RaceToTheTop Posted February 11, 2024 Posted February 11, 2024 Current WAR multiple bid leagues: Big 12: 9 bids: Houston, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, BYU, TCU, Texas SEC: 9 bids: South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Florida, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Kentucky Big Ten: 6 bids: Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan State, Nebraska Mountain West: 6 bids: San Diego State, Colorado State, Utah State, Nevada, New Mexico, Boise State Big East: 4 bids. U Conn, Marquette, Creighton, Butler Pac 12: 4 bids: Arizona, Washington State, Oregon, Utah ACC: 4 bids: North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, Clemson Missouri Valley: 2 bids. Indiana State, Drake. Last four byes: Nebraska, Kentucky, TCU, Boise State Last four in: Drake, Texas, Oregon, Utah First four out: Memphis, Wake Forest, Colorado, Gonzaga Next four out: Kansas State, Syracuse, Cincinnati, St. John's NOTE: If James Madison were to not win their conference tournament, I actually currently have them above Boise State as the last team worthy of a bye which would bump Boise State to the last four in line and Utah to the first four out line. SECOND NOTE: Seton Hall would have been ahead of St.John's on the next four out line entering Sunday but will drop below them after their loss to Villanova today. Quote
RaceToTheTop Posted February 12, 2024 Posted February 12, 2024 Top 25 WAR through Sunday's games: Purdue 22-2, WAR +9.32 U Conn 22-2, WAR +7.54 Houston 21-3, WAR +6.83 Arizona 19-5, WAR +6.08 UNC 19-5, WAR +5.07 South Carolina 21-3, WAR +4.95 Marquette 18-5,WAR+4.88 Kansas 18-5, WAR +4.76 Tennessee 17-5, WAR+4.38 Alabama 17-7, WAR +4.28 Dayton 19-4, WAR+4.20 Indiana State 21-3, WAR+4.16 Auburn 19-5, WAR +4.13 San Diego State 16-6, WAR +3.82 Baylor 16-6, WAR +3.71 Mississippi 18-5, WAR +3.64 Iowa State 18-5, WAR +3.59 Illinois 17-6, WAR +3.57 Virginia 19-5, WAR +3.38 Colorado State 17-5, +3.38 Grand Canyon 21-2, WAR +3.28 Duke 18-5, WAR +3.13 Clemson 16-7, WAR +3.11 Oklahoma 18-6, WAR +3.09 Wisconsin, 16-8, +3.06 Close: Texas Tech 17-6, WAR +3.01, Florida Atlantic 19-5, WAR +2.92, Creighton 17-7, WAR +2.81, Utah State 19-4, WAR +2.73, Nevada 18-5, WAR +2.70 Rico and IUHoosierJoe 2 Quote
AZ Hoosier Posted February 12, 2024 Posted February 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said: Top 25 WAR through Sunday's games: Purdue 22-2, WAR +9.32 U Conn 22-2, WAR +7.54 Houston 21-3, WAR +6.83 Arizona 19-5, WAR +6.08 UNC 19-5, WAR +5.07 South Carolina 21-3, WAR +4.95 Marquette 18-5,WAR+4.88 Kansas 18-5, WAR +4.76 Tennessee 17-5, WAR+4.38 Alabama 17-7, WAR +4.28 Dayton 19-4, WAR+4.20 Indiana State 21-3, WAR+4.16 Auburn 19-5, WAR +4.13 San Diego State 16-6, WAR +3.82 Baylor 16-6, WAR +3.71 Mississippi 18-5, WAR +3.64 Iowa State 18-5, WAR +3.59 Illinois 17-6, WAR +3.57 Virginia 19-5, WAR +3.38 Colorado State 17-5, +3.38 Grand Canyon 21-2, WAR +3.28 Duke 18-5, WAR +3.13 Clemson 16-7, WAR +3.11 Oklahoma 18-6, WAR +3.09 Wisconsin, 16-8, +3.06 Close: Texas Tech 17-6, WAR +3.01, Florida Atlantic 19-5, WAR +2.92, Creighton 17-7, WAR +2.81, Utah State 19-4, WAR +2.73, Nevada 18-5, WAR +2.70 21. Grand Canyon won last night... they are 22-2. Quote
IUHoosierJoe Posted February 12, 2024 Posted February 12, 2024 My computer ratings through 2/11/24 games: 1 Purdue 22 - 2 ( 1 ) 2 Houston 21 - 3 ( 2 ) 3 Arizona 19 - 5 ( 3 ) 4 Connecticut 22 - 2 ( 4 ) 5 Alabama 17 - 7 ( 5 ) 6 Auburn 19 - 5 ( 9 ) 7 Iowa St 18 - 5 ( 10 ) 8 Tennessee 17 - 6 ( 6 ) 9 North Carolina 19 - 5 ( 7 ) 10 BYU 17 - 6 ( 8 ) 11 Marquette 18 - 5 ( 16 ) 12 Kansas 18 - 5 ( 14 ) 13 Illinois 17 - 6 ( 11 ) 14 Baylor 16 - 6 ( 13 ) 15 New Mexico 18 - 5 ( 12 ) 16 Indiana St 21 - 3 ( 22 ) 17 San Diego St 16 - 6 ( 17 ) 18 Creighton 17 - 7 ( 19 ) 19 Duke 18 - 5 ( 21 ) 20 Utah St 18 - 4 ( 15 ) 21 Dayton 19 - 4 ( 20 ) 22 Colorado St 17 - 5 ( 23 ) 23 FL Atlantic 19 - 5 ( 25 ) 24 Clemson 16 - 7 ( 34 ) 25 Michigan St 15 - 9 ( 24 ) Quote
