Breaking the schedule down into Thirds

[Brass Cannon]

Always been a fan of breaking the 18 game schedule down into thirds. Goal being to go 5-1 in each and win the Big Ten or at least go 4-2 and make the tourney. 

First Third

Illinois

@ Michigan 

@ Maryland

 Nebraska 

@ Purdue

@ Northwestern

Definitely a tough stretch. 3 of the road games are winnable though. Really have to hold serve at home. Smallest of blessings that the students won't be back for Michigan.  4-2 is doable my guess 3-3

Second Third

Michigan

@ Rutgers

@ Michigan State

Iowa

Ohio State

@ Minnesota 

Very odd stretch since our road slate might actually be easier than our home slate slate.  All these games are winnable. Would really hope to be able to go 4-2 in this stretch. 

Final Third

Purdue

@ Iowa

Wisconsin

Michigan State

@ Illinois

Rutgers

No reason to not win the last two. Would hopefully be able to go .500 in the first four. Hopefully able to go 4-2 this stretch. Maybe optimistic but at Iowa is winnable and with our home court I don't think unreasonable for 4-2  hoping for 5-1 deep down  

 

So I guess I have us going 11-7 the final 18 games for a total record of 13-7 in conference and 22-9 overall. 

[mdn82]

I can agree with that. Probably put us in the 5 seed range with the wins we would have. Some upside for sure. Get in the tourney and see where we go.


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[yogisballin]

Always been a fan of breaking the 18 game schedule down into thirds. Goal being to go 5-1 in each and win the Big Ten or at least go 4-2 and make the tourney. 
First Third
Illinois
@ Michigan 
@ Maryland
 Nebraska 
@ Purdue
@ Northwestern
Definitely a tough stretch. 3 of the road games are winnable though. Really have to hold serve at home. Smallest of blessings that the students won't be back for Michigan.  4-2 is doable my guess 3-3
Second Third
Michigan
@ Rutgers
@ Michigan State
Iowa
Ohio State
@ Minnesota 
Very odd stretch since our road slate might actually be easier than our home slate slate.  All these games are winnable. Would really hope to be able to go 4-2 in this stretch. 
Final Third
Purdue
@ Iowa
Wisconsin
Michigan State
@ Illinois
Rutgers
No reason to not win the last two. Would hopefully be able to go .500 in the first four. Hopefully able to go 4-2 this stretch. Maybe optimistic but at Iowa is winnable and with our home court I don't think unreasonable for 4-2  hoping for 5-1 deep down  
 
So I guess I have us going 11-7 the final 18 games for a total record of 13-7 in conference and 22-9 overall. 

I just went over this. I think, 1st stretch we go 2-4, 2nd at 4-2 and 3rd at 3-3 putting us at .500 in conference the rest of the way. Totally 11-9 in B1G


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[yogisballin]

I just went over this. I think, 1st stretch we go 2-4, 2nd at 4-2 and 3rd at 3-3 putting us at .500 in conference the rest of the way. Totally 11-9 in B1G


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The 1st stretch you have listed, IMO, will be kind of our “pave our way” stretch. Yes, I know. EVERY game is important


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[WayneFleekHoosier]

I just went over this. I think, 1st stretch we go 2-4, 2nd at 4-2 and 3rd at 3-3 putting us at .500 in conference the rest of the way. Totally 11-9 in B1G


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Agree. I’m thinking 12-8 or 11-9. I’m never confident on the road and that even includes teams like Illinois. Hoping we can close to holding serve at home.

I haven’t seen much home cooking yet so hopefully that kicks in soon.


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[fwgreenway]

After the Illinois win (yes please) the next 8 games on the schedule could be a very rough stretch. 6 away and 2 home with the home games against maybe two of the better teams in the conference. Ouch - I hope we don't lose our collective minds here.

[HoosierAloha]

Ugh, these 11-9 to 13-7 predictions are realistic, but will still be very disappointing. The B1G is definitely better overall than I expected but a 20-11 season sucks. 

13-7 in conference and 9-2 noncon would be a solid season and most likely have us in the tourney with a 4-6 seed depending on what games we win. I would consider that a decent year 2 under Arch and Co.

I think we could go 3-3 or 4-2 in the first stretch beating Ill and Neb at home then getting one or two of @Maryland, @Northwestern, and @pu. If we can get 4 there I like our chances of being upward of 12 conference wins.


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[Brass Cannon]

51 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

13-7 in conference and 9-2 noncon would be a solid season and most likely have us in the tourney with a 4-6 seed depending on what games we win. I would consider that a decent year 2 under Arch and Co.

I think we could go 3-3 or 4-2 in the first stretch beating Ill and Neb at home then getting one or two of @Maryland, @Northwestern, and @pu. If we can get 4 there I like our chances of being upward of 12 conference wins.


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Same the real key to me is defending home court. 

We also have to beat Illinois and Rutgers.  Especially at home. Only potential bad losses next year but also on the road. Assuming that we are 6-0. And just have to split remaining games. 

[yogisballin]

4 hours ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Agree. I’m thinking 12-8 or 11-9. I’m never confident on the road and that even includes teams like Illinois. Hoping we can close to holding serve at home.

I haven’t seen much home cooking yet so hopefully that kicks in soon.


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I'm not real confident vs Illinois at home. May get bashed for this but don't really care. We (our guards) do not handle pressure real well plus Illinois plays really hard. 

[mdn82]

13-7 in conference and 9-2 noncon would be a solid season and most likely have us in the tourney with a 4-6 seed depending on what games we win. I would consider that a decent year 2 under Arch and Co.

