Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier 45,528]

1 minute ago, Uspshoosier said:

Indiana St finished 29th in the NET.  In the 6 years of NET no team has ever been left out with a NET in the 20s.   Probably going to happen today but holding out hope they put them in 

Michigan St and Colorado  also in the 20s and both a squarely on the bubble.  Sparty might be in more trouble than originally thought.  So is Northwestern.  I was shocked after looking at it closer.  Bottom of bubble is a crap shoot 

[RaceToTheTop 25,288]

So many bids stolen that the bracketmatrix has the first four games all being 10 seeds.  Matrix as of this morning has:

last four byes:  Northwestern, TCU, Florida Atlantic, Mississippi State

last four in:  Colorado, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

first four out: St. John's, Virginia, Seton Hall, Indiana State.

St.John's as a first four out is still in 74 of the 106 brackets;  Virginia is in 46.

 

[AZ Hoosier 6,803]

Lopes are in. They won the WAC tournament last night over UT-Arlington to punch their ticket. GCU is 29-4 this year, and also won the WAC regular season title.

The Lopes jumped to D1 in 2013, and Bryce Drew was hired in 2020 to replace former Phoenix Sun Dan Majerle as head coach. In Drew's 4 years here, he's led the Lopes to the NCAA tournament 3 times.

[Uspshoosier 45,528]

1 minute ago, AZ Hoosier said:

Lopes are in. They won the WAC tournament last night over UT-Arlington to punch their ticket. GCU is 29-4 this year, and also won the WAC regular season title.

The Lopes jumped to D1 in 2013, and Bryce Drew was hired in 2020 to replace former Phoenix Sun Dan Majerle as head coach. In Drew's 4 years here, he's led the Lopes to the NCAA tournament 3 times.

They have benefited from conference realignment. WAC isn’t as strong and New Mexico St leaving for conference USA left the door open for a program to take advantage and they have definitely done that.   

[RaceToTheTop 25,288]

My bracket (past history says it in no way will be as accurate as USPS's)

1. U Conn, Purdue, Houston, North Carolina
2. Iowa State, Marquette, Arizona, Tennessee
3. Auburn, Illinois, Baylor, Creighton
4. Kansas, Alabama, Duke, South Carolina
5. Florida, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Kentucky
6. Utah State, San Diego St, St. Mary's, BYU
7. Nevada, Dayton, Washington State, Gonzaga
8. Clemson, Nebraska, Texas, Colorado State
9. Northwestern, Boise State, Colorado, TCU
10. Oklahoma, New Mexico, first four:  Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, St. John's, Mississippi State
11. Oregon, Drake, NC State, Grand Canyon
12. James Madison, McNeese State, VCU*, Samford
13. UAB*, Charleston, Vermont, Oakland
14. Yale, Morehead State, Akron, Western Kentucky
15. Colgate, Long Beach State, South Dakota State, Stetson
16. St. Peter's, Longwood, Montana State, Wagner, Howard, Grambling

*:  UAB at 12 if VCU loses today.  If both UAB and VCU lose, leave the AAC winner (Temple) at 13

[go iu bb 5,684]

36 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Michigan St and Colorado  also in the 20s and both a squarely on the bubble.  Sparty might be in more trouble than originally thought.  So is Northwestern.  I was shocked after looking at it closer.  Bottom of bubble is a crap shoot 

I hope they're left out. Both teams, but especially MSU. I want the B1G to be embarrassed by the number of teams they get in. Apparently, that's all they really care about since they haven't made any changes after the flameouts the past few years.

[Uspshoosier 45,528]

Happy Selection Sunday for those that celebrate.    Going to go over the bracket  again and will submit my projection later today 

[IUHoosierJoe 1,123]

I usually just do this just for my own amusement and entertainment, but the following is my computer-generated selection of teams for the tournament through yesterday's games (records are for Div. 1 games only).  The teams are rated and ranked using a 50-50 split of score-based and result-based metrics.  The first column on the left is the seeding, the second column is the overall ranking using the blending of the 2 systems.  FF means First Four.  For conferences (like the Big 10) where the champion has not yet been decided, I designated my higher ranked teams in today's games as the AQ.  This is NOT my prediction of what the committee will do, but a lot of it may closely match up.  The main difference will be that the inclusion of such a heavy percentage of the result-based metric causes a few mid-majors to be included here that won't get in, or to get a little bit higher seed here from me than the selection committee will give them:     

