Coronavirus and Its Impact

[Hoosierfan2017 20,947]

3 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

400 people died yesterday which is right on course with following Italy’s progression. This was an 8x increase from previous Friday’s death total. 
 

But yeah why let facts get in the way 

America has more than 5x the population of Italy, but yeah why let facts get in the way.

We also already have more cases than Italy and a fraction of their deaths, but yeah why let facts get in the way. 

[Hoosierfan2017 20,947]

5 minutes ago, Class of '66 Old Fart said:

When this finally subsides, I would be interested to see if the medical profession finds there was any particular correlation between the number of people infected and subsequent deaths to heavy lifelong smokers and to those in the military who served overseas especially in Vietnam.  I'm not on a soapbox regarding smoking vs. non-smoking but my dad was a 2-3 pack/day smoker and had all kinds of respiratory problems in his last years.  Covid-19 is seemingly targeting us old folks and respiratory problems are one of its main effects and I'm just curious if any such correlation is found.

In Italy 70% of deaths have been men, and men smoke at 2x the rate of women in Italy. So it does seem like there has been some correlation. 

[8bucks 6,353]

Yeah, the more we learn, the more it looks like Italy was in a unique position to be especially susceptible to a bad respiratory virus. That's not to say this isn't serious, but the Italy doomsday situation seems increasingly unlikely to happen here. 

Our number of cases is going to climb very high and that will cause people to freak out. The death rate hopefully won’t follow.




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[HoosierAloha 30,024]

I don’t know what happened to Joe’s kid though! Lol.


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Nips! Don’t ever change brother!!
When this is all over you should make a trip back up here.


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[mdn82 25,510]

America has more than 5x the population of Italy, but yeah why let facts get in the way.
We also already have more cases than Italy and a fraction of their deaths, but yeah why let facts get in the way. 

Our number of cases is going to climb very high and that will cause people to freak out. The death rate hopefully won’t follow.




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If our cases climb that is when the death rate will climb. Italy does not have as many ICU beds as us. The reason their deaths have peaked earlier is more due to them running out of beds earlier with a lower population. Places I would worry about beyond New York would be are New Orleans and Philly due to economic conditions, close living quarters, and limited healthcare versus population. The disease itself will kill probably at 1% give or take either side. Our death rate won’t climb higher unless they run out of ICU beds (these rooms will have the ventilators and there are less ventilators than ICU rooms). It’s a lot easier than you would think.


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[Hoosierfan2017 20,947]

21 minutes ago, mdn82 said:

 

If our cases climb that is when the death rate will climb. Italy does not have as many ICU beds as us. The reason their deaths have peaked earlier is more due to them running out of beds earlier with a lower population. Places I would worry about beyond New York would be are New Orleans and Philly due to economic conditions, close living quarters, and limited healthcare versus population. The disease itself will kill probably at 1% give or take either side. Our death rate won’t climb higher unless they run out of ICU beds (these rooms will have the ventilators and there are less ventilators than ICU rooms). It’s a lot easier than you would think.


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I don't want to get political, but I think Governor Cuomo has been doing a real good job of handling things in NY. I saw that they have a ton of ventilators in storage available if things get really bad. I also read today that the GM plant in Kokomo is going to start making ventilators soon too. 

[8bucks 6,353]

If our cases climb that is when the death rate will climb. Italy does not have as many ICU beds as us. The reason their deaths have peaked earlier is more due to them running out of beds earlier with a lower population. Places I would worry about beyond New York would be are New Orleans and Philly due to economic conditions, close living quarters, and limited healthcare versus population. The disease itself will kill probably at 1% give or take either side. Our death rate won’t climb higher unless they run out of ICU beds (these rooms will have the ventilators and there are less ventilators than ICU rooms). It’s a lot easier than you would think.

 

 

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I think another thing that can cause challenges will be hospital staff getting infected. My brother works in a hospital in NOLA and mentioned that one of the largest hospitals down there had staff that been hit hard. My Sister n law works in a hospital here tested positive this week. She now has to sit on the bench until Apr 8th. So far most of her symptoms are very mild and she only got tested because she worked in a hospital.

 

Out of an abundance of caution we are testing medical staff and even if they have very mild symptoms they have to pulled off the work force perhaps when needed most.

 

These front line workers can get infected easily and it will impact recovery of others when hospital staffs get thin.

 

Another close family member who works in a local hospital just sent this “I am ok. Trying to get some rest today before I go back on for 6 straight. 6 on 1 off. 12-16 hours each shift. I am spent!”

 

 

 

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[LamarCheeks 18,221]

A little something to lighten things up. A British sportscaster, with no sports to broadcast, announcing his labs' race to eat their meals. Mabel vs. Olive -- who ya got? 

(Sorry it's not doom and gloom). 
 

 

[Brass Cannon 24,271]

9 hours ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

America has more than 5x the population of Italy, but yeah why let facts get in the way.

We also already have more cases than Italy and a fraction of their deaths, but yeah why let facts get in the way. 

We are following Italy’s trajectory both nominally or population adjusted. 11-13 days behind the first and 19-21 behind the second. 

Yesterday 400 people died today more than 500. By the end of next week possibly the middle we will have more people dying a day than Italy. Theoretically there’s still time to prevent the population adjusted result Of 3500-5000 a day. But we arent doing anything meaningful to stop it. 
 

Just a week ago we had slightly over 300 total deaths. Today 515 in one. Probably 600+ tomorrow. That exponential growth is the real deal. 
 

