You be the Committee

[Baltimore Hoosier]

17 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

The reason some bracketologist have IU out and behind some teams that they probably should be in front of I’m going to try and explain it to you. In a normal bubble IU chances would be around 20% instead of 70%. Bracketologist rely on numbers to make their bracket. They also rely on what the committee has done through the history of the past teams that have gotten at-large bids. For example history shows that the magic record for at-large bids is 4 games or better over .500. Usually if you are under that I don’t seriously consider that team. Only 2 times in history has the committee selected a team 4 games under .500 in conference (Florida St, Iowa St). Only 2 times in history have they taken teams with 15 losses. Those 3 things is why a lot are saying they need 2 to feel safe. 2 wins gets them to 4 games over .500. Personally I feel they get in with 1 more win with how terrible the bubble is this year but I would be sweating. Hope that helps


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Sooooooo in other words.. Indiana (really to have a shot without sweating through my suit) has to do something that has only been done 3 other times by this team in the last 80 years in order to make the tournament?

[HoosierX]

18 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

The reason some bracketologist have IU out and behind some teams that they probably should be in front of I’m going to try and explain it to you. In a normal bubble IU chances would be around 20% instead of 70%. Bracketologist rely on numbers to make their bracket. They also rely on what the committee has done through the history of the past teams that have gotten at-large bids. For example history shows that the magic record for at-large bids is 4 games or better over .500. Usually if you are under that I don’t seriously consider that team. Only 2 times in history has the committee selected a team 4 games under .500 in conference (Florida St, Iowa St). Only 2 times in history have they taken teams with 15 losses. Those 3 things is why a lot are saying they need 2 to feel safe. 2 wins gets them to 4 games over .500. Personally I feel they get in with 1 more win with how terrible the bubble is this year but I would be sweating. Hope that helps


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Fair explanation.  And my post below is in no way directed at you.

I think it’s a stupid way for them to be looking at it for two reasons:

1) The new emphasis on wins by quad

2) The fact that 68 teams now get in instead of 64

Both of these things should make bracketologists question their old rules of thumb.

[Uspshoosier]

Fair explanation.  And my post below is in no way directed at you.
I think it’s a stupid way for them to be looking at it for two reasons:
1) The new emphasis on wins by quad
2) The fact that 68 teams now get in instead of 64
Both of these things should make bracketologists question their old rules of thumb.

Not all of them do it
No reason to change their rule of thumb if they are still projecting the field at a high level and are considered the best at what they do still.
You know how some people are just set in their ways. When the committee starts moving away from the numbers that they have followed the bracketologist line of thinking will follow. We project what we think they will do. When people yell at me for a team I have in or out I always remind them this is what I think the committee will do not personally who I think should be in


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[Uspshoosier]

43 minutes ago, Baltimore Hoosier said:

Sooooooo in other words.. Indiana (really to have a shot without sweating through my suit) has to do something that has only been done 3 other times by this team in the last 80 years in order to make the tournament?

Worry about MSU on Thursday. 1 game at a time. No one really knows how close to the bubble IU actually is and if they tell you they do they are lying. We have no actual proof on how the committee uses the NET when it comes to the bubble teams since this is the first year of using the NET. I personally feel if IU beats OSU they find a way into the field but that would only be an educated guess


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[Str8Hoosiers]

I know RPI is a thing of the past and is no longer used but I heard we would currently be the lowest rated (by RPI) team to ever be an at large... is that correct? I think it said we were 81 currently. I know NET has taken the place but will the committee still see that 81? How drastically can that change if we win another game or 2?

[Uspshoosier]

I know RPI is a thing of the past and is no longer used but I heard we would currently be the lowest rated (by RPI) team to ever be an at large... is that correct? I think it said we were 81 currently. I know NET has taken the place but will the committee still see that 81? How drastically can that change if we win another game or 2?

If RPI was used IU would be the lowest ever to get in taking the place of Syracuse who got in with a rpi in the 70’s if they get in this year. In interviews in the past the committee chair has made it sound like the rpi in college basketball is done. Rpi is used in women’s basketball and all the other sports

 

 

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[Hoosier DaDa]

3 hours ago, Alford Bailey said:

How many of those were a good team beating a bad team for the third time and how many were a ninth place team beating the conference champions for the third time? Im guessing the latter was close to zero.

So you are saying there is a chance because you stated "close to zero".

[BottomLine]

St Marys just clobbered Gonzaga.  This is not a good thing for us.  Thinking that St Marys now eats up one of the bottom seeds with 22 wins and a thrashing of what was a probably #1 seed.

 

[Brass Cannon]

Gonzaga started early this year

[BottomLine]

That means that St Marys gets the automatic and Gonzaga will get in as an at large.  St Marys was below us on the First Four Out list.

[Uspshoosier]

St Marys just clobbered Gonzaga.  This is not a good thing for us.  Thinking that St Marys now eats up one of the bottom seeds with 22 wins and a thrashing of what was a probably #1 seed.
 

