PC stellar: 2023-24 simmed season

[Scotty R 3,674]

1 hour ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Pc stellar limits teams to 10 man rosters.  In the case of Gunn, using Torvik ratings and expected improvement hid three point shooting percentage would still be so low to render him unplayable.  While I certainly think that last years shooting as a fluke, going on what has been established in game play last year doesn’t make him very good.

iMO, I also think at best he’s the 10th man in the rotation and will not be a big factor this year.

I disagree on Gunn because unless Newton is 100% I think Gunn will start the season ahead of him in the depth chart.  I think Leal and Walker will be the players iyr of the rotation 

[TheWatShot 15,488]

21 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

IU is now 15-8 and 7-5 in conference.

I know this is all simulated, but man, I think it will be pretty disappointing if that's our record after 23 games. 

 

But I kind of have to call BS on any simulator that has us winning at Wisconsin, let alone by double digits. 

[RaceToTheTop 31,063]

6 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

I know this is all simulated, but man, I think it will be pretty disappointing if that's our record after 23 games. 

 

But I kind of have to call BS on any simulator that has us winning at Wisconsin, let alone by double digits. 

Kansas, two of three in Texas, U Conn, Louisville, and Auburn preconference.  I would say 8-3 in conference is to be expected and I would take 7-5 in conference.

[RaceToTheTop 31,063]

Game 24:  IU at Rutgers.  Pointspread was a pick'em.

Rutgers goes into half up 39-37, but the second half was all IU.  IU wins, 81-64.  IU improves to 16-8 and 8-5 in conference.

Rutgers stats:  26/67 fg (39%), 3/12 threes (25%), 9/14 ft (64%), 37 reb, 20 fouls, 13 ast, 3 st, 3 bs, 12 to, 64 pts

IU stats

• Johnson:  36 min, 8/14 fg, 0/1 threes, 12/12 ft, 3 reb, 4 fouls, 2 ast, 3 st, 3 to, 28 pts
• Galloway: 28 min, 3/5 fg, 1/2 threes, 6 rebs, 1 ast, 1 st, 1 to, 7 pts
• Mgbako: 19 min, 2/5 fg, 2/2 threes, 2/2 ft, 6 reb, 3 fouls, 1 ast, 8 pts
• Reneau 25 min, 3/5 fg, 2/2 ft, 8 reb, 4 fouls, 1 ast, 2 st, 1 to, 8 pts
• Ware 28 min, 3/7 fg, 0/1 threes, 8 reb, 2 fouls, 2 ast, 3 to, 6 pts
• Sparks 13 min, 3/6 fg, 2/4 ft, 4 rebs, 1 foul, 1 ast, 1 st, 8 pts
• Banks 17 min, 3/7 fg, 1/3 threes, 3/4 ft, 3 reb, 2 fouls, 1 ast, 1 bs, 10 pts
• Cupps 14 min, 1/3 fg, 0/1 threes, 2 reb, 1 to, 2 pts
• Newton 10 min, 1/2 fg, 0/1 threes, 0/1 ft, 1 to, 2 pts
• Walker 12 min, 1/3 fg, 0/1 ft, 2 reb, 2 pts
• TOTALS:  28/57 fg (49%), 4/12 threes (33%), 21/26 ft (81%), 42 reb, 16 fouls, 9 ast, 7 st, 1 bs, 10 to, 81 pts

IU stats to date:

