College Bball Thread

[Rico 3,075]

10 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Still a mystery team for me.   Best win of the year is @Maryland.   Maryland is a projected 7-9 seed team.   Other tournament quality teams they played Baylor, Illinois, Arizona and @USC (a bubble team) they lost.    Only other wins against tournament quality teams is Kentucky (neutral) and home USC.   I think they are a good team but the resume really doesn’t show they should be top 4.   They play Arizona st and Arizona before the conference tourney.   PAC 12 stinks so not many opportunities for big wins 

Well, I just put them on upset alert.  Down 1 to the Buffs.

[Rico 3,075]

Rare Tyger Campbell baby pic:

 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,694]

Indiana, Northwestern, Maryland and Michigan now 11-7 in conference play. 

What does Michigan have to do? I'm using beat us and win their other game to get in. 

[Uspshoosier 45,965]

5 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Indiana, Northwestern, Maryland and Michigan now 11-7 in conference play. 

What does Michigan have to do? I'm using beat us and win their other game to get in. 

Go back in time and not lose to Central Michigan at home.  Lol.    Split these 2 road games and make a little run in the tourney but no guarantees.     3-10 in Q1 games.  Should be interesting to see how they do this next week.  Hunters shot basically kept them alive 

[RaceToTheTop 26,074]

Blind resume (USPS, I know you know who the two teams are)  -- which team do you think has a better NET ranking?

Team A:

Overall record 17-11

Q1:  5-6,    Q2:  3-2    Q3:  2-3   Q4:  7-0

NET SOS:  45

 

Team B

Overall record 17-11

Q1:  3-7    Q2:  4-4   Q3:  5-0   Q4:  5-0

NET SOS:  32

[RaceToTheTop 26,074]

My Top 25 WAR won't change by any games remaining tonight, so going to go ahead and post it.  Looking for to LCS and Joe's lists as there were a lot of upsets and big games this week.

1. Kansas 23-5, WAR +9.36
2. Alabama 24-5, +7.75
3. Purdue 24-5, +7.32
4. UCLA 25-4, +7.31
5. Houston 27-2, +6.95
6. Texas 22-7, +6.50
7. Kansas St 22-6, +6.37
8. Gonzaga 24-5, +6.28
9. Baylor 21-8, +6.07
10. Marquette 23-6, +5.87
11. Arizona 24-5, +5.74
12. San Diego St 22-5, +5.66
13. Connecticutt 22-7, +5.30
14. Indiana 20-9, +4.34
15. Xavier 21-8, +4.29
16. St. Mary's 23-7, +4.10
17. Miami (F) 23-6, +4.08
18. Virginia 21-6, +3.92
19. Memphis 22-7, +3.49
20. Nevada 21-7, +3.45
21. Missouri 21-8, +3.35
22. Tennessee 21-8, +3.33
23. USC 21-8, +3.26
24. Kentucky 20-9, +3.20
25. Providence 22-8, +3.18

Dropped out of top 25:  Florida Atlantic, Northwestern, Iowa State, Creighton.

Near the top 25:  TCU 19-10 +3.08, Florida Atlantic 22-3 +2.95, Northwestern 20-9 +2.92, Michigan St 17-11 +2.81, Duke 21-8 +2.74.

 

[Stuhoo 81,247]

Oh Rutger.

7 points in about 11 minutes and down 23-7 at Penn State.

 

[Uspshoosier 45,965]

14 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Blind resume (USPS, I know you know who the two teams are)  -- which team do you think has a better NET ranking?

Team A:

Overall record 17-11

Q1:  5-6,    Q2:  3-2    Q3:  2-3   Q4:  7-0

NET SOS:  45

 

Team B

Overall record 17-11

Q1:  3-7    Q2:  4-4   Q3:  5-0   Q4:  5-0

NET SOS:  32

   The win on the road against a top 5 NET team is the difference maker between the 2. 

[RaceToTheTop 26,074]

11 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

   The win on the road against a top 5 NET team is the difference maker between the 2. 

I know.  Just my opinion that one win isn't worth three quad three losses.  Higher upside on Team A, but pretty low floor.

Anyway, team B going to have a chance stake their claim by winning tonight and there is a chance they could meet once more in the BTT in the 8/9 game.

For those that don't know, A is Rutgers, B is Penn State.

[Demo 20,302]

15 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Oh Rutger.

