Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier 44,143]

25-VCU, 26-Colo, 27-UTAHST, 28-Lsu; 29-Wash, 30-Prov, 31-Marq, 32-Hou; 33-Tenn, 34-CINCY, 35-Mich, 36-Creigh, 37-Okla, 38-NDame, 39-NCSt, 40-Wisc, 41-Illini, 42-Wvu (LAST FOUR IN) 43-Dayton, 44-Indiana, 45-KanSt, 46-MissSt...

 

Lunardi has IU as last 4 in on November 11

If anyone cares.

Not sure where the last Bracketology thread went so I’m starting another one

 

 

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[HoosierAloha 29,880]

25-VCU, 26-Colo, 27-UTAHST, 28-Lsu; 29-Wash, 30-Prov, 31-Marq, 32-Hou; 33-Tenn, 34-CINCY, 35-Mich, 36-Creigh, 37-Okla, 38-NDame, 39-NCSt, 40-Wisc, 41-Illini, 42-Wvu (LAST FOUR IN) 43-Dayton, 44-Indiana, 45-KanSt, 46-MissSt...
 
Lunardi has IU as last 4 in on November 11
If anyone cares.
Not sure where the last Bracketology thread went so I’m starting another one
 
 
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Hopefully, this isn’t a matter of will or won’t but a matter of seed. Let’s kick some Big Ten @$$ and get a decent seed.


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[Uspshoosier 44,143]

As things stand today and this will change but just for fun IU is

 

1-1 in Quad 1 games

13 remaining Quad 1 games

 

IU is 1-0 in Quad 2 games

4 remaining Quad 2 games

 

2-0 in Quad 3 games

2 remaining Quad 2 games

 

6-0 in Quad 4 games

1 remaining game in Quad 4

 

17 opportunities for a Quad 1 and 2 game

 

The strength of schedule was always going to work itself out.

 

This is going to change. Some teams will move up a Quad when we play them and others will probably move down a Quad but plenty of resume building wins to be had

 

 

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[IUc2016 6,856]

IIRC what really hurt IU last year was the QUAD 2 record. They had a chance to really help themselves in Quad 2 games at home and couldn't get it done. Hopefully that is not the case this year. 

[Uspshoosier 44,143]

IIRC what really hurt IU last year was the QUAD 2 record. They had a chance to really help themselves in Quad 2 games at home and couldn't get it done. Hopefully that is not the case this year. 

Yep the biggest reason why IU was left out last year was they went 2-6 in Quad 2 games


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[IUc2016 6,856]

The Ohio state and Iowa games really stung.


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[RaceToTheTop 23,402]

I guess I don't get the lack of votes for IU in the rankings.  Louisville non-conference SOS is 314 on KenPom;  UK is 311.  IU is 274.

Not saying that IU should be ahead of them by any means.  But IU has the same record as Louisville despite a stronger schedule and Louisville is top 5.  UK has three losses including a home loss to a team ranked #202 on Pom.

[mdn82 25,456]

I guess I don't get the lack of votes for IU in the rankings.  Louisville non-conference SOS is 314 on KenPom;  UK is 311.  IU is 274.
Not saying that IU should be ahead of them by any means.  But IU has the same record as Louisville despite a stronger schedule and Louisville is top 5.  UK has three losses including a home loss to a team ranked #202 on Pom.

Right now I think most bracketologists would have us in that 5 or 6 seed range based on what others have done. I still think there is room to move way up or down depending on conference. I feel there are a lot of teams of equal talent. There are really only one or two teams that stand above the rest. If anyone would have told me we would have only one loss going into the Arkansas game I would have been pretty happy with that. Hopefully it continues.


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[WayneFleekHoosier 46,691]

Pre season hype is a big deal. It takes a bit of bad play to lose the aura. How you are perceived as a program/team plays a big part. We need to gain that aura back. Recruiting wins is a fast way to do that. I.e Memphis. Winning on the court will do it too, but it takes multiple seasons. I.e Purdue.