• Johnson 33 mpg, 132/304 fg (43%), 26/77 threes (34%), 115/141 ft (82%), 4.5 reb, 4.4 ast, 1.2 st, 3.3 to, 16.8 pts
• Mgbako 32 mpg, 108/233 fg (47%), 29/70 threes (41%), 48/61 ft (79%), 6.2 reb, 1.3 ast, 0.9 st, 0.5 bs, 1.7 to, 12.2 pts
• Ware 29 mpg, 103/223 fg (46%), 14/42 threes (33%), 53/67 ft (79%), 7.5 reb, 1.6 ast, 1.1 st, 2.0 bs, 1.7 to, 11.4 pts
• Reneau 22 mpg, 90/148 fg (61%), 0/2 threes (0%), 48/57 ft (84%), 6.2 reb, 0.8 ast, 0.8 st, 0.4 bs, 1.8 to, 9.5 pts
• Banks 18 mpg, 67/121 fg (54%), 10/25 threes (40%), 38/63 ft (60%), 3.2 reb, 0.7 ast, 0.4 st, 0.3 bs, 1.5 to, 7.4 pts
• Galloway 29 mpg, 58/134 fg (43%), 19/44 threes (44%), 18/27 ft (67%), 4.2 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.0 st, 0.2 bs, 0.8 to, 6.4 pts
• Sparks 13 mpg, 52/101 fg (51%), 20/45 ft (44%), 4.6 reb, 0.7 ast, 0.4 st, 0.3 bs, 1.5 to, 5.2 pts
• Cupps 16 mpg, 31/80 fg (39%), 10/32 threes (31%), 11/12 ft (92%), 1.2 reb, 0.9 ast, 0.6 st, 0.3 to, 3.5 pts
• Walker 8 mpg, 25/53 fg (46%), 11/15 ft (73%), 1.2 reb, 0.5 ast, 0.2 st, 0.4 to, 2.6 pts
• Newton 5 mpg, 18/40 fg (45%), 4/13 threes (31%), 1/6 ft (17%), 0.3 reb, 0.2 ast, 0.1 st, 0.2 to, 1.6 pts
•  

[RaceToTheTop 31,063]

Game 25:  Wisconsin at Indiana.  The Hoosiers rode a 46 to 31 rebound advantage to secure an 81-74 win.

Wisconsin stats:  30/65 fg (46%), 3/20 threes (15%), 11/14 ft (79%), 31 reb, 25 fouls, 13 ast, 4 st, 9 to, 74 pts

IU stats:

• Johnson  34 min, 5/15 fg, 3/4 ft, 6 reb, 1 foul, 7 ast, 3 to, 13 pts
• Galloway 28 min, 2/7 fg, 1/2 threes, 1/4 ft, 1 reb, 2 fouls, 2 ast, 2 to, 6 pts
• Mgbako 31 min, 6/10 fg, 2/3 threes, 2/2 ft, 8 reb, 1 ast, 2 st, 1 bs, 1 to, 16 pts
• Reneau 24 min, 3/6 fg, 8/11 ft, 9 reb, 2 fouls, 14 pts
• Ware 29 min, 6/10 fg, 2/2 threes, 1/1 ft, 8 reb, 3 fouls, 1 ast, 4 st, 1 bs, 1 to, 15 pts
• Sparks 11 min 2/5 fg, 1/2 ft, 6 reb, 4 fouls, 1 ast, 1 st, 1 to, 5 pts
• Banks 17 min, 2/5 fg, 0/1 threes, 1/1 ft, 6 reb, 3 fouls, 5 pts
• Cupps 15 min, 2/3 fg, 1 reb, 1 ast, 1 to, 4 pts
• Newton 3 min, 1/1 fg, 1/1 ft, 3 pts
• Walker 9 min, 0/4 fg, 1 reb, 1 foul, 1 to, 0 pts
• IU stats  29/66 fg (44%), 5/8 threes (63%), 18/26 ft (69%), 46 reb, 16 fouls, 13 ast, 7 st, 2 bs, 10 to, 81 pts

The Hoosiers are now 17-8, 9-5 in conference

 

[JimmerNoe 1,213]

I keep thinking “man we are not having a great projected season” and we are still 9-5 in conference. It really puts into perspective how awful we were in conference for that several year stretch we couldn’t break .500 for the season. Please never let us fall back to .500 being the norm!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[RaceToTheTop 31,063]

Game 26:  IU at Purdue.  Zach Edey show in the first half but IU does battle back and Purdue leads just by two at half, 43-41.  IU takes their first second half lead with 7:44 left at 62-61.  But foul problems plagued IU the rest of the way and Purdue pulled the season sweep, winning 82-73.  IU is now 17-9 and 9-6 in conference

