Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Jeff Flabjohns]

B1G!

[Golfman25]

6 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

They could win at UCLA and then lose 9 straight.  UCLA game is just 1 piece of the puzzle.  People thought they should have won at Minny and they lost.  People thought they would lose to Purdue and they won.    IU is bubble team that will have plenty of opportunities to play themselves off the bubble or play themselves out of consideration 

No chit.  Got to win games.  But if you don't get by UCLA and USC the odds start to decline dramatically.   Would have been extremely helpful to beat Minny and Iowa, but here we are.   

[Golfman25]

3 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

I get it.   Most on here only care about IU results and think IU games are played in a vacuum.  They could care less what other bubble teams are doing throughout the year.   Fans of teams  normally hang on to each result like it’s life or death.  My lens is through the eyes of a bracketologist instead of a fan.   32 pieces of the puzzle to get the whole picture.   Looking forward to seeing if they take advantage of the opportunities that will be in front of them 

Sure but does it really matter what the other "bubble" teams are doing?  We have to be, what, top half of Big10?  So 9th or 10th.  Well to do that we need to beat teams around us like:  Minny (missed 1), USC (TBD), Iowa (miss), Ohio State (TBD).  Wins against those programs move us up 1 and them down 1.  Make no mistake, this west coast trip is vital to our future.  We can't lose and expect things to fall in place.  And that is because we missed against Minny and Iowa, and to a lesser extent, we let Nebraska get away from us.  

[Uspshoosier]

1 minute ago, Golfman25 said:

Sure but does it really matter what the other "bubble" teams are doing? 

Yes 

[Golfman25]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

 You counting Sparty at home in the 5?  Rutgers had them beat at home.   I personally look at the Sparty home game as a game where IU has a chance to to win 

And monkeys may fly out of my butt.  :)  

[Uspshoosier]

2 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

Wins against those programs move us up 1 and them down 1

Total body of work not just how you finish in the B1G standings.   I’ve seen teams that finished lower then a team in the B1G standings make it in over the team that finished higher then them in the B1G 

[RaceToTheTop]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

Total body of work not just how you finish in the B1G standings.   I’ve seen teams that finished lower then a team in the B1G standings make it in over the team that finished higher then them in the B1G 

I believe Nebraska went 12-8 in the big ten one year and missed the tourney.

[Uspshoosier]

3 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

And monkeys may fly out of my butt.  :)  

IU had crappier teams that won on the road at Sparty.    It’s basketball anything can happen and it usually does 

[Uspshoosier]

Just now, RaceToTheTop said:

I believe Nebraska went 12-8 in the big ten one year and missed the tourney.

13-5 and missed the tourney 

[Golfman25]

1 minute ago, Uspshoosier said:

Total body of work not just how you finish in the B1G standings.   I’ve seen teams that finished lower then a team in the B1G standings make it in over the team that finished higher then them in the B1G 

But there is nothing in our "body of work" that suggests we should get in over any other joe lunch bucket team.  That's why, IMO, beating UCLA is a big one.  Followed up by beating USC.  The rest is just noise.  

[Golfman25]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

IU had crappier teams that won on the road at Sparty.    It’s basketball anything can happen and it usually does 

Yeah, I get it -- "on any given Sunday."  But we have to face reality.  Win now, and our chances become that much easier.  Lose now, and that fat lady is warming up.  

[Uspshoosier]

1 minute ago, Golfman25 said:

Win now, and our chances become that much easier.

 Big if true 

[Shooter]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

 You counting Sparty at home in the 5?  Rutgers had them beat at home.   I personally look at the Sparty home game as a game where IU has a chance to to win 

Yes, I agree. @ UCLA, @ USC, vs Wisc, vs MSU, and @ OSU are the 5 swing games. Need to get 2 or 3 of them

[Uspshoosier]

1 minute ago, Golfman25 said:

But we have to face reality

I don’t have to face reality.   They either  take advantage of their opportunities in LA or they don’t.   If they do then they will still have to finish out the rest of the games and hope their body of work is enough or if they lose both they will have to win enough and hope their body of work is enough 

[Golfman25]

7 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

13-5 and missed the tourney 

Yeah, but by my count, only 4 Big 10 teams got in that year.  Nebraska got jobbed.   We won't be anywhere close to top 4/5.  

[Shooter]

1 hour ago, Stuhoo said:

Seven or eight; we have about the same chance of beating MSU at home as Minny has of beating us, for instance.

Predictive metrics see it differently. MSU at home, Kenpom gives us 37% chance to win. Torvik says 50%.

Minnesota game, Kenpom gives the Gophers a 19% chance to win. Torvik 16%.

I'm not taking these numbers as gospel but I like them as a rough estimate.

Vs Minn, NU, Oregon and @ Illinois and Purdue are more like 80/20 or 20/80 games based on the metrics. Not locks obviously, but it would be pretty surprising if more than 1 of them went differently than we expect it to.

[Golfman25]

4 minutes ago, Shooter said:

Yes, I agree. @ UCLA, @ USC, vs Wisc, vs MSU, and @ OSU are the 5 swing games. Need to get 2 or 3 of them

So show me the 3.  Why I am saying UCLA and USC are ultra important.  

[Shooter]

1 minute ago, Golfman25 said:

So show me the 3.  Why I am saying UCLA and USC are ultra important.  

I said it earlier. Clearest path is split in LA, beat Wisconsin at home. Then you have the last two as chances to seal it.

Just make the damn tourney this year, and next year let's please be discussing potential seeds at this time of year instead of the bubble again.

[Uspshoosier]

1 minute ago, Golfman25 said:

Yeah, but by my count, only 4 Big 10 teams got in that year.  Nebraska got jobbed.   We won't be anywhere close to top 4/5.  

Michigan finished 11-9 above Penn State 10-10 in the B1G a couple years back.   Michigan played in the NIT and Penn State made the tourney.   Total body of work 

[Golfman25]

4 minutes ago, Shooter said:

I said it earlier. Clearest path is split in LA, beat Wisconsin at home. Then you have the last two as chances to seal it.

Just make the damn tourney this year, and next year let's please be discussing potential seeds at this time of year instead of the bubble again.

Yeah, I would rather "seal it" by beating Wisconsin at home.  The other two would just be gravy.  :)