Can the Hoosiers go dancing?

[Uspshoosier 49,270]

IU lost 11 of 12 and that took pretty much the whole losing streak to drop them below 50 Iowa won’t get hit hard for losing on the road. Rutgers loss will hurt but not enough to fall below 50

 

 

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[Uspshoosier 49,270]

they lost earlier this week, and they just had a bad home Q3 loss to Rutgers today, so they will drop. they play @Wisconsin and @Nebraska. They'll lose one, maybe both. They could possibly have 4 straight losses. Is 33 to 51 that big of a drop considering? honestly i don't now the weights of losses with NET, but in any other poll, 3-4 straight losses could easily mean a 17 spot drop.
and, we could just as easily end up playing OSU or MN instead of Iowa in that spot.

Those would still be games against teams with a better NET ranking then IU and if IU beat them would be wins against other bubble teams. IU could play penn st or Nebraska and that would be a Quad 1 game


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[HoosierAloha 30,091]

they lost earlier this week, and they just had a bad home Q3 loss to Rutgers today, so they will drop. they play @Wisconsin and @Nebraska. They'll lose one, maybe both. They could possibly have 4 straight losses. Is 33 to 51 that big of a drop considering? honestly i don't now the weights of losses with NET, but in any other poll, 3-4 straight losses could easily mean a 17 spot drop.
and, we could just as easily end up playing OSU or MN instead of Iowa in that spot.

They were at 33 before today’s loss at home to Rutgers. I could see that dropping them a bit. To be honest, I haven’t tracked that well enough this season. I can’t see it dropping them a ton. At Nebraska and at Wisconsin are both quad 1 games so if they lose those I don’t think that drops them that far. If they split they’ll easily stay in the top 50.

I don’t think it’s possible for IU to win the next two regular season games and play on the first day of the BTT but that wouldn’t be terrible, if possible. A win over Northwestern with us as the 11 seed and Northwestern as the 14 seed, then a game against an Iowa or Wisconsin would be a good path to getting to 19 wins, with another quad 1 win.


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[Southside 1,914]

2 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

They were at 33 before today’s loss at home to Rutgers. I could see that dropping them a bit. To be honest, I haven’t tracked that well enough this season. I can’t see it dropping them a ton. At Nebraska and at Wisconsin are both quad 1 games so if they lose those I don’t think that drops them that far. If they split they’ll easily stay in the top 50.

I don’t think it’s possible for IU to win the next two regular season games and play on the first day of the BTT but that wouldn’t be terrible, if possible. A win over Northwestern with us as the 11 seed and Northwestern as the 14 seed, then a game against an Iowa or Wisconsin would be a good path to getting to 19 wins, with another quad 1 win.


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i think we would want to play on day 1 of the BTT. we do play the 2 teams immediately ahead of us. playing day two would pit us vs OSU or MN as it stands right now. Then vs MSU or PU. if we need to get to 19 (that was other's magic number not mine), then starting day 2 is a more difficult road. 

beating IL, means we swept them, so we'd own the tie break. beating rutgers would mean split (not sure how tie breakers work).

[JaybobHoosier 12,338]

As much as I would love for our Hoosiers to go dancing, I only see us in the NIT. I’m still very hopefully because when the team plays like this they can compete with anyone.

I think IU wins against Rutgers and one more in the BTT, but I don’t think we will win at Illinois. Hate saying that, but Illinois is just a bad matchup for us ImO. We can be a very careless team, and if we don’t play focused, we will have 20+ turnovers.

I’m hoping for the best, just expecting the NIT. Regardless, I’m just so happy to watch some actually good IU basketball!


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[Brass Cannon 25,159]

19 minutes ago, JaybobHoosier said:

As much as I would love for our Hoosiers to go dancing, I only see us in the NIT. I’m still very hopefully because when the team plays like this they can compete with anyone.

I think IU wins against Rutgers and one more in the BTT, but I don’t think we will win at Illinois. Hate saying that, but Illinois is just a bad matchup for us ImO. We can be a very careless team, and if we don’t play focused, we will have 20+ turnovers.

I’m hoping for the best, just expecting the NIT. Regardless, I’m just so happy to watch some actually good IU basketball!


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The second half today was one great half of basketball. 