Purdue stats

• Smith 31 min, 3/6 fg, 1/3 threes, 1/2 ft, 1 reb, 2 fouls, 6 ast, 8 pts
• Loyer 31 min, 4/10 fg, 1/6 threes, 1/1 ft, 1 reb, 2 fouls, 1 st, 5 to, 10 pts
• Morton 28 min, 1/5 fg, 0/2 threes, 1/2 ft, 3 reb, 3 fouls, 2 ast, 2 st, 1 to, 3 pts
• Furst 26 min, 3/6 fg, 1/1 threes, 2/5 ft, 5 reb, 1 foul, 1 ast, 1 bs, 1 to , 9 pts
• Edey 33 min, 11/14 fg, 12/13 ft, 18 reb, 3 fouls, 2 ast, 1 bs, 4 to, 34 pts
• Gillis 17 min, 2/4 fg, 1/2 threes, 4 reb, 3 fouls, 2 ast, 1 st, 1 b, 5 pts
• Jones 17 min, 1/3 fg, 0/1 threes, 3/3 ft, 1 reb, 1 ast, 2 st, 5 pts
• Kaufman-Renn 7 min, 2/5 fg, 0/2 threes, 2/4 ft, 1 ast, 1 st, 6 pts
• Colvin 3 min, 1/1 fg, 1 reb, 1 to, 2 pts
• Heide 7 min, 1 to, 0 pts
• TOTALS 28/54 fg (52%), 4/17 threes (24%), 22/30 ft (73%), 34 reb, 14 fouls, 15 ast, 8 st, 3 bs, 13 to, 82 pts

IU stats

• Johnson 27 min, 4/11 fg, 1/3 threes, 3/4 ft, 2 reb, 5 fouls, 4 ast, 4 to, 12 pts
• Galloway 28 min, 0/4 fg, 5 reb, 4 fouls, 3 ast, 2 st, 1 bs, 1 to, 0 pts
• Mgbako 33 min, 6/11 fg, 1/4 threes, 0/1 ft, 4 reb, 2 fouls, 2 to, 13 pts
• Reneau 22 min, 7/8 fg, 2/2 ft, 4 reb, 4 fouls, 2 ast, 2 to, 16 pts
• Ware 28 min, 2/11fg, 0/2 threes, 0/3 ft, 11 reb, 4 fouls, 3 ast, 2 bs, 2 to, 4 pts
• Sparks 12 min, 3/4 fg, 1/2 ft, 4 reb, 4 fouls, 1 ast, 1 st, 2 to, 7 pts
• Banks 18 min, 4/10 fg, 1/2 threes, 0/1 ft, 3 reb, 1 foul, 1 to, 9 pts
• Cupps 18 min, 3/3 fg, 2/2 threes, 2 reb, 2 fouls, 1 to, 8 pts
• Newton 9 min, 0/2 fg, 1 st, 1 to, 0 pts
• Walker 7 min, 2/2 fg, 1 reb, 4 pts
• TOTALS  31/66 fg (47%), 5/13 threes (38%), 6/13 ft (46%), 36 reb, 26 fouls, 13 ast, 4 st, 3 bs, 16 to, 73 pts

YEAR STATS

• Johnson 33 mpg, 140/333 fg (42%), 26/75 threes (34%), 121/148 ft (81%), 4.5 reb, 4.5 ast, 1.1 st, 3.3 to, 16.5 pts
• Mgbako 32 mpg, 122/255 fg (48%), 31/75 threes (41%), 50/65 ft (78%), 6.2 reb, 1.2 ast, 0.9 st, 0.5 bs, 1.7 to, 12.4 pts
• Ware 29 mpg, 112/244 fg (45%), 16/47 threes (34%), 55/73 ft (76%), 7.6 reb, 1.7 ast, 1.2 st, 2.0 bs, 1.7 to, 11.3 pts
• Reneau 22 mpg, 99/161 fg (62%), 0/2 threes, 60/70 ft (83%), 6.2 reb, 0.8 ast, 0.7 st, 0.4 bs, 1.7 to, 10.0 pts
• Banks 18 mpg, 70/135 fg (52%), 11/28 threes (39%), 39/65 ft (60%), 3.3 reb, 0.6 ast, 0.8 st, 0.5 bs, 0.9 to, 7.4 pts
• Galloway 29 mpg, 60/146 fg (41%), 20/45 threes (44%), 19/31 ft (61%), 4.1 reb, 2.0 ast, 1.0 st, 0.2 bs, 0.9 to, 6.1 pts
• Sparks 13 mpg, 57/112 fg (51%), 22/49 ft (45%), 4.7 reb, 0.8 ast, 0.4 st, 0.3 bs, 1.5 to, 5.2 pts
• Cupps 16 mpg, 36/85 fg (42%), 12/34 threes (35%), 12/13 ft (92%), 1.2 reb, 0.9 ast, 0.6 st, 0.4 to, 3.7 pts
• Walker 8 mpg, 28/62 fg (45%), 11/15 ft (73%), 1.2 reb, 0.4 ast, 0.2 st, 0.4 to, 2.6 pts
• Newton 5 mpg, 18/41 fg (44%), 5/16 threes (31%), 2/7 ft (29%), 0.3 reb, 0.2 ast, 0.2 st, 0.2 to, 1.6 pts
• TOTALS  741/1573 fg (47%), 122/325 threes (37%), 390/536 ft (73%), 39.3 reb, 16.5 fouls, 13.0 ast, 7.1 st, 4.0 bs, 12.8 to, 76.7 pts
• OPP 673/1594 fg (42%), 148/473 threes (32%), 283/395 ft (72%), 35.1 reb, 18.8 fouls, 5.7 st, 2.8 bs, 13.9 to, 68.4 pts  