7 points in about 11 minutes and down 23-7 at Penn State.

 

Wow, do they look lost on offense. I can’t figure out what they’re trying to get done.

[reconmkd 4,409]

BTN just showed the conference standing with us I basically being in 5th place and Michigan at 3. WTF BTN?

[hoosiersoxfan 230]

1 minute ago, reconmkd said:

BTN just showed the conference standing with us I basically being in 5th place and Michigan at 3. WTF BTN?

IU is in 5th right now based on tie breakers. They are 1-3 combined against the other teams tied for 2nd place currently. 

[Uspshoosier 45,965]

5 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I know.  Just my opinion that one win isn't worth three quad three losses.  Higher upside on Team A, but pretty low floor.

KenPom has team A at 36 and Team B at 49 so it’s not just the NET that has Team A with the better number.    

[RaceToTheTop 26,074]

Separately, how is it possible that Kansas could be FIFTH in net?  The Jayhawks have more quad 1 wins than anyone in the in the top nine have games.

Quad 1:  15-5    2:  3-0    3:  3-0     4:  3-0

[LIHoosier 26,357]

5 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Separately, how is it possible that Kansas could be FIFTH in net?  The Jayhawks have more quad 1 wins than anyone in the in the top nine have games.

Quad 1:  15-5    2:  3-0    3:  3-0     4:  3-0

NET (and predictive metrics in general) care more about beating nobodies by 30-40 than playing and winning a bunch of tight games against other good teams.

[RaceToTheTop 26,074]

12 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

KenPom has team A at 36 and Team B at 49 so it’s not just the NET that has Team A with the better number.    

I know, although Pom is a completely predictive tool and not reflective.  While at this moment I would say that Rutger isn't as good as Penn State, (Rutger is getting woodshedded right now) I understand the predictive measures would say they were due to pointspread in games.

From a purely 'did you win?' standpoint, though, I don't.  And I'm not so much advocating for Penn State as understanding I am trying to understand why.  My numbers -- really just for my own use and not meant to be predictive of what the committee will say -- has Penn State as the 52nd best team and Rutger at 56th based solely on wins/losses/schedule. 

Funny thing is that the results of tonight's game:

A Penn State win moves them from 52 to 48 and drops Rutger from 56 to 58.  48 would be list team in, 58 would be 7th team out (three of the ten spots between 48 and 58 are auto bids).

A Rutger win moves Rutger from 56 to 48 and drops Penn State from 52 to 58.  So in essence, I have the winner of the game as barely in, the loser SOL.

[Uspshoosier 45,965]

3 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I know, although Pom is a completely predictive tool and not reflective.  While at this moment I would say that Rutger isn't as good as Penn State, (Rutger is getting woodshedded right now) I understand the predictive measures would say they were due to pointspread in games.

From a purely 'did you win?' standpoint, though, I don't.  And I'm not so much advocating for Penn State as understanding I am trying to understand why.  My numbers -- really just for my own use and not meant to be predictive of what the committee will say -- has Penn State as the 52nd best team and Rutger at 56th based solely on wins/losses/schedule. 

Funny thing is that the results of tonight's game:

A Penn State win moves them from 52 to 48 and drops Rutger from 56 to 58.  48 would be list team in, 58 would be 7th team out (three of the ten spots between 48 and 58 are auto bids).

A Rutger win moves Rutger from 56 to 48 and drops Penn State from 52 to 58.  So in essence, I have the winner of the game as barely in, the loser SOL.

Results based KPI has Rutgers at 45 and Penn st 52 so closer together but still has Rutgers with the better number 

[Uspshoosier 45,965]

WCC got to the point in the tiebreakers where the NET determined the number 1 seed.   Whichever team had the highest NET got the 1 seed.    St Marys (7) and the Zags(9).   St Mary’s got the 1 seed 

[RaceToTheTop 26,074]

8 minutes ago, LIHoosier said:

NET (and predictive metrics in general) care more about beating nobodies by 30-40 than playing and winning a bunch of tight games against other good teams.

NET, though, isn't solely predictive.  It's supposed to be a combo of reflective and predictive.

[LIHoosier 26,357]

3 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

NET, though, isn't solely predictive.  It's supposed to be a combo of reflective and predictive.

It does weigh road wins heavily (good), but it seems for example St. Mary's gets more credit for winning at Pacific or San Diego by 15 than Kansas does winning at Texas or Baylor by 2.