[HoosierAloha 30,091]

i think we would want to play on day 1 of the BTT. we do play the 2 teams immediately ahead of us. playing day two would pit us vs OSU or MN as it stands right now. Then vs MSU or PU. if we need to get to 19 (that was other's magic number not mine), then starting day 2 is a more difficult road. 
beating IL, means we swept them, so we'd own the tie break. beating rutgers would mean split (not sure how tie breakers work).

Agreed, although beating an O$U or Minn with them also on the bubble would only help us. Another quad 1 against MSU or pu would be great too but we’d have to win.


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[Southside 1,914]

so here's the stack based on current NET ranking (does not include our MSU win). The MSU win by itself likely would not put us past the current cut line. I need to look at the future opponents of those ahead of us. Regardless, I still think we need some help. It's also likely that we won't start day one in the CC, which would make it harder to attain 4 more wins, but would help with NET, and potentially H2H win over competing bubble teams.

Anyway, gives you a good idea of who to cheer against.

32 Auto Bids (Team / Current NET Rating)
----------------
WCC Gonzaga 1
ACC Virginia 2
AAC Houston 4
SEC Kentucky 5
B10 MSU 6
B12 TTU 10
MAC Buf 16 (spoiler if they lose CC)
CoCon Wofford 18 (spoiler if they lose CC)
MWC Nevada 19 (spoiler if they lose CC)
BigE Marquette 21 
A10 VCU 37
OVC Belmont 45 (possible spoiler if they lose CC)
ASUN Lipscomb 46 (Possible spoiler if they lose CC)
WAC New Mex St 51

Note - I stopped auto bids at smaller conferences post NET 58, as there would not be a potential spoiler

36 At Large (Team / current NET rating)
------------------------------------------------
Duke 3
TN 7
NC 8
MI 9
VT 11
PU 12
LSU 13
ISU 14
Wisc 15
KS 17
MissSt 20
Cinci 22
FSU 23
Aub 24
Lou 25
Maryland 26
Vil 27
KSU 28
FL 29
UCF 30
NC St 31
WA 32
Iowa 33
Utah St 34
Baylor 35
TX 36
Ole Miss 38
St Mary's 39
OSU 40
Clem 41
OK 42
TCU 43
Syracuse 44
Fruman 47
Nebraska 48
Bama 49
--------------cut line-----------------
PSU 50
Murry St 52
Memphis 53
Butler 54
MN 55
Creighton 56
Temple 57
INDIANA 58

IU Future opponents 
-----------------------------------
IL 94
Rutgers 104
 

 

[Brass Cannon 25,159]

4 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

so here's the stack based on current NET ranking (does not include our MSU win). The MSU win by itself likely would not put us past the current cut line. I need to look at the future opponents of those ahead of us. Regardless, I still think we need some help. It's also likely that we won't start day one in the CC, which would make it harder to attain 4 more wins, but would help with NET, and potentially H2H win over competing bubble teams.

Anyway, gives you a good idea of who to cheer against.

32 Auto Bids (Team / Current NET Rating)
----------------
WCC Gonzaga 1
ACC Virginia 2
AAC Houston 4
SEC Kentucky 5
B10 MSU 6
B12 TTU 10
MAC Buf 16 (spoiler if they lose CC)
CoCon Wofford 18 (spoiler if they lose CC)
MWC Nevada 19 (spoiler if they lose CC)
BigE Marquette 21 
A10 VCU 37
OVC Belmont 45 (possible spoiler if they lose CC)
ASUN Lipscomb 46 (Possible spoiler if they lose CC)
WAC New Mex St 51

Note - I stopped auto bids at smaller conferences post NET 58, as there would not be a potential spoiler

36 At Large (Team / current NET rating)
------------------------------------------------
Duke 3
TN 7
NC 8
MI 9
VT 11
PU 12
LSU 13
ISU 14
Wisc 15
KS 17
MissSt 20
Cinci 22
FSU 23
Aub 24
Lou 25
Maryland 26
Vil 27
KSU 28
FL 29
UCF 30
NC St 31
WA 32
Iowa 33
Utah St 34
Baylor 35
TX 36
Ole Miss 38
St Mary's 39
OSU 40
Clem 41
OK 42
TCU 43
Syracuse 44
Fruman 47
Nebraska 48
Bama 49
--------------cut line-----------------
PSU 50
Murry St 52
Memphis 53
Butler 54
MN 55
Creighton 56
Temple 57
INDIANA 58

IU Future opponents 
-----------------------------------
IL 94
Rutgers 104
 

 

That’s not really how the net works

[Southside 1,914]

28 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

That’s not really how the net works

The ratings I used are NET rankng/ratings.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

There are 32 auto bids. Then 36 at large are selected. The committee uses NET as a tool to select the 36 at large. NET is not the end all be all (it's not auto), but it's suppose to be the guiding tool. I've listed what would likely be the 36 at large teams as of yesterday's NET ratings. I also listed likely auto bids (they have to play the CC), and also potential conferences where we could see spoilers (leagues that should only get one, but could get 2) that would hurt IU's chances.