1	1	Houston		Big 12		30	-	4
1	2	Purdue		Big 10		29	-	4
1	3	Connecticut  (AQ)		Big East		31	-	3
1	4	Arizona		Pac 12		25	-	8
2	5	Auburn  (AQ)		Southeastern		26	-	7
2	6	Iowa St (AQ)		Big 12		27	-	7
2	7	Tennessee		Southeastern		24	-	8
2	8	North Carolina		Atlantic Coast		27	-	7
3	9	Alabama		Southeastern		21	-	11
3	10	Illinois (AQ)		Big 10		25	-	8
3	11	Marquette		Big East		25	-	9
3	12	Creighton		Big East		23	-	9
4	13	Baylor		Big 12		22	-	10
4	14	Duke		Atlantic Coast		24	-	8
4	15	New Mexico (AQ)		Mountain West		25	-	9
4	16	San Diego St		Mountain West		22	-	10
5	17	BYU		Big 12		23	-	10
5	18	Utah St		Mountain West		25	-	6
5	19	Gonzaga		West Coast		24	-	7
5	20	Kansas		Big 12		21	-	10
6	21	Kentucky		Southeastern		23	-	9
6	22	St Mary's CA (AQ)		West Coast		25	-	7
6	23	Nevada		Mountain West		25	-	7
6	24	Dayton		Atlantic 10		24	-	7
7	25	Wisconsin		Big 10		22	-	12
7	26	Drake (AQ)		Missouri Val		27	-	6
7	27	Indiana St		Missouri Val		27	-	6
7	28	Florida		Southeastern		24	-	10
8	29	Colorado St		Mountain West		22	-	10
8	30	Colorado		Pac 12		24	-	10
8	31	Texas Tech		Big 12		23	-	10
8	32	FL Atlantic		American Athletic		25	-	8
9	33	Boise St		Mountain West		20	-	10
9	34	Clemson		Atlantic Coast		21	-	11
9	35	Grand Canyon (AQ)		Western Athletic		28	-	4
9	36	Washington St		Pac 12		24	-	9
10	37	Nebraska		Big 10		23	-	10
10	38	Michigan St		Big 10		19	-	14
10	39	South Carolina		Southeastern		26	-	7
10	40	Mississippi St		Southeastern		21	-	13
11	41	Princeton		Ivy League		22	-	4		FF
11	42	Texas		Big 12		20	-	12		FF
11	43	TCU		Big 12		21	-	12		FF
11	44	Pittsburgh		Atlantic Coast		22	-	11		FF
11	47	James Madison (AQ)		Sun Belt		30	-	3
11	49	Oregon (AQ)		Pac 12		23	-	11
12	50	McNeese St (AQ)		Southland		26	-	3
12	52	Samford (AQ)		Southern		27	-	5
12	62	NC State (AQ)		Atlantic Coast		22	-	14
12	65	Yale (AQ)		Ivy League		19	-	9
13	70	Vermont (AQ)		America East		26	-	6
13	77	VCU (AQ)		Atlantic 10		22	-	12
13	83	Col Charleston (AQ)		Coastal		26	-	7
13	90	UAB (AQ)		American Athletic		21	-	11
14	103	Akron (AQ)		Mid-American		22	-	10
14	107	Morehead St (AQ)		OH Valley		22	-	8
14	111	Oakland (AQ)		Horizon		23	-	11
14	131	Colgate (AQ)		Patriot League		24	-	9
15	132	WKU (AQ)		Conference USA		19	-	11
15	139	S Dakota St (AQ)		Summit Lg		19	-	12
15	154	Long Beach St (AQ)		Big West		19	-	14
15	159	Longwood (AQ)		Big South		18	-	13
16	171	Stetson (AQ)		Atlantic Sun		19	-	12
16	178	St Peter's (AQ)		Metro Atlantic		18	-	13
16	215	Montana St (AQ)		Big Sky		15	-	16		FF
16	222	Grambling (AQ)		Southwestern AC		17	-	14		FF
16	267	Howard (AQ)		Mid-Eastern AC		16	-	16		FF
16	288	Wagner (AQ)		Northeast		14	-	15		FF
OUT	45	St John's		Big East		20	-	13
OUT	46	Oklahoma		Big 12		20	-	12
OUT	48	Cincinnati		Big 12		20	-	14
OUT	51	Wake Forest		Atlantic Coast		20	-	13
OUT	53	Northwestern		Big 10		21	-	11
OUT	54	Utah		Pac 12		19	-	14
OUT	55	Virginia		Atlantic Coast		23	-	10
OUT	56	Ohio St		Big 10		20	-	13

