Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier 45,024]

2 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I know that is where people have them seeded and know my ranking isn't where they would be seeded right now.

My system isn't really reflective of where teams will be seeded but rather where I calculate they should be seeded.  I don't know what NET says their non-conference SOS is, but Pom has it as one of the worst in D1 -- 345th.  Five wins against Pom teams above 300, only two games played against top 25 Pom teams.  

 

306

Top 4 road win to go along with another top 50 road win.   3 home top 31 home wins.  
 

 

[RaceToTheTop 24,923]

7 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Rutgers is probably around the 5-6 seed range 

Where would you rank the Big Ten teams individually in terms of resume?  My calculations have it:

1.  Purdue (+7.64)

2.  Illinois (+2.36)

3.  Michigan St (+2.12)

4.  Maryland (+1.82)

5.  Indiana (+1.81)

6.  Northwestern (+1.22)

7.  Rutgers (+1.08)

8.  Iowa (+1.02)

9.  Wisconsin (+0.78)

10.  Penn State (+0.74)

11. Ohio State (-1.02)

12.  Michigan (-1.71)

13. Nebraska (-2,12)

14. Minnesota (-4.71)

 

[NashvilleHoosier 3,675]

3 hours ago, Stuhoo said:

So five wins out of nine remaining B1G regular season games plus at least one B1G tournament game.

That’s eminently achievable.

Of our remaining 9 games, currently 6 are Q1 and 3 are Q2. Winning 5 would mean we'd at least get 2 more Q1 wins. A BTT win could also be Q1 game. Even before the BTT we'd be 20-11, 11-9 in conference, 5-10 in Q1, 6-1 in Q2, so an overall .500 Q1/Q2 of 11-11. That would not be sweating at all on Selection Sunday. The tournament is eminently achievable. A really solid seed in the tournament remains well within sight. Here's hoping OSU remains a Q1 game and Wisky remains a Q2 game, both of which are teetering on the edge.

[Uspshoosier 45,024]

2 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Where would you rank the Big Ten teams individually in terms of resume?  My calculations have it:

1.  Purdue (+7.64)

2.  Illinois (+2.36)

3.  Michigan St (+2.12)

4.  Maryland (+1.82)

5.  Indiana (+1.81)

6.  Northwestern (+1.22)

7.  Rutgers (+1.08)

8.  Iowa (+1.02)

9.  Wisconsin (+0.78)

10.  Penn State (+0.74)

11. Ohio State (-1.02)

12.  Michigan (-1.71)

13. Nebraska (-2,12)

14. Minnesota (-4.71)

 

Without doing a deep dive

1. Purdue 

big gap

2. Rutgers 

3. IU 

4. Illinois 

5. Sparty 

6. Iowa 

7. Maryland 

8.  Northwestern 

9. Penn St 

10. Ohio st 

11. Wisky

12. Michigan 

13. Nebraska 

14.  Minny 

 

 

 

 

[RaceToTheTop 24,923]

34 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

306

Top 4 road win to go along with another top 50 road win.   3 home top 31 home wins.  
 

 

Here is how my system says for Rutgers to be a minimum at large NCAA team based on the schedule they've had:

They should have gone 10.5 - 3.5 in their 14 home games (Columbia, Sacred Heart, UMass Lowell, Rider, Central Conn, Indiana, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Bucknell, Coppin St, Maryland, Ohio State, and Penn State).  They have went 12-2, so they are +1.5 at home.

On the road, I have a minimum at large team going 2,44-4.56 against the seven teams they've played on the road or on neutral court (Miami, Ohio State, Purdue, Northwestern, Michigan State, Iowa and Temple on a neutral court).  They have went 2-5, so they are -0.44 on the road.

+1.50 - 0.44 yields a +1.06 for me (note that I just reconciled their opponent's ratings and they gained .03)

Comparison to Indiana:

I have Indiana needing to go 10.25-2.75 against their 13 home opponents.  They've 12-1, so IU is +1.75 at home.

On the road, I have IU needing to be 2.9 - 5.1.  They actually went 3 - 5, so I have them as +0.1 on the road.