Do you argue just to argue?

Edited March 3, 2019 by Irish YJ

[Hoosierfan222 734]

3 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

kenpom has our non conference sos as 196th (last column)

https://kenpom.com/

3 additional in-conference games does pretty much nothing, or nothing to non conference SOS.

Non conference SOS doesn’t matter. Total strength of schedule matters. No one is going to dock you for a weak OOC that includes games against Marquette, Louisville, Butler, And Duke when your total schedule SOS is top 5 in the nation.

[Southside 1,914]

4 minutes ago, Hoosierfan222 said:

Non conference SOS doesn’t matter. Total strength of schedule matters. No one is going to dock you for a weak OOC that includes games against Marquette, Louisville, Butler, And Duke when your total schedule SOS is top 5 in the nation.

The committee looks at conf record, overall record, overall SoS, non-conf SoS, and NET. a conference record of 6-12 and a non-conf SoS of 196 are just two indicators. They will be points of discussion. To say they mean nothing is silly.

[HoosierAloha 30,091]

The committee looks at conf record, overall record, overall SoS, non-conf SoS, and NET. a conference record of 6-12 and a non-conf SoS of 196 are just two indicators. They will be points of discussion. To say they mean nothing is silly.

As has been discussed over and over the committee doesn’t look at conference records...


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[Southside 1,914]

10 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

As has been discussed over and over the committee doesn’t look at conference records...


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here's straight from the NCAA site....

i also forgot to mention road record ( which is 2-9). in addition, they use team sheets which use other rating/ranking systems (outside of net) which factor in conf and non conf records. it's listed in the below url.

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections

Selection Criteria

The NCAA Evaluation Tool, known as the NET, is in its first year of existence and is one of many factors used by NCAA sports committees when evaluating team selection, seeding and bracketing.

The components of the NET include the Team Value Index, which is based on game results and factors game location, the opponent and outcome, as well as net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and a capped scoring margin.

Other criteria the committee considers in the selections process:

• An extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and regional advisory committee rankings.
• Complete box scores and results.
• Head-to-head results and results versus common opponents.
• Imbalanced conference schedules and results.
• Overall and nonconference strength of schedule.
• The quality of wins and losses.
• Road record.
• Player and coach availability.
• Various computer metrics.

Edited March 3, 2019 by Irish YJ

[Brass Cannon 25,159]

7 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

here's straight from the NCAA site....

i also forgot to mention road record ( which is 2-9). in addition, they use team sheets which use other rating/ranking systems (outside of net) which factor in conf and non conf records. it's listed in the below url.

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections

Selection Criteria

The NCAA Evaluation Tool, known as the NET, is in its first year of existence and is one of many factors used by NCAA sports committees when evaluating team selection, seeding and bracketing.

The components of the NET include the Team Value Index, which is based on game results and factors game location, the opponent and outcome, as well as net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and a capped scoring margin.

Other criteria the committee considers in the selections process:

• An extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and regional advisory committee rankings.
• Complete box scores and results.
• Head-to-head results and results versus common opponents.
• Imbalanced conference schedules and results.
• Overall and nonconference strength of schedule.
• The quality of wins and losses.
• Road record.
• Player and coach availability.
• Various computer metrics.

Exactly they look at both they aren’t going to care if you have a weak non con if overall you had the 4th in the nation. They are looking for teams with a weak conference schedule who try to sneak into the tourney with a 27-4 record by not playing anybody in the non con

And if they look at player availability that’s a huge bonus for us also

[Uspshoosier 49,270]

The committee looks at conf record, overall record, overall SoS, non-conf SoS, and NET. a conference record of 6-12 and a non-conf SoS of 196 are just two indicators. They will be points of discussion. To say they mean nothing is silly.

