College Bball Thread

[Uspshoosier]

The NET is still in its infancy stage.   It’s by no means perfect.   One thing they need to do is release the algorithm for how they come up with the number.   Keeping it secret is a big mistake in my opinion 

[RaceToTheTop]

6 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

The NET is still in its infancy stage.   It’s by no means perfect.   One thing they need to do is release the algorithm for how they come up with the number.   Keeping it secret is a big mistake in my opinion 

Simple question:  is there ANY logical algorithm that should put Colgate at 11, Penn State at 31, and Indiana at 51?  The bottom line about them not releasing their algorithm IMO is they don't want teams to game their system's errors. 

[RaceToTheTop]

8 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

The NET is still in its infancy stage.   It’s by no means perfect.   One thing they need to do is release the algorithm for how they come up with the number.   Keeping it secret is a big mistake in my opinion 

But they have tons of past data to work with -- nothing kept them from running their NET data on past seasons.  The same errors that occur now would have occurred then.

[Uspshoosier]

20 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Simple question:  is there ANY logical algorithm that should put Colgate at 11, Penn State at 31, and Indiana at 51?  The bottom line about them not releasing their algorithm IMO is they don't want teams to game their system's errors. 

No probably like there shouldn’t of been any logical algorithm that had 16-15 Purdue team ahead of a ton of other teams but last year they were.  

[RaceToTheTop]

18 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Kenpom himself says to not use his metric during selection process because that’s not what it’s for.   He also says his ratings each year need time.  His algorithm uses last years data at the beginning so it takes some to time.    

The fact that Pom says not to use his metric (I understand that it is predictive instead of reflective) yet is STILL a much better system than NET speaks volumes to me.  I do understand that he uses the previous year (as well as some returning player factors) as a starting factor, I believe) but if I remember correctly, the previous data disappears after about ten games.  I also think you'd never see a Colgate anywhere near the top ten after 9 games of data.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

17 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

The NET is still in its infancy stage.   It’s by no means perfect.   One thing they need to do is release the algorithm for how they come up with the number.   Keeping it secret is a big mistake in my opinion 

Because they know they'd get picked apart for how terrible it is. They also know they can change whatever they want to fit whatever they want. 

[Uspshoosier]

1 minute ago, brumdog45 said:

The fact that Pom says not to use his metric (I understand that it is predictive instead of reflective) yet is STILL a much better system than NET speaks volumes to me.  I do understand that he uses the previous year (as well as some returning player factors) as a starting factor, I believe) but if I remember correctly, the previous data disappears after about ten games.  I also think you'd never see a Colgate anywhere near the top ten after 9 games of data.

They had a meeting with Ken Pom and the others before they came up with the NET.  Ken Pom had a pod cast about it back in the day.   That’s where I found out he isn’t comfortable with them using his metric as a selection tool.   Everyone agrees while it could be better and hopefully tweaks over time will fix it that it’s a much better solution then rpi 

[RaceToTheTop]

13 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

No probably like there shouldn’t of been any logical algorithm that had 16-15 Purdue team ahead of a ton of other teams but last year they were.  

Yeah, I think that came up in pretty much all of the models.  That's an error in some of the point based algoirthms in that they don't cap margin of victory.  Purdue won 7 games by 20 or more, including two in the Big Ten and lost just 1 by 20 or more.  A final margin of 30 doesn't tell us anything more than a final margin of 20.

I understand the issue with Pom and Sagarin as a pure NCAA tournament selector in that going 2-5 with a net of zero points is equivalent to going 5-2 with a net of zero points.....but then I look at the NET ratings, which are SUPPOSED to make winning actually important, and the results they are yielding in terms of where teams are ranked look worse than the rating systems which aren't awarding victories.

[RaceToTheTop]

7 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

They had a meeting with Ken Pom and the others before they came up with the NET.  Ken Pom had a pod cast about it back in the day.   That’s where I found out he isn’t comfortable with them using his metric as a selection tool.   Everyone agrees while it could be better and hopefully tweaks over time will fix it that it’s a much better solution then rpi 

I wish that Pom would create a second set of rankings where margin of victory was capped at 20 or so.

[HoosierAloha]

Maryland off to a good start while Minny looks like they're asleep at the wheel

[Uspshoosier]

Lafayette is about to lose to Loyola MD, again proving the college basketball adage, "it's hard to beat a team 5 times in one season"

ken pomeroy 

they have played 6 times this year 

[Uspshoosier]

11 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

Maryland off to a good start while Minny looks like they're asleep at the wheel

Maryland looking to get to an even .500 this year.  They are 9-10 against D1 opponents 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

So are we supposed to continue acting like Penn State was a good win?

[Uspshoosier]

7 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

So are we supposed to continue acting like Penn State was a good win?

You can do what you want but as long as it’s a Q2 win then I suppose I will continue to look at it as a resume building win.  So will Purdue, Ohio St, Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

1 minute ago, Uspshoosier said:

You can do what you want but as long as it’s a Q2 win then I suppose I will continue to look at it as a resume building win.  So will Purdue, Ohio St, Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin 

So basically look at it with no logic? Man I can't wait to have such a great win over a team who can't even get over .500. 

[Uspshoosier]

Just now, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

So basically look at it with no logic? Man I can't wait to have such a great win over a team who can't even get over .500. 

Sure 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

Sure 

I mean at some point you can't look at it black and white. It's clear, Penn State isn't good. Theyre an outlier just like Colgate. At some point, you just scoot the win to the side and realize it's not a meaningful win and only a bad loss. 

[Uspshoosier]

2 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

So basically look at it with no logic? Man I can't wait to have such a great win over a team who can't even get over .500. 

Why do care so much how other people view it?    You don’t think it’s a good win.  Isn’t that good enough.   You losing sleep over people thinking a penn st win is a good win.   I’m sure not losing sleep over people thinking opposite of what I think 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

28 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Why do care so much how other people view it?    You don’t think it’s a good win.  Isn’t that good enough.   You losing sleep over people thinking a penn st win is a good win.   I’m sure not losing sleep over people thinking opposite of what I think 

No sleep lost. But if the standard is set that Penn State is a good win because how dare you look at it objectively, then it makes college basketball a complete joke. 

[Uspshoosier]

4 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

No sleep lost. But if the standard is set that Penn State is a good win because how dare you look at it objectively, then it makes college basketball a complete joke. 

So nothing new then?  You have  thought college basketball is a joke since you have been on here?   But here you are in the college basketball thread talking about something you think is a joke.    Next year we will be talking about a different team and how it’s a joke people keep calling it a good win, or how college basketball is down and if you don’t see it your not being objective or take your pick.    

arizona st up 9 on Oregon st with 12 to play