Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier]

1 minute ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

How are you feeling about South Florida? I imagine they probably still have to win their conference tourney but you gotta admit, pretty wild they've won 16 of 17. And up 11 on FAU right now.

Great story and  Abdur-Rahim is a great young coach doing great things in his first year at South Florida.  He came from Kennesaw St last year after leading them to the tourney.   They have no shot at an at-large.   10 wins against NET +200 and 2 losses against NET +200.  They only played 1 Q1 game so far and a SOS 253 and a Non con SOS of 332 that won’t get it done.    They can play.   I hope they win the conference tourney 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

1 minute ago, Uspshoosier said:

Great story and  Abdur-Rahim is a great young coach doing great things in his first year at South Florida.  He came from Kennesaw St last year after leading them to the tourney.   They have no shot at an at-large.   10 wins against NET +200 and 2 losses against NET +200.  They only played 1 Q1 game so far and a SOS 253 and a Non con SOS of 332 that won’t get it done.    They can play.   I hope they win the conference tourney 

That Kennesaw State team from last season was pretty good. They were a popular pick for a 1st round upset. South Florida could possibly be in the same situation if they win their tourney and sit in that 12-13 seed area.

[RaceToTheTop]

No games left on today's docket will change my top 25 WAR, so here is Monday morning's top 25 WAR (last week in parentheses):

1. (1) Purdue 23-3, WAR +8.35
2. (2) U Conn 24-2, WAR +8.08
3. (3) Houston 22-3, WAR +7.03
4. (4) Arizona 20-5, WAR +6.33
5. (7) Marquette 19-6, WAR +5.41
6. (8) Kansas 19-6, WAR +5.12
7. (5) UNC 20-6, WAR +5.03
8. (9) Tennessee 19-6, WAR +4.90
9. (10) Alabama 18-7, WAR +4.81
10. (14) San Diego St 18-6, WAR +4.76
11. (17) owa State 20-5, WAR +4.70
12. (11) Dayton 21-4, WAR +4.64
13. (18) Illinois 19-6, WAR,+4.54
14. (15) Baylor 18-6, WAR +4.52
15. (6) South Carolina 21-5, WAR +4.20
16. (22) Duke 20-5, WAR +4.17
17. (13) Auburn 20-6,  WAR +4.14
18. (UR) Utah State 19-5, WAR +3.67
19. (16) Mississippi 19-6, WAR +3.55
20. (20) Colorado State 18-6, WAR +3.51
21. (21) Grand Canyon, 23-2, WAR +3.50
22. (UR) Creighton 19-7, WAR +3.44
23. (UR) Florida 18-7, WAR +3.41
24. (UR) Texas Tech 18-7, WAR +3.38
25. (19) Virginia 20-6, WAR +3.31

Close:  Washington State 20-6, WAR +3.15, Wisconsin 17-9, WAR +3.13, Clemson 17-8, WAR 2.83, Kentucky 18-7, WAR +2.76, New Mexico 19-6, WAR +2.70, Michigan State 17-9, WAR +2.70

Exited poll: Indiana State (12), Clemson (23), Oklahoma (24), Wisconsin (25)

[Uspshoosier]

 IU failed to beat a tournament quality team at home.   As of now IU is basically a quality road win for bottom of the bracket teams trying to improve their resume.   Massive road win for Northwestern.  Q2 road win for them.   Before today their only road wins were Penn St and DePaul.    Nebraska is next up who has struggled on the road.  1-7 on the road and winless on the road in conference.   

[RaceToTheTop]

WAR multiple bid tournament conference (note that Florida Atlantic is the only tournament quality team I have rated for C USA, I am not listing them as a two bid league because the regular season conference title doesn't get you in.  But if someone else won the conference tournament, I still have FAU in).  Overall team WAR ranking in parenthesis.

Big 12 (9):  Houston (3), Kansas (6), Iowa State (11), Baylor (14), Texas Tech (24), TCU (36), BYU (37), Oklahoma (38), Texas (48)

SEC (8):  Tennessee (8), Alabama (9), South Carolina (15), Auburn (17), Mississippi (19), Florida (23), Kentucky (29), Mississippi St (41)

Big 10 (6):  Purdue (1), Illinois (13), Wisconsin (27), Michigan State (31), Northwestern (34), Nebraska (40).

