College Bball Thread

[Stuhoo]

Oh Rutger.

7 points in about 11 minutes and down 23-7 at Penn State.

 

[Uspshoosier]

14 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Blind resume (USPS, I know you know who the two teams are)  -- which team do you think has a better NET ranking?

Team A:

Overall record 17-11

Q1:  5-6,    Q2:  3-2    Q3:  2-3   Q4:  7-0

NET SOS:  45

 

Team B

Overall record 17-11

Q1:  3-7    Q2:  4-4   Q3:  5-0   Q4:  5-0

NET SOS:  32

   The win on the road against a top 5 NET team is the difference maker between the 2. 

[RaceToTheTop]

11 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

   The win on the road against a top 5 NET team is the difference maker between the 2. 

I know.  Just my opinion that one win isn't worth three quad three losses.  Higher upside on Team A, but pretty low floor.

Anyway, team B going to have a chance stake their claim by winning tonight and there is a chance they could meet once more in the BTT in the 8/9 game.

For those that don't know, A is Rutgers, B is Penn State.

[Demo]

15 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Oh Rutger.

7 points in about 11 minutes and down 23-7 at Penn State.

 

Wow, do they look lost on offense. I can’t figure out what they’re trying to get done.

[reconmkd]

BTN just showed the conference standing with us I basically being in 5th place and Michigan at 3. WTF BTN?

[hoosiersoxfan]

1 minute ago, reconmkd said:

BTN just showed the conference standing with us I basically being in 5th place and Michigan at 3. WTF BTN?

IU is in 5th right now based on tie breakers. They are 1-3 combined against the other teams tied for 2nd place currently. 

[Uspshoosier]

5 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I know.  Just my opinion that one win isn't worth three quad three losses.  Higher upside on Team A, but pretty low floor.

KenPom has team A at 36 and Team B at 49 so it’s not just the NET that has Team A with the better number.    

[RaceToTheTop]

Separately, how is it possible that Kansas could be FIFTH in net?  The Jayhawks have more quad 1 wins than anyone in the in the top nine have games.

Quad 1:  15-5    2:  3-0    3:  3-0     4:  3-0

[LIHoosier]

5 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Separately, how is it possible that Kansas could be FIFTH in net?  The Jayhawks have more quad 1 wins than anyone in the in the top nine have games.

Quad 1:  15-5    2:  3-0    3:  3-0     4:  3-0

NET (and predictive metrics in general) care more about beating nobodies by 30-40 than playing and winning a bunch of tight games against other good teams.

[RaceToTheTop]

12 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

KenPom has team A at 36 and Team B at 49 so it’s not just the NET that has Team A with the better number.    

I know, although Pom is a completely predictive tool and not reflective.  While at this moment I would say that Rutger isn't as good as Penn State, (Rutger is getting woodshedded right now) I understand the predictive measures would say they were due to pointspread in games.

From a purely 'did you win?' standpoint, though, I don't.  And I'm not so much advocating for Penn State as understanding I am trying to understand why.  My numbers -- really just for my own use and not meant to be predictive of what the committee will say -- has Penn State as the 52nd best team and Rutger at 56th based solely on wins/losses/schedule. 

Funny thing is that the results of tonight's game:

A Penn State win moves them from 52 to 48 and drops Rutger from 56 to 58.  48 would be list team in, 58 would be 7th team out (three of the ten spots between 48 and 58 are auto bids).

A Rutger win moves Rutger from 56 to 48 and drops Penn State from 52 to 58.  So in essence, I have the winner of the game as barely in, the loser SOL.

[Uspshoosier]

3 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I know, although Pom is a completely predictive tool and not reflective.  While at this moment I would say that Rutger isn't as good as Penn State, (Rutger is getting woodshedded right now) I understand the predictive measures would say they were due to pointspread in games.

From a purely 'did you win?' standpoint, though, I don't.  And I'm not so much advocating for Penn State as understanding I am trying to understand why.  My numbers -- really just for my own use and not meant to be predictive of what the committee will say -- has Penn State as the 52nd best team and Rutger at 56th based solely on wins/losses/schedule. 

Funny thing is that the results of tonight's game:

A Penn State win moves them from 52 to 48 and drops Rutger from 56 to 58.  48 would be list team in, 58 would be 7th team out (three of the ten spots between 48 and 58 are auto bids).

A Rutger win moves Rutger from 56 to 48 and drops Penn State from 52 to 58.  So in essence, I have the winner of the game as barely in, the loser SOL.

Results based KPI has Rutgers at 45 and Penn st 52 so closer together but still has Rutgers with the better number 

[Uspshoosier]

WCC got to the point in the tiebreakers where the NET determined the number 1 seed.   Whichever team had the highest NET got the 1 seed.    St Marys (7) and the Zags(9).   St Mary’s got the 1 seed 

[RaceToTheTop]

8 minutes ago, LIHoosier said:

NET (and predictive metrics in general) care more about beating nobodies by 30-40 than playing and winning a bunch of tight games against other good teams.

NET, though, isn't solely predictive.  It's supposed to be a combo of reflective and predictive.

[LIHoosier]

3 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

NET, though, isn't solely predictive.  It's supposed to be a combo of reflective and predictive.

It does weigh road wins heavily (good), but it seems for example St. Mary's gets more credit for winning at Pacific or San Diego by 15 than Kansas does winning at Texas or Baylor by 2.

[RaceToTheTop]

10 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Results based KPI has Rutgers at 45 and Penn st 52 so closer together but still has Rutgers with the better number 

Sure, but Pom has Rutgers with a better SOS -- 36 -- than Penn State (49), so the two teams having the same record it would make sense that the one with the tougher schedule has the better overall ranking.  What I'm not agreeing with on NET is that Penn State and Rutgers have the same overall record and NET says Penn State's schedule was tougher but then has Rutger 21 better in NET.

Again, I know it comes down to the predictive element which is an inexact science.  Just seems strange that Pom has Rutgers and Penn State closer together whether in predictive and reflective does than NET does, especially when NET says Penn State's schedule is tougher and Pom says the opposite.

[RaceToTheTop]

3 minutes ago, LIHoosier said:

It does weigh road wins heavily (good), but it seems for example St. Mary's gets more credit for winning at Pacific or San Diego by 15 than Kansas does winning at Texas or Baylor by 2.

Then again, North Texas leads the country in wins away from home (9 on the road, 4 on neutral) put their 21-6 record only puts them at a NET of 51, so it can't be just wins against lower tier teams on the road.

[RaceToTheTop]

Meanwhile, looks like the two teams in discussion here are going to go the wire.  Penn State had a 19 point lead, down to 5 on Rutgers with Rutger going to the line at the under 4.

[Uspshoosier]

Just now, RaceToTheTop said:

Meanwhile, looks like the two teams in discussion here are going to go the wire.  Penn State had a 19 point lead, down to 5 on Rutgers with Rutger going to the line at the under 4.

Rutgers isn’t the same team without Mag.  If they keep losing and get closer to the bubble with a non con sos in the 300’s they could be in trouble 

[RaceToTheTop]

Tie game at Penn State!

[RaceToTheTop]

Big defensive play by PSU.  Chance to go to the line to break the tie with 1:31 left.