#IUBB Expectations

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

Zeller, Oladipo, Watford, Hulls, Abell, Elston, Creek ... All GONE. Indiana hasn't had this much turnover or new look in 4 years. They are going to be very inexperienced and will make some bonehead mistakes.

The team will still be really talented, but what are your expectations for this team? What will make you say this was a Good year vs a Bad year?

Best case Scenario? Worst case?

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[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

Best Case: Sweet 16 birth + Top 4 finish in B1G. This team will win some game we don't expect them to, but will lose some the same way. I think this could be a Sweet 16 team with a favorable draw and they come together and play as a team.

Worst Case: NCAA First round exit. I don't think this team could miss the tourney. I could be wrong, but I don't see us missing the Dance in the near future. If that happens... Yikes this season will be rough. Bottom half of the B1G finish would be worst case for this team.

Biggest concern is going to be our adjustment to B1G play. This team will get some confidence running and gunning vs the Community Colleges. None of those teams will be able to keep pace with us as I expect us to be even faster and more up and down the Cory than last season. I'm worried it will be a rough entrance for the freshman seeing significant minutes to big ten play. (See Tom Pritchard freshman year).

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[mamasa 15,134]

I'm so torn as to how this season shakes out.  I think Will and Yogi do their thing, and lead the team.  However, the direction from there is like a complex algebra problem, with Hanner, Jeremy, Peter, Austin, etc. as the variables (Will + Yogi + X + Y +Z=?).  If certain players develop greatly, I see no reason to see the Sweet 16 or beyond.  On the other hand, if the development just isn't there, it could be a frustrating season, with losses in winable games.  I'm an eternal optimist, so I try to see the good in everything, whether it's a learning season for the freshman, or overall success as a team.  In any case, I'm very excited to get this underway :)

[maxwell 581]

Yesterday I was thinking about the following comparison:

 

11-12   JHU VJ VO CW  CZ WS (DE MR TP RA DM AE KB MC....) 

13-14   YF EG WS JHO NV (LF/HP) (TW-SR-DD-PJ-AE-CH) I have no inside info & I never place a ceiling on what any member of a team can contribute from any given role. 

 

Thoughts:

 

1)  Relatively a low expectation from fan base compared to last year; yet similar to 2011-12.

 

2)  The athleticism of our bench is very exciting to see develop.  It will help provide more defensive stops in the final tournament compared to previous years.  

 

3)   When looking at the first 5-6 players individually I feel where the 2013-14 guys come up short the make up for it in other areas.  This includes the VO -WS comparison.  In many ways its unfair to compare any player to Vic; however, looking at Will's leadership & what the kind of influence he has on all freshman and sophomores is tremendous.  He can say what he wants to the media about "not being the guy" & "everyone is treated equal", but if he sees a lull in any aspect of what is  to be accomplished in a practice... they are not all "equal"  compared to how Will will voice his opinions about required changes & additional effort.

 

4)  The last of Will's quote on media day fires me up as much as anything that has been said or written about this years team: " ...but we have guys on our team who can fill those voids.  I truely think so.  I'm not saying we have two lottery picks on our team,  but I think there are a lot of guys who are willing to do things that maybe some of the guys on our team last year weren't willing to do."

 

 

 Video of Will's interview

 

5)  Regular season results will not be as good as last 2 years.  The run at the dance will be better.

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

5) Regular season results will not be as good as last 2 years. The run at the dance will be better.

WOW! That's a bold, bold prediction. I certainly hope you are right.

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[maxwell 581]

WOW! That's a bold, bold prediction. I certainly hope you are right.

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Agreed.  On 10-16-11, would a prediction of a run to the Sweet 16 been considered a touch bold as well?  btw- My apologies for not following the Best Case/Worst Case Scenario.  My bad.

[JaybobHoosier 11,839]

Always enjoy these topics!

 

Best Case Scenario:

 

 - IU makes a run to the Elite 8, and finishes in the Top 3 of the Big10.  IU has a ton of talent and depth, and even though there is a lot of inexperience, it comes together during the Big10 Season and takes everyone by storm.  Noah Vonleh is the Freshman Big10 POY and 1st Team All-Big10, with Sheehey and Yogi as 1st or 2nd Team All Big10.  Robinson provides the much needed depth at both guard spots, and becomes a started to let Gordon come off the bench with great veteran presence.  Hanner and Fischer are better than expected, and take over the 5 spot.  Not to mention, Hollowell making a big Freshman to Sophomore jump!

