Playoff Possibilities

[BottomLine]

The time has come to start sorting the wheat from the chaff with regard to this years football playoffs. At present there are probably 22 teams looking to make the final cut of 12. Here are the contenders based on the following criteria.

 

1. James Madison, there is NO WAY they don't finish the regular season 12-0 so they are probably in.

2. Nobody gets into playoffs with 2 or more losses unless they play in a conference championship game.

3. So here are all the the present contenders with 0 or 1 losses.

4. Of course if you are a special “name brand” school the rules may not apply to you.

 

Independent

Notre Dame 6-1 If they lose to Miami they could be out

 

Big 10 Possibility that a 1 loss teams from Big 10 might not make playoffs

UCLA 6-0 Only have one game left against top of conference – USC

OSU 6-1 Remaining schedule is mostly against top tier Big10 teams

INDIANA 6-1 Needs OSU or UCLA to lose 2 to make championship game

USC 6-1

IOWA 5-1

NORTHWESTERN 5-1

 

SEC Doubtful that there will be any 1 loss teams from SEC

GEORGIA 6-1

KENTUCKY 6-1

TENNESSEE 6-1

OLE MISS 5-1

 

ACC

MIAMI 6-0

WAKE FOREST 6-1

SMU 5-1

 

BIG 12

BYU 6-0

TEXAS TECH 6-0

UTAH 6-0

HOUSTON 6-1

ARIZONA 5-1

 

AMERICAN

UTSA 6-1

 

MOUNTAIN WEST

NORTH DAKOTA ST 6-1

AIR FORCE 5-1

NEW MEXICO 5-1

 

SUN BELT

JAMES MADISON 7-0

 

PAC 12

BOISE STATE 5-1

 

 

 

[AH1971]

There's going to be a 9-3 SEC team that gets in over a 10-2 Big 12 team

[Home Jersey]

42 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

There's going to be a 9-3 SEC team that gets in over a 10-2 PAC 12 team

Which is probably fine? IMO

[KingPG21]

1 hour ago, AH1971 said:

There's going to be a 9-3 SEC team that gets in over a 10-2 PAC 12 team

?? The Pac 12 is not one of the P4 conferences. So yes this probably wiill at some point, and should happen

[AH1971]

3 minutes ago, KingPG21 said:

?? The Pac 12 is not one of the P4 conferences. So yes this probably wiill at some point, and should happen

Sorry meant B12

[BottomLine]

Add Liberty to the list of 0 and 1 loss teams, bringing the total to 24.

Here is the list of teams with 2 losses.  I don't think any 3 loss teams will make a 12 team playoff, so these are the bubble teams. One more loss for any of them and they are toast.  Some of the lower conference teams, though still on this list, realistically have no chance of being selected.

With most teams having played 6 games we are half way through the season.  Add the 35  2 loss teams to the mix and we are down to 59 possibilities for 12 spots.  Basically the 2 loss teams need to win out and pray for upsets to the first list, strength of schedule, and luck.

ALL 2 LOSS TEAMS

N Texas 4-2

Army   4-2

Memphis   5-2

Florida Atlantic   4-2

S Florida   5-2

Clemson   4-2

N Carolina   4-2

Pitt   5-2

Va Tech   5-2

Duke   4-2

Baylor   4-2

OK St   4-2

Cincinnati   4-2

Kansas St   4-2

Minnesota   4-2

Oregon   4-2

Wisconsin   4-2

Nebraska   5-2

Michigan   4-2

Jacksonville St   5-2

Ohio U   5-2

W Michigan   5-2

Toledo   4-2

Oregon St   5-2

Alabama   5-2

Florida   5-2

LSU   5-2

Miss St   4-2

Missouri   5-2

Auburn   4-2

Texas   4-2

App St   4-2

Georgia St   4-2

Louisiana Tech   4-2

Louisiana U   5-2

 

[tyappleg]

On 10/21/2026 at 10:07 PM, BottomLine said:

 

1. James Madison, there is NO WAY they don't finish the regular season 12-0 so they are probably in.

 

Aged like milk.  Only took 1 day. 