 

[Scotty R 3,674]

So how accurate has these sims been in the past 

[RaceToTheTop 31,063]

2 hours ago, Scotty R said:

So how accurate has these sims been in the past 

If, for instance, a team is a five point favorite and I simmed it thirty times, I think on average the results would have the team favored by five have an average plus point margin between three and seven.  But just like basketball, being the favorite doesn't mean winning all the time.  I would say a five point favorite would win about 65% of the games simmed.  I simmed quite a few games outside of the season of IU against Louisville on a neutral court;  I think IU is picked to win by 6 or 7 but they certainly lost some of the games I simmed.  Teams/players have good and bad sims.  IU has won some sims in the season set I've had where they won but were underdogs but have lost games where they were favored.  On average, the results are close to what I would have expected from the point spreads.

[RaceToTheTop 31,063]

Game 27:  Penn State at IU.  Slow start for IU and they trailed 29-27 at half.  Second half IU rallied to an easy win, 72-58.  IU is 18-9 and 10-6 in conference.

Penn State stats:  22/66 fg (33%), 8/17 threes (47%), 6/9 ft (67%), 38 reb, 20 fouls, 13 ast, 10 st, 5 bs, 16 to, 58 pts

IU stats

• Johnson 34 min, 5/11 fg, 0/3 threes, 8/9 ft, 6 reb, 2 fouls, 3 ast, 2 st, 3 to, 18 pts
• Galloway 32 min, 2/4 fg, 1/2 threes, 4/4 ft, 11 reb, 3 fouls, 9 pts, 3 ast, 2 st, 1 to, 9 pts
• Mgbako 32 min, 4/8 fg, 2/3 threes, 3/4 ft, 7 reb, 3 fouls, 2 ast, 1 st, 1 bs, 2 to, 13 pts
• Reneau 27 min, 4/7 fg, 3/4 ft, 4 reb, 0 fouls, 2 st, 2 bs, 1 to, 11 pts
• Ware 26 min, 2/7 fg, 0/2 threes, 0/1 ft, 7 reb, 3 fouls, 1 ast, 2 bs, 5 to, 4 pts
• Sparks 14 min, 4/6 fg, 3 reb, 2 fouls, 1 ast, 5 to, 8 pts
• Banks 14 min, 4/7 fg, 0/2 threes, 1/1 ft, 1 reb, 1 foul, 1 st, 9 pts
• Cupps 12 min, 0/3 fg, 0/2 threes, 1/1 ft, 1 reb, 1 foul, 1 st, 0 pts
• Newton 3 min, 0/1 fg, 1 foul, 0 pts
• Walker 7 min, 0/1 fg, 1 reb, 0 pts
• TOTALS  25/55 fg (45%), 3/14 threes (21%0, 19/23 ft (83%), 41 reb, 15 fouls, 10 ast, 8 st, 5 bs, 17 to, 72 pts

[RaceToTheTop 31,063]

Game 28:  IU at Ohio State.  Buckeyes favored by 2.  Good back and forth game with IU winning 78-74.  IU moves to 19-9 and 11-6

Ohio State stats:  29/67 fg (43%), 4/14 threes (29%), 12/17 ft (71%), 39 reb, 19 rouls, 16 ast, 4 st, 4 bs, 10 to, 74 pts

