Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier 50,074]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

Road win against top 18 team in the net.   Probably not going to jump that high I was half kidding but they should jump up more then 5 spots.   NET loves road wins against good teams 

Harder to move up after a road win when you are in the 1-20 range but it seems like 30 + range will get a big boost.   IU only jumped 2 spots after a win at Purdue 

[HoosierAloha 30,092]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Road win against top 18 team in the net.   Probably not going to jump that high I was half kidding but they should jump up more then 5 spots.   NET loves road wins against good teams 

You really had me questioning things. I haven't paid that close attention but that would be one heck of a jump. I could see a move into the mid 30s depending on what others in front of them did today.

[Uspshoosier 50,074]

4 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

You really had me questioning things. I haven't paid that close attention but that would be one heck of a jump. I could see a move into the mid 30s depending on what others in front of them did today.

Only reason why Iowa isn’t top 30 anyway is they took that L at home to Eastern Illinois.    They were in the 20s before that loss.   

[RaceToTheTop 28,175]

4 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Harder to move up after a road win when you are in the 1-20 range but it seems like 30 + range will get a big boost.   IU only jumped 2 spots after a win at Purdue 

Am I correct in assuming that the affect on a NET rating is better if you win at Purdue and then lose at home to Iowa than vice versa?

If so, that's a problem I have with NET.  1-1 is 1-1.

[Uspshoosier 50,074]

4 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Am I correct in assuming that the affect on a NET rating is better if you win at Purdue and then lose at home to Iowa than vice versa?

If so, that's a problem I have with NET.  1-1 is 1-1.

Not sure  I just know when you are favored at home and you lose that’s bad and will probably affect your net in a negative way

[Uspshoosier 50,074]

6 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Only reason why Iowa isn’t top 30 anyway is they took that L at home to Eastern Illinois.    They were in the 20s before that loss.   

That loss cost them 33 spots.   They went for 27 to 60 in one night 

[HoosierAloha 30,092]

3 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

That loss cost them 33 spots.   They went for 27 to 60 in one night 

Ahh I remember that one. Didn't it lead to a losing streak before their get right game against us the first go round?

[RaceToTheTop 28,175]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

Not sure  I just know when you are favored at home and you lose that’s bad and will probably affect your net in a negative way

IMO, we're looking at the following comparison:

quad 1a win and a quad 2 loss v

quad 2 win and quad 1a loss.

Just my opinion -- and even if the result in NET is similar, the committee seems to prefer scenario 1 to scenario 2.  Not saying I agree, but they don't tend to view quad 2 losses as that damning but they love quad 1a wins.

Not so much proof, but I know NET really likes Rutgers resume for an 18-11 team.  6 quad 1 wins including a 1a road.  Seems to overrule 3 bad -- quad 3 -- losses.  

[RaceToTheTop 28,175]

7 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

That loss cost them 33 spots.   They went for 27 to 60 in one night 

That was early in the season, though.  How much of an effect do you think it has at this point?  They are 43 with that loss, what do you think they would be without it?  To me their resume without that loss entering tonight didn't really look any better than Northwestern which is at 41.

[Uspshoosier 50,074]

2 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

Ahh I remember that one. Didn't it lead to a losing streak before their get right game against us the first go round?

They were alternating wins and losses before that but yeah that started a  3 game losing streak that they followed up with a 4 game win streak 

[Uspshoosier 50,074]

2 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

That was early in the season, though.  How much of an effect do you think it has at this point?  They are 43 with that loss, what do you think they would be without it?  To me their resume without that loss entering tonight didn't really look any better than Northwestern which is at 41.

They dropped 33 spots and were 27 before so I would say without that loss they would have tracked like a top 30 team.  
KenPom dropped IU to 27th after tonight and Iowa moved to 34th.   Let’s see where NET moves both teams tomorrow 

[RaceToTheTop 28,175]

5 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

Ahh I remember that one. Didn't it lead to a losing streak before their get right game against us the first go round?

Lost their next two after that, at Nebraska and at Penn State.  Penn State game came down to the wire.  Worth noting that Patrick McCaffery took a leave of absence due to anxiety/depression issues right after that and during that three game stretch he was 5 of 29 from the field.  

[Uspshoosier 50,074]

IU dropped 10 spots to 28 

iowa gained 10 spots to 33 

[WayneFleekHoosier 49,772]

A 2.5 seed line loss. That’s rough. 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 9,023]

33 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

IU dropped 10 spots to 28 

iowa gained 10 spots to 33 

Oh the stupidity of the NET... This late in the season... This much data... And still dramatic swings. Doesn't make any sense. 

[NashvilleHoosier 3,802]

15 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

A 2.5 seed line loss. That’s rough. 

This is a blatant attempt to get USPS to get us all drinking early on a Wednesday and I’m here to say…eh, why not?

[DoctorP 1,607]

10 spot drop?! That’s ridiculous. 

[Uspshoosier 50,074]

51 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

A 2.5 seed line loss. That’s rough. 

Teams net number has nothing to do with seed line.   Just used as a sorting tool.   Drink 

[IUHoosierJoe 1,763]

I don’t remember if I posted this here before or on another board, but one thing to note for people discussing how many ranking positions a team rises or drops, each team has a numerical rating value that the NET doesn’t publish.  KenPom does publish his numerical ratings, so you can see the reason some teams ranked in the 20s and 30s take a big drop after a  bad loss is because they’re so even and tightly packed together in terms of numerical rating values.  It isn’t a conspiracy against certain teams, but just the way the math is going to work out.

[Uspshoosier 50,074]

I’m a little surprised by 10 spot fall but. It shocked.   IU benefited from this exact same thing earlier at Illinois.   Illinois dropped 10 and IU gained 10.     People freak out about the NET way too much.   What’s inside your team sheets matters way more than your NET number.    Example Florida Atlantic is 18 in the NET.  When they compare their resume with other teams around that number they will see they are closer to the 8-10 range even though they have a top 18 NET.