Total rating +1.75 + 0.10 for a +1.85 (reconciled, which added +.04).

One final one for comparison, Northwestern:

I have them needing to have gone 10.18-2.82 at home in their thirteen games;  they went 10-3 for a -0.18.

On the road/neutral, I have the minimum number at 3.6-4.4 (they had some easier road/neutral games in the mix than IU or Rutgers).  They have actually won 5, so they have a +1.40 on the road.  Combined rating is a +1.22.

 

 

[RaceToTheTop 24,923]

18 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Without doing a deep dive

1. Purdue 

big gap

2. Rutgers 

3. IU 

4. Illinois 

5. Sparty 

6. Iowa 

7. Maryland 

8.  Northwestern 

9. Penn St 

10. Ohio st 

11. Wisky

12. Michigan 

13. Nebraska 

14.  Minny 

 

 

 

 

So our biggest disparity is going to be Rutgers.  IU moved ahead of Maryland when I reconciled the ratings this morning, so I have them fourth instead of fifth.  We have a switch in the order of Penn State/Ohio State/Wisconsin.  My system likes Ohio State's schedule and if they were 13-8 instead of 11-10 would have them in and above the play in games. Basically if Ohio State had one less win than Penn State, it likes Ohio State better.  But three less, not so much.

[RaceToTheTop 24,923]

Mountain West is either going to have a lot of bubble teams get in or not make.  Top teams splitting a lot of games but the bottom of the conference not pulling many upsets.

[NashvilleHoosier 3,675]

Wisky became a Q3 win today. Looking like they’ll bounce back into Q2 territory while taking away a Q1 win of ours. Could stand for both of these teams to finish strong down the stretch.

[RaceToTheTop 24,923]

3 hours ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

Wisky became a Q3 win today. Looking like they’ll bounce back into Q2 territory while taking away a Q1 win of ours. Could stand for both of these teams to finish strong down the stretch.

I have no idea how Ohio State has hung in the top 30 NET for so long.  Loss tonight that will finally move them out drops them to 11-11.

[RaceToTheTop 24,923]

Lot of Big Ten movement in my WAR recently.  Northwestern and Penn State have dropped out of the tournament in my ratings -- Northwestern second team out and Penn State is fifth out.  With tonight's loss, Charleston basically moved int a position of where they don't win their conference, they would not be an at large.

[LIHoosier 25,818]

Dropping truth bombs

 

[Uspshoosier 45,024]

1 hour ago, LIHoosier said:

Dropping truth bombs

 

They do a nice hour long breakdown every Monday and Friday.   4 really good bracketologist.   One on the left is Andy Bottoms who provides inside the hall with their bracketology and Rocco Miller on the right is awesome as well.   

[Uspshoosier 45,024]

Hoosiers jumped up 1 spot after that home win against the #3 NET team.  Went from 22 to 21.   

[RaceToTheTop 24,923]

Big Ten reranked WAR after yesterday:

1. Purdue 22-2  +7.82 (1 overall)
2. Indiana 16-7 +2.48 (26 overall)
3. Illinois 16-7 +2.04 (32 overall)
4. Maryland 16-7 +2.02 (33 overall)
5. Michigan St 14-9 +1.89 (34 overall)
6. Rutgers 16-7 +1.58 (40 overall)
7. Iowa 15-8 +1.54 (41 overall)
8. Wisconsin 13-8 +1.50 (42 overall)
9. Northwestern 15-7 +0.69 (51st overall)
10. Penn State 14-8 +0.62 (54th overall)
11. Michigan 12-10 -1.11
12. Ohio State 11-11 -1.68
13. Nebraska 10-13 -2.12
14. Minnesota 7-15 -4.71

Currently I have the top 8 teams in.  Northwestern is the fourth team out and Penn State is the sixth team out.