And yeah we had had fewer deaths on a case by case basis because our healthcare system hasnt become completely overwhelmed. That comes next week that’s when we have to start choosing who loves and dies like Italy did. 

[Hoosierfan2017 20,947]

8 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

We are following Italy’s trajectory both nominally or population adjusted. 11-13 days behind the first and 19-21 behind the second. 

Yesterday 400 people died today more than 500. By the end of next week possibly the middle we will have more people dying a day than Italy. Theoretically there’s still time to prevent the population adjusted result Of 3500-5000 a day. But we arent doing anything meaningful to stop it. 
 

Just a week ago we had slightly over 300 total deaths. Today 515 in one. Probably 600+ tomorrow. That exponential growth is the real deal. 
 

And yeah we had had fewer deaths on a case by case basis because our healthcare system hasnt become completely overwhelmed. That comes next week that’s when we have to start choosing who loves and dies like Italy did. 

"That comes next week." 

That's exactly what they told us last week. And the week before last week. I guess if you keep kicking the can down the road week after week the prediction might eventually come true. 

I don't know how you can say we aren't doing anything meaningful to prevent it when we've shut down basically the entire country, cratering the economy in the process. 

[Brass Cannon 24,271]

2 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

"That comes next week." 

That's exactly what they told us last week. And the week before last week. I guess if you keep kicking the can down the road week after week the prediction might eventually come true. 

Care to quote those posts 

Nearly 300 people died in New York alone from this today. Adjusted for Population it basically is Italy already. 

[Golfman25 5,052]

38 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

We are following Italy’s trajectory both nominally or population adjusted. 11-13 days behind the first and 19-21 behind the second. 

Yesterday 400 people died today more than 500. By the end of next week possibly the middle we will have more people dying a day than Italy. Theoretically there’s still time to prevent the population adjusted result Of 3500-5000 a day. But we arent doing anything meaningful to stop it. 
 

Just a week ago we had slightly over 300 total deaths. Today 515 in one. Probably 600+ tomorrow. That exponential growth is the real deal. 
 

And yeah we had had fewer deaths on a case by case basis because our healthcare system hasnt become completely overwhelmed. That comes next week that’s when we have to start choosing who loves and dies like Italy did. 

You obviously missed this study which shows Italy has abnormally high death rates from the regular flu, but as Hoosierfan says, why let facts get int the way.  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285    We are not Italy.  

[Golfman25 5,052]

We dropped below a 20% growth rate in new cases today, to 18%.  Down from 40% last week.  That's call progress.  

[Hoosierfan2017 20,947]

27 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

Care to quote those posts 

Nearly 300 people died in New York alone from this today. Adjusted for Population it basically is Italy already. 

Wasn't talking about posts, but rather people on Twitter. Hence the "they" in my post.

1700 people die every day from heart disease in the United States. How many people even think twice about all that death? 

[Brass Cannon 24,271]

3 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

Wasn't talking about posts, but rather people on Twitter. Hence the "they" in my post.

1700 people die every day from heart disease in the United States. How many people even think twice about all that death? 

You can’t catch heart disease from somebody. 
 

You accused me of kicking a prediction down the road based on what other people said. Ok. I mean that makes even less sense than you usually do. 
 

9 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

You obviously missed this study which shows Italy has abnormally high death rates from the regular flu, but as Hoosierfan says, why let facts get int the way.  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285    We are not Italy.  

Yeah except the data in charts says otherwise 

 

7 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

We dropped below a 20% growth rate in new cases today, to 18%.  Down from 40% last week.  That's call progress.  

That’s called we stopped testing people unless it would affect treatment. 

[raorIU 314]

Washington Post interviewed the partner of the first woman to die in Indiana.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/28/voices-from-the-pandemic-indiana-man-recounts-partners-death-from-coronavirus/?arc404

It's paywalled, but available through Internet Archive here:

http://archive.is/tGWzM

[Hoosierfan2017 20,947]

1 minute ago, Brass Cannon said:

You can’t catch heart disease from somebody. 
 

You accused me of kicking a prediction down the road based on what other people said. Ok. I mean that makes even less sense than you usually do. 

I didn't accuse you of kicking a prediction down the road. The 'you' was a general you. But hey, don't let that get in the way of being typical unpleasant BC

[Brass Cannon 24,271]

1 minute ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I didn't accuse you of kicking a prediction down the road. The 'you' was a general you. But hey, don't let that get in the way of being typical unpleasant BC

You literally typed the word you. Silly me for assuming you understood what you were saying. Won’t make that mistake again. 

[Golfman25 5,052]

13 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

You can’t catch heart disease from somebody. 
 

You accused me of kicking a prediction down the road based on what other people said. Ok. I mean that makes even less sense than you usually do. 
 

Yeah except the data in charts says otherwise 

 

That’s called we stopped testing people unless it would affect treatment. 

You keep posting crap about gross numbers.  It's completely irrelevant when looking at this statistically.  We have more people.  You have to account for that.  Even with your gross numbers after 20 some days in, we are still a few thousand below Italy.  

[RaceToTheTop 25,031]

2 hours ago, Brass Cannon said:

That’s called we stopped testing people unless it would affect treatment. 

 

Yes and no.  Some places started doing that, especially ones where there was a high concentration of people of positive tests and lack of hospital space existed.  Not true in locations where that wasn't the case.  My brother-in-law works at a bank where one of their tellers was in contact with someone that had tested positive.  She has been tested despite a lack of symptoms due to her contact.

In Indiana, the percentage of tests that are positive compared to test given has stayed very constant at around 15%.  If they were only testing people who that were symptomatic or it would affect treatment, that percentage would be rising.