RaceToTheTop Posted February 12, 2024 Posted February 12, 2024 5 hours ago, AZ Hoosier said: 21. Grand Canyon won last night... they are 22-2. I only include games against division 1 teams (this is what the NCAA committee will put on their sheets). Grand Canyon beat a D2 team earlier in the year. Quote
Uspshoosier Posted February 14, 2024 Author Posted February 14, 2024 Isu dropped 8 spots to 28 in the NET. If they have any chance at an at-large they have to win Saturday. Q2 road win is a must for them and then they need to win out the regular season and make it to the championship game. That would be the path but I would still be sweating if I was them. Quote
Uspshoosier Posted February 15, 2024 Author Posted February 15, 2024 Committees top 16 will be revealed this Saturday. Quote
Uspshoosier Posted February 15, 2024 Author Posted February 15, 2024 @Hovadipoi done some digging to compare ISUs resume to at large teams over the last couple years. Closest one that ended up in the first 4 was Belmont in 2019 Bemont ISU NET-47 28 Q1-(2-2) (1-3) Q2-(3-1) (3-0) Q3-(3-2) (8-0) Q4-(17-0) (9-1) SOS-154 132 non con sos-43. 167 I still think isu has a path to an at-large depending on what the committee is going to value. I’m pretty sure Belmont was the team I left out that year. They have to win on Saturday to get another Q2. If they win out regular season and make the final of the MVC tourney I still think they got a shot Hovadipo and str8baller 1 1 Quote
RaceToTheTop Posted February 15, 2024 Posted February 15, 2024 5 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said: @Hovadipoi done some digging to compare ISUs resume to at large teams over the last couple years. Closest one that ended up in the first 4 was Belmont in 2019 Bemont ISU NET-47 28 Q1-(2-2) (1-3) Q2-(3-1) (3-0) Q3-(3-2) (8-0) Q4-(17-0) (9-1) SOS-154 132 non con sos-43. 167 I still think isu has a path to an at-large depending on what the committee is going to value. I’m pretty sure Belmont was the team I left out that year. They have to win on Saturday to get another Q2. If they win out regular season and make the final of the MVC tourney I still think they got a shot If they win out in the regular season, then almost assuredly Drake and Bradley as the 2 and 3 seeds, so in terms of getting wins in their conference tournament they likely are playing either a 4 or 5 seed...I think the only team that could possibly get into the top 100 net by then is Southern Illinois, but they are currently at 109 and their best chance at a big jump would be to beat Indiana State in the regular season, which ISU can't have happen if they want an at large bid. So it's not likely that any conference tournament games they'll have other than the final would even be a quad 2. With the MVC tournament happening a week before selection Sunday, those games are sure to be looked at. I 100% agree with your assessment -- they could get an at large if they win out in the regular season and make the conference tournament finals. The committee surely won't like their lack of Q1/Q2 games plus the single Q1 win. Uspshoosier and Hovadipo 2 Quote
Uspshoosier Posted February 15, 2024 Author Posted February 15, 2024 11 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said: 100% agree with your @$$essment -- they could get an at large if they win out in the regular season and make the conference tournament finals. The committee surely won't like their lack of Q1/Q2 games plus the single Q1 win. The ones to watch are Missouri St and Murray St. isu won at both and they are both at 137 and 140 If either make it down to 136 then that would add another Q2. Going to be close. They just need to win Arch Madness Muskie for three and RaceToTheTop 2 Quote
