They “Retired” Coach Woodson Thread

[Hoosierfan2017 23,453]

9 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

Again, 38% on low volume lol. Galloway, Cupps, Xavier Johnson, and Leal are only taking 3 pointers with their feet set and nobody guarding them. That was the core of our back court last season. Mgbako was the one guy on the roster last year who could consistently get off a 3 point shot on the move or off the bounce. It isn't hard to understand that personnel dictates strategy. 

What are you talking about? Neither Cupps nor Mgbako were even on the team in 2022, and Anthony Leal played 24 minutes all season. If you as a team shoot 38% from 3 then you have enough shooting ability on your team to take more 3s. There was no reason why Miller Kopp shouldn’t have been taking 6-7 3s a game in 2022. 

We have three years of evidence of Mike Woodson not emphasizing the 3 ball but we’re supposed to believe he’s suddenly going to change and IU will be firing away because ‘just trust me bro.’ Like cmon. 

[Hornsby 3,221]

I'll take him over Tucker any day of the week. He's a senior who has played in big games. Also he'll play for Mgbako when he is in foul trouble for guarding someone quicker

True but I thought tucker came here to start or play heavy minutes. Kind of surprised Goode would want such a small role he could start at lots of programs

 

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[Chris007 55,708]

Just now, Hornsby said:

True but I thought tucker came here to start or play heavy minutes.

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When he came here he might have thought or been told that but there is no way he's getting that anymore. Someone said his dad has been telling people he needed two years of college. Either way he's going to be paid nicely

[iu eyedoc 3,404]

12 hours ago, AH1971 said:

I’ll bet anything Reneau’s production stagnates if not dips with a better back court. He’s going to be playing out more on the perimeter anyway so I’m not worried about force him every possession, just more paranoia. 
 

 

56 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

My caveat for having a top 15 offense is Rice and Carlyle shooting bare minimum 35% from 3 on volume. That also includes Mgbako duplicating his conference stats from last season. Throw in Ballo and Reneau who are almost automatic at the rim and that's a top 15 KenPom effcieint offense. When you have 3 guys playing the bulk of the minutes shooting 35%+ from 3 on volume you're going to have an efficient offense. Can't explain it any more clearly than that. 

So is Reneau going to stagnate on the perimeter or is he going to be Mr Automatic at the rim? Your contradictions confuse me

46 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

7.5-8.5 makes on 22-25 attempts. 

Hell, If IU had made 8 3's on their 15.5 shot attempts  per game last season, shooting an NCAA record 51% from 3, adding 9 pts per 100 possessions their ORtg would still only have been 43rd and their kenpom would have 20th.

How do you not understand any volume of 35% 3pt shooting is not going to improve the offensive efficiency rating, if anything it will become even worse and the defense will suffer from easy run out buckets.

 

[AH1971 2,105]

19 minutes ago, iu eyedoc said:

 

So is Reneau going to stagnate on the perimeter or is he going to be Mr Automatic at the rim? Your contradictions confuse me

Hell, If IU had made 8 3's on their 15.5 shot attempts  per game last season, shooting an NCAA record 51% from 3, adding 9 pts per 100 possessions their ORtg would still only have been 43rd and their kenpom would have 20th.

How do you not understand any volume of 35% 3pt shooting is not going to improve the offensive efficiency rating, if anything it will become even worse and the defense will suffer from easy run out buckets.

 

More makes on larger volume=more points per possession. 

Turnovers and tempo also factor into efficiency. 

[AH1971 2,105]

35 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

What are you talking about? Neither Cupps nor Mgbako were even on the team in 2022, and Anthony Leal played 24 minutes all season. If you as a team shoot 38% from 3 then you have enough shooting ability on your team to take more 3s. There was no reason why Miller Kopp shouldn’t have been taking 6-7 3s a game in 2022. 

We have three years of evidence of Mike Woodson not emphasizing the 3 ball but we’re supposed to believe he’s suddenly going to change and IU will be firing away because ‘just trust me bro.’ Like cmon. 