MWC (6):  San Diego State (10), Utah State (18), Colorado State (20), New Mexico (30), Nevada (32), Boise State (45)

Big East (5):  U Conn (2), Marquette (5), Creighton (22), Seton Hall (47), Butler (50)

ACC (4):  UNC (7), Duke (16), Virginia (25), Clemson (28) 

Pac 12 (4):  Arizona (4), Washington State (26), Oregon (46), Utah (49)

MVC (2):  Indiana State (33), Drake (39)

Last four byes:  Nebraska, Mississippi State, Boise State, Oregon

Last four in:  Seton Hall, Texas, Utah, Butler

First four out:  Gonzaga, Colorado, Providence, Cincinnati

Next four out:  Syracuse, Texas A&M, Memphis, Wake Forest

 

 

 

[Uspshoosier]

Net already updated for tomorrow.  IU dropped 3 spots to 101.   Buckeyes gained 8 spots to 64 by beating Purdue. 

[IUHoosierJoe]

I'll add my computer ratings, includes all D-I games through 2/18:

1	Purdue				23	-	3		(	1	)
2	Houston				22	-	3		(	2	)
3	Arizona				20	-	5		(	3	)
4	Connecticut				24	-	2		(	4	)
5	Alabama				18	-	7		(	5	)
6	Tennessee				19	-	6		(	8	)
7	Iowa St				20	-	5		(	7	)
8	Auburn				20	-	6		(	6	)
9	North Carolina				20	-	6		(	9	)
10	Illinois				19	-	6		(	13	)
11	Baylor				18	-	6		(	14	)
12	Marquette				19	-	6		(	11	)
13	San Diego St				18	-	6		(	17	)
14	BYU				18	-	7		(	10	)
15	Duke				20	-	5		(	19	)
16	Creighton				19	-	7		(	18	)
17	Kansas				19	-	6		(	12	)
18	New Mexico				19	-	6		(	15	)
19	Dayton				21	-	4		(	21	)
20	Colorado St				18	-	6		(	22	)
21	Michigan St				17	-	9		(	25	)
22	Utah St				19	-	5		(	20	)
23	St Mary's CA				20	-	6		(	--	)
24	Kentucky				18	-	7		(	--	)
25	Gonzaga				19	-	6		(	--	)

[Uspshoosier]

Who you taking?

Team A

NET- in the 30s 

Q1- 1-3

Q2- 3-1

Q3- 8-0

Q4- 9-1

SOR- 39

KP- 49

SOS- 122

Non con SOS-165

Team B

NET- in the 50’s 

Q1- 4-6

Q2- 3-3

Q3-  none

Q4- 10-0

SOR- 47

KP- 56

SOS- 57

Non con SOS- 241

[Uspshoosier]

5 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Who you taking?

Team A

NET- in the 30s 

Q1- 1-3

Q2- 3-1

Q3- 8-0

Q4- 9-1

SOR- 39

KP- 49

SOS- 122

Non con SOS-165

Team B

NET- in the 50’s 

Q1- 4-6

Q2- 3-3

Q3-  none

Q4- 10-0

SOR- 47

KP- 56

SOS- 57

Non con SOS- 241

Team C 

NET- in the 60s 

Q1- 3-5

Q2- 2-1

Q3- 5-0

Q4- 5-0

SOR- 21

KP- 68

SOS-76

Non con Sos- 327

[LIHoosier]

I'd take Team B slightly, team A looks like Indiana St, Team C had their schedule made by Seth Greenberg

[Uspshoosier]

20 minutes ago, LIHoosier said:

I'd take Team B slightly, team A looks like Indiana St, Team C had their schedule made by Seth Greenberg

Yeah Team A is Indiana St with Team B is Providence and Team C being Ole Miss.   Providence and Ole Miss are hanging around the Last 4 in category.   Just wanted to show how hard it is for mid major teams to get in the discussion.  Less chances at higher Q1 wins and even with better metrics and SOS still hard to get in discussion.   1 bad loss for them and it’s almost lights out.    