 

[RaceToTheTop 25,288]

8 minutes ago, IUHoosierJoe said:

I usually just do this just for my own amusement and entertainment, but the following is my computer-generated selection of teams for the tournament through yesterday's games (records are for Div. 1 games only).  The teams are rated and ranked using a 50-50 split of score-based and result-based metrics.  The first column on the left is the seeding, the second column is the overall ranking using the blending of the 2 systems.  FF means First Four.  For conferences (like the Big 10) where the champion has not yet been decided, I designated my higher ranked teams in today's games as the AQ.  This is NOT my prediction of what the committee will do, but a lot of it may closely match up.  The main difference will be that the inclusion of such a heavy percentage of the result-based metric causes a few mid-majors to be included here that won't get in, or to get a little bit higher seed here from me than the selection committee will give them:     

1	1	Houston		Big 12		30	-	4
1	2	Purdue		Big 10		29	-	4
1	3	Connecticut  (AQ)		Big East		31	-	3
1	4	Arizona		Pac 12		25	-	8
2	5	Auburn  (AQ)		Southeastern		26	-	7
2	6	Iowa St (AQ)		Big 12		27	-	7
2	7	Tennessee		Southeastern		24	-	8
2	8	North Carolina		Atlantic Coast		27	-	7
3	9	Alabama		Southeastern		21	-	11
3	10	Illinois (AQ)		Big 10		25	-	8
3	11	Marquette		Big East		25	-	9
3	12	Creighton		Big East		23	-	9
4	13	Baylor		Big 12		22	-	10
4	14	Duke		Atlantic Coast		24	-	8
4	15	New Mexico (AQ)		Mountain West		25	-	9
4	16	San Diego St		Mountain West		22	-	10
5	17	BYU		Big 12		23	-	10
5	18	Utah St		Mountain West		25	-	6
5	19	Gonzaga		West Coast		24	-	7
5	20	Kansas		Big 12		21	-	10
6	21	Kentucky		Southeastern		23	-	9
6	22	St Mary's CA (AQ)		West Coast		25	-	7
6	23	Nevada		Mountain West		25	-	7
6	24	Dayton		Atlantic 10		24	-	7
7	25	Wisconsin		Big 10		22	-	12
7	26	Drake (AQ)		Missouri Val		27	-	6
7	27	Indiana St		Missouri Val		27	-	6
7	28	Florida		Southeastern		24	-	10
8	29	Colorado St		Mountain West		22	-	10
8	30	Colorado		Pac 12		24	-	10
8	31	Texas Tech		Big 12		23	-	10
8	32	FL Atlantic		American Athletic		25	-	8
9	33	Boise St		Mountain West		20	-	10
9	34	Clemson		Atlantic Coast		21	-	11
9	35	Grand Canyon (AQ)		Western Athletic		28	-	4
9	36	Washington St		Pac 12		24	-	9
10	37	Nebraska		Big 10		23	-	10
10	38	Michigan St		Big 10		19	-	14
10	39	South Carolina		Southeastern		26	-	7
10	40	Mississippi St		Southeastern		21	-	13
11	41	Princeton		Ivy League		22	-	4		FF
11	42	Texas		Big 12		20	-	12		FF
11	43	TCU		Big 12		21	-	12		FF
11	44	Pittsburgh		Atlantic Coast		22	-	11		FF
11	47	James Madison (AQ)		Sun Belt		30	-	3
11	49	Oregon (AQ)		Pac 12		23	-	11
12	50	McNeese St (AQ)		Southland		26	-	3
12	52	Samford (AQ)		Southern		27	-	5
12	62	NC State (AQ)		Atlantic Coast		22	-	14
12	65	Yale (AQ)		Ivy League		19	-	9
13	70	Vermont (AQ)		America East		26	-	6
13	77	VCU (AQ)		Atlantic 10		22	-	12
13	83	Col Charleston (AQ)		Coastal		26	-	7
13	90	UAB (AQ)		American Athletic		21	-	11
14	103	Akron (AQ)		Mid-American		22	-	10
14	107	Morehead St (AQ)		OH Valley		22	-	8
14	111	Oakland (AQ)		Horizon		23	-	11
14	131	Colgate (AQ)		Patriot League		24	-	9
15	132	WKU (AQ)		Conference USA		19	-	11
15	139	S Dakota St (AQ)		Summit Lg		19	-	12
15	154	Long Beach St (AQ)		Big West		19	-	14
15	159	Longwood (AQ)		Big South		18	-	13
16	171	Stetson (AQ)		Atlantic Sun		19	-	12
16	178	St Peter's (AQ)		Metro Atlantic		18	-	13
16	215	Montana St (AQ)		Big Sky		15	-	16		FF
16	222	Grambling (AQ)		Southwestern AC		17	-	14		FF
16	267	Howard (AQ)		Mid-Eastern AC		16	-	16		FF
16	288	Wagner (AQ)		Northeast		14	-	15		FF
OUT	45	St John's		Big East		20	-	13
OUT	46	Oklahoma		Big 12		20	-	12
OUT	48	Cincinnati		Big 12		20	-	14
OUT	51	Wake Forest		Atlantic Coast		20	-	13
OUT	53	Northwestern		Big 10		21	-	11
OUT	54	Utah		Pac 12		19	-	14
OUT	55	Virginia		Atlantic Coast		23	-	10
OUT	56	Ohio St		Big 10		20	-	13

