Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Stuhoo 80,876]

12 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

If I’m IU I’m trying to schedule a winnable non conference game next Thursday.  

With the Michigan game cancelled that leaves one game they could schedule.  27 maximum games 

Not to be a jerk but what level of team would IU currently consider a “winnable non-conference game?”

[Uspshoosier 45,686]

1 minute ago, Stuhoo said:

Not to be a jerk but what level of team would IU currently consider a “winnable non-conference game?”

Q3 or Q4 game.  Just need a win to pad the win total.    It won’t happen but if the coach truly feels his job is in jeopardy then I would do everything possible that would get me a better chance of making the tournament.   

[Stuhoo 80,876]

1 minute ago, Uspshoosier said:

Q3 or Q4 game.  Just need a win to pad the win total.    It won’t happen but if the coach truly feels his job is in jeopardy then I would do everything possible that would get me a better chance of making the tournament.   

Chicago State here we come!

[Uspshoosier 45,686]

4 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Not to be a jerk but what level of team would IU currently consider a “winnable non-conference game?”

It could also back fire like it did North Carolina.  They scheduled an extra northeastern game and won and then pushed their luck and scheduled Marquette a Q3 game and ended up losing.  They should of stopped with northeastern or scheduled a lower team then Marquette 

[Uspshoosier 45,686]

Just now, Stuhoo said:

Chicago State here we come!

They cancelled their season half way through 

[Stuhoo 80,876]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

It could also back fire like it did North Carolina.  They scheduled an extra northeastern game and won and then pushed their luck and scheduled Marquette a Q3 game and ended up losing.  They should of stopped with northeastern or scheduled a lower team then Marquette 

No...I get your point.

Padding the win total would be very smart. If they win one of two remaining games and add a cupcake win that would be major

[Stuhoo 80,876]

1 minute ago, Uspshoosier said:

They cancelled their season half way through 

Mississippi Valley still playing? Lol

[Uspshoosier 45,686]

1 minute ago, Stuhoo said:

No...I get your point.

Padding the win total would be very smart. If they win one of two remaining games and add a cupcake win that would be major

I’m not even sure if the League would allow them a non conference game this late in the season but seeing North Carolina do it got me thinking that’s what they should do 

[RaceToTheTop 25,835]

On 2/27/2021 at 4:09 PM, Uspshoosier said:

I’m not even sure if the League would allow them a non conference game this late in the season but seeing North Carolina do it got me thinking that’s what they should do 

If the Big Ten were to stop a team from scheduling a non-conference game, it would be another sign how bad the Big Ten administration is.  They should literally have zero say in who teams are playing outside of their conference.  Considering the BT started forcing teams to play conference games in mid December, IMO they are saying there isn't a difference between conference/non-conference season.

[Uspshoosier 45,686]

Where things stand on a Thursday while i wait for the A-10 Tournament to start

IU has put themselves into a position where they are going to have to make a mini-run in the B1G tournament just to get their name back in the at-large conversation.    Winning this weekend would be a big first step.   Also if i was IU i would find a way to add an extra non conference game before the end of the season.   Not sure if they can but thats what i would try to do.   Kansas is playing UTEP tonight because they are done with their Big 12 games.   If my job was on the line i would do everything possible to give my team the best chance at the tournament.    im just giving you the path im not telling you its going to happen so i dont need responses that say not a chance have you seen this team play?

 

I say it every year but the margin between winning and losing is so slim.   I said this in another thread but IU was basically winning 3 or 4 more games over these 3 years and global pandemic from making the tournament 3 out 4 years.   None would be happy with the seeds IU would of gotten but the conversation would be different then it is today.   That didnt happen so here we are today.    A lost program still trying to find its way.  an example of the difference between a program that has lost its way compared to a program that has been rolling would be the difference between Michigan and Iu.    Many bring up the fact that in year 2 Howard is more successful at Michigan then Archie at IU.     Howard took over a striving program that was coming off back to back 30 wins season with one of those seasons a National runner up finish.  Howard is only coaching at Michigan because for whatever reason Beilien decided to go to the NBA.   Now Howard has taken advantage of the situation and has proven that he is an exceptional coach proven me wrong.    IU on the other hand is not and was not a striving program when Archie took over.   He replaced the previous coach who was fired based on performance.   The program was coming off a first round loss in the NIT.  He was brought in for the hopes that this program could find its way.  Clearly that didnt happen and the program is still lost.