[RaceToTheTop]

WAR through Sunday's games:

1. Purdue 25-3 WAR +10.07
2. Houston 24-3 WAR +8.59
3. U Conn 25-3 WAR +8.28
4. Arizona 21-6 WAR +6.27
5. Marquette 21-6 WAR +5.87
6. UNC 21-6 WAR +5.76
7. Tennessee 21-6 WAR +5.68
8. Kansas 20-6 WAR +5.62
9. Alabama 19-8 WAR +5.20
10. Iowa State 21-6 WAR +4.76
11. South Carolina 22-5 WAR +4.74
12. Auburn 21-6 WAR +4.63
13. Duke 21-6 WAR +4.60
14. San Diego State 19-7 WAR +4.49
15. Illinois 20-7 WAR +4.35
16. Dayton 21-5 WAR +4.16
17. Utah State 20-5 WAR +4.15
18. Creighton 20-8 WAR +3.98
19. Baylor 18-8 WAR +3.92
20. Wisconsin 18-9 WAR +3.58
21. Clemson 19-8 WAR +3.57
22. Washington State 21-7 WAR +3.48
23. Florida 19-8 WAR +3.44
24. Texas Tech 19-8 WAR +3.30
25. Indiana State 23-5 WAR +3.02

Close:  Nebraska 20-8 WAR +3.00, Mississippi State 19-8 WAR +2.88, Nevada 21-6 WAR +2.87, Northwestern 19-8 WAR +2.83, Kentucky 18-8 WAR +2.82.

Multiple big leagues (using the assumption that the team with the best WAR wins the conference tournament):

Big 12 (8):  Houston (2), Kansas (8), Iowa State (10), Baylor (19), Texas Tech (24), Oklahoma (31), TCU (36), BYU (38)

SEC (8):  Tennessee (7), Alabama (9), South Carolina (11), Auburn (12), Florida (23), Mississippi St (27), Kentucky (30), Mississippi (33)

Big 10 (6):  Purdue (1), Illinois (15), Wisconsin (20), Nebraska (26), Northwestern (29), Michigan State (51)

Mountain West (6):  San Diego State (14), Utah State (17), Nevada (28), Colorado State (32), New Mexico (39), Boise State (42)

ACC (6):  UNC (6), Duke (13), Clemson (21), Virginia (35), Wake Forest (49), Syracuse (50)

Big East (5):  U Conn (3), Marquette (5), Creighton (18), Seton Hall (44), Providence (48)

Pac 12 (2):  Arizona (4), Washington State (22)

WCC (2):  St. Mary's (34), Gonzaga (47)

MVC (2):  Indiana State (25), Drake (45)

-------------

Last four byes:  Seton Hall, Drake, Gonzaga, Providence

Last four in:  Providence, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Michigan State

First four out:  Texas, Colorado, Oregon, Memphis

Next four out:  South Florida, Utah, Kansas State, Butler

 

 

 

 

[Uspshoosier]

I wasn’t going to post any IU related team resume here anymore since they had no chance of an at-large bid anymore and I didn’t want to rub salt in the wound  but since the coach said they need to win the last 4 and couple games in the BTT to have a chance I felt the need to lay it out and point out that isn’t going to happen 

 

IU

14-13

NET-108

Sor and KPI are results based 

SOR-83

KPI-94

predictive metric 

BPI-110

Kenpom-105

O wins against any projected tourney team 

Q1- (1-8)

Q2-(4-4)

Q3-(3-1)

Q4-(6-0)

The last 4 games there is only 1 game against a sure fire tourney team (Wisky) and 1 against a bubble team at home (Sparty).    The 2 road games are against non tourney teams.  Even if they win all 4 games their metrics are so bad that they will not be anywhere close  to where they need to be.  Other teams with better metrics and wins will easily be a head of them.   IU is 8-13 against the top 3 Quads(teams with pulses).  Normally you need a winning record against the top 3 quads to even be considered as an at-large team.  By the time they won enough games to be considered as an at-large they will have won the BTT for the auto bid.    The way this season went for IU the only bracketology use for IU is them being a get right road game for tourney teams struggling.  They will be a Q2  road win for those teams.   Only positive on IUs team sheet is their SOS which is 22.  Coaches are going to spin what they have to and believe it or not some coaches don’t feel the need to pay attention to Bracketology but saying they have a chance this late  in the year is kind of ridiculous.  

