PC Stellar basketball IU at Iowa sims

[RaceToTheTop]

PC stellar sims do not like this matchup.  One caveat -- the team creator tends to overrank the ability of teams that push tempo to rebound since their raw rebounding numbers are high due to the number of shots taken.  Even so, PC stellar doesn't like IU in this one.

In 20 sims, IU won only 3.  Average score was Iowa 80.5, IU 71.5.

Team stats:

IU:  554 out of 1336 from the field (41%), 130 out of 360 from three (36%), 192 out of 266 from the line (73%), 42.2 reb/game, 13.6 turnover/game

Iowa:  600 out of 1416 from the field (42%), 160 out of 456 from three (35%) 252 out of 314 from the line (81%)m 42,2 reb/game, 9.3 turnover/game

IU stats:

TJD:  34 min/game, 45% from the field, 62% ft, 11.8 reb/game, 3.1 blocks/game, 2.4 to/game, 15.7 ppg

Johnson:  24 min/game, 41% from the field, 38% from three, 81% ft, 4.2 reb/game, 4.9 ast/game, 1.8 to/game, 11.0 ppg

Stewart:  25 min/gme, 47% fg, 48% threes, 75% ft, 1.9 reb/game, 10.1 ppg

Kopp:  28 mpg, 38% fg, 29% three, 100% ft, 3.5 reb, 9.5 ppg

Thompson:  27 mpg, 43% fg, 79% ft, 9.9 reb/game, 1.8 ast.game, 2.0 to/game, 7.9 ppg

PhinL  16 mpg, 34% fg, 34% threes, 30% ftm 2,3 reb/game, 1.6 ast.game, 4.5 ppg

Bates:  17 mpg, 36% fgm 26% threesm 80% ftm 1,7 reb.game, 4.5 ppg

Galloway:  12 mpg, 44% fg, 0/1 from three, 95% ft, 2.2 reb/game, 1.4 apg, 4.4 ppg

Geronimo:  12 mpg, 38% fgm 33% threes, 33% ft, 3.5 rpg, 2.7 ppg

Durr:  6 mpg, 33% fg, 80% ft, 0.9 reb/game, 1.0 ppg

[MikeRoberts]

Hmm, that’s interesting because IU has not played well away from home but at the same time, IU has been pretty solid against Iowa in recent years.

 

we shall see

[RaceToTheTop]

21 minutes ago, MikeRoberts said:

Hmm, that’s interesting because IU has not played well away from home but at the same time, IU has been pretty solid against Iowa in recent years.

 

we shall see

Yeah, certainly hope the sims are wrong.  I can't see the rebounding being even which is why I mentioned the issue with PC Stellar overranking rebounding for teams that push tempo.  But that's may a 3, 4 point difference at most.

In watching the sims the thing I noticed was that IU would have some decent scoreless issues but Iowa never did.  And with the amount of threes Iowa shoots, there were cases where they made up quite a few points quickly.  That and Iowa is so good from the line.

[MikeRoberts]

Sounds like we need to guard the 3 and not foul. Easier said than done

[HoosierAloha]

Sounds like we need to guard the 3 and not foul. Easier said than done

Especially on the road in the Big 1.o with FranCon 5 imminent


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[HoosierHoopster]

It's an interesting sim for sure. 

It's at home offense (Iowa now KenPom Adj O #3) vs. road defense (IN now KenPom Adj D 11). Seems like home offense often wins against road D, and Iowa can put up points in bunches.

On the flip side IU's offense is now better (KenPom Adj O 70), and with Galloway back I think that continues to climb (and think we'll see Bates get back in his groove, after missed time, hasn't been his best since due to all the personal things he's been dealing with, kind of a dark horse to have an explosive game) -- and Iowa's D (now Adj D 155) just aint very good.

I tend to think this is going to be a real back and forth dogfight, with some real runs. 

It's hard for a sim to factor in things like Galloway's recent return, Bates being down, right? (I'm no sim specialist.)

Also, the team now has some real confidence after the solid, convincing home wins over OSU and Minn, and maybe, just maybe, it's ready to get over the top on the road. (assuming Woody wears a suit of course)

[HoosierAloha]

20 minutes ago, HoosierHoopster said:

It's an interesting sim for sure. 

It's at home offense (Iowa now KenPom Adj O #3) vs. road defense (IN now KenPom Adj D 11). Seems like home offense often wins against road D, and Iowa can put up points in bunches.

On the flip side IU's offense is now better (KenPom Adj O 70), and with Galloway back I think that continues to climb (and think we'll see Bates get back in his groove, after missed time, hasn't been his best since due to all the personal things he's been dealing with, kind of a dark horse to have an explosive game) -- and Iowa's D (now Adj D 155) just aint very good.

I tend to think this is going to be a real back and forth dogfight, with some real runs. 

It's hard for a sim to factor in things like Galloway's recent return, Bates being down, right? (I'm no sim specialist.)

Also, the team now has some real confidence after the solid, convincing home wins over OSU and Minn, and maybe, just maybe, it's ready to get over the top on the road. (assuming Woody wears a suit of course)

Least we forget they had a meeting after the PSU game to readdress the lack of intensity and listening to coach Woodson. Although, I'm not sure the lack of intensity was ever really a problem. How to calculate that meeting into sims?

[RaceToTheTop]

10 hours ago, HoosierHoopster said:

It's an interesting sim for sure. 

It's at home offense (Iowa now KenPom Adj O #3) vs. road defense (IN now KenPom Adj D 11). Seems like home offense often wins against road D, and Iowa can put up points in bunches.

On the flip side IU's offense is now better (KenPom Adj O 70), and with Galloway back I think that continues to climb (and think we'll see Bates get back in his groove, after missed time, hasn't been his best since due to all the personal things he's been dealing with, kind of a dark horse to have an explosive game) -- and Iowa's D (now Adj D 155) just aint very good.

I tend to think this is going to be a real back and forth dogfight, with some real runs. 

It's hard for a sim to factor in things like Galloway's recent return, Bates being down, right? (I'm no sim specialist.)

Also, the team now has some real confidence after the solid, convincing home wins over OSU and Minn, and maybe, just maybe, it's ready to get over the top on the road. (assuming Woody wears a suit of course)

The sim is just going to plug in numbers, so a player is who he is statistically at the time I plug them in.  It certainly isn't going to look at things like if a player is a hot streak, cold streak, provides a spark, etc.

The rebounding, IMO is key.  I do think the sim overrates a team's ability to rebound if they push tempo in real life.  But if IU doesn't win the rebounding battle it's likely an uphill climb to get as many shots up as Iowa because IU -- at least based on the numbers for the year -- is going to turn it over more than Iowa.  

An area that I noticed IU struggling with was quickly losing a lead -- Iowa just seemed more capable of getting back-to-back scoress than IU because they don't turn it over and they are deadly from the line.  IU had quite a few games where they got up early and they lead got cut very quickly.  When Iowa got up early, if IU came back it seemed to take a much longer time.