NET-60

KP-39

12-13

Q1-(2-10)

Q2-(6-2)

Q3-(2-1)

Q4-(2-0)

SOS-4

non con sos-30

This is where things could get interesting if IU would finish above .500

here is a list of IU's opponents NET

(3,4,4,6,6,8,14,22,22,24,26,32,37,37,49,70,72,72,78,82,86,86,113,119,303,315)

For a team that was  projected to finish 8th-10th in the B1G before the season that schedule is brutal.   Still had chances to win enough games where they could of been off the bubble but doesnt take from the fact thats a tough schedule for a top tier team.   When the B1G is historically good some teams are going to be left out in cold.  No doubt in my mind IU is one of the best 37 at-large teams this year.   I look at some of these teams resumes and compare their schedules and its crazy to see the difference in quality.  But none of that matters you get judged by your results you do against your schedule.   Im telling you it will get interesting if IU finds a way to be .500 or 1 game above .500.    Not saying they make it in but my guess it will be really close.   

 

 

 

 

[RaceToTheTop 25,835]

On 3/4/2021 at 8:47 AM, Uspshoosier said:

Where things stand on a Thursday while i wait for the A-10 Tournament to start

IU has put themselves into a position where they are going to have to make a mini-run in the B1G tournament just to get their name back in the at-large conversation.    Winning this weekend would be a big first step.   Also if i was IU i would find a way to add an extra non conference game before the end of the season.   Not sure if they can but thats what i would try to do.   Kansas is playing UTEP tonight because they are done with their Big 12 games.   If my job was on the line i would do everything possible to give my team the best chance at the tournament.    im just giving you the path im not telling you its going to happen so i dont need responses that say not a chance have you seen this team play?

 

I say it every year but the margin between winning and losing is so slim.   I said this in another thread but IU was basically winning 3 or 4 more games over these 3 years and global pandemic from making the tournament 3 out 4 years.   None would be happy with the seeds IU would of gotten but the conversation would be different then it is today.   That didnt happen so here we are today.    A lost program still trying to find its way.  an example of the difference between a program that has lost its way compared to a program that has been rolling would be the difference between Michigan and Iu.    Many bring up the fact that in year 2 Howard is more successful at Michigan then Archie at IU.     Howard took over a striving program that was coming off back to back 30 wins season with one of those seasons a National runner up finish.  Howard is only coaching at Michigan because for whatever reason Beilien decided to go to the NBA.   Now Howard has taken advantage of the situation and has proven that he is an exceptional coach proven me wrong.    IU on the other hand is not and was not a striving program when Archie took over.   He replaced the previous coach who was fired based on performance.   The program was coming off a first round loss in the NIT.  He was brought in for the hopes that this program could find its way.  Clearly that didnt happen and the program is still lost.

NET-60

KP-39

12-13

Q1-(2-10)

Q2-(6-2)

Q3-(2-1)

Q4-(2-0)

SOS-4

non con sos-30

This is where things could get interesting if IU would finish above .500

here is a list of IU's opponents NET

(3,4,4,6,6,8,14,22,22,24,26,32,37,37,49,70,72,72,78,82,86,86,113,119,303,315)

For a team that was  projected to finish 8th-10th in the B1G before the season that schedule is brutal.   Still had chances to win enough games where they could of been off the bubble but doesnt take from the fact thats a tough schedule for a top tier team.   When the B1G is historically good some teams are going to be left out in cold.  No doubt in my mind IU is one of the best 37 at-large teams this year.   I look at some of these teams resumes and compare their schedules and its crazy to see the difference in quality.  But none of that matters you get judged by your results you do against your schedule.   Im telling you it will get interesting if IU finds a way to be .500 or 1 game above .500.    Not saying they make it in but my guess it will be really close.   

 

 

 

 

Obviously IU isn't going to get to .500 without getting to the BTT championship game, but one of my major frustrations has always been with the Big Ten forcing teams into a 20 game conference schedule.  It's overkill.  Drop it back to 18 and let the two choose how they want to schedule the extra two non-conference games.

[Uspshoosier 45,686]

Team A 

NET-41

KP-40

Q1- (2-6)

Q2-(3-2)

Q3,4-(12-0)

SOS- 53 

 

Team B

NET-52

Q1-(3-4)

Q2-(5-4)

Q3-(2-2)

Q4-(5-0)

SOS-71

 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,674]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Team A 

NET-41

KP-40

Q1- (2-6)

Q2-(3-2)

Q3,4-(12-0)

SOS- 53 

 

Team B

NET-52

Q1-(3-4)

Q2-(5-4)

Q3-(2-2)

Q4-(5-0)

SOS-71

 

Well if I were a blind mouse, I'd be Team 2. 

[Uspshoosier 45,686]

31 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Well if I were a blind mouse, I'd be Team 2. 

While I was going through team sheets these 2 stood out for me while comparing how they have been projected by others.  
 

