2024/25 Roster Predictions

[94Bulldog 747]

Just got to thinking, what does everyone think the odds are of who returns.  I don’t think anyone is a 100% guarantee to return.
 

X and Walker graduate.

Cupps 90%
Malik 75%
McNeely 75%
Newton 75%
Sparks 70%
Galloway 60%
Mgbako 30%
Ware 25% 
Leal 10%

Gunn 0%
Banks 0%

Looks like portal season will be the most exciting part of our year again.  

 

 

[realTomCrean 2,766]

**Given Coach Woodson is still here**

Best Case: Cupps, Reneau, Mcneely, Mgbako, Queen, Newton, Gallo, Leal, Sparks (5 G's, 4 F's) 4 open spots

Worst Case: Cupps, Mcneely, Reneau, Newton, Gallo, Leal, Sparks

[Home Jersey 16,091]

Since speculation at this point is more fun than the games... IMO...

Cupps: 99%
Sparks: 99%
Gallo: 99%
Malik: 85%
Newton: 75%
McNeeley: 50%
Leal: 50%
Mgbako: 33%
Ware, Gunn, Banks: 0%

If everyone I listed 50% or over returns, that'd be 6 spots to fill with a lot of roster holes. Interesting recruiting cycle lays ahead

[Hornsby 3,870]

Since speculation at this point is more fun than the games... IMO...

Cupps: 99%
Sparks: 99%
Gallo: 99%
Malik: 85%
Newton: 75%
McNeeley: 50%
Leal: 50%
Mgbako: 33%
Ware, Gunn, Banks: 0%

If everyone I listed 50% or over returns, that'd be 6 spots to fill with a lot of roster holes. Interesting recruiting cycle lays ahead

Ware is gone. Mm likely gone. Gunn and banks transfer. Basically build a team in the portal. Yikes.

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[Home Jersey 16,091]

3 minutes ago, Hornsby said:

Ware is gone. Mm likely gone. Gunn and banks transfer. Basically build a team in the portal. Yikes.

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If we can keep McNeeley committed, that group would have him and Reneau as starters. The rest should be rotation or bench players. Outlook is bleak right now. 

[94Bulldog 747]

22 minutes ago, Home Jersey said:

Since speculation at this point is more fun than the games... IMO...

Cupps: 99%
Sparks: 99%
Gallo: 99%
Malik: 85%
Newton: 75%
McNeeley: 50%
Leal: 50%
Mgbako: 33%
Ware, Gunn, Banks: 0%

If everyone I listed 50% or over returns, that'd be 6 spots to fill with a lot of roster holes. Interesting recruiting cycle lays ahead

I find it interesting you think Trey is almost a sure return.  I’ve been a huge fan of his since I saw him play as a. Sophomore in high school, but I just feel like maybe it’s time for him to move on.  For IU to be 65% of what we want them to be he has to be recruited over.  I’m not sure he’d stay for that.  

[Home Jersey 16,091]

16 minutes ago, 94Bulldog said:

I find it interesting you think Trey is almost a sure return.  I’ve been a huge fan of his since I saw him play as a. Sophomore in high school, but I just feel like maybe it’s time for him to move on.  For IU to be 65% of what we want them to be he has to be recruited over.  I’m not sure he’d stay for that.  

I totally agree for IU to be what we want them to be, he should be 6th or 7th man. It would actually be interesting to see what he could do elsewhere, I just think it makes too much sense on paper for him to come back... if for nothing other than continuity purposes/being a "known quantity" on a roster that will look very different next year. 

[Hornsby 3,870]

I totally agree for IU to be what we want them to be, he should be 6th or 7th man. It would actually be interesting to see what he could do elsewhere, I just think it makes too much sense on paper for him to come back... if for nothing other than continuity purposes/being a "known quantity" on a roster that will look very different next year. 

To get those types of guards in the portal Woodson will have to beat out the likes of Kansas, Auburn, Arkansas, etc. to get them. All the big boys will be on the top guards. What exactly is his selling point they can get NIL at any of those schools.

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[Home Jersey 16,091]

7 minutes ago, Hornsby said:

To get those types of guards in the portal Woodson will have to beat out the likes of Kansas, Auburn, Arkansas, etc. to get them. All the big boys will be on the top guards. What exactly is his selling point they can get NIL at any of those schools.

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Idk why you're asking me lol... I'm not very optimistic these days!

[Hornsby 3,870]

Idk why you're asking me lol... I'm not very optimistic these days!

Just a general question for everyone. He doesn't really have anything to sell the really good guards. The other schools can match the nil.

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[94Bulldog 747]

Playing devil’s advocate a bit.  I would be selling the development of JHS, and the playing time available.  Unlike last year where there was some perception of no one was going to start over X and Trey, between X’s graduation and Trey’s play, no one looking at coming in should be concerned about lack of PT.

[HoosierHoopster 8,325]

2 hours ago, Hornsby said:

Just a general question for everyone. He doesn't really have anything to sell the really good guards. The other schools can match the nil.

