Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier]

3 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

What do you have Creighton because diving deeper into their resume it’s not as good as some probably think 

I mean it’s still good but for some bracketologist I think they have them a seed line to high 

[Uspshoosier]

1 minute ago, brumdog45 said:

I have them as a 7 (#26 overall).  I had them dropping 6 spots today from 20 to 26 after their loss to Georgetown.

Agree it looks like a 7 to me 

[RaceToTheTop]

Oregon State steals a spot.

[Uspshoosier]

One of the things I’m looking forward to is to see who is the last team in the field this year.   Because in a normal year they would of not made it in.  They can thank the Ivy League for not playing this year 

[RaceToTheTop]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Agree it looks like a 7 to me 

As a 7,they'll likely be on a lot of people's bracket as a first round loss.  Really inconsistent.

[RaceToTheTop]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

One of the things I’m looking forward to is to see who is the last team in the field this year.   Because in a normal year they would of not made it in.  They can thank the Ivy League for not playing this year 

My last team in right now after Oregon State's win is Syracuse.  Bracket matrix had them as the last team in entering today but with Georgetown and Oregon State winning, I think they have the last team in as Drake.  Drake is safe on my list -- 11 seed with 5 at large teams below them.

[RaceToTheTop]

Have finished my final rankings through today's games (am assuming UCSB hangs on to beat UC Irvine...up 14 with 3 1/2 minutes left).  Based solely on what I have for the adjusted NET (will be nothing as accurate as USPS as I now he looks at items the committee considers that I don't), here is what I have (also note that I did not change points based on teams that might have switched quad value between Friday's end and Saturday's end).  My numbers are based more on what I think teams should be seeded based solely on how I weight wins/losses, not on where I think they will be seeded:

1 seeds:  Illinois, Gonzaga, Michigan, Baylor.  Note that if Illinois were to lose to Ohio State tomorrow, they would still retain a 1 seed in my ranking.

2 seeds:  Alabama, Ohio State, Texas, Iowa.  Note that Alabama and Ohio State, win or lose on Sunday, stay as a 2 seed.

3 seeds:  Oklahoma State, Purdue, Arkansas, West Virginia

4 seeds:  Missouri, Kansas, Villanova, Virginia

5 seeds:  BYU, San Diego State, USC, Houston.

6 seeds:  LSU, Clemson, Tennessee, St. Bonaventure.  If LSU were to beat Alabama, they would move to a 5 seed in my system and Houston would drop to 6.  Yes, my system is not impressed with Houston's resume.

7 seeds:  Rutgers, Creighton, Florida, Florida State.

8 seeds:  UConn, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Oregon.

9 seeds:  VCU, Loyala (Chi), Georgia Tech, Colorado.

10 seeds: Michigan State, Louisville, Wichita State, Maryland

11 seeds:  Colgate, Drake, Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, UCLA.  Note that if Colgate loses the Patriot league title game, their ranking would drop them out of a potential at large bid and out of the tournament;  if Loyala (Maryland) beats them, Loyala would be the lowest rated 16 seed.   Texas Tech and UCLA, as two of the lowest four at larges, would be in a play in game.

12 seeds: Oklahoma, UC Santa Barbara, Syracuse, Georgetown, Winthrop.  Oklahoma and Syracuse, as the lowest two at large bids, are in a play in.

13 seeds:  Oregon State, Abilene Christian, Ohio, Morehead State.

14 seeds:  UNC Greensboro, North Texas, Liberty, Eastern Washington.

15 seeds:  Cleveland State, Texas Southern, Oral Roberts, Hartford.

16 seeds:   Grand Canyon, Drexel, Iona, Norfolk State, Mt. St. Mary's, Appalachian State.  As the lowest 16 seeds, Iona plays Appalachian State and Norfolk State plays Mt. St. Mary's.

If Cincinnati were to beat Houston, then Houston still remains a 5 seed unless LSU beats Alabama, in which case Houston drops to a 6.  Cincinnati would become a 13 seed, Oregon State bumps to a 12, and Syracuse is eliminated.

[Uspshoosier]

Selection Sunday is one of my favorite days of the year.  It is like a holiday in the USPS household.   It is also a sad day because it means that the season is winding down.   Before i release  the bracket a little about the Hoosiers resume.   after looking at the resumes closer i truly  feel that IU was probably 3 wins away from getting an at large bid.   i always thought that being 2 games over .500 would of got the job done this year.  Easy to say but flip 3 games and finish 15-12 and they would of been dancing in my opinion while comparing them to the bubble teams.   14-13 probably gets them First 4 out or maybe they sneak in the First 4.  The non IU fan part of me kind of wished a power 5 team with a schedule like Iu would of finished one game over .500 or .500 just to see what the committee would of done

Thank you to all who take the time to follow my ramblings and college basketball talk especially  Bracketology and Team Resumes

reminder i only project the top 11 seeds and at-large teams and i dont do a full bracket.  Not enough time in the day to make a real bracket.