 

Lot of similarities to my WAR calculations.  I don't calculate every team -- I don't normally calculate it for teams that I expect to have negative WAR values -- but my straight WAR calculations agree on Indiana State and Princeton being worthy of bids (I know they won't get one -- different criteria for selection).

Will DM you a spreadsheet showing a comparison between your and my sheet.  Biggest individual difference I see is in South Carolina, which WAR likes.

[IUHoosierJoe 1,123]

Cool….I do expect South Carolina to get a much higher seed than I show.  My score-based rating for them—ranked around 55 or 60–kills their overall ranking.  Result-based I have them ranked around 15.

[cbp4iu 1,431]

Not that it matters but I saw IU’s net is back down to 98…. 

[Uspshoosier 45,528]

Plenty of threads about Woodson.  Please keep this one about team resumes and bracketology.   Thanks 

[Uspshoosier 45,528]

Which team that think they are safe get left out?   I think committee leaves a team that everyone thinks is safe out this year.  Just not a lot of separation at the bottom and different teams have different things to like and not to like about them.    Trying to project what they will do or value is going to be tough.  I’ve done this a long time and this will be one of the hardest to predict.   Don’t expand the ncaa tourney  it’s ok if good teams get left out (except ISU this year). It should be hard to make it 

[Uspshoosier 45,528]

2 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

UAB at 12 if VCU loses today.  If both UAB and VCU lose, leave the AAC winner (Temple) at 13

If Brown holds on that will be a big change from where Yale will be 

 

Brown up 4 with 3:48 to go 

[LIHoosier 26,045]

If Brown win this, are they in the first 4 or are they good enough to get a 15 seed?

[Uspshoosier 45,528]

28 minutes ago, LIHoosier said:

If Brown win this, are they in the first 4 or are they good enough to get a 15 seed?

They would have been in the first 4 I think.  My first reaction but I would have had to compare to the bottom 16 seed teams to be sure.   Don’t have to worry about it now 

[AH1971 1,448]

Are we sure Florida Atlantic is in? Decent metrics and NET but 2 quad 4 losses and a quad 3 loss. In over a team like Providence?

[Uspshoosier 45,528]

4 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

Are we sure Florida Atlantic is in? Decent metrics and NET but 2 quad 4 losses and a quad 3 loss. In over a team like Providence?

They are one of the 8 teams for 14 spots for me.   My gut says they get in but I won’t be surprised if they are in Dayton 

[Uspshoosier 45,528]

https://x.com/goodmanhoops/status/1769431107240362250?s=46
 

Let’s go 

[IUHoosierJoe 1,123]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Which team that think they are safe get left out?   I think committee leaves a team that everyone thinks is safe out this year.  Just not a lot of separation at the bottom and different teams have different things to like and not to like about them.    Trying to project what they will do or value is going to be tough.  I’ve done this a long time and this will be one of the hardest to predict.   Don’t expand the ncaa tourney  it’s ok if good teams get left out (except ISU this year). It should be hard to make it 

I’m interested to see how this committee views mid- majors vs. P5.  Could affect a lot of teams, like Indiana State, St. John’s, Virginia, Northwestern, etc.