Committee doesn’t look at conference record. Conference record isn’t even on the individual team sheets. During my mock selection at the NCAA they repeatedly told people in the room that the overall record and total body of work is what to focus on. They don’t even put teams conference record on the team sheets


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[Southside 1,914]

35 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

Exactly they look at both they aren’t going to care if you have a weak non con if overall you had the 4th in the nation. They are looking for teams with a weak conference schedule who try to sneak into the tourney with a 27-4 record by not playing anybody in the non con

And if they look at player availability that’s a huge bonus for us also

there's plenty of good in categories. there's also plenty of bad. you can't just ignore all the bad for the good. we have a very unique resume. it will be interesting. we need some help from others (losing ahead of us in NET), and we need as few spoilers (from typcial one team conferences) as we can get.

[Southside 1,914]

10 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Committee doesn’t look at conference record. Conference record isn’t even on the individual team sheets. During my mock selection at the NCAA they repeatedly told people in the room that the overall record and total body of work is what to focus on. They don’t even put teams conference record on the team sheets


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KPI is on the Team sheets. And doesn't KPI use conf record on their report? 

Not sure about the others, but I'm guessing the "various computer metrics" that they include (last bullet), some use/include conf stats.

In short, even though "conf w-l" is not an official indicator, it's like asking a juror to ignore evidence thrown out on a technicality. if you see the defendant commit a murder on video, do you really ignore it when the judge tells you to throw it out? do you think the jury doesn't discuss it when behind closed doors?

[Uspshoosier 49,270]

KPI is on the Team sheets. And doesn't KPI use conf record on their report? 
Not sure about the others, but I'm guessing the "various computer metrics" that they include (last bullet), some use/include conf stats.
In short, even though "conf w-l" is not an official indicator, it's like asking a juror to ignore evidence thrown out on a technicality. if you see the defendant commit a murder on video, do you really ignore it when the judge tells you to throw it out? do you think the jury doesn't discuss it when behind closed doors?

Depends on what the individual committee member feels is more important to them while discussing the team in question. Maybe some members hold conference record more important then others and value it while they are discussing teams I’m just saying in my experience of going through the process that when we were discussing teams conference record wasn’t brought up 1 time. Since their isn’t a set criteria that every member has to follow opinions are going to be all over the place. Ken Pom wasn’t ever a set tool that the committee used however over the years each member started to use advanced metrics in their decisions even though it wasn’t required for the members to use. To answer your question I’m sure still look at conference records individually it’s just not a requirement


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[Southside 1,914]

28 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Depends on what the individual committee member feels is more important to them while discussing the team in question. Maybe some members hold conference record more important then others and value it while they are discussing teams I’m just saying in my experience of going through the process that when we were discussing teams conference record wasn’t brought up 1 time. Since their isn’t a set criteria that every member has to follow opinions are going to be all over the place. Ken Pom wasn’t ever a set tool that the committee used however over the years each member started to use advanced metrics in their decisions even though it wasn’t required for the members to use. To answer your question I’m sure still look at conference records individually it’s just not a requirement

yup, agree. and thanks for the insight. I'd prefer they just create a formula and let the computer's spit something out. wherever humans play, you're going to end up with a mixed bag of personal criteria, and potential bias. and to have a small 10 person committee, especially with a KY AD, just gives me the shivers.

3 minutes ago, Joe DeLow said:

Wouldn’t it just be human nature though to see a conference record and question “WTH?” Like with Indiana going 8-12 in conference. People in that room likely watched. And the eye test will hurt Indiana because they had such a long stretch where they were just awful. Or if teams are really close and you have to split hairs somewhere maybe? Conference is obviously important. Could it help a team like South Carolina? They may not have them on their sheets but I’m sure they know anyways and have it to the side when it comes down to it. I think everyone here can agree that even a team like Oklahoma doesn’t deserve to be in if they lose their last two games and same for TCU. And both would be 17-13 overall but 6-12 in conference. Conference record is something that should be very important when you looking at resumes of teams in the BE, B1G, B12, SEC, ACC and Pac12. Look at how much it helped us in 2016.

There definitely will be some of those WTH moments, but hoping they stick to script/criteria as much as possible. i'm more concerned with what some of the other teams do that are slightly ahead of us in NET. And every bubble team needs to worry about small conference championships where a team ranked high in NET, get's upset by a crap team who takes an auto bid.