Analysis: IU is 8-1 in Big Ten play and Hoosier fans still feeling uneasy

I think if most people had told you that Indiana basketball would be 8-1 at the halfway point of the 2016 Big Ten season that most people would have been okay with that.

Actually, everyone would have been okay with that. It would especially be true if you also knew that eight games into the season Indiana was 5-3 and had just really struggled on the road in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge at Duke in a blowout loss.

If you also added the facts that the Hoosiers had won 13 of their last 14 games to reach that 8-1 lofty perch, everyone would have agreed they would have taken that any time.

Not to mention that at 8-1, Indiana would be in first place in the Big Ten (by a half game over Iowa) and ranked in the Associated Press top 20 by the end of January.

Oh and don’t forget the Hoosiers have won 18 of their first 22 games. And with 18 wins, there are only a couple of teams in the nation that have more wins than IU and those teams have 19.

Make no mistake about it, Indiana basketball is in a great place at 18-4 overall and 8-1 in the Big Ten.

So why do Indiana basketball fans have an uneasy feeling in their stomachs entering the month of February?

The reality is that many IU basketball fans are waiting for that other shoe to drop. And it’s completely understandable following IU’s narrow 74-68 victory over Minnesota Saturday at Assembly Hall. This was a Minnesota team that was 0-9 in the Big Ten heading into Saturday’s matchup and was ripe for the upset.

And that game came on the heels of Tuesday’s night tough overtime loss at Wisconsin when the Hoosiers were handed their first conference loss.

The reality is that fans have short memories. They forget that a week ago, Indiana was sitting there at 7-0 in the Big Ten having just defeated back-to-back Big Ten opponents by more than 30 points. In those two games, Indiana made 32 of 64 3-point field goals and looked like world beaters.

No, with college basketball, and rightfully so, it is what have you done for me lately? And lately (the last two games) was not nearly as much fun.

All of a sudden here came last week where the shots stopped falling. In two games last week against Wisconsin and Minnesota, the Hoosiers were 9 of 34 from beyond the 3-point arc. They were 2 of 18 Sunday against Minnesota in a building where they usually shoot really well. And face it, when you make 23 less 3-pointers in a two-game stretch than you did in the previous two, you’re not going to look nearly as unbeatable as you once did.

The elephant in the room for Indiana is its Big Ten schedule to date. Indiana has played Minnesota twice, Wisconsin twice, Rutgers, Nebraska, Ohio State, Illinois and Northwestern. Those teams have a combined Big Ten record of 19-42.

Or another way of looking at it: Indiana has yet to play five teams that are a combined 33-12 in Big Ten play, a group that includes Iowa, Purdue, Maryland, Michigan State and Michigan. The Hoosiers will play those five teams a total of six times over the next nine games.

Indiana had no control over its schedule to this point. The Hoosiers played the games that were on the schedule, and frankly they did really well. IU could just as easily be sitting here at 6-3 or 5-4 thinking about the next nine games and wondering what the realistic shot at an NCAA Tournament berth would be.

Instead, IU fans are looking down from their current position hoping the Hoosiers can get it all together beginning Tuesday night at Michigan.

Let me tell you why I’m still reasonably confident here. Here are three reasons why I think Indiana will win more than half of its remaining nine Big Ten games and be in the top four heading into the Big Ten Tournament and beyond.

1. THOMAS BRYANT: When Indiana needed him the most Saturday against Minnesota, the IU big man responded in a big way. When the outside shots weren’t falling, Indiana did a better job of playing through the big man and he took charge in the middle. He did a particularly nice job of getting his defender on his hip and then taking the ball strong to the basket. He was also big on the offensive glass and had a couple of plays in particular down the stretch that were big in IU finding a way to edge a Minnesota team that should never have been that close to the Hoosiers. But in recent years, if Indiana had a 2 for 18 performance from 3-point range the Hoosiers would have been dead in the water. Because they have Bryant roaming the middle that’s not necessarily the case right now.

2. THOSE 3-POINT SHOTS ARE GOING TO FALL AGAIN: This team has too good of shooters for a slump like that to linger. You have several guys who can legitimately knock down the ball from distance. And when that’s the case you always have a chance. Can I explain what happened Saturday against Minnesota from distance? There’s no explanation. How can Robert Johnson look so good and so confident for the last few weeks and struggle so mightily against the Golden Gophers. Johnson was 1 for 6 against Minnesota but what was worse is that the shots he missed were all good looks. Nick Zeisloft, who has had a few big games of late, missed all four of his 3-point attempts against Minnesota, too. Remember, this is the Minnesota team that Zeisloft was lights out against just a few weeks ago in Minneapolis when he made 5 of 8 from distance including four in a row in a stretch late in the first half. But those shots will all fall again. That’s the thing with shooters. They’re going to keep shooting them and the shots will fall again.

3. INDIANA ALWAYS PLAYS TO THE LEVEL OF ITS COMPETITION: This has been true for a while and it has been true of late for Indiana. I told people Saturday before the Minnesota game that it didn’t matter that this was a matchup of 7-1 versus 0-9. Indiana doesn’t handle those situations well. I would have felt more comfortable Saturday playing Iowa than Minnesota. And I’m sure Indiana would have played a lot better against Iowa than it did against the Gophers. Especially at Assembly Hall where IU rides that wave of momentum it gets from playing before its raucous home fans. But think about it. When Indiana played Ohio State (currently 6-3 in conference) at home, the Hoosiers were fired up and ready to play and led by 30 at halftime. When IU played Northwestern, a team that was playing better and had just taken Maryland to overtime on the road a few days before, the Hoosiers looked really impressive. But in two games against Minnesota and one against Rutgers in particular, IU looked lucky to escape in any of those games. And those two teams are a combined 0-18 in Big Ten play at this point. Go figure.

There’s no question we’re going to learn a great deal about Indiana basketball over the next nine games. But the schedule withstanding to date, I think this is a pretty good IU basketball team and I think the Hoosiers will come out of this stretch at 5-4 or better. And myself, I’d take 13-5 in the Big Ten any day of the week.