Bracketology and Team Resumes

[realTomCrean 2,342]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Depends on what this years committee values more.   It changes yearly with the turnover of committee members.  I’ve seen teams get left out with a bunch of Q1 wins and I’ve also seen them left out for having bad losses.  That doesn’t help you sorry but it’s a moving target.  Us that project this has to take clues from the committee revealing their top 16 in February and project from there.  The year IU got  a 4 seed I projected it when most on this board thought 5 of 6 seed and it was because during their top 16 reveal earlier in the year they valued high end road wins for teams.  Ius road win at Xavier that ended up a 3 seed moved IU up some seed lines.  I personally haven’t went back and looked at what this years committee has valued.   I will do that when it gets closer to Sunday 

So a recent win @ Mich St (the best win in B10 conference play) could potentially move us up a seed line, or at least out of Dayton you think?

[Uspshoosier 51,698]

6 minutes ago, realTomCrean said:

So a recent win @ Mich St (the best win in B10 conference play) could potentially move us up a seed line, or at least out of Dayton you think?

Probably not but possible.  That win gets them in the conversation to be out of Dayton however the only other win against the field would be Purdue which is 2 solid wins or if you think a 17-14 Ohio st team is in the field then add 2 more wins.  This is where Oklahoma probably has the advantage over IU in that Oklahoma has at least 6 wins against teams currently safely projected in the field and another over Arkansas.  That would be hard to overlook.  If iu loses to Oregon they will be in the Last 4 in or if enough bid stealers happen they will be out however if they win against Oregon they will be clear of Dayton in my opinion 

[RaceToTheTop 29,157]

13 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

You could argue IU  is already ahead of Oklahoma 

With Oklahoma's non-conference schedule and number of quad 4 games, I would argue that IU should be ahead of them.

To my completely inexperienced eye, this year there seems to be more seperation of who would currently be in compared to who would not be.  The last two in seem to be Xavier and Ohio State.  The three in just ahead of them -- in some order -- are Indiana, Oklahoma San Diego State.  Boise State, North Carolina, and Texas on the first four out list.    The bracket matrix seems to reflect this....in 97 brackets:

Oklahoma is in the tourney in every bracket;  IU and San Diego State are in all but 1.  Xavier makes it in 89 of the 97, Ohio State in 79 of the 97.

Of the teams on the outside, UNC is only in 10 of them, Boise State 8, and Texas 2.

Of the three teams just outside.......UNC's draw was not great in the ACC tournament because they desperately need Q1 wins (they are 1-11).  They would have to win two games before get a Q1 and then it would likely have to beat Duke.

Boise State and San Diego State play each other in the MWC so it's not possible that they both win.

Texas is in the play in games in the SEC tournament and opens against Vanderbilt.  If they win, they play Texas A&M.  My gut says a win over Vanderbilt probably isn't enough, because if they beat Vandy and lose to Texas A&M, their record would only be 18-15.  So I think they would need two wins.

Just my guy, but bid stealers aren't likely to come from the bottle group -- I guess potentially Boise State beats San Diego State and they both get in but at the point I think Boise State is just sneaking in and replacing Xavier or Ohio State but would still be below IU.  Seems the most likely route of bid stealers are going to come from conference champions but there really aren't that many likely ones short of a Georgetwon like winning the Big East tournament ones.  If Memphis doesn't win the American tournament, they someone steals a bid.  If, say Colorado State wins the MWC they could steal a bid for the MWC but that could be at the expense of another MWC team.  I'm not sure VCU would be in the tournament if they lose the A-10 tournament.  Drake would have likely been in even with a loss of the MVC tournament but they held court.

[Uspshoosier 51,698]

1 minute ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I would argue that IU should be ahead of them.

Their 7 wins against the field would be hard to overlook compared to IUs 2 wins or if you count Ohio State 4. 
 

 

[Uspshoosier 51,698]

5 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Their 7 wins against the field would be hard to overlook compared to IUs 2 wins or if you count Ohio State 4. 
 

 

Also for me their non sos are basically the same so I would give the edge to Oklahoma over IU at this point in time 

Non con Sos 

Oklahoma-160

Iu-161