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[Uspshoosier 44,143]

Now that Phase 1 (non conference) is compete here is a look at where IU stands.
Before the season started many on here felt that this IU team wasn’t a NCAA tournament team and pointed out that no media had them in their projections. As 1 of 3 phases is compete IU has squarely put itself in position(like they did last year) to earn a ncaa tournament bid

In the non-conference IU went 10-1
IU has a Quad 1 win
IU had 2 Quad 2 wins on neutral
courts
IU had a chance to have a great non conference this year but had to settle for a good non conference
IU missed out on a home opportunity against Arkansas. IU’s only loss in the non conference was a Quad 1 loss

IU did nothing in the non conference that hurts its chances to earn a bid but they did miss out on an opportunity to improve their resume

Moving forward into Phase 2 IU will have multiple chances to improve their resume while playing in the B1G.

So far IU is 1-1 in conference play with its only loss to Wisky(net 34) a road Quad 1 loss.

IU’s next 9 games are going to be a challenge. It’s probably going to get worse before it gets better. IU is projected to go 2-7 in the next 9 games. After that the schedule becomes more manageable. This only my opinion but I think they will do better then that.

Since this is a bracketology and resume thread No need for comments about “but they looked like crap while winning the game” you got plenty of places to add that this thread focuses on that numbers and for now the numbers say IU has put itself in good position heading into conference play. For me personally they have the resume that I thought they would have up until this point. Only difference was I thought they would split the neutral court games

Buckle up people. Will IU do enough in conference or will they have another historically collapse like last year? Can’t wait to find out.

Feel free to shoot some Bracketology or team resume questions in this thread and I will try to answer them




This thread is a resume and bracketology thread


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[Brass Cannon 24,062]

3 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Now that Phase 1 (non conference) is compete here is a look at where IU stands.
Before the season started many on here felt that this IU team wasn’t a NCAA tournament team and pointed out that no media had them in their projections. As 1 of 3 phases is compete IU has squarely put itself in position(like they did last year) to earn a ncaa tournament bid

In the non-conference IU went 10-1
IU has a Quad 1 win
IU had 2 Quad 2 wins on neutral
courts
IU had a chance to have a great non conference this year but had to settle for a good non conference
IU missed out on a home opportunity against Arkansas. IU’s only loss in the non conference was a Quad 1 loss

IU did nothing in the non conference that hurts its chances to earn a bid but they did miss out on an opportunity to improve their resume

Moving forward into Phase 2 IU will have multiple chances to improve their resume while playing in the B1G.

So far IU is 1-1 in conference play with its only loss to Wisky(net 34) a road Quad 1 loss.

IU’s next 9 games are going to be a challenge. It’s probably going to get worse before it gets better. IU is projected to go 2-7 in the next 9 games. After that the schedule becomes more manageable. This only my opinion but I think they will do better then that.

Since this is a bracketology and resume thread No need for comments about “but they looked like crap while winning the game” you got plenty of places to add that this thread focuses on that numbers and for now the numbers say IU has put itself in good position heading into conference play. For me personally they have the resume that I thought they would have up until this point. Only difference was I thought they would split the neutral court games

Buckle up people. Will IU do enough in conference or will they have another historically collapse like last year? Can’t wait to find out.

Feel free to shoot some Bracketology or team resume questions in this thread and I will try to answer them




This thread is a resume and bracketology thread


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When you say projected do you mean Kenpom

[Uspshoosier 44,143]

When you say projected do you mean Kenpom

Yeah that is one of them that is projecting the 2-7 but there are other predictive websites. Keep in mind since they are predictive measures their projections get to change daily. If IU starts that stretch out 3-0 his numbers will change for the rest of the games so what he once projected as 2-7 could change to 5-4 or if they lose their first 3 it could change to 0-9. Ken Pom has the greatest gig ever. Everyone loves his projections but since they change throughout the season he doesn’t get held accountable for projections made earlier

 

 

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[Brass Cannon 24,062]

7 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Yeah that is one of them that is projecting the 2-7 but there are other predictive websites. Keep in mind since they are predictive measures their projections get to change daily. If IU starts that stretch out 3-0 his numbers will change for the rest of the games so what he once projected as 2-7 could change to 5-4 or if they lose their first 3 it could change to 0-9. Ken Pom has the greatest gig ever. Everyone loves his projections but since they change throughout the season he doesn’t get held accountable for projections made earlier

 

 

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Torvik(sp) has us projected 3-6 over the next 9. But only 4-5 over the last 9. 
 