Sorry thought you were talking about last year. Point still remains as a large carry over from this years team played on the 2022 team. Galloway, Johnson, and Kopp etc aren't dynamic shooters. They're catch and shoot, their efficiency goes down the drain off the move or off the bounce. They can't create their own shot. 

[iu eyedoc 3,404]

Just now, AH1971 said:

More makes on more volume=more points per possession. 

No, it literally doesn't and when you factor in the 50% lower rebound chance on 3 pointers it factually decreases the PPP.

[iu eyedoc 3,404]

5 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

Sorry thought you were talking about last year. Point still remains as a large carry over from this years team played on the 2022 team. Galloway, Johnson, and Kopp etc aren't dynamic shooters. They're catch and shoot, their efficiency goes down the drain off the move or off the bounce. They can't create their own shot. 

Is it a good thing for a 27.5% 3 point shooter to find his shot off the bounce?

[AH1971 2,105]

11 minutes ago, iu eyedoc said:

No, it literally doesn't and when you factor in the 50% lower rebound chance on 3 pointers it factually decreases the PPP.

UConn finished #1 in KenPom offensive efficiency this last year with their top 3 volume shooters per game numbers looking like this:

Cam Spencer: 2.5/5.6 44%

Tristen Newton: 1.8/5.5 32%

Alex Karaban: 2.1/5.5 38%

collectively: 6.4/16.6 38.5%

 

It's not far off from MY baseline projections of our expected volume 3 point shooters:

Mgbako: 2.5/6 40%

Carlyle: 2/5.5 36%

Rice: 1.5/5 35%

collectively 6/16.5 36%

[str8baller 6,525]

1 hour ago, Feathery said:

We can agree to disagree. His system gets players open shots. It’s the PLAYERS passing them up.

I always love the blame the players phase of a failed coach’s tenure.  
 

Can you extrapolate on this further?

Kopp averaged more attempted at NW than IU? Why did he suddenly start “passing them up?”  
 

Xavier Johnson averaged more 3s attempted at Pitt than Indiana. Why did he start “passing them up” at IU?  
 

Is it the uniform? Assembly Hall? Don Fisher? Tell me please…what causes IU players to pass up 3’s? 

[AH1971 2,105]

9 minutes ago, iu eyedoc said:

Is it a good thing for a 27.5% 3 point shooter to find his shot off the bounce?

If you are inferring Rice, that's fine if you want to operate on the assumption that his shooting numbers aren't going to improve at all. 

I'm not however. Have seen enough tape to know that his shot is pure and shot at a very successful clip for a first year player for the first 80% of the season before a massive 6-7 game slump that can be explained by a multitude of reasons. 

[AH1971 2,105]

3 minutes ago, str8baller said:

I always love the blame the players phase of a failed coach’s tenure.  
 

Can you extrapolate on this further?

Kopp averaged more attempted at NW than IU? Why did he suddenly start “passing them up?”  
 

Xavier Johnson averaged more 3s attempted at Pitt than Indiana. Why did he start “passing them up” at IU?  
 

Is it the uniform? Assembly Hall? Don Fisher? Tell me please…what causes IU players to pass up 3’s? 

Miller Kopp's per 40 min attempts were very comparable at both schools with the exception of his sophomore year in a season where Northwestern went 8-23. 

Xavier Johnson attempted more 3's at Pitt on teams that went 14-19, 16-17, and 10-12. It's almost as if Xavier Johnson taking more 3 pointers is a detriment to a teams success??? You won't find many Pitt fans who were said to see him go. 

[Golfman25 6,295]

1 hour ago, Feathery said:

Its 3pt ability over system. The players last year passed up a lot of 3’s per game. It wasn’t bc the coaches said don’t shoot it. It was the players passing them up on their own bc they were not comfortable shooting them. 