1 seed- Zags, Baylor, Illinois,  Michigan

Zags clearly the overall seed and has a chance to make history.   Big move for me here is i have Illinois ahead of Michigan in the seed line which before the week i thought Michigan was locked into the 3 spot.  11 Q1 wins for Illinois is the most by any team

2 seed- Bama, Ohio St, Iowa, Houston

first 3 should be locked into the 2 seed but the last one is between Ok St, Texas, Houston.  Committee loved Houston in their initial projection    If Houston loses today i would Move Ok St to the 2 line

3 seed- Ok St, Texas, Kansas, Arkansas

only 2 teams had 10 or more Q1 wins this year and Ok St was one of them.   If they wouldnt of been swept by TCU they are probably in play for a 1 seed

4 seed- West Virginia, Florida St, Virginia, Purdue

Florida St is the team to watch because i think they are better then being a 4 a seed but TO's lately have been to high.  I think they can give any 1 seed a challenge

5 seed- Nova, Tenn, LSU, Colorado

Top 4 seeds have kind of separated themselves from the rest and from 5-12 will come down to what the committee feels is more important

6 seed-USC,  Missouri, Creighton, Oregon,

Creighton is a team that im not going to agree with the committee im guessing.   i would put them lower because when you break it down more its not as strong for me but years past show me that they will get a better seed then they deserve.  I could see committee give them 5 seed

7 seed-UConn,  Wisky, Texas Tech, Florida,

Texas Tech is a hard one to seed.   Most projections i see have them at around a  5 seed.  I personally dont see it and i would have them down in 8 or 9 area if it was up to me

8 seed- Oklahoma, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech 

ACC dominates my 8 seeds.  Georgia Tech only had to win 2 games to win the ACC tournament but that was enough to move up a line 

9 seed-BYU, North Carolina, St Bonaventure, San Diego St 

If NC is indeed a 8 or 9 seed and they win their first round game that will be a really tough matchup for the 1 seed

10 seed- Maryland, VCU, Loyola, Rutgers 

If VCU wins today i would switch them with St Bonaventure.   UCLA resume isnt great but then again nothing at the bottom of this bracket is.    If Iu could of finished above .500 i feel with the 2 Iowa wins would of separated them from the others.   I dont have to tell you that didnt happen

11 seed-Sparty,  UCLA, (Louisville, Cuse, Utah St, Drake) my last 4 in 

last 4 in is on the 11 seed line.     If i did a full bracket 2 of those would probably move to the 12 line but for this it worked out that the last 4 in are 11 seeds.  

This year the First 4 out are important as well because the order of those will determine the first alternate if a team doesnt pass protocols

St Louis, Wichita St, Colorado St, Ole Miss and despite ESPN best effort no Duke isnt close

only 4 other teams that have a shot at the first 4 games.   Going to be interesting to see what happens with St Louis.   Before their Covid Pause they were a sure fire NCAA team.   They took a month off and they havent been the same.  Something to keep in mind tonight.  The last team in the field can thank the Ivy League for deciding not to play this year because that opened up an extra spot

mid majors to keep an eye on

Winthrop, UCSB, Ohio, North Texas and Oral Roberts

Ohio and Oral Roberts each have a player that can take over a game and win it by going off.   North Texas has some older grad transfer guards that have won a tournament game before.  

Happy Selection Sunday

 

[Uspshoosier]

By the end of the night this will be filled with teams.  One of these days I will get to put IUs name on this board.  That would of been the case last year but they didn’t happen 

[HoosierAloha]

@Uspshoosier I find that hilarious that ESPN felt the need to put that on their ticker.  Duke can still play in the tourney if invited..  haha no **** dumbasses, any team would play if they were invited. 

[Uspshoosier]

3 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

@Uspshoosier I find that hilarious that ESPN felt the need to put that on their ticker.  Duke can still play in the tourney if invited..  haha no **** dumbasses, any team would play if they were invited. 

Definitely didn’t need a breaking news that they would play if selected.  Lol 

[Uspshoosier]

Wichita st in the first 4 is bad news for Utah st I’m guessing 

[LIHoosier]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Wichita st in the first 4 is bad news for Utah st I’m guessing 

Just made it not even the first four

[Uspshoosier]

4 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Wichita st in the first 4 is bad news for Utah st I’m guessing 

Wow Utah st not even in the first 4 

[VO5]

Purdue gets a cakewalk to the sweet 16. Awesome. 

[RaceToTheTop]

4 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Wichita st in the first 4 is bad news for Utah st I’m guessing 

Aggies in........might be bad news for Syracuse.

[Uspshoosier]

1 minute ago, brumdog45 said:

Aggies in........might be bad news for Syracuse.

Louisville, UCLA sweating as well 

 

[RaceToTheTop]

6 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Definitely didn’t need a breaking news that they would play if selected.  Lol 

Here's a question:   will they play when if they get invited to the NIT?  Think that's a bad look for Duke to say they are okay to play in a tourney that won't invite them but won't to one they deserve.

[RaceToTheTop]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

Louisville, UCLA sweating as well 

 

So far it looks like the NCAA is valuing quad 1 wins higher than I do and quad 2 wins less than I do in the way they seeded Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  That's not good news for Louisville with a lack of quad ones and lots of quad twos.

[RaceToTheTop]

Oregon State against Tennessee seems like it will a popular 12 over 5 pick.