[AH1971]

17 hours ago, BottomLine said:

Add Liberty to the list of 0 and 1 loss teams, bringing the total to 24.

Here is the list of teams with 2 losses.  I don't think any 3 loss teams will make a 12 team playoff, so these are the bubble teams. One more loss for any of them and they are toast.  Some of the lower conference teams, though still on this list, realistically have no chance of being selected.

JoinLeagues

 

With most teams having played 6 games we are half way through the season.  Add the 35  2 loss teams to the mix and we are down to 59 possibilities for 12 spots.  Basically the 2 loss teams need to win out and pray for upsets to the first list, strength of schedule, and luck.

ALL 2 LOSS TEAMS

N Texas 4-2

Army   4-2

Memphis   5-2

Florida Atlantic   4-2

S Florida   5-2

Clemson   4-2

N Carolina   4-2

Pitt   5-2

Va Tech   5-2

Duke   4-2

Baylor   4-2

OK St   4-2

Cincinnati   4-2

Kansas St   4-2

Minnesota   4-2

Oregon   4-2

Wisconsin   4-2

Nebraska   5-2

Michigan   4-2

Jacksonville St   5-2

Ohio U   5-2

W Michigan   5-2

Toledo   4-2

Oregon St   5-2

Alabama   5-2

Florida   5-2

LSU   5-2

Miss St   4-2

Missouri   5-2

Auburn   4-2

Texas   4-2

App St   4-2

Georgia St   4-2

Louisiana Tech   4-2

Louisiana U   5-2

 

If you're not in the B10 or SEC, you're not getting in with 2 losses this year unless that 2nd loss is in the conference championship and you were soundly in before (looking at a team like BYU).

There is a roundabout chance Georgia is the only SEC team with 2 or fewer losses once the season is over. ZERO chance the committee only takes 1 SEC team.

[BottomLine]

Here is the updated list of CFB contenders for the 2026-7 playoffs. We are looking for the top 11 power conference teams and 1 non-power conference team.

 

Zero loss teams. If they can stay undefeated they are locks.

• UCLA 7-0

• Miami 7-0

• Utah 7-0

 

1 loss teams. The chief contenders. Win out and they should be considered prime prospects.

• Indiana 7-1

• Kentucky 7-1

• UTSA 7-1

• James Madison 7-1

• Notre Dame 6-1

• Ohio St 6-1

• Northwestern 6-1

• Georgia 6-1

• Wake Forest 6-1

• SMU 6-1

• BYU 6-1

• Tex Tech 6-1

• Arizona 6-1

• New Mexico 6-1

• Boise St 6-1

• Liberty 6-1

 

2 loss teams: These are the bubble teams. To fight their way back into contention they need to win out. The third loss is the kiss of death unless there are party to special circumstances.

• N Texas 5-2

• Army 5-2

• Memphis 6-2

• Fla Atl 5-2

• S Fla 5-2

• Va Tech 6-2

• Duke 5-2

• Okla St 5-2

• Cincy 5-2

• Minn 5-2

• Wisc 5-2

• Neb 5-2

• Jax St 5-2

• Ohio U 6-2

• Toledo 6-2

• Ore St 5-2

• Ala 6-2

• Fla 5-2

• LSU 6-2

• Mo 5-2

• Texas 5-2

• App St 5-2

• La Tech 5-2

The following schools joined the 2 loss list this week:

• Houston 6-2

• USC 6-2

• Iowa 5-2

• ND St 6-2

• Air Force 5-2

• Ole Miss 5-2

• Tenn 6-2

 

Nobody wants burnt toast. Lose 3 games and you are toast and your chances of playing for the championship at the end of the year are almost impossible, unless there are special circumstances. Here are the new Burnt Toast Rejects:

 

Clemson, North Carolina, Pitt, Baylor, Kansas St, Oregon, Michigan, USC, Iowa,

W Michigan, Miss St, Auburn, Georgia St, and Louisiana U