[Uspshoosier 45,024]

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/team-net-sheet?team=Indiana
 

A lot to like on this team sheet 

SOS-14th Sticks out for me    Already played 6 top 35 road games (2-4)    What makes the B1G and Big 12 so difficult is really no days off or no easy road wins to pad the total.   If you do play one you got to take care of business.   IU only had one road game against a team over 55 NET.   Other conferences give teams chances to get road wins at non tourney contender teams.   This can be a blessing and a curse.    A team like Ohio St who needs wins could use a gimme to stop the bleeding and stack some wins     Bubble teams in the ACC get Boston College, Louisville, Georgia Tech to get a chance to turn things around 

 

[Uspshoosier 45,024]

@RaceToTheTop

regarding MWC teams.    San Diego St probably 7-8 range, Boise St 7-8 range 

Nevada and New Mexico last 4 in or last 4 bye range. Definitely close to the cut line.   Utah St worked to do 

[RaceToTheTop 24,923]

14 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

@RaceToTheTop

regarding MWC teams.    San Diego St probably 7-8 range, Boise St 7-8 range 

Nevada and New Mexico last 4 in or last 4 bye range. Definitely close to the cut line.   Utah St worked to do 

Thanks.  My ratings like Utah State and Nevada more than others.  It ranks them as San Diego State, Utah State, Nevada, Boise State, New Mexico.  Has all five in the tourney.

One area I find my system bumping teams up is on road/neutral games played, especially if they are against top 100.  Penalties for losing those are small and gains are bigger.  For instance, I have a game at home against the #25 Pom, neutral court against #50, and road against #80 as all having the same value.  Beat them and get a +0.65 gain, lose and its a -0.35 loss.

In essence, it's saying that is equally difficult to beat Illinois when you are at home as it is to beat Penn State on a neutral court or Kent State at Kent State.

[Uspshoosier 45,024]

Pittsburghs resume is better than most would probably think.    6 true road wins with 3 of those against top 52 net teams and another top 100.  Nasty home loss to Florida St and getting blown out by Michigan on a neutral court are the black eyes on the resume but other then that it looks like a 8-9 seed resume.   The  closer teams are to the cut line the more committee will look for something that separates teams and 3 road wins against other teams projected in the field (as of now) will stick out more then the Q4 loss.   

[RaceToTheTop 24,923]

2 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Pittsburghs resume is better than most would probably think.    6 true road wins with 3 of those against top 52 net teams and another top 100.  Nasty home loss to Florida St and getting blown out by Michigan on a neutral court are the black eyes on the resume but other then that it looks like a 8-9 seed resume.   The  closer teams are to the cut line the more committee will look for something that separates teams and 3 road wins against other teams projected in the field (as of now) will stick out more then the Q4 loss.   

What my rating doesn't like about them is their six Pom 260+ home games and that two of their road wins (Louisville and Georgia Tech) don't really give them much push.  Paired with the Florida State home win, I have a replacement NCAA at large team going 8.42-0.58 in those nine games, so going 9-0 only gained them a +0.58.  They are 7-7 in their other games and +0.20 in those.  The +0.20 is certainly doable IF the other 9 games had been worth just even slight value -- i.e., a couple of teams in the high 100s instead of 260+.  But overall they are still right in the thick in things in my ratings and going .500 the rest of the way could still push them in.

[Uspshoosier 45,024]

33 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

What my rating doesn't like about them is their six Pom 260+ home games and that two of their road wins (Louisville and Georgia Tech) don't really give them much push.  Paired with the Florida State home win, I have a replacement NCAA at large team going 8.42-0.58 in those nine games, so going 9-0 only gained them a +0.58.  They are 7-7 in their other games and +0.20 in those.  The +0.20 is certainly doable IF the other 9 games had been worth just even slight value -- i.e., a couple of teams in the high 100s instead of 260+.  But overall they are still right in the thick in things in my ratings and going .500 the rest of the way could still push them in.

Can’t speak on your ratings I just know by what the committee values if they went .500 the rest of the way they are easily in the tournament.  Road wins are still road wins doesn’t matter what KenPom rates them.    They are 4-2 in Q1 with 3 road wins and 4-4 in Q2 with another road win.    Swept North Carolina and has 6 wins against the projected field.   That Georgia tech road win is a Q3 win for them.   I can’t speak for what other formulas have them but in the ones that matter Pittsburgh is a solid ncaa tournament team and they actually have some wiggle room to lose some games they shouldn’t