Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier]

Liberty down 12 to Lipscomb with 7 1/2 minutes left.  It’s one they can’t afford to lose and have a chance at an at large if they don’t win their tournament.

They had no shot at an at-large even before this game


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[Uspshoosier]

Liberty down 12 to Lipscomb with 7 1/2 minutes left.  It’s one they can’t afford to lose and have a chance at an at large if they don’t win their tournament.

ETSU on the other is down 8 at home to Western Carolina with 13 min to go. They probably can not afford to lose this one


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[JerryYeagley23]

Syracuse down 13 at home to North Carolina. That would be a nail in the coffin for their tourney hopes.
 

I just can’t see the ACC getting more than four bids this year unless ND beats FSU next week and probably wins a couple games in the conference tourney. 

[JerryYeagley23]

How is West Virginia ranked?

Honestly, they’ve lost 5 of their last 6 games (about to be 6 of 7, as they’re getting smoked by 20 at home to Oklahoma), and have a really weak looking resume of wins, with Ohio State pretty much their only good win and that was back in early December right when the Buckeyes were hitting free fall mode. 

They would be my absolute ideal matchup to get as a 6 or 7 seed in our region of the bracket. 

[JerryYeagley23]

@Uspshoosier if Oklahoma keeps it up and beats WV today, how many bids do you see as realistically possible for the Big 12? Is it Texas OR Oklahoma, or could they potentially both get in? Seems aggressive to think that half of the that conference could go dancing (5 of 10 teams)

[BGVille Hoosierfan]

How is West Virginia ranked?
Honestly, they’ve lost 5 of their last 6 games (about to be 6 of 7, as they’re getting smoked by 20 at home to Oklahoma), and have a really weak looking resume of wins, with Ohio State pretty much their only good win and that was back in early December right when the Buckeyes were hitting free fall mode. 
They would be my absolute ideal matchup to get as a 6 or 7 seed in our region of the bracket. 

I’ve watched them several times this year and they look more inept on offense than we do. They may play themselves onto the bubble. They are bad.


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[Uspshoosier]

[mention=4127]Uspshoosier[/mention] if Oklahoma keeps it up and beats WV today, how many bids do you see as realistically possible for the Big 12? Is it Texas OR Oklahoma, or could they potentially both get in? Seems aggressive to think that half of the that conference could go dancing (5 of 10 teams)

I could see 5 from the Big 12. Texas has just done enough to get back on the bubble so they still have some work. Texas Tech is playing its way onto the bubble. I still think they will get 5


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[JerryYeagley23]

17 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

I could see 5 from the Big 12. Texas has just done enough to get back on the bubble so they still have some work. Texas Tech is playing its way onto the bubble. I still think they will get 5

Interesting. Wow. That’s generous. Agreed Texas Tech is in trouble. Two games remaining for them and they’re against Kansas and Baylor, so most likely they head into conference tourney at 18-13. 

Texas and Oklahoma play each other Tuesday, and feels like loser of that game might be on the outside looking in. 

West Virginia is the one to me that I don’t get. If the “Last 10 games” factor was still utilized for selection they shouldn’t be in. Lost 6 of their last 7 games. Have Baylor left to play, so will enter conference tourney losers of 7 of 9 in all likelihood. 

Just feels to me like only two of  the four (TT, WV, Okla and TX) should get in out of that conference. Early season ranking bias seems to be benefiting WV and TT. 

[RaceToTheTop]

5 minutes ago, JerryYeagley23 said:

Interesting. Wow. That’s generous. Agreed Texas Tech is in trouble. Two games remaining for them and they’re against Kansas and Baylor, so most likely they head into conference tourney at 18-13. 

Texas and Oklahoma play each other Tuesday, and feels like loser of that game might be on the outside looking in. 

West Virginia is the one to me that I don’t get. If the “Last 10 games” factor was still utilized for selection they shouldn’t be in. Lost 6 of their last 7 games. Have Baylor left to play, so will enter conference tourney losers of 7 of 9 in all likelihood. 

Just feels to me like only two of  the four (TT, WV, Okla and TX) should get in out of that conference. Early season ranking bias seems to be benefiting WV and TT. 

IMO, there is still early season bias.  Ohio State shot up when they killed North Carolina and everyone assumed that meant something.  For the life of me I don’t see a resume much different than IU’s.

[RaceToTheTop]

39 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

I could see 5 from the Big 12. Texas has just done enough to get back on the bubble so they still have some work. Texas Tech is playing its way onto the bubble. I still think they will get 5


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I can't fathom Texas getting in.  Pom 62, Sagarin 48, Net 65, RPI 53.  Only wins of any consequence are Oklahoma and Texas Tech, both of which you say are bubble teams.  0-5 against Sagarin top 25 only 2 wins against top 50.

[JerryYeagley23]

7 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

I can't fathom Texas getting in.  Pom 62, Sagarin 48, Net 65, RPI 53.  Only wins of any consequence are Oklahoma and Texas Tech, both of which you say are bubble teams.  0-5 against Sagarin top 25 only 2 wins against top 50.