Yes the automatically earned them on of the bottom seeds(12 seed for me)


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[BottomLine]

1 minute ago, Brass Cannon said:

Gonzaga started early this year

Took me a second to figure that out, and then it hit.  Right you are.

[Uspshoosier]

That means that St Marys gets the automatic and Gonzaga will get in as an at large.  St Marys was below us on the First Four Out list.

Ok you saying thinking St Mary’s eats up a spot confused me. No thinking about it they stole a bid from someone


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[BottomLine]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Ok you saying thinking St Mary’s eats up a spot confused me. No thinking about it they stole a bid from someone


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That's about it.  If IU is the last one left out, remember this game because I'm not sure St Mary's would have gotten in otherwise.  On the other hand, when we win the Big 10 Tourney we may be edging out someone else.  Right now I think we are capable of beating anyone in the Big 10.  Can we take everyone down on consecutive days?  That may be the question.  It could be the only way we get in though.

[biteoftheapple]

I have been greatly disappointed by our overall performance this season. I have watched all our games, but lost interest in the overall season. I want them in the dance, but frankly the Hoosiers did minimum to earn that right. If thet are relegated to the NIT , I understand.

[Class of '66 Old Fart]

I don't know if we'll be able to end up in the Big Dance or not.  If we continue to play as we have, I really think we could surprise some teams in the first weekend.  But unless the committe absolutely and unequivocably uses analytics, our losing streak is going to be in the backs of the member's minds and could well be the difference.   We made our bed and we'll just have to lie in it regardless of what happens in the next 4 days.  Clearly, a win tomorrow against O$U is an absolute must.

[BottomLine]

Getting down to crunch time.  Murray State and St Mary's have had their ticket punched for the NCAA Tournament.  That probably leaves 14 teams fighting for the last 6 spots.  You can't enjoy the scramble without a schedule.  And, of course, there is always the possibility that some team will win one of the conference tourneys and ****** one of the spots.

 

Murray State  Won OVC tourney and is in field of 68

St Mary's      Won WCC tourney and is in field of 68

TCU            OK State (Wed)

Butler        Providence (Wed)

NC State       Virginia (Thur)

Florida       Arkansas (Thur)

Alabama        Ole Miss (Thur)

Seton Hall    Georgetown (Thur)

Indiana       Ohio State (Thur)

Ohio State    Indiana (Thur)

Creighton     Xavier (Thur)

Arizona St    Stanford/UCLA winner (Thur)

Dayton        St Louis/Richmond winner (Fri)

Temple        Wichita St/ECU (Fri)

Clemson        DONE - Lost to NC State

Furman        DONE - Lost to UNC Greensboro

[BottomLine]

Wednesday's games are through.  TCU was a winner and moves on.  Butler is back on the shelf after losing to Providence.  Thursday is going to be a big day.  14 teams still fighting for the last 6 spots.  You can't enjoy the scramble without a schedule.  And, of course, there is always the possibility that some outside team will win one of the conference tourneys and ****** one of the spots.

 

Murray State  Won OVC tourney and is in field of 68

St Mary's      Won WCC tourney and is in field of 68

TCU            Kansas State (Thur)

NC State       Virginia (Thur)

Florida       Arkansas (Thur)

Alabama        Ole Miss (Thur)

Seton Hall    Georgetown (Thur)

Indiana       Ohio State (Thur)

Ohio State    Indiana (Thur)

Creighton     Xavier (Thur)

Arizona St    Stanford/UCLA winner (Thur)

Dayton        St Louis/Richmond winner (Fri)

Temple        Wichita St/ECU (Fri)

Clemson        DONE - Lost to NC State

Furman        DONE - Lost to UNC Greensboro

Butler        Done - Lost to Providence

[RaceToTheTop]

I mentioned this in another thread, but the fact that the NCAA doesn't even calculate RPI any longer represents the idea that they knew it had outlived its usefulness and they had stopped looking at it in meeting rooms.

Consider this:  IU's strength of schedule is 50th by RPI standards.  KenPom has it at 11.  Sagarin has it at 13.  Simply put, RPI did a horrendous job of measuring SOS, which is the main reason its gone.

I also mentioned this....let's say IU had a couple more shots go in -- say they had beaten Purdue and Iowa once.  They would be 19-12 with wins over Michigan St (x2), Wisconsin, Louisville, Marquette, Purdue, and Iowa.  And you know what their RPI would be?  52......one spot behind Yale.  Sorry, but RPI ratings are dead and there is a reason they are.

[Southside]

On 3/12/2019 at 11:11 PM, BottomLine said:

That means that St Marys gets the automatic and Gonzaga will get in as an at large.  St Marys was below us on the First Four Out list.

One could argue St Marys would have gotten in regardless. Their NET was comfortably in the 30s (34th), and losing to the Zags would not have dropped them much, if at all.  I know that the NET is not the end all, but neither are the bubble reports. Actually, we don't really know how the NET will be prioritized, but the NCAA, IMO, would look pretty silly leaving a team out in the top 35 of their own new shiny toy/tool.