't bore you with the details, but teams are given their value compared to what a team would need to have in total minimum number of wins to just eek into the tournament.  I've ran it for 48 teams so far -- some that I know have no chance at making just so I could see where they project.  After I get all of the teams that I think have a shot at making the tournament as an at large.  The first column is the number of wins the team has (non D1 one wins are removed), followed by 'needed wins' which is the number expected from their schedule that they would need to win to get in, followed by SOS (for purposes of calculations, high SOS is not good, low SOS is good), and finally +/-.  I haven't finished, but I'm projecting the cut line would be somewhere around +0.5 right now.

Team	actual wins	needed wins	SOS	plus/minus
Auburn	19	12.5	0.627	6.5
Kansas	17	11.2	0.592	5.8
Baylor	18	12.5	0.623	5.5
Wisconsin	15	9.9	0.549	5.1
Michigan St	16	11.4	0.598	4.6
Arizona	16	12	0.67	4
LSU	16	12	0.599	4
UCLA	14	10.1	0.631	3.9
Purdue	16	12.3	0.648	3.7
Villanova	15	11.3	0.565	3.7
Houston	17	13.9	0.731	3.1
Colorado State	15	12	0.747	3
Gonzaga	15	12	0.703	3
Tennessee	14	11	0.579	3
Duke	16	13.2	0.693	2.8
Kentucky	16	13.5	0.676	2.5
Ohio State	12	9.6	0.597	2.4
Texas Tech	15	12.7	0.636	2.3
St.Mary's	14	11.9	0.661	2.1
Iona	17	14.9	0.761	2.1
Miami (F)	15	12.9	0.646	2.1
Wyoming	14	12	0.705	2
Illinois	13	11	0.609	2
Davidson	15	13.1	0.726	1.9
Boise State	15	13.2	0.692	1.8
San Francisco	15	13.3	0.698	1.7
Murray St	15	13.5	0.795	1.5
TCU	13	11.6	0.726	1.4
UNC	14	12.7	0.636	1.3
Texas Tech	15	13.7	0.682	1.3
Indiana	15	13.8	0.692	1.2
Iowa	14	12.9	0.681	1.1
Belmont	15	13.9	0.734	1.1
San Diego State	11	9.9	0.66	1.1
Florida State	13	12.1	0.635	0.9
Minnesota	11	10.4	0.652	0.6
Notre Dame	12	11.5	0.637	0.5
Michigan	10	9.6	0.602	0.4
Oklahoma	12	11.8	0.622	0.2
Oregon	11	11.2	0.621	-0.2
Oklahoma St	10	10.8	0.571	-0.8
Rutgers	11	12	0.669	-1
St.John's	11	12.3	0.684	-1.3
Penn State	8	9.6	0.601	-1.6
Florida	12	13.6	0.717	-1.6
Maryland	10	11.9	0.626	-1.9
Northwestern	8	10.2	0.638	-2.2
Nebraska	6	11.8	0.618	-5.8

[Uspshoosier]

21 hours ago, Hovadipo said:

Can someone run me through NET implications for destroying a conference team at home again? Asking for a friend. 

Moved up 5 spots