That massive win on the road against NET Goliath Purdue back in November looming large on the resume though. :)

[Uspshoosier]

I can't fathom Texas getting in.  Pom 62, Sagarin 48, Net 65, RPI 53.  Only wins of any consequence are Oklahoma and Texas Tech, both of which you say are bubble teams.  0-5 against Sagarin top 25 only 2 wins against top 50.

3 top 35 NET wins and one of those was on the road.
4-7 in Quad 1
2-4 in Quad 2
0 losses to Q3-4
Sos-41
5-5 in true road games
Only 2 wins against the projected field as of today(West Virginia and Texas Tech)

I can see why they are back on the bubble but they still have work to do



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[Uspshoosier]

That massive win on the road against NET Goliath Purdue back in November looming large on the resume though. :)

I know you are joking about it but that win was a huge win for them. Whether anyone likes the NET or not that is the NCAA metric so it’s going to be a big deal. Having a top 35 NET road win on your resume is going to stand out regardless of when the game was played


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[RaceToTheTop]

5 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

I know you are joking about it but that win was a huge win for them. Whether anyone likes the NET or not that is the NCAA metric so it’s going to be a big deal. Having a top 35 NET road win on your resume is going to stand out regardless of when the game was played


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So which is better to have:  a win at Purdue, a team not in the field, or at IU, a projected 9 seed?  That’s a big issue if it is rewarding wins for beating teams that they don’t actually feel are worthy of being in the field.

i mean, cool, Texas gets a top 35 road win at Purdue while Arkansas doesn’t get one for their win at IU.  There is something incredibly wrong with NET and the fact that they won’t even release its methodology means they know it’s jacked up.

[Uspshoosier]

So which is better to have:  a win at Purdue, a team not in the field, or at IU, a projected 9 seed?  That’s a big issue if it is rewarding wins for beating teams that they don’t actually feel are worthy of being in the field.
i mean, cool, Texas gets a top 35 road win at Purdue while Arkansas doesn’t get one for their win at IU.  There is something incredibly wrong with NET and the fact that they won’t even release its methodology means they know it’s jacked up.

Both would be Quad 1 wins


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[RaceToTheTop]

19 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Both would be Quad 1 wins


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But one is a top 35 and one is to 56....and the one to the 35 is one to a team that they would leave out of the field while the other is safely in.  There is an issue if the rating system you are using to determine value of wins has such descrepancy.

 

[Baltimore Hoosier]

Yesterday was not a good day for the Hoosiers. Big Quad 1 wins by bubble teams like Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas, and Providence (who all have better conference and road records than IU) make today’s game a huge one. I realize there are other metrics that will be looked at, but the basic eye test says that there isn’t much separating some of these borderline teams and Indiana. I don’t think IU a lock at all. Especially if they end up with a losing record in the B1G and 2-8 road record.

 

Today is must-win in my opinion.

 

 

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[Uspshoosier]

But one is a top 35 and one is to 56....and the one to the 35 is one to a team that they would leave out of the field while the other is safely in.  There is an issue if the rating system you are using to determine value of wins has such descrepancy.  

 

not sure what can be done about that. Wins against the field isn’t a set criteria for the committee (although I’m guessing it’s discussed in the rom). I use it and other bracketoligist use it when comparing teams that are close. Rpi was the same way. Oklahoma St a couple years ago swept Kansas and had some really good wins and a top 30 rpi but wasn’t a tourney team. Teams who beat them on the road got a top 30 RPI win against a non tourney team. Last year B1G teams that made the tournament got a top 50 road win at a non tourney 14-18 Penn St team.

 

At the end of the season who is to say the IU will still be safely in the field and Purdue is left out. Plenty of basketball left in this final week

 

 

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[Uspshoosier]

Of IU’s 10 conference road games

8 of the games were against Top 36 NET( 5 teams solidly in the field at a 6 seed or better, 1 projected a 7 seed, 1 that is a projected 9-11 seed, and the other one to a team in most bracketoligist first 4 out or next 4 out)

The 2 games IU got to play on the road against a team outside the NET 36 they went 2-0.

 

Not a lot of bubble teams from different conferences would of had to do that. Most of the bubble teams road wins come against teams not projected in the field or anywhere near the field. Most bubble teams are going to have road losses to teams ranked lower then NET 60. If IU falls down to the bubble with a home Minny loss I will be interested to see how the committee views their road record compared to others. Luckily for IU they have 2 top 61 neutral court wins in their back pocket that as of today has IU with 4 wins away from home

 

 

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[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

Of IU’s 10 conference road games
8 of the games were against Top 36 NET( 5 teams solidly in the field at a 6 seed or better, 1 projected a 7 seed, 1 that is a projected 9-11 seed, and the other one to a team in most bracketoligist first 4 out or next 4 out)
The 2 games IU got to play on the road against a team outside the NET 36 they went 2-0.
 
Not a lot of bubble teams from different conferences would of had to do that. Most of the bubble teams road wins come against teams not projected in the field or anywhere near the field. Most bubble teams are going to have road losses to teams ranked lower then NET 60. If IU falls down to the bubble with a home Minny loss I will be interested to see how the committee views their road record compared to others. Luckily for IU they have 2 top 61 neutral court wins in their back pocket that as of today has IU with 4 wins away from home
 
 
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May have been against Top 36 teams, but our 7 road losses, we’ve lost by an average of about 14.5 points.


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