RaceToTheTop Posted February 15, 2024 Posted February 15, 2024 1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said: The ones to watch are Missouri St and Murray St. isu won at both and they are both at 137 and 140 If either make it down to 136 then that would add another Q2. Going to be close. They just need to win Arch Madness Murray State could go to 135 by beating Indiana Statein the last game…not sure that is a good scenario though Quote
RaceToTheTop Posted February 15, 2024 Posted February 15, 2024 Question for @Uspshoosier Indiana State is currently ranked — won’t be next Monday. Let’s say they win out but lose the tournament title to Drake — they may be ranked after the tournament final. Has any ranked team ever not made the tourney since the field was expanded? Quote
Uspshoosier Posted February 15, 2024 Author Posted February 15, 2024 46 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said: Question for @Uspshoosier Indiana State is currently ranked — won’t be next Monday. Let’s say they win out but lose the tournament title to Drake — they may be ranked after the tournament final. Has any ranked team ever not made the tourney since the field was expanded? Yeah. St Mary’s and Utah st and SMU Quote
Uspshoosier Posted February 15, 2024 Author Posted February 15, 2024 Just now, Uspshoosier said: Yeah. St Mary’s and Utah st and SMU St Mary’s (2015-16) Utah St(2003-04) SMU(2013-14) a couple others were ranked but they were banned so I wouldn’t count them because they would of been selected Louisville (2015-16) self imposed banned UNLV(91-92) NCAA ban for recruiting violations RaceToTheTop 1 Quote
Uspshoosier Posted February 17, 2024 Author Posted February 17, 2024 Top 16 resumes for me 1. Purdue 2. uconn 3. Houston 4. Zona 5. Marquette 6. Tennessee 7. Kansas 8. North Carolina 9. Iowa St 10. Baylor 11. Bama 12. Auburn 13. Duke 14. Wisky 15. Illinois 16. Clemson Quote
Uspshoosier Posted February 17, 2024 Author Posted February 17, 2024 2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said: Top 16 resumes for me 1. Purdue 2. uconn 3. Houston 4. Zona 5. Marquette 6. Tennessee 7. Kansas 8. North Carolina 9. Iowa St 10. Baylor 11. Bama 12. Auburn 13. Duke 14. Wisky 15. Illinois 16. Clemson San Diego St, Creighton, Dayton considered for the 16th spot johnsoniu 1 Quote
RaceToTheTop Posted February 17, 2024 Posted February 17, 2024 1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said: Top 16 resumes for me 1. Purdue 2. uconn 3. Houston 4. Zona 5. Marquette 6. Tennessee 7. Kansas 8. North Carolina 9. Iowa St 10. Baylor 11. Bama 12. Auburn 13. Duke 14. Wisky 15. Illinois 16. Clemson Clemson seems to be the most polarizing team. Quote
Uspshoosier Posted February 17, 2024 Author Posted February 17, 2024 6 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said: Clemson seems to be the most polarizing team. Roads wins at North Carolina and Alabama and top 22 SOS. I’m trying to guess the committee valuing those 2 top end road wins. I would have no problem if they were left out but they would definitely be on the 5 seed line Quote
RaceToTheTop Posted February 17, 2024 Posted February 17, 2024 1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said: Roads wins at North Carolina and Alabama and top 22 SOS. I’m trying to guess the committee valuing those 2 top end road wins. I would have no problem if they were left out but they would definitely be on the 5 seed line I am in the like Clemson’s resume corner. Probably not in my top 16 seeded teams but don’t have an issue with them being there — although to be fair I haven’t seen any metric that has them as a top 16 team. Quote
Uspshoosier Posted February 17, 2024 Author Posted February 17, 2024 14 hours ago, Uspshoosier said: Top 16 resumes for me 1. Purdue 2. uconn 3. Houston 4. Zona 5. Marquette 6. Tennessee 7. Kansas 8. North Carolina 9. Iowa St 10. Baylor 11. Bama 12. Auburn 13. Duke 14. Wisky 15. Illinois 16. Clemson San diego St was a 4 seed. Clemson along with Dayton and Creighton were mentioned. No problem with San Diego St over Clemson. Glad they give MWC some respect Quote
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