Team A is projected solidly in the field by many 

Team B is on the outside looking  in on many if not all 

I agree with you I would take team B

 

Team A-UCLA

Team B- Ole Miss 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,674]

36 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

While I was going through team sheets these 2 stood out for me while comparing how they have been projected by others.  
 

Team A is projected solidly in the field by many 

Team B is on the outside looking  in on many if not all 

I agree with you I would take team B

 

Team A-UCLA

Team B- Ole Miss 

This is why I believe the eye test should be such a priority this season. Not enough data for teams to be doing blind resumes. 

[RaceToTheTop 25,835]

5 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Team A 

NET-41

KP-40

Q1- (2-6)

Q2-(3-2)

Q3,4-(12-0)

SOS- 53 

 

Team B

NET-52

Q1-(3-4)

Q2-(5-4)

Q3-(2-2)

Q4-(5-0)

SOS-71

 

It's an issue with the quad system, IMO.  You can see that Team A's SOS is about 20 spots better than Team B's, yet if you just look at the quad ratings of opponents, Team B's SOS is better.  Remove the quad system and the comparison would be:

Team A;  17-8 record, SOS 52

Team B:  15-10 record, SOS 71.

Without the quads, no one would ever say Team B is more deserving.

[Uspshoosier 45,686]

7 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

It's an issue with the quad system, IMO.  You can see that Team A's SOS is about 20 spots better than Team B's, yet if you just look at the quad ratings of opponents, Team B's SOS is better.  Remove the quad system and the comparison would be:

Team A;  17-8 record, SOS 52

Team B:  15-10 record, SOS 71.

Without the quads, no one would ever say Team B is more deserving.

Always have been Quads they just never come out and said that’s what they were. 
 

Old system 1-50 was Q1

51-100 was Q2 

101-150 was Q3 

151+ was Q4 

Quality of the wins are always going to be a factor 

 

[Uspshoosier 45,686]

13 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

It's an issue with the quad system, IMO.  You can see that Team A's SOS is about 20 spots better than Team B's, yet if you just look at the quad ratings of opponents, Team B's SOS is better.  Remove the quad system and the comparison would be:

Team A;  17-8 record, SOS 52

Team B:  15-10 record, SOS 71.

Without the quads, no one would ever say Team B is more deserving.

It’s interesting I could make a case for team B over team A.   UCLA has on beaten 1 team projected in the field and that was a home win 

Ole miss has 3 wins against projected teams with 1 of those being on the road 

[RaceToTheTop 25,835]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Always have been Quads they just never come out and said that’s what they were. 
 

Old system 1-50 was Q1

51-100 was Q2 

101-150 was Q3 

151+ was Q4 

Quality of the wins are always going to be a factor 

 

But any quad system, whether old or new, has made things that aren't really comparable into things they call comparable.  A road win at Gonzaga and a road win at Buffalo right now would both be considered as quad 1 wins.

What I would find interesting is a projection that compared what a team's seasonal record would be compared to what they would be for a team considered to be, say, the 50th overall best team (i.e., a team considered to be worthy of the last at large bid).

For instance, a team playing the #1 team and the #200 team receives the same basic SOS as a team that plays the #100 and #101 teams. But which the win expectancy for the 50th best team going against #100 and 101 is higher than the team that plays the #1 and 101 because of the high expectancy of a loss to the #1 team.  Just throwing numbers out there, but I would say the win expectancy of #50 against #1 on a neutral court is south of 10% (we'll use 10% just as a guide), while their expectancy of beating #200 is, let's say, 90%.  Their win expectancy of playing #100 and 101 is probably around 70% in each.  2-0 is more impressive if they played 1 and 200 than if they played 100 and 101 (win expectancy of 1 and 200 is 1.0 wins while it is 1.4 for situation 2).

So the results would yield:

against 1 and 200:

Going 2-0 yields a +1.0

Going 1-1 yields a 0

Going 0-2 yields a -1.

against 100 and 101

Going 2-0 yields a +0.6

Going 1-1 yields a -0.4

Going 0-2 yields a -1.4.

Of course getting the expectancy percentages is the key.

[RaceToTheTop 25,835]

10 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

It’s interesting I could make a case for team B over team A.   UCLA has on beaten 1 team projected in the field and that was a home win 

Ole miss has 3 wins against projected teams with 1 of those being on the road 

I think it would be interesting to see how they would compare in the system that I mentioned above.  Under the system I suggest, a SOS of 50 v an SOS of 70 isn't that meaningful when it doesn't actually mean the SOS of 50 should produce more wins for the reason I stated.  It could be that Mississippi might actually have a higher net win comparison despite a lower SOS because the combination of teams they play actually produces a lower win expectancy.