Analysis: The hunt for a 4-0 start

The race is about to begin for Indiana football.

It’s a race to win all four non-conference football games and position you to move a step closer to that elusive bowl game.

In less than a month, IU will open the 2015 season with a home game against Southern Illinois.

Should be an easy win, right? Indiana should dominate play on both sides of the ball and easily get to 1-0, right?

Well, not so fast. The non-conference season has never been particularly friendly to the Hoosiers. Going through IU’s schedule in your head and circling non-conference victories may seem like the thing to do but more often than not it has led to disappointment.

Remember last year when you thought realistically Indiana would probably go 3-1 in the non-conference season, beating up on three cupcakes and losing to Missouri? But the Hoosiers actually won at Missouri, scoring a stunning upset. Too bad IU had lost at Bowling Green the week before. The 3-1 record happened but not as anyone would have predicted.

How about 2013 when IU finished 5-7 and actually won three Big Ten games against Penn State, Illinois and Purdue? But IU went 2-2 in non-conference play losing home games against Navy and Missouri.

Even the year before that in 2012, a 4-0 non-conference record would have made for bowl eligibility in Kevin Wilson’s second year with the Hoosiers. But IU lost to Ball State and Navy that season and finished 4-8.

No, the road to a perfect non-conference and had plenty of pot holes over the years for Indiana football.

And yet with a 2015 schedule that includes Southern Illinois, Florida International, Western Kentucky and Wake Forest, you can bet that there are a lot of IU fans that are thinking the Hoosiers could easily be 4-0 by the time Ohio State comes to Bloomington to play before what will likely be a capacity crowd in Memorial Stadium (albeit a lot of scarlet and gray) on Saturday, Oct. 3.

But there are no sure things when it comes to non-conference football opponents and Indiana. Think Southern Illinois will be a cakewalk? I’m sure IU thought so the last time Southern Illinois was in town. It was Terry Hoeppner’s second season in Bloomington and he actually missed the game because of health issues. He snuck into the press box and watched the game against doctor’s orders. As it turned out, he probably wished he would have stayed home.

Indiana lost to Southern Illinois in that 2006 game, 35-28.

It’s a sad reminder to Indiana fans that even though the schedule may be filled with teams you think you’re supposed to be able to beat that doesn’t mean it will turn out that way.

And yet, as IU looks ahead this season at a schedule that also includes Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan and Maryland to name a few, you have to think a 4-0 start will be nearly imperative if the Hoosiers hope to increase their chances at bowl eligibility.

For as long as I can remember, the magic formula for Indiana football to get to postseason eligibility has been simple: Go 4-0 in the non-conference season and 2-6 in the Big Ten.

Do that, and at 6-6, with as many bowl spots the Big Ten has locked up, chances are your team will be playing in the postseason.

Sounds simple enough, right?

For Indiana, however, it has been anything but simple. In fact, it has been nearly impossible.

In the last 20 seasons, dating back to 1995, Indiana has gone unbeaten in the non-conference portion of the schedule three times: In 2007 and again in 2010 under Bill Lynch IU went a perfect 4-0. In 2007, the Hoosiers were able to work that formula successfully and get bowl eligible.

The other time was 2005 when the Hoosiers opened 3-0 in Terry Hoeppner’s first season in Bloomington.

But that’s it. The other 17 years, Indiana fell short against a less than prominent non-conference schedule. In fact, only two times in those 17 years did IU go 3-1. The other years were two wins or less.

Overall in the last 20 seasons, Indiana’s record in preconference play has been 42-30. Wilson’s teams are 8-8 in four seasons. Lynch’s teams were an impressive 13-3. Hep’s two teams in 2005 and 2006 were 5-2. Gerry DiNardo’s teams were 5-6 including a big road win at Oregon. Cam Cameron’s squads were 7-9 and that was with Antwaan Randle El at the QB helm four of those years.

It would be interesting to look at schools like Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin and teams like that and see what their record is for the last 20 years.

It would certainly put IU’s misfortunes into proper perspective.

With all of that information as ammunition, and still with a month to go before the regular season starts against the Salukis, what are your expectations for IU’s non-conference record in 2015?

And if the Hoosiers don’t go 4-0 in non-conference play, what do you think their chances are to earn bowl eligibility?

It’s really early but I love making prognostications. And I think IU could technically go 3-1 in non-conference play and still find three Big Ten wins. The three that come to mind are Rutgers, Iowa and Purdue. But again, a lot has to happen before any of that can even become a dream. Remember last year, had you made those same remarks, all three of those games would have been in the second half of the season – after Nate Sudfeld had gone down with his injury.

But it’s still a good conversation starter for this time of the year: What do you think IU’s non-conference football record will be in 2015?

@IndySportsHutch