I think we could go 3-3 or 4-2 in the first stretch beating Ill and Neb at home then getting one or two of @Maryland, @Northwestern, and @pu. If we can get 4 there I like our chances of being upward of 12 conference wins.


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Same here. 5-1 is probably the best we see. 2-4 would be worst. We will smoke Illinois unless they hit 20 3’s. Nebraska will be tough. I think 3 wins in those 6 is most likely. Tough stretch for sure.


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[WayneFleekHoosier]

I'm not real confident vs Illinois at home. May get bashed for this but don't really care. We (our guards) do not handle pressure real well plus Illinois plays really hard. 

Agree. Illinois isn’t as bad as their record.

Sometimes it depends when You play a team and how much fight they have left in them.


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[HoosierAloha]

Always been a fan of breaking the 18 game schedule down into thirds. Goal being to go 5-1 in each and win the Big Ten or at least go 4-2 and make the tourney. 
First Third
Illinois
@ Michigan 
@ Maryland
 Nebraska 
@ Purdue
@ Northwestern
Definitely a tough stretch. 3 of the road games are winnable though. Really have to hold serve at home. Smallest of blessings that the students won't be back for Michigan.  4-2 is doable my guess 3-3
Second Third
Michigan
@ Rutgers
@ Michigan State
Iowa
Ohio State
@ Minnesota 
Very odd stretch since our road slate might actually be easier than our home slate slate.  All these games are winnable. Would really hope to be able to go 4-2 in this stretch. 
Final Third
Purdue
@ Iowa
Wisconsin
Michigan State
@ Illinois
Rutgers
No reason to not win the last two. Would hopefully be able to go .500 in the first four. Hopefully able to go 4-2 this stretch. Maybe optimistic but at Iowa is winnable and with our home court I don't think unreasonable for 4-2  hoping for 5-1 deep down  
 
So I guess I have us going 11-7 the final 18 games for a total record of 13-7 in conference and 22-9 overall. 

Hot take...
I think we win at Maryland. They have a lot of talent in Cowan, Smith, and Fernando but I don’t think they’re that well coached. It won’t be easy but I think we frustrate them with our defense and it wears on them.

I also feel we’re going to take another either at pu or at NW putting us at 4-2 in the first 6 listed above. At 6-2 in conference after the first 8 I believe we’ll solidly be in that second tier of the Big Ten.


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[Brass Cannon]

1 hour ago, HoosierAloha said:

Hot take...
I think we win at Maryland. They have a lot of talent in Cowan, Smith, and Fernando but I don’t think they’re that well coached. It won’t be easy but I think we frustrate them with our defense and it wears on them.

I also feel we’re going to take another either at pu or at NW putting us at 4-2 in the first 6 listed above. At 6-2 in conference after the first 8 I believe we’ll solidly be in that second tier of the Big Ten.


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Was thinking that the Maryland game was ripe for the picking earlier. Out of curiosity who do you have in tier 1. Just Michigan?

[HoosierAloha]

Was thinking that the Maryland game was ripe for the picking earlier. Out of curiosity who do you have in tier 1. Just Michigan?

Michigan and Michigan State are my tier one, one of those should win the conference and make it past the sweet 16


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[Brass Cannon]

16 hours ago, HoosierAloha said:

Michigan and Michigan State are my tier one, one of those should win the conference and make it past the sweet 16


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I’m still undecided on MSU. Not sure how much room for growth they have and what’s their best win at Florida?  I could see us above them. I genuinely feel that Michigan is clearly above everybody else in the conference. 

[mdn82]

I’m still undecided on MSU. Not sure how much room for growth they gave and what’s their best win at Florida?  I could see us above them. I genuinely feel that Michigan is clearly above everybody else in the conference. 

I can agree with this. I can see us in a tier with MSU, Wisconsin, and maybe even Maryland. Although I feel Maryland is in a tier just below that second tier. I do feel UM is in their own tier. But they haven’t been as tight the last few weeks. Maybe the way they played early was the best they play and they are coming back to earth a little. Still at the top but not a 1 or 2 loss B1G team like I thought early. Maybe a 3-5 loss team.


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[Brass Cannon]

Just now, mdn82 said:

I can agree with this. I can see us in a tier with MSU, Wisconsin, and maybe even Maryland. Although I feel Maryland is in a tier just below that second tier. I do feel UM is in their own tier. But they haven’t been as tight the last few weeks. Maybe the way they played early was the best they play and they are coming back to earth a little. Still at the top but not a 1 or 2 loss B1G team like I thought early. Maybe a 3-5 loss team.


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Yep agreed. I think our game at Michigan is key for any team hoping to beat them for the conference tbh. A good defense playing without the students. Every team with conference title aspirations will be hoping we beat them. 

[HoosierAloha]

I think MSU has everything to compete for the conference. I don’t see them winning but I see them finishing ahead of us.

I’d probably have Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Indiana in the second tier. Maryland, Nebraska, and maybe Iowa in the next tier. Maryland and Iowa because of coaching and Nebraska because of depth.

I believe all these teams will be in the tourney or on the bubble.


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[mdn82]

I think MSU has everything to compete for the conference. I don’t see them winning but I see them finishing ahead of us.

I’d probably have Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Indiana in the second tier. Maryland, Nebraska, and maybe Iowa in the next tier. Maryland and Iowa because of coaching and Nebraska because of depth.

I believe all these teams will be in the tourney or on the bubble.


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I can see that and think it’s splitting hairs. A lot will depend on whom you play and when. I feel there are teams that are better than us that may finish lower and Vice versa based on who they play and when. Getting off to a strong start is paramount this year of all years despite our opponents.


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[Brass Cannon]

So far about where I expected. Gotta protect home court and steal one of these road games.