Need to pull some upsets to make the tourney. 

[RaceToTheTop 23,402]

brass -- I think by projected he meant most basketball services -- i.e., Lunardi, Sporting News Athlon etc -- did not consider them to be a tournament team.

Putting the following numbers in this thread from a question you were posed in the IU/Arkansas thread in which you felt that IU would not be a tournament team based on upcoming schedule and how IU had played the last five games.  In full disclosure, I don't know how the numbers are going to bear out and am running them through as I post.  I will be using Sagarin's numbers (which are similar to Pom's in terms of overall rating for IU -- Pom has IU at 40 and Sagarin has IU with a predictor ranking of 39 -- because Sagarin is pretty straightforward in terms of pointspreads.

In terms of the last five games, Pom currently has IU with a predictor rating of 84.4.  I think it was at about 85 before the last string of games, but here is what Sagarin would have predicted for the last five games based on current power ratings:

IU at Wisky:  Wisky by 3

Nebraska at IU:  IU by 13

IU v UConn (N):  IU by 3

IU v Notre Dame (N):  IU by 3

Arkansas v IU:  IU by 3

I'd say with that group of games, you expect that you're not going to lose the Nebraska game (we almost did) and in the other four games, 1-3 would be a disaster;  2-2 below average; 3-1 a decent result;  ecstatic with 4-0.  We went 2-2....the biggest disappointment being we were 2-1 going into the last of the four games.

I believe you stated you thought that we would need to win 8 more games to make the tournament -- I think it might take 9 (either nine in the Big Ten or 8 + at least 1 in the BTT).  Anyway, here is the Sagarin predictions for the rest of IU's games based on team's current ratings:

at Maryland   Maryland by 8

Northwestern  IU by 13

Ohio State  Ohio State by 3

at Rutgers  Rutgers by 1

at Nebraska  IU by 6

Michigan State  Michigan State by 4

Maryland  Maryland by 1

at Penn State  Penn St by 4

at Ohio State  Ohio State by 9

Purdue  IU by 1

Iowa  IU by 2

at Michigan  Michigan by 7

at MInnesota  Minnesota by 4

Penn State  IU by 2

at Purdue  Purdue by 6

at Illinois  Illinois by 2

Minnesota  IU by 3

Wisconsin  IU by 4

[Uspshoosier 44,143]

Torvik(sp) has us projected 3-6 over the next 9. But only 4-5 over the last 9. 
 
Need to pull some upsets to make the tourney. 

i see more wins that that personally. I just see a whole bunch of teams in the middle of the pack that all have flaws and each game will be a grind. Last years losing streak was something I haven’t seen from a team in all the years I have been doing Bracketology and they still were close to making it. Odds of that kind of losing streak seem slim to me. Although with IU’s luck with these sorts of things who knows. In creans last year IU is the only team to beat 2 eventual 1 seeds in the non conference and still not make the tourney.


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[Brass Cannon 24,062]

2 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

brass -- I think by projected he meant most basketball services -- i.e., Lunardi, Sporting News Athlon etc -- did not consider them to be a tournament team.

Putting the following numbers in this thread from a question you were posed in the IU/Arkansas thread in which you felt that IU would not be a tournament team based on upcoming schedule and how IU had played the last five games.  In full disclosure, I don't know how the numbers are going to bear out and am running them through as I post.  I will be using Sagarin's numbers (which are similar to Pom's in terms of overall rating for IU -- Pom has IU at 40 and Sagarin has IU with a predictor ranking of 39 -- because Sagarin is pretty straightforward in terms of pointspreads.

