Crazy Kenpom Stat - Title Winners

[HoosierX]

I was looking back to see how highly Duke was rated back in 2002, when we beat them (#1 in Kenpom including #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency). And then I started flipping through the years. Only three times since 2002 (inclusive of 2002) has the NCAA champion finished outside the Kenpom top 3:

2003 - Syracuse (finished #8)  2011 -  Connecticut (finished #10)  2014 - Connecticut (finished #15)

If Kenpom includes the postseason games, then there is going to be a bit of a natural bias upward for teams that do well, but that's still pretty crazy. Just goes to show that the chances of winning a title if you're not an elite team is very low.

 

[OKHOOSIER]

I would be really interested in the final adjusted defensive and offensive efficiency of each winner. I would guess most finish with a Top-20 Defense and Offense or there abouts. I would guess outliers with high offensive ratings and low defensive ratings end up getting bounced before or in the final four (Alabama last year). I wonder if UVAs title run would be the inverse since their offense could not have finished too high.  

[TheWatShot]

2 minutes ago, OKHOOSIER said:

I would be really interested in the final adjusted defensive and offensive efficiency of each winner. I would guess most finish with a Top-20 Defense and Offense or there abouts. I would guess outliers with high offensive ratings and low defensive ratings end up getting bounced before or in the final four (Alabama last year). I wonder if UVAs title run would be the inverse since their offense could not have finished too high.  

Virginia was #1 overall with the #2 offense and #5 defense. You have to remember it's points per possession, not points per game. 

[OKHOOSIER]

11 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Virginia was #1 overall with the #2 offense and #5 defense. You have to remember it's points per possession, not points per game. 

Ahh makes sense. I just remember watching them thinking no way this team scores enough to avenge the 16 loss. 

[RaceToTheTop]

I believe that it's almost a lock every year that a team that wins the national title enters the tournament ranked in the top 20 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency.

If that holds true, this year the only contenders right now would be Houston, Auburn, Duke, Florida, Iowa State, and Michigan State.

[HinnyHoosier]

3 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I believe that it's almost a lock every year that a team that wins the national title enters the tournament ranked in the top 20 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency.

If that holds true, this year the only contenders right now would be Houston, Auburn, Duke, Florida, Iowa State, and Michigan State.

Anyone but East Lansing. Even Duke.

[Brass Cannon]

12 hours ago, HoosierX said:

I was looking back to see how highly Duke was rated back in 2002, when we beat them (#1 in Kenpom including #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency). And then I started flipping through the years. Only three times since 2002 (inclusive of 2002) has the NCAA champion finished outside the Kenpom top 3:

2003 - Syracuse (finished #8)  2011 -  Connecticut (finished #10)  2014 - Connecticut (finished #15)

If Kenpom includes the postseason games, then there is going to be a bit of a natural bias upward for teams that do well, but that's still pretty crazy. Just goes to show that the chances of winning a title if you're not an elite team is very low.

 

I once looked back at where teams were ranked before the tourney and there was a much bigger spread.  When 6 straight games on a neutral court against a tourney team had a natural way of jumping you up a lot 

[cybergates]

13 hours ago, HoosierX said:

I was looking back to see how highly Duke was rated back in 2002, when we beat them (#1 in Kenpom including #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency). And then I started flipping through the years. Only three times since 2002 (inclusive of 2002) has the NCAA champion finished outside the Kenpom top 3:

2003 - Syracuse (finished #8)  2011 -  Connecticut (finished #10)  2014 - Connecticut (finished #15)

If Kenpom includes the postseason games, then there is going to be a bit of a natural bias upward for teams that do well, but that's still pretty crazy. Just goes to show that the chances of winning a title if you're not an elite team is very low.

 

 

26 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

I once looked back at where teams were ranked before the tourney and there was a much bigger spread.  When 6 straight games on a neutral court against a tourney team had a natural way of jumping you up a lot 

If you subscribe to Kenpom, you can get pre-tourney data. I no longer do so I can't access it.

[HoosierX]

48 minutes ago, cybergates said:

 

If you subscribe to Kenpom, you can get pre-tourney data. I no longer do so I can't access it.

That would be interesting, maybe I'll do it temporarily just for this. I'd bet there isn't more than one instance of a team moving from outside the top 10 into the top 3. 

[cybergates]

53 minutes ago, HoosierX said:

That would be interesting, maybe I'll do it temporarily just for this. I'd bet there isn't more than one instance of a team moving from outside the top 10 into the top 3. 

It was $20 for a year when I did it a few years ago. Not sure what it is now or if he provides a free trial.

[Brass Cannon]

When I did the research I just did the way back machine. 
 Much cheaper

[str8baller]

5 hours ago, cybergates said:

 

If you subscribe to Kenpom, you can get pre-tourney data. I no longer do so I can't access it.

Yea, I had always heard it was top 25 in both categories. There’s and outlier here and there, but it is a dang good indicator if there ever was one.