IU stats

• Johnson 33 min, 6/12 fg, 3/4 threes, 7/8 ft, 7 reb, 4 fouls, 3 ast, 2 st, 2 to, 22 pts
• Galloway 28 min, 4/6 fg, 0/2 threes, 2/2 ft, 3 reb, 2 fouls, 2 ast, 2 st, 1 to, 10 pts
• Mgbako 31 min, 3/12 fg, 1/4 threes, 7 reb, 1 foul, 2 bs, 1 to, 7 pts
• Reneau 21 min, 4/7 fg, 2/2 ft, 5 reb, 3 fouls, 1 ast, 2 bs, 1 to, 10 pts
• Ware 28 min, 3/10 fg, 1/1 threes, 0/3 ft, 11 reb, 1 ast, 2 st, 2 bs, 2 to, 7 pts
• Sparks 12 min, 1/3 fg, 2/2 ft, 4 reb, 2 fouls, 1 ast, 1 bs, 1 to, 4 pts
• Banks 19 min, 2/6 fg, 1/1 threes, 4/4 ft, 4 reb, 2 fouls, 2 to, 9 pts
• Cupps 15 min, 2/3 fg, 1/2 threes, 2 fouls, 1 ast, 1 st, 5 pts
• Newton 6 min, 0/2 fg, 0/1 threes, 2 fouls ,1 ast, 1 st, 0 pts
• Walker 7 min, 1/2 fg, 2/2 ft, 4 pts
• TOTALS 26/63 fg (41%), 7/15 threes (47%), 19/23 ft (83%), 41 reb, 18 fouls, 9 ast, 7 st, 7 bs, 10 to, 78 pts

IU season totals

• Johnson 33 mpg, 154/356 fg (43%), 31/87 threes (35%), 137/165 ft (82%), 4.6 reb, 4.4 ast, 1.2 st, 3.3 to, 16.7 pts
• Mgbako 32 mpg, 129/274 fg (47%), 34/84 threes (41%), 53/67 ft (83%), 6.2 reb, 1.2 ast, 0.9 st, 0.6 bs, 1.7 to, 12.2 pts
• Ware 28 mpg, 115/260  fg (44%), 17/50 threes (34%), 56/76 ft (72%), 7.7 reb, 1.6 ast, 1.1 st, 2.0 bs, 1.9 to,  10.9 pts
• Reneau 22 mpg, 109/176 fg (61%), 0/2 threes (0%), 64/76 ft (83%), 6.1 reb, 0.8 ast, 0.7 st, 0.5 bs, 1.7 to, 10.0 pts
• Banks 18 mpg, 76/148 fg (52%), 12/31 threes (39%), 45/71 ft (63%), 3.3 reb, 0.6 ast, 0.8 st, 0.4 bs, 0.9 to, 7.5 pts
• Galloway 29 mpg, 67/154 fg (43%), 21/49 threes (43%), 24/35 ft (68%), 4.3 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.1 st, 0.2 bs, 0.9 to, 6.4 pts
• Sparks 13 mpg, 62/120 fg (52%), 24/51 ft (47%), 4.6 reb, 0.8 ast, 0.4 st, 0.3 bs, 1.6 to, 5.3 pts
• Cupps 16 pg, 38/92 fg (41%), 14/41 threes (34%), 12/13 ft (92%), 1.2 reb, 0.9 ast, 0.6 st, 0.4 to, 3.6 pts
• Walker 8 mpg, 28/64 fg (45%), 13/17 ft (76%), 1.1 reb, 0.4 ast, 0.2 st, 0.4 to, 2.5 pts
• Newton 5 mpg, 18/44 fg (41%), 4/14 threes (29%), 2/7 ft (29%), 0.2 reb, 0.2 ast, 0.1 st, 0.2 to, 1.5 pts

[RaceToTheTop 31,063]

Game 29:  Nebraska at IU.  IU controlled the first half but Nebraska put on a run at the end to close to within 40-36.  The second half was IU's worst played of the year and IU dropped the game 77-71.  IU's record now stands at 19-10 and 11-7 with a road game at Minnesota and a home game against Maryland left.

