STATS!!! A Look at When the Hoosiers Win & Lose

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

During the Iowa game, I tweeted out a couple times that Indiana was 50-6 in the Tom Crean era when scoring more than 80 points.  Many people took some flack at that saying that 49 of those wins were probably against cellar dwellers.  I decided to look a little bit deeper into this.

 

Initial Thoughts

It's been pretty obvious as a Hoosier that when Indiana is playing their game they are hard to beat.  The games Indiana loses tend to be ones where we don't control the tempo and pace of the game.  I'm sure you're thinking "DUH..." right now, but let me dig a little deeper into the stats during the Tom Crean era for you to really see the picture on how our Hoosiers will win.  I used every game from Coach Crean's tenure in Bloomington for this analysis.  Some might argue to throw out the first two seasons data, but I still think this is reflective on how the Hoosiers need to push pace to win games.

 

Indiana's Record Based on Indiana's Scoring

 

The first chart, shows you Indiana's record compared to how many points they score.  I went ahead and split up Indiana's opponents into 4 main buckets ( RPI Top 50, 51-100, 100-200, 200+).  I also included another column to show Indiana's record vs AP Top 25 teams since that is more popular than RPI among the masses.

 

RAW DATA:

 

While looking at the actual records based on points scored is good, it's actually easier to see it in the following manner.  When reviewing this chart, look at it as "When Indiana Scores at least this many points, their record is...."

 

CUMULATIVE DATA: When Indiana Scores Over XX Points

• Indiana is 50-6 when scoring at least 80 points (10-3 vs RPI Top 50)
• Indiana scoring over 70 points is actually still a really strong indicator of winning.

 

The Reverse Chart:  When Indiana Scores Under XX Points

 

• Indiana's record under Tom Crean is HORRIBLE when the Hoosiers can't score 60 points. 3-43 is ridiculous.  

 

Indiana's Record Based on Their Opponent's Scoring

 

After doing this for Indiana's scoring, I thought it would be interesting to compare and evaluate Indiana's defense.  The following charts are laid out in the same manner as the above three, but they show Indiana's record based on how many points the Hoosiers give up.

 

RAW DATA:

 

As you can imagine, Indiana's records are quite impressive when their defensive effort is strong by limiting their opponents to under 60 points, the Hoosiers are 46-5.

 

CUMULATIVE DATA: When IU's Opponent Scores Over XX Points

 

The Reverse Chart:  When Indiana's Opponent Scores Under XX Points

 

Again, you read this chart as  "When Indiana holds their opponent under 80 points, Indiana is 94-70.  Shows the cumulative records combined from the raw data above.

 

 

Conclusion:

 

While this data isn't ground breaking or rocket science, it is nice to see what the Hoosiers will need to do as a predictor for upcoming teams.  Especially as we watch the start of the games and notice the pace of play.  We know if Indiana is targeted to score in the 50s against an AP Top 25 team, we probably aren't going to win that game as evidenced by our historical record of 1-19 for that situation.

 

Indiana needs to score points in bunches to win.  A fast paced game puts Indiana at an advantage as evidenced by Indiana's impressive 50-6 record when scoring 80+ points in a game.  Based on this information, and what we saw against Iowa, Indiana should honestly shoot the ball within the first 10-15 seconds of the shot clock.  This will not only decrease the amount of time we can turn the ball over, it will also give more opportunities for offense rebounds and transition play.  

 

If the Hoosiers want to make a run to the Big Dance, they'll have to play the following RPI Teams:

#22 Ohio State

#52 Nebraska

#11 Michigan

 

We'll call them all in the 1-50 RPI bucket for ease of use.  The Hoosiers need to get to atleast 70 points vs all three teams to have a shot at winning.  Indiana's past record vs Top 50 RPI teams when scoring at least 70 points is 21-8.  That should get the Hoosiers 2 wins out of those three if trends continue which leaves us two Big Ten Tournament games away from the Big Dance.

 

This post is primarily a place for me to post these charts as I guarantee you'll see BtownBanners tweeting out the numbers when Indiana hits the different levels in upcoming games.  I'm hoping I can tweet "Since Indiana just scored their 90th point, they have a 96% chance of winning (22-1)

 

A kid can dream right?

[schoosier 3,480]

Excellent analysis! These days with many coaches now taking the Brad Stevens statistical approach to everything from personnel to set plays and fouling, I would not be surprised if Tom Crean doesn't realize this. His team's results speak for themselves. Even without these excellent statistics you have provided, I think most of us can see his teams success when they get out and run and force the pace. I have never understood why Crean has never pressed or trapped consistently to try to make even the slowest of teams to speed up. Please forward this to Crean asap and thanks for your efforts.

[JSHoosier 20,262]

In summation, it's the same we've been saying for a while.  If we can turn it into a track meet we have a good chance.  Force us to play in the half court and we suck something awful.

[ou812dude 3,326]

Bottom line...score a lot...your chances of winning increases...

score a little...your chances of winning decreases...

 

by the way...

 

the same philosophy applies to human reproduction... :ninja:

[OliviaPope40 6,520]

Nicely done 41 it all makes sense now if we could just make our RPI better.

[chicagoHOOSIER 1,051]

During the Iowa game, I tweeted out a couple times that Indiana was 50-6 in the Tom Crean era when scoring more than 80 points.  Many people took some flack at that saying that 49 of those wins were probably against cellar dwellers.  I decided to look a little bit deeper into this.