In terms of the last five games, Pom currently has IU with a predictor rating of 84.4.  I think it was at about 85 before the last string of games, but here is what Sagarin would have predicted for the last five games based on current power ratings:

IU at Wisky:  Wisky by 3

Nebraska at IU:  IU by 13

IU v UConn (N):  IU by 3

IU v Notre Dame (N):  IU by 3

Arkansas v IU:  IU by 3

I'd say with that group of games, you expect that you're not going to lose the Nebraska game (we almost did) and in the other four games, 1-3 would be a disaster;  2-2 below average; 3-1 a decent result;  ecstatic with 4-0.  We went 2-2....the biggest disappointment being we were 2-1 going into the last of the four games.

I believe you stated you thought that we would need to win 8 more games to make the tournament -- I think it might take 9 (either nine in the Big Ten or 8 + at least 1 in the BTT).  Anyway, here is the Sagarin predictions for the rest of IU's games based on team's current ratings:

at Maryland   Maryland by 8

Northwestern  IU by 13

Ohio State  Ohio State by 3

at Rutgers  Rutgers by 1

at Nebraska  IU by 6

Michigan State  Michigan State by 4

Maryland  Maryland by 1

at Penn State  Penn St by 4

at Ohio State  Ohio State by 9

Purdue  IU by 1

Iowa  IU by 2

at Michigan  Michigan by 7

at MInnesota  Minnesota by 4

Penn State  IU by 2

at Purdue  Purdue by 6

at Illinois  Illinois by 2

Minnesota  IU by 3

Wisconsin  IU by 4

Pretty in depth. 7-11 rest of the way sounds about right. Barring 2 wins in the tourney I think we come up short if that holds. 

[RaceToTheTop 23,402]

24 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Yeah that is one of them that is projecting the 2-7 but there are other predictive websites. Keep in mind since they are predictive measures their projections get to change daily. If IU starts that stretch out 3-0 his numbers will change for the rest of the games so what he once projected as 2-7 could change to 5-4 or if they lose their first 3 it could change to 0-9. Ken Pom has the greatest gig ever. Everyone loves his projections but since they change throughout the season he doesn’t get held accountable for projections made earlier

 

 

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I assume by projected at 2-7 you mean that they have us favored in 2 and as the underdog in the other 7.  But what I remember from Pom when I had a subscription, that give percentage projections for each game and the overall record projection is based on those projections.

I.e.:  let's say that being a 2 point underdog gives you a 40% chance to win.  If you were an 2 point underdog in 10 straight games, each would be projected as a loss, but your projected record would be 4-6. 

[RaceToTheTop 23,402]

Just now, Brass Cannon said:

Pretty in depth. 7-11 rest of the way sounds about right. Barring 2 wins in the tourney I think we come up short if that holds. 

Typically there is a regression to the mean on projections for the reason I posted just above in the response on Pom.  I think if Sagarin went on projection percentages, they would say we are favored to win 7 of the 18 with an average number of victories being 8.

We're a bubble team with a bubble projections.  I think that is why we had such a reaction about the loss to Arkansas yesterday.

[Brass Cannon 24,062]

2 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Typically there is a regression to the mean on projections for the reason I posted just above in the response on Pom.  I think if Sagarin went on projection percentages, they would say we are favored to win 7 of the 18 with an average number of victories being 8.

We're a bubble team with a bubble projections.  I think that is why we had such a reaction about the loss to Arkansas yesterday.

No I think you are misunderstanding why people had that reaction I won’t say anymore to avoid derailing topic.
 

People aren’t upset because we we’re shocked to learn we are a bubble team. People are upset because are a bubble team. And they are livid that we are leaning to the wrong side of the bubble yet again. 

[Uspshoosier 44,143]

Typically there is a regression to the mean on projections for the reason I posted just above in the response on Pom.  I think if Sagarin went on projection percentages, they would say we are favored to win 7 of the 18 with an average number of victories being 8.
We're a bubble team with a bubble projections.  I think that is why we had such a reaction about the loss to Arkansas yesterday.

As of today IU isn’t a bubble team. They are projected solidly in the field. With the upcoming schedule I agree with you they have a bubble projection but for now my point in posting the numbers were that by bracketology standards they are in the field as of now and they wouldn’t be on the bubble


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