 

Worst Case Scenario:

 

 - IU is a bubble team but makes the NIT because of their weak non-conference schedule.  They finish 8th in the Big10 because of the youth and inexperience, and struggle to find an identity.  The injury bug is already getting at this team, with Vonleh, Fischer, Williams, and Robinson coming back from summer injuries, while Jurkin and Etherington fight their way back from injuries last season.  Vonleh, Yogi, and Sheehey are the only contributors for this team with any consistency, and no one else steps up to help them.  Hollowell and Hanner still not reaching their potential, and having trouble getting comfortable in the rotation.  Gordon and Robinson struggle to provide quality guard depth to compliment Yogi.  Shooting is too much of a weakness where opposing defenses sag and play off of everyone. 

 

Overall:

 

Best Case - Elite8 and Top 3 Big10 Finish

Worst Case - NIT Tourny and injuries

 

My prediction for this season:

 

 - 5th in the Big10, and a 3rd Round (I still call it the 2nd round, before the Sweet16) nail-biting loss to a very good team that makes it to the Final Four.  Reason, this team is so talented and athletic, and will be a good defensive and rebounding team that will be great at transition.  That will be what we are known for.  We need guys outside of Sheehey, Hollwell, and Etherington who can shoot consistently from deep.  If we get that, we will go further IMO in the Tourny and Big10.  However, I still think it will plague us a lot this season. 

[mdn82 25,510]

Bold prediction....  Hmm...  Making it to the finals of the BTT.  That helps us get a 4 seed in the tournament where we lose to Kentucky.  That pains me to say, but we are staying in the Midwest and playing in Indy against Kentucky.  I am going. 

 

Worst case is a Bubble/In year where we are either playing in the play in game (would make me very mad) or have a 9 seed. 

[sadie 7]

I feel they will be alright, just play ball and have fun doing it!  it's not going to be easy, but just play ball and be smart.

[JaybobHoosier 11,839]

I feel they will be alright, just play ball and have fun doing it!  it's not going to be easy, but just play ball and be smart.

 

Welcome Sadie and great to have you posting! Hope you will enjoy your time here and post more!!! :)

[Hwy 1 2,053]

I just expect them to represent IU well. 

[mdn82 25,510]

I feel they will be alright, just play ball and have fun doing it!  it's not going to be easy, but just play ball and be smart.

 

Absolutely.  That is the biggest thing under Crean.  He isn't mechanical in how his players perform.  If they are themselves within his offense we will be successful. 

[mdn82 25,510]

I just expect them to represent IU well. 

 

Thank goodness they will.

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

Agreed. On 10-16-11, would a prediction of a run to the Sweet 16 been considered a touch bold as well? btw- My apologies for not following the Best Case/Worst Case Scenario. My bad.

That's a valid argument. I think a sweet 16 run for that group was more likely than this group given how much experience we returned and added Zeller. That being said, If we could make 3 straight Sweet 16s I'd call that a MAJOR success this season. If that happens, next year could get ugly if we don't make it past the Sweet 16.

Sweet 16 is a GREAT goal for this group. Maybe the magic will happen and this team will get it together late in the season as opposed to early in the season like the last group.

[All_Hoosiers 873]

Extremely young team, but easily the most talent Tom Crean has had at Indiana. I'm really high on the potential for this team. Regular season may be up and down, but watch out come tournament time. We'll be a very hard out.

[Parakeet Jones 3,740]

I think the gap between the best case scenario and the worst case scenario is as wide this year as it has ever been.  I

 

'll say best case scenario is that JH & HMP make a huge leap, Noah is as good as advertised, we get solid contribution from at least two other Fr. (think Gerry McNamara from Melo's Fr. year at Syracuse), and Yogi and Will are Yogi and Will.  This leaves us ranked all year, hovering just below the top spot in the B1G, and primed for a return trip to the sweet 16 and maybe an Elite 8 run.

 

Worst case:  JH & HMP don't make much of a jump, outside of Noah our freshman look like freshman, and Yogi and Will don't handle being the focal point of other team's defensive game plans.  If that happens we are a bubble team and then it depends on who else is on the bubble and their resume vs. ours.  

[maxwell 581]

BEST CASE:  A repeat of the following:  

 

 

 

Got to love the Fish!

 

[RoadToZion 373]

We will start off sketchy but have a solid record because of our easy non conference schedule.

 

The beginning of the Big10 schedule we'll struggle because of our young team.

 

Midway/End of the Big10 season we'll beat teams no one thought we had a chance of beating, and we'll lose a few that we thought we should have won.

 

It'll be a roller coaster all year, with us eventually making the tournament and winning a game or 2.