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He just put JHS in the first round. Several here regularly posted early on that JHS wasn't ready and "clearly" wasn't on an NBA level. Then around the mid-way point or so and with X out he became one of our 2 primary options with TJD, scored on a high level, and was just as "clearly" an NBA draft pick. CMW can recruit on having helped develop JHS into a first rounder. Whether he does that and goes all in for guards / wings in the portal remains to be seen, but can't just ignore JHS.

[HoosierHoopster 8,325]

50 minutes ago, 94Bulldog said:

Playing devil’s advocate a bit.  I would be selling the development of JHS, and the playing time available.  Unlike last year where there was some perception of no one was going to start over X and Trey, between X’s graduation and Trey’s play, no one looking at coming in should be concerned about lack of PT.

Just saw this and posted similarly. JHS is strong selling point - how well the staff use that remains to be seen.

[Muskie for three 307]

Boogie was buying the JHS hard sell. Till he wasn't . 

[Adillac 1,009]

I don't think Woodson has much to sell other than NIL. He clearly isn't better at sending guys to the NBA than anyone else. He didn't have a choice but to play JHS and rely on him last year. JHS got himself into the league, with a little help from TJD in those pick n rolls. 

If you are an elite guard, why pick Woodson over Calipari or Pearl or a dozen other programs? No reason to gamble on Woodson and IU if you can go play at Tennessee or Auburn or UK or UNC or almost anywhere else and probably make the NCAA tourney and get NIL. 

[Hornsby 3,870]

He just put JHS in the first round. Several here regularly posted early on that JHS wasn't ready and "clearly" wasn't on an NBA level. Then around the mid-way point or so and with X out he became one of our 2 primary options with TJD, scored on a high level, and was just as "clearly" an NBA draft pick. CMW can recruit on having helped develop JHS into a first rounder. Whether he does that and goes all in for guards / wings in the portal remains to be seen, but can't just ignore JHS.

I suppose but the competition for the top guys will be fierce and he will need top guys. If you want a guy like Caleb love you will have to beat out an arizona. A guy like Dalton k you'll have to beat out all the big boys. The program's he will have to beat out are sending guys to the nba as well. 

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[Adillac 1,009]

IU now doesn't look like it is positioning itself to be a tourney team next year. It's possible but you know pretty well that a dozen other established programs are going dancing next year. Would you rather probably go dancing and be on TV and get all that exposure or would you rather take a chance and go to IU. 

[Home Jersey 16,091]

It's not very hard to see a worst case scenario where we only return Cupps, Sparks, Gallo, and Newton. Likely Malik too (I hope...) but that would be 8-9 spots to fill. 6 is still a lot. During the offseason, there was a lot of debate around if it's problematic to rely so heavily on the spring/portal. I tend to think not, if you're using it to plug a hole you have... But to build a cohesive roster that plays together as a unit with chemistry, I am concerned to say the least... I don't doubt it's technically possible you could find an entire team's worth of guys who are able to play together well... but I do think you're leaving an EXTREMELY narrow window of opportunity open for yourself, and have virtually no chance of being able to do that on a consistent basis. Assuming we have so much turnover that there are 6-9 open spots, there is absolutely zero way that Mike Woodson should be responsible for building next year's roster. 

[JF87 2,149]

9 minutes ago, Home Jersey said:

It's not very hard to see a worst case scenario where we only return Cupps, Sparks, Gallo, and Newton. Likely Malik too (I hope...) but that would be 8-9 spots to fill. 6 is still a lot. During the offseason, there was a lot of debate around if it's problematic to rely so heavily on the spring/portal. I tend to think not, if you're using it to plug a hole you have... But to build a cohesive roster that plays together as a unit with chemistry, I am concerned to say the least... I don't doubt it's technically possible you could find an entire team's worth of guys who are able to play together well... but I do think you're leaving an EXTREMELY narrow window of opportunity open for yourself, and have virtually no chance of being able to do that on a consistent basis. Assuming we have so much turnover that there are 6-9 open spots, there is absolutely zero way that Mike Woodson should be responsible for building next year's roster. 

I agree completely.  If an entire rebuild is necessary, no reason to have a coach with at the most 2 years left do it.  Why would a freshman come to IU if you know the coach is 1-2 years away from retirement?  Cut ties with Woodson now and let a younger and better coach do the rebuild.  We need to start building a program, not just a team for next year.  

[HoosierHoopster 8,325]

1 hour ago, Hornsby said:

I suppose but the competition for the top guys will be fierce and he will need top guys. If you want a guy like Caleb love you will have to beat out an arizona. A guy like Dalton k you'll have to beat out all the big boys. The program's he will have to beat out are sending guys to the nba as well. 

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I was just responding to your post that "He doesn't really have anything to sell the really good guards." He does -- but yes, to land the top guards you always have to beat out the comp. He did so with JHS, he/staff developed a good relationship with that program -- but have to carry that forward and recruit and land top flight guards.