CJ Gunn says, Hold my Beer.  :)  

[iu eyedoc 3,404]

10 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

UConn finished #1 in KenPom offensive efficiency this last year with their top 3 volume shooters per game numbers looking like this:

Cam Spencer: 2.5/5.6 44%

Tristen Newton: 1.8/5.5 32%

Alex Karaban: 2.1/5.5 38%

collectively: 6.4/16.6 38.5%

 

It's not far off from MY baseline projections of our expected volume 3 point shooters:

Mgbako: 2.5/6 40%

Carlyle: 2/5.5 36%

Rice: 1.5/5 35%

collectively 6/16.5 36%

Great, so if IU can also make huge leaps  to offensive rebound, protect the ball, provide assists and shoot ft like UConn I think you are on to something.

 

Totally plausible.

[iu eyedoc 3,404]

9 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

If you are inferring Rice, that's fine if you want to operate on the assumption that his shooting numbers aren't going to improve at all. 

I'm not however. Have seen enough tape to know that his shot is pure and shot at a very successful clip for a first year player for the first 80% of the season before a massive 6-7 game slump that can be explained by a multitude of reasons. 

No you are assuming every single player takes huge leaps in efficiency and then your math still doesn't add up, so then you pretend math is subjective.

[Golfman25 6,295]

1 hour ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

What are you talking about? Neither Cupps nor Mgbako were even on the team in 2022, and Anthony Leal played 24 minutes all season. If you as a team shoot 38% from 3 then you have enough shooting ability on your team to take more 3s. There was no reason why Miller Kopp shouldn’t have been taking 6-7 3s a game in 2022. 

We have three years of evidence of Mike Woodson not emphasizing the 3 ball but we’re supposed to believe he’s suddenly going to change and IU will be firing away because ‘just trust me bro.’ Like cmon. 

Miller Kopp was the stand in the corner and watch position.  Maybe shoot if they got the ball to you.  Leal played the same position this year.  Nothing is going to change until we find that hump.  

[IU Prof 1,575]

Last year, per Bart Torvik, the offensive ratings for IU's three primary guards were:

Galloway - 102.2

XJ - 93.6

Cupps - 85.5

Meanwhile, the new additions were:

Rice - 104.8

Carlyle - 91.7

So yes, IU does have some upgrades coming in. And yes, those latter numbers are likely to improve a bit as both players enter year 2.

But I also think that some are overrating the extent of the talent upgrade. Not to mention the fact that they will both be playing in a new system that it is reasonable to fear may not suit their respective skill sets as well.

[Golfman25 6,295]

50 minutes ago, iu eyedoc said:

 

So is Reneau going to stagnate on the perimeter or is he going to be Mr Automatic at the rim? Your contradictions confuse me

Hell, If IU had made 8 3's on their 15.5 shot attempts  per game last season, shooting an NCAA record 51% from 3, adding 9 pts per 100 possessions their ORtg would still only have been 43rd and their kenpom would have 20th.

How do you not understand any volume of 35% 3pt shooting is not going to improve the offensive efficiency rating, if anything it will become even worse and the defense will suffer from easy run out buckets.

 

Didn't Reneau outside shots basically come from transition?  Half court offense he was on the block.  Later in the year, they pulled Ware out a little bit to open things up.  Not sure we'll see that this year.  Maybe?  

[AH1971 2,105]

10 minutes ago, iu eyedoc said:

Great, so if IU can also make huge leaps  to offensive rebound, protect the ball, provide assists and shoot ft like UConn I think you are on to something.

 

Totally plausible.

Projections for Mgbako and Carlyle aren't anything out of the ordinary for an expected sophomore jump based on last years numbers. 

Neither are Rice's either once you stop box score watching. 

[iu eyedoc 3,404]

5 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

Didn't Reneau outside shots basically come from transition?  Half court offense he was on the block.  Later in the year, they pulled Ware out a little bit to open things up.  Not sure we'll see that this year.  Maybe?  

Yeah, don't think anyone is coming out to guard Ballo 15 ft from the basket