Nebraska stats:  28/65 fg (43%), 10/24 threes (42%), 11/15 ft (73%), 39 reb, 9 fouls, 13 ast, 8 st, 1 bs, 10 to, 77 pts

IU stats:

• Johnson 33 min, 6/19 fg, 2/5 threes, 6 reb, 1 foul, 1 st, 1 to, 14 pts
• Galloway 30 min, 3/6 fg, 1/2 threes, 9 reb, 2 fouls, 1 ast, 3 to, 7 pts
• Mgbako 32 min, 6/12 fg, 1/2 threes, 2 reb, 4 fouls, 2 ast, 1 st, 2 bs, 1 to, 13 pts
• Reneau 24 min, 6/9 fg, 0/1 threes, 2/2 ft, 6 reb, 4 fouls, 1 st, 1 bs, 2 to, 14 pts
• Ware 27 min, 3/8 fg, 1/3 threes, 2/2 ft, 10 reb, 1 foul, 2 ast, 2 bs, 5 to, 9 pts
• Sparks 13 min, 4/8 fg, 3 reb, 2 ast, 1 st, 1 bs, 8 pts
• Banks 17 min, 1/3 fg, 3 fouls, 1 bs, 1 to, 2 pts
• Cupps 14 min, 1/1 fg, 1 ast, 2 pts
• Newton 3 min, 0/1 fg, 2 reb, 1 ast, 0 pts
• Walker 7 min, 1/2 fg, 1 reb, 2 pts
• TOTALS 31/69 fg (45%), 5/13 threes (38%), 4/4 ft (100%), 39 reb, 15 fouls, 9 ast, 4 st, 7 bs, 13 to, 71 pts

[RaceToTheTop 31,063]

Game 30:  IU at Minnesota.  IU wins 84-76.  WIth one game left, IU is 20-10 and 12-7.

Minnesota stats:  29/59 fg (49%), 11/26 threes (42%), 7/11 ft (64%), 26 reb, 21 fouls, 15 ast, 8 st, 1 bs, 18 to, 76 pts

IU stats

• Johnson 34 min, 7/14 fg, 1/4 threes, 8/8 ft, 4 reb, 3 ast, 3 st, 5 to, 23 pts
• Galloway 28 min, 4/6 fg, 3/3 threes, 1/4 ft, 2 reb, 3 fouls, 1 ast, 1 st, 1 to, 12 pts
• Mgbako 33 min, 5/8 fg, 2/3 threes, 7/11 ft, 4 reb, 3 fouls, 4 st, 1 to, 19 pts
• Reneau 23 min, 4/6 fg, 10 reb, 1 foul, 1 st, 1 to, 8 pts
• Ware 28 min, 3/8 fg, 0/2 threes, 4/4 ft, 10 reb, 2 fouls, 1 st, 3 bs, 4 to, 10 pts
• Sparks 13 min, 1/3 fg, 1 reb, 1 foul, 3 ast, 2 to, 2 pts
• Banks 18 min, 1/2 fg, 0/1 threes, 4 reb, 1 foul, 1 ast, 2 to, 2 pts
• Cupps 15 min, 2/3 fg, 2 fouls, 4 pts
• Newton 5 min, 1/1 fg, 1 to, 2 pts
• Walker 7 min, 1/2 fg, 1 to, 2 pts
• TOTALS 29/53 fg (55%), 6/13 threes (46%), 20/27 ft (74%), 35 reb, 13 fouls, 8 ast, 10 st, 3 bs, 18 to, 84 pts

[RaceToTheTop 31,063]

Game 31:  final regular season game, Maryland at IU.  Successful senior night as IU wins easily and Xavier Johnson went for a career high 28 points.

Maryland stats:  21/58 fg (36%), 3/16 threes (19%), 15/20 ft (75%), 30 reb, 19 fouls, 12 ast, 4 st, 14 to, 60 pts

IU stats

• Johnson 36 min, 7/13 fg, 0/1 threes, 14/14 ft, 6 reb, 3 fouls, 5 ast, 2 st, 6 to, 28 pts
• Galloway 26 min, 2/5 fg, 1/2 threes, 5 reb, 3 fouls, 3 ast, 1 st, 1 to, 5 pts
• Mgbako 32 min, 2/8 fg, 1/2 threes, 1/2 ft, 4 reb, 3 fouls, 2 ast, 4 st, 2 to, 6 pts
• Reneau 24 min, 4/6 fg, 1/2 ft, 5 reb, 4 fouls, 1 bs, 2 to, 9 pts
• Ware 28 min, 4/10 fg, 0/1 threes, 0/1 ft, 9 reb, 2 fouls, 1 ast, 2 bs, 8 pts
• Sparks 12 min, 2/2 fg, 9 reb, 1 foul, 1 ast, 1 bs, 1 to, 4 pts
• Banks 17 ming, 6/7 fg, 1/1 threes, 5 reb, 3 fouls, 1 bs, 13 pts
• Cupps 16 min, 1/5 fg, 1/3 threes, 1 reb, 1 ast, 3 pts
• Newton 2 min, 1/3 fg, 0/1 threes, 2 pts
• Walker 8 min, 0/2 fg, 0/2 ft, 1 foul, 1 ast, 0 pts
• IU totals 29/61 fg (48%), 4/11 threes (36%), 16/21 ft (76%), 44 reb ,20 fouls, 14 ast, 7 st, 5 bs, 12 to, 78 pts
•  