[Uspshoosier]

If South Florida stays in the top 25 and they lose in their conference tourney then you can add them to the small list of teams that would be a top 25 team to not get an at-large bid 

[RaceToTheTop]

19 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

If South Florida stays in the top 25 and they lose in their conference tourney then you can add them to the small list of teams that would be a top 25 team to not get an at-large bid 

Just looked at their resume and was shocked to see right now they haven’t played a single quad 1 game.

[RaceToTheTop]

@IUHoosierJoeHave you updated your ratings?

[IUHoosierJoe]

1 minute ago, RaceToTheTop said:

@IUHoosierJoeHave you updated your ratings?

Yes, here they are.  Forgot to post...

1	Houston		24	-	3		(	2	)
2	Purdue		25	-	3		(	1	)
3	Arizona		21	-	6		(	3	)
4	Connecticut		25	-	3		(	4	)
5	Tennessee		21	-	6		(	6	)
6	Alabama		19	-	8		(	5	)
7	Auburn		21	-	6		(	8	)
8	North Carolina		21	-	6		(	9	)
9	Iowa St		21	-	6		(	7	)
10	Marquette		21	-	6		(	12	)
11	Duke		21	-	6		(	15	)
12	Kansas		20	-	6		(	17	)
13	Illinois		20	-	7		(	10	)
14	San Diego St		19	-	7		(	13	)
15	Creighton		20	-	8		(	16	)
16	Baylor		18	-	8		(	11	)
17	BYU		19	-	8		(	14	)
18	New Mexico		20	-	7		(	18	)
19	Utah St		20	-	5		(	22	)
20	Kentucky		19	-	8		(	24	)
21	Clemson		19	-	8		(	27	)
22	Dayton		21	-	5		(	19	)
23	St Mary's CA		22	-	6		(	23	)
24	Colorado St		18	-	8		(	20	)
25	Gonzaga		21	-	6		(	25	)

[RaceToTheTop]

Combined Chicken/Joe/WAR poll through Sunday's games

• 1.  Houston (2)  24-3 (74 pts)
• 2.  Purdue (1) 25-3 (73)
• 3.  U Conn 25-3 (67)
• 4.  Arizona 21-6 (66)
• 5.  Tennessee 21-6 (63)
• 6T. Marquette 21-6 (55)
• 6T. UNC 21-6 (55)
• 8T. Kansas 20-6 (52)
• 8T. Auburn 21-6 (52)
• 10. Iowa State 21-6 (48)
• 11. Alabama 19-8 (45)
• 12. Duke 21-6 (44)
• 13. Illinois 20-7 (34)
• 14. Baylor 18-8 (31)
• 15. South Carolina 22-5 (28)
• 16. San Diego State 19-7 (24)
• 17. Utah State 20-5 (22)
• 18. Creighton 20-8 (19)
• 19. Kentucky 18-8 (17)
• 20. Dayton 21-5 (16)
• 21. St. Mary's 22-6 (15)
• 22. Clemson 19-8 (10)
• 23T. Oklahoma 19-8 (9)
• 23T. BYU 19-8 (9)
• 25. New Mexico 20-7 (8)

Also receiving points:  Nebraska 20-8 (7), Wisconsin 18-9 (6), Texas Tech 19-8 (6), Washington State 21-7 (5), South Florida 21-5 (5), Florida 19-8 (3), TCU 19-8 (3), Colorado State 18-8 (2), Indiana State 23-5 (1), Gonzaga 21-6 (1).

[RaceToTheTop]

Interesting.....Wisconsin's NET ranking remained unchanged at 22 after the IU game.  Quad 2 loss for them, I assumed they would have dropped a couple of spots.  It was a quad one win for IU but only moved them up 2 spots from 107 to 105.

[RaceToTheTop]

On 2/26/2024 at 4:56 PM, RaceToTheTop said:

Just looked at their resume and was shocked to see right now they haven’t played a single quad 1 game.

Double checked South Florida's remaining schedule....will be one quad 2 and two quad 3 games, so they will end the regular season with no quad 1 games UNLESS Memphis moves into the top 75 (they are currently 79).