Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier 46,144]

https://sports.yahoo.com/how-ncaa-rankings-have-tiny-colgate-ahead-of-a-handful-of-powerhouses-221121339.html

[Uspshoosier 46,144]

 

[RaceToTheTop 26,188]

18 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

https://sports.yahoo.com/how-ncaa-rankings-have-tiny-colgate-ahead-of-a-handful-of-powerhouses-221121339.html

Interesting read.  FWIW, my weighting of the NET has Colgate too high (31) but not the ridiculous top ten high.

[Uspshoosier 46,144]

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-bracket-2021-s-curve-explained/1egfk3ade5vzc1o251qaf2icur

[Uspshoosier 46,144]

 

[Uspshoosier 46,144]

JUST IN: The NCAA has informed conferences that they will not permit regular-season games to be added following conference tournaments. 

Via @ENQSports:

 

Teams like Xavier were probably looking at this avenue before this 

[RaceToTheTop 26,188]

6 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

JUST IN: The NCAA has informed conferences that they will not permit regular-season games to be added following conference tournaments. 

Via @ENQSports:

 

Teams like Xavier were probably looking at this avenue before this 

Would be a travesty IMO if they had allowed teams to do this.

[TheWatShot 14,174]

Teams probably wouldn't be trying to do this if the NCAA hadn't needlessly delayed the start of the season by 2 weeks. 

[RaceToTheTop 26,188]

USPS: your opinion -- Drake in or out as an at large bid?  

Also:  your assessment of the order you would put these four:  Colorado State, UCLA, Ole Miss, and Syracuse?

 

[RaceToTheTop 26,188]

20 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Teams probably wouldn't be trying to do this if the NCAA hadn't needlessly delayed the start of the season by 2 weeks. 

Think it's more about the uneven number of games that teams played.  If everyone played, say 25 regular season games before their conference tourneys, it would be easier to compare resumes.  Teams like Xavier played 20.  

[Uspshoosier 46,144]

 

[Uspshoosier 46,144]

13 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

USPS: your opinion -- Drake in or out as an at large bid?  

Also:  your assessment of the order you would put these four:  Colorado State, UCLA, Ole Miss, and Syracuse?

 

Sorry Brumdog I missed this last night 

I do think Drake will get in this but I think it will be in the first 4 and they are rooting against Georgetown and Oregon St today 

 

that’s a really good question about those teams because those are all teams at the bottom I need to look at closer today before I protect my field tomorrow 

Louisville should be included in those teams as well but from my initial findings I would order them as 

UCLA, Cuse, ole miss and Colorado st.  St. Louis is the team that is hard to figure out what the committee will do with them.   Can’t wait to find out tomorrow 

[Uspshoosier 46,144]

Most bracketologist this year will probably nail the correct field but will be way off on seeding.   The bubble has shrank to a very small handful of teams but with the unbalanced schedules and some teams playing more games and having COVID pauses I think seeding is going to be extremely difficult from seeds 5-12 especially for someone like me that doesn’t have as much time as most those others do since I just do it for fun 

[RaceToTheTop 26,188]

11 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Most bracketologist this year will probably nail the correct field but will be way off on seeding.   The bubble has shrank to a very small handful of teams but with the unbalanced schedules and some teams playing more games and having COVID pauses I think seeding is going to be extremely difficult from seeds 5-12 especially for someone like me that doesn’t have as much time as most those others do since I just do it for fun 

The bubble is just so hard to predict right now and seems to be shifting continually.  Wichita State looked to be pretty safe before today and then lost to Cincinnati.....wouldn't have been that damning except we are talking about a team that had played less than 20 games, so that loss gets magnified.  

To me, the hardest team to figure in terms of seeding is Oklahoma.  5-9 Quad one, 10-1 Quad 3/4......and didn't play a single quad 2 game.

[RaceToTheTop 26,188]

Seems to me that the conference that is most hurt by Georgetown winning their conference as well the possibility of Oregon St and Cincinnati winning theirs is the Mountain West.  Its possible they could lose two bids if Utah State and Colorado State both get knocked off the bubble.

[RaceToTheTop 26,188]

12 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Sorry Brumdog I missed this last night 

I do think Drake will get in this but I think it will be in the first 4 and they are rooting against Georgetown and Oregon St today 

 

that’s a really good question about those teams because those are all teams at the bottom I need to look at closer today before I protect my field tomorrow 

Louisville should be included in those teams as well but from my initial findings I would order them as 

UCLA, Cuse, ole miss and Colorado st.  St. Louis is the team that is hard to figure out what the committee will do with them.   Can’t wait to find out tomorrow 

Thanks.  My raw NET adjusted rankings have it ranked as UCLA, Syracuse, Colorado State, and then Ole Miss.  

Very interesting argument when comparing Utah State to Colorado State, both MWC teams.  Utah State 10-2 in conference but played a longer but not very successful non-conference schedule, Colorado State 14-4 in conference and only played three non-conference games.  Played each other three times with Utah State winning 2.  My adjusted NET numbers have them ranked right next to each other -- Colorado St at 52, Utah St at 53.

In terms of St. Louis, I don't see them getting in.  They are an incredibly strange case.  Definitely strange to see that they got both LSU and North Carolina State to play them in St.Louis.  I think the collapse of teams like Minnesota and Richmond hurt St.Louis because it makes those losses look worse.

[Uspshoosier 46,144]

28 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

The bubble is just so hard to predict right now and seems to be shifting continually.  Wichita State looked to be pretty safe before today and then lost to Cincinnati.....wouldn't have been that damning except we are talking about a team that had played less than 20 games, so that loss gets magnified.  

To me, the hardest team to figure in terms of seeding is Oklahoma.  5-9 Quad one, 10-1 Quad 3/4......and didn't play a single quad 2 game.

Look at Texas Tech and Creightons resumes 

 

[RaceToTheTop 26,188]

14 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Look at Texas Techs resume 

Yeah, they are another team my adjusted NET ratings don't like very well.  By my ratings, they look like an 11 seed.  Almost half of their wins are against Quad 4 teams.....against Quads 1-3, they are 9-10.

My adjusted NET ratings certainly don't see to view those Big 12 8 through 10 loss teams the same (this is updated through today's championship game):

Seed by adjusted NET ranking:

Baylor: 1

Texas 2

Oklahoma St 3

West Virginia 3

Kansas 4

Texas Tech 11

Oklahoma 12

 

 

[Uspshoosier 46,144]

Just now, brumdog45 said:

Yeah, they are another team my adjusted NET ratings don't like very well.  By my ratings, they look like an 11 seed.  Almost half of their wins are against Quad 4 teams.....against Quads 1-3, they are 9-10.

My adjusted NET ratings certainly don't see to view those Big 12 8 through 10 loss teams the same (this is updated through today's championship game):

Seed by adjusted NET ranking:

Baylor: 1

Texas 2

Oklahoma St 3

West Virginia 3

Kansas 4

Texas Tech 11

Oklahoma 12

 

 

What do you have Creighton because diving deeper into their resume it’s not as good as some probably think 

[RaceToTheTop 26,188]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

What do you have Creighton because diving deeper into their resume it’s not as good as some probably think 

I have them as a 7 (#26 overall).  I had them dropping 6 spots today from 20 to 26 after their loss to Georgetown.