[lillurk 5,107]

13-7…probably a BTT double bye. No big wins, probably capped at a ~6 or 7 seed unless you win it and beat MSU and PU on the way.

[RaceToTheTop 31,063]

Final record:  IU 21-10, Big Ten record 13-7.

Final team stats

• Johnson 33 mpg, 171/400 fg (43%), 33/96 threes (34%), 158/189 ft (84%), 4.7 reb, 4.2 ast, 1.3 st, 3.4 to, 17.2 pts
• Mgbako 32 mpg, 140/301 fg (47%), 37/89 threes (42%), 62/81 ft (75%), 6.0 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.1 st, 0.6 bs, 1.6 to, 12.3 pts
• Ware 29 mpg, 127/288 fg (44%), 19/58 threes (32%), 62/84 ft (73%), 7.9 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.1 st, 2.0 bs, 2.0 to, 10.7 pts
• Reneau 22 mpg, 120/198 fg (62%), 0/3 threes (0%), 68/81 ft (83%), 6.2 reb, 0.7 ast, 0.7 st, 0.5 bs, 1.7 to, 10.0 pts
• Banks 18 mpg, 84/161 fg (53%), 13/34 threes (39%), 44/70 ft (63%), 3.3 reb, 0.5 ast, 0.7 st, 0.5 bs, 0.9 to, 7.3 pts
• Galloway 29 mpg, 74/170 fg (44%), 25/54 threes (46%), 25/40 ft (63%), 4.4 reb, 2.0 ast, 1.0 st, 0.2 bs, 1.0 to, 6.5 pts
• Sparks 13 mpg, 68/132 fg (52%), 24/51 ft (47%), 4.5 reb, 0.9 ast, 0.4 st, 0.3 bs, 1.5 to, 5.2 pts
• Cupps 16 mpg, 43/102 fg (42%), 14/41 threes (34%), 12/13 ft (92%), 1.1 reb, 0.8 ast, 0.5 st, 0.3 to, 3.5 pts
• Walker 8 mpg, 31/71 fg (44%), 13/19 ft (68%), 1.1 reb, 0.4 ast, 0.2 st, 0.4 to, 2.4 pts
• Newton 5 mpg, 20/49 fg (41%), 4/14 threes (29%), 2/7 ft (29%), 0.3 reb, 0.2 ast, 0.1 st, 0.2 to, 1.5 pts

[RaceToTheTop 31,063]

5 minutes ago, lillurk said:

13-7…probably a BTT double bye. No big wins, probably capped at a ~6 or 7 seed unless you win it and beat MSU and PU on the way.

I will say the Big Ten schedule next year compared to last year was noticably helpful.  Only one game against Michigan State and Illinois is helpful.

[Scotty R 3,674]

12 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

If, for instance, a team is a five point favorite and I simmed it thirty times, I think on average the results would have the team favored by five have an average plus point margin between three and seven.  But just like basketball, being the favorite doesn't mean winning all the time.  I would say a five point favorite would win about 65% of the games simmed.  I simmed quite a few games outside of the season of IU against Louisville on a neutral court;  I think IU is picked to win by 6 or 7 but they certainly lost some of the games I simmed.  Teams/players have good and bad sims.  IU has won some sims in the season set I've had where they won but were underdogs but have lost games where they were favored.  On average, the results are close to what I would have expected from the point spreads.

I was more talking about team records at the end of the season 

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46 minutes ago, Scotty R said:

I was more talking about team records at the end of the season 

I haven’t ever done a project like this where I projected a team’s stats so I can’t say.  Using the actual stats it is pretty accurate