 

Initial Thoughts

It's been pretty obvious as a Hoosier that when Indiana is playing their game they are hard to beat.  The games Indiana loses tend to be ones where we don't control the tempo and pace of the game.  I'm sure you're thinking "DUH..." right now, but let me dig a little deeper into the stats during the Tom Crean era for you to really see the picture on how our Hoosiers will win.  I used every game from Coach Crean's tenure in Bloomington for this analysis.  Some might argue to throw out the first two seasons data, but I still think this is reflective on how the Hoosiers need to push pace to win games.

 

Indiana's Record Based on Indiana's Scoring

 

The first chart, shows you Indiana's record compared to how many points they score.  I went ahead and split up Indiana's opponents into 4 main buckets ( RPI Top 50, 51-100, 100-200, 200+).  I also included another column to show Indiana's record vs AP Top 25 teams since that is more popular than RPI among the masses.

 

RAW DATA:

 

While looking at the actual records based on points scored is good, it's actually easier to see it in the following manner.  When reviewing this chart, look at it as "When Indiana Scores at least this many points, their record is...."

 

CUMULATIVE DATA: When Indiana Scores Over XX Points

• Indiana is 50-6 when scoring at least 80 points (10-3 vs RPI Top 50)
• Indiana scoring over 70 points is actually still a really strong indicator of winning.

 

The Reverse Chart:  When Indiana Scores Under XX Points

 

• Indiana's record under Tom Crean is HORRIBLE when the Hoosiers can't score 60 points. 3-43 is ridiculous.  

 

Indiana's Record Based on Their Opponent's Scoring

 

After doing this for Indiana's scoring, I thought it would be interesting to compare and evaluate Indiana's defense.  The following charts are laid out in the same manner as the above three, but they show Indiana's record based on how many points the Hoosiers give up.

 

RAW DATA:

 

As you can imagine, Indiana's records are quite impressive when their defensive effort is strong by limiting their opponents to under 60 points, the Hoosiers are 46-5.

 

CUMULATIVE DATA: When IU's Opponent Scores Over XX Points

 

The Reverse Chart:  When Indiana's Opponent Scores Under XX Points

 

Again, you read this chart as  "When Indiana holds their opponent under 80 points, Indiana is 94-70.  Shows the cumulative records combined from the raw data above.

 

 

Conclusion:

 

While this data isn't ground breaking or rocket science, it is nice to see what the Hoosiers will need to do as a predictor for upcoming teams.  Especially as we watch the start of the games and notice the pace of play.  We know if Indiana is targeted to score in the 50s against an AP Top 25 team, we probably aren't going to win that game as evidenced by our historical record of 1-19 for that situation.

 

Indiana needs to score points in bunches to win.  A fast paced game puts Indiana at an advantage as evidenced by Indiana's impressive 50-6 record when scoring 80+ points in a game.  Based on this information, and what we saw against Iowa, Indiana should honestly shoot the ball within the first 10-15 seconds of the shot clock.  This will not only decrease the amount of time we can turn the ball over, it will also give more opportunities for offense rebounds and transition play.  

 

If the Hoosiers want to make a run to the Big Dance, they'll have to play the following RPI Teams:

#22 Ohio State

#52 Nebraska

#11 Michigan

 

We'll call them all in the 1-50 RPI bucket for ease of use.  The Hoosiers need to get to atleast 70 points vs all three teams to have a shot at winning.  Indiana's past record vs Top 50 RPI teams when scoring at least 70 points is 21-8.  That should get the Hoosiers 2 wins out of those three if trends continue which leaves us two Big Ten Tournament games away from the Big Dance.

 

This post is primarily a place for me to post these charts as I guarantee you'll see BtownBanners tweeting out the numbers when Indiana hits the different levels in upcoming games.  I'm hoping I can tweet "Since Indiana just scored their 90th point, they have a 96% chance of winning (22-1)

 

A kid can dream right?

 

 

Nice work.

 

I would be interested in testing your theory with stats that tell us how well we score when we shoot early in the shot clock.

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

[quote name="chicagoHOOSIER" post="43191" timestamp="1393636568"]Nice work.

I would be interested in testing your theory with stats that tell us how well we score when we shoot early in the shot clock.[/quote]

If those existed I'd be ALL OVER them. Gotta be somewhere right?


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners

[chicagoHOOSIER 1,051]

If those existed I'd be ALL OVER them. Gotta be somewhere right?


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners

 

If anybody can find them, I would put my money on you being the guy to do it!

[coachmayhew 1,414]

This thread takes me back a few years when btownbanners was really into the numbers, +/- etc.

Sent from my Venue 8 3830 using BtownBanners mobile app

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

[quote name="coachmayhew" post="43210" timestamp="1393640070"]This thread takes me back a few years when btownbanners was really into the numbers, +/- etc. Sent from my Venue 8 3830 using BtownBanners mobile app[/quote] Would love to get back to those times.. Miss the +/- analysis after every game. Unfortunately this little thing DOMINATES my evenings... [attachment=484:ImageUploadedByBtownBanners1393640760.903743.jpg][attachment=485:ImageUploadedByBtownBanners1393640772.571503.jpg][attachment=486:ImageUploadedByBtownBanners1393640785.937064.jpg] [attachment=487:ImageUploadedByBtownBanners1393640800.671338.jpg] Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners

[BornAHoosierFan 15]

Love the stats and the analysis.  One question though, why does that little cutie not have on IU attire